Am I the only one worried about what seems to be this nagging feeling that the hi-def format might actually flop? As an avid supporter of HD in general, it's about the movies for me, not whether they're on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. But there are those out there who either support one format and leave the other to its own devices, or won't support either format until there's a clear winner. One day someone is saying that Blu-Ray is leading sales; the next day, someone else is touting HD-DVD as the leader. And from the looks of it, things aren't going to get any better anytime soon, what with another hi-def format on its way from overseas (Not that VMD has a lot going for it, but I foresee even more confusion if titles and/or players start popping up in stores). I would hate to think that the actual losers of this format war might be the consumers who have tasted the wonders of HD on disc, only to lose it sometime down the road.

How can something flop that hasn't been out for a year yet?

It may well be as much of a flop as Laserdisc, but I can live with that.

Whether it be now or 5 years from now, if companies produce cheap HD movies, people will buy them....unless they continue to make cheaper SD alternatives.

At this point, I think both formats could die and be replaced by something else. I recently bought the HD-A2 with the Amazon 3 + 5 deal and was able to return my standard upconverting DVD player to Costco...so my "upgrade" cost was about $50. (excluding the movie I kept - 300 and the other 5 free ones)

So I don't feel bad if it HD-DVD flops, I get a better upconverting player ...although the startup time is pretty bad IMHO

I'll jump in when my current player dies. At this point 480p is good enough for me. Being an early adopter I have a 6 year old tv without hdmi. I'd estimate it'll be another 3-5 years before I'm willing to re-invest in a whole new setup.

I don't know, but he is talking about Blu-Ray and HD DVD, both of which have been out for over a year.

Sounds a bit too much "Chicken Little" at this point. I don't see much actual evidence to support this hypothesis.

Too be honest, I see hi-def media more mainstream than laserdisc ever was. I've seen more commercials for blu-ray and hd-dvd than I did for laserdiscs.

If HD flops, well I still have all those beautiful movies to watch. The only thing I would be worried about is another even better format coming out.

Just want to make sure you know both formats work over component up to 1080i...

Unless they decide to flip the HDCP switch, that is.

the potential collapse of Hi Def Discs...

yeah, I don't see this whole HD thing really catching on and sticking.
I give it two more years and then it's back to standard defintion and NTSC

VHS will actually return once these silly "disc" formats fade away.

I think it's much too early to count Beta out of the race . . .

Exactly what I was going to say. DVD killed both VHS and Laserdisc but it took awhile for that to happen. The likelyhood of that happening though is small I think. Both camps have thrown way to much money in the ring for something else to come in and take their market away. It would have to be a step up in quality at a good price with major studio support...and I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

HD is not going anywhere. It is extremely popular and HDTVs sales are at an all time high. This X-mas will be huge for HD. The problem is getting the knowledge of how HD works to the mass consumer. Try explaining HDMI, 1080p, etc. to Joe Sixpack and they stare at you blankly.

I always laugh when I see the huge signs saying "You must have HD programming to get High Definition on you HDTV" at all electronics stores or departments. People just see the HD sign and still think it's going to look like it did in the store when they hook up their cable coaxial to it. I can imagine the complaints they have to deal with when people get home and their cable looks even shittier than it did b/c it is a standard signal stretched out over a 16x9 screen on a 55" TV.

I think price is as much a problem as the lack of knowledge of HD. BR is still crazy expensive compared to standard dvd and many of the HD & BR titles are running on sale for $25 to $35 on titles that you can buy for $5 to $10 on dvd. People just don't care to pay that much of a difference for something they really don't understand. Titles prices are going to have to hit $10 to $15 sales and players are still going to have to come down (especially BR).

Gone are the days when people will pay $250 for a Star Wars Laserdisc boxset (which personally makes me very happy). Granted HD titles are a far cry from that price point but back when laserdiscs were priced that, brand new VHS were released at $50 to $100 a pop. Everyone has been spoiled by dvd's cheap price on software and hardware.

HD will succeed. There will always be an HD option from now on...it's just a question of if it will be BR, HD-DVD, or something completely different.

The original DIVX format flopped within the span of about a year.

I'm worried, sure.

I still have a SACD/DVD-A combo player, and scant few titles to play on it, despite the obvious superiority inherent to those formats.

DVD sales have peaked. Both software and hardware.
It is now a (slowly) dying format.
It is going to trend down from here on out.

The HD formats are in their infancy in terms of market penetration now, but their trends are upwards and they have nothing but wide open spaces ahead of them.
Both of them may not be in mass production 10 years from now- but at least one will be format that most of us will be picking up when Justice League 3 or Transformers 4 is released to video.

there also isn't likely to be another completely different format that suddenly springs up out of nowhere. These formats entail billions of $ in R&D and associated infrastructure costs. It is not a cavilier decision to just try to start a new one. the wheels for both of these have been in motion for years, in conjuction with the studios.
Another format is not going to happen until these have peaked, which is still a loooong way off.

Nowhere near it's peak, yes. Trending down, yes. But I don't think we need to get the coffin ready just yet. It is the defacto standard and will probably remain so for the foreseeable future. The longer it takes for the HD format to get sorted out, guarantees more longevity for this format. I really doubt the studios will be willing to take a loss in the sales of DVDs to discontinue this format and push the HD version. They're probably waiting for enough traction in the marketplace to make it reasonable for them to do the switch. In the meantime, movies will continue to be released in both versions and the majority will still be purchased in regular DVD format.

Well, there are already two new formats out there, VMD and CH-DVD. Although without major studio backing, not sure how well they will do.

I'm a little confused. If it is trending down, doesn't that mean the peak has past?

I think you might be misinterpreting that first part. His point is that even if DVD has peaked and is slowly trending down, it's not in its death throes or anything.

Ah, you are correct. Thanks.

All of those people who have bought HD TVs are going to want to take advantage of their HD capability at some point. They are simply waiting for a clear winner in the format war.

that's why I qualified dying.
I don't think that it is going away next year- or will be gone 5 years from now.
10 years from now, though, I expect 480i/p releases to definitely be a niche of home video sales.

hell, maybe a lot sooner than that, as much of the catalog material that remains to be released is of very limited appeal.
Even remasters are going to hit a saturation point in the next few years.
There are only so many 4:3 letterbox and full frame titles out there, and only so many times they can re-package and reduce price Titanic or Die Hard or Breakfast at Tiffanys before the costs outweigh the benefit.

Hi Def discs are inevitable because that is the only way studios are going to keep making money from the same (relatively small) handfull of titles that are considered evergreen.

I think the one thing BD/HD proponents have to worry about is downloadable content. The xbox360 already has a gallery of 720p movies available for download and its only getting bigger. The 'rental' anti-copying potential of downloads probably give the MAFIAA execs wet dreams.

Bandwidth to the home will only get faster, but 1080p24 is likely to be the limit of video for the next decade or so. If the telecom oligopoly doesn't strangle broadband, we should see streaming HD over net become widely feasible within 5 years (swag) as verizon FIOS is now 15-20mbps and there are other, smaller, providers in specific regions that are even faster today.

But, as long as the discs are rippable you won't end up with the same problem that laserdisc (and dvix specifically) ran into where you've got good content in an unplayable format. Just rip to your PC once and keep the files on your hard disk each time you upgrade your PC.