The potential collapse of the hi-def disc...
09-10-07, 08:13 PM
#26
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Here's the reality: the market for burnable optical discs will probably die before HD DVD and Blu-Ray writables ever hit mass market pricing. With solid state getting so damn cheap (and expected to absolutely plunge over the next two years), I am very confident in this prediction. This means that what was once thought to be a PC-based storage solution as well as a movie content solution now only exists for movies. IMO, this will lead to considerably diminished enthusiasm from PC manufacturers within the next several years, as there will be no real money to be made from these discs. This is another bad indicator for both formats.
09-10-07, 08:41 PM
#28
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Indeed, the worst thing that could happen is both formats dying. Like my politics, I have decided I am format neutral (though still favoring one side)... That's great for me, but I doubt this scenario will work with anyone other than a hardcore movie buff... having to worry not only about which movie is on what, but which store sells what... please, that's not gonna fly. I hope this works itself out next yr.
09-10-07, 09:17 PM
#29
Originally Posted by wewantflair
Here's the reality: the market for burnable optical discs will probably die before HD DVD and Blu-Ray writables ever hit mass market pricing. With solid state getting so damn cheap (and expected to absolutely plunge over the next two years), I am very confident in this prediction. This means that what was once thought to be a PC-based storage solution as well as a movie content solution now only exists for movies. IMO, this will lead to considerably diminished enthusiasm from PC manufacturers within the next several years, as there will be no real money to be made from these discs. This is another bad indicator for both formats.
I don't see how you can forecast disc media becoming extinct by the time the consumer gets affordable HD writers. What you forget is the majority of computer users...have just discovered burning on disc media. There are waves and waves of different consumers buying PCs and many of them still don't understand all of it. Slowly, computer knowledge, just the basics, have started to penetrate multiple generations.
Solid state media is going to remain the crossover media it has become over the recent years. However, it is not going to be the preferred choice for movie lovers. Sure, I'd burn a movie to a memory card for the hell of it, but you also have to think about the "consumer flow". Just because you have a solid state player does that mean everyone else will or will accept it? Nope. You put a movie on your media card and take it to your friend's house or wherever and more than likely, you're going to have a problem. They might just have disc players. So, now you're talking about another media format war which will confuse consumers.
Time has shown consumers go for something they can see and feel and put on their shelves. I suppose a possibility would have the same size HD cases and have media cards stored in them, but still, I can only imagine the problems with such a small piece of plastic getting lost.
Now, solid state disks are going to replace magnetic hard drives. They are slowly penetrating the market.
I will concede, there will probably be a point where solid state media is going to takeover where magnetic used to reign, but forecasting what sectors (no geek pun intended) will embrace the new media for its own new standard, is a tough call, because we're dealing with psychology for the most part, and little logic.
09-10-07, 09:19 PM
#30
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Originally Posted by BuckNaked2k
I'm worried, sure.
I still have a SACD/DVD-A combo player, and scant few titles to play on it, despite the obvious superiority inherent to those formats.
I still have a SACD/DVD-A combo player, and scant few titles to play on it, despite the obvious superiority inherent to those formats.
09-10-07, 09:31 PM
#31
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
But it's much more than just about the solid state argument of diminishing prices. DVD collectors want more than just a thumbsize piece of plastic with the name of the movie on it. It's just not practical. They want artwork, they want Steelbooks, box sets, elaborate box sets, and making such a hug box set with a teeny-weeny solid state memory card inside, is asking for trouble. Consumers won't buy it.
I don't see how you can forecast disc media becoming extinct by the time the consumer gets affordable HD writers. What you forget is the majority of computer users...have just discovered burning on disc media. There are waves and waves of different consumers buying PCs and many of them still don't understand all of it. Slowly, computer knowledge, just the basics, have started to penetrate multiple generations.
Solid state media is going to remain the crossover media it has become over the recent years. However, it is not going to be the preferred choice for movie lovers. Sure, I'd burn a movie to a memory card for the hell of it, but you also have to think about the "consumer flow". Just because you have a solid state player does that mean everyone else will or will accept it? Nope. You put a movie on your media card and take it to your friend's house or wherever and more than likely, you're going to have a problem. They might just have disc players. So, now you're talking about another media format war which will confuse consumers.
Time has shown consumers go for something they can see and feel and put on their shelves. I suppose a possibility would have the same size HD cases and have media cards stored in them, but still, I can only imagine the problems with such a small piece of plastic getting lost.
Now, solid state disks are going to replace magnetic hard drives. They are slowly penetrating the market.
I will concede, there will probably be a point where solid state media is going to takeover where magnetic used to reign, but forecasting what sectors (no geek pun intended) will embrace the new media for its own new standard, is a tough call, because we're dealing with psychology for the most part, and little logic.
I don't see how you can forecast disc media becoming extinct by the time the consumer gets affordable HD writers. What you forget is the majority of computer users...have just discovered burning on disc media. There are waves and waves of different consumers buying PCs and many of them still don't understand all of it. Slowly, computer knowledge, just the basics, have started to penetrate multiple generations.
Solid state media is going to remain the crossover media it has become over the recent years. However, it is not going to be the preferred choice for movie lovers. Sure, I'd burn a movie to a memory card for the hell of it, but you also have to think about the "consumer flow". Just because you have a solid state player does that mean everyone else will or will accept it? Nope. You put a movie on your media card and take it to your friend's house or wherever and more than likely, you're going to have a problem. They might just have disc players. So, now you're talking about another media format war which will confuse consumers.
Time has shown consumers go for something they can see and feel and put on their shelves. I suppose a possibility would have the same size HD cases and have media cards stored in them, but still, I can only imagine the problems with such a small piece of plastic getting lost.
Now, solid state disks are going to replace magnetic hard drives. They are slowly penetrating the market.
I will concede, there will probably be a point where solid state media is going to takeover where magnetic used to reign, but forecasting what sectors (no geek pun intended) will embrace the new media for its own new standard, is a tough call, because we're dealing with psychology for the most part, and little logic.
HD optical (specifically BD) was designed with long-term backup storage in mind. I contend that these enterprise solutions will simply never be brought to market. Solid state is too cheap and stable to not overtake this market.
What real market is there for burnable HD DVD or BD discs? They are not useful for piracy applications due to price, ease of use of DVD-9, and technological roadblocks. They are not useful for enterprise solutions, since the discs are too small and will be supplanted by solid state within the near future. They are not useful for home backup since external storage drives are faster, more stable, and dirt cheap.
Based on this hypothesis alone, I foresee a significant waning of PC manufacturer enthusiasm over the near-term. Companies like HP and Dell are marketing their internal BD drives not as backup solutions, but as home media hubs. I don't foresee a change here. This lower amount of support from the PC manufacturers is not a good thing for either format.
09-10-07, 09:59 PM
#32
Ahh, ok. Well, it should be interesting to see what happens. We may see a dramatic price reduction which will compete with the magnetic and SSD drives.
09-11-07, 09:30 AM
#33
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
But it's much more than just about the solid state argument of diminishing prices. DVD collectors want more than just a thumbsize piece of plastic with the name of the movie on it. It's just not practical. They want artwork, they want Steelbooks, box sets, elaborate box sets, and making such a hug box set with a teeny-weeny solid state memory card inside, is asking for trouble. Consumers won't buy it.
I don't see how you can forecast disc media becoming extinct by the time the consumer gets affordable HD writers. What you forget is the majority of computer users...have just discovered burning on disc media. There are waves and waves of different consumers buying PCs and many of them still don't understand all of it. Slowly, computer knowledge, just the basics, have started to penetrate multiple generations.
Solid state media is going to remain the crossover media it has become over the recent years. However, it is not going to be the preferred choice for movie lovers. Sure, I'd burn a movie to a memory card for the hell of it, but you also have to think about the "consumer flow". Just because you have a solid state player does that mean everyone else will or will accept it? Nope. You put a movie on your media card and take it to your friend's house or wherever and more than likely, you're going to have a problem. They might just have disc players. So, now you're talking about another media format war which will confuse consumers.
Time has shown consumers go for something they can see and feel and put on their shelves. I suppose a possibility would have the same size HD cases and have media cards stored in them, but still, I can only imagine the problems with such a small piece of plastic getting lost.
Now, solid state disks are going to replace magnetic hard drives. They are slowly penetrating the market.
I will concede, there will probably be a point where solid state media is going to takeover where magnetic used to reign, but forecasting what sectors (no geek pun intended) will embrace the new media for its own new standard, is a tough call, because we're dealing with psychology for the most part, and little logic.
I don't see how you can forecast disc media becoming extinct by the time the consumer gets affordable HD writers. What you forget is the majority of computer users...have just discovered burning on disc media. There are waves and waves of different consumers buying PCs and many of them still don't understand all of it. Slowly, computer knowledge, just the basics, have started to penetrate multiple generations.
Solid state media is going to remain the crossover media it has become over the recent years. However, it is not going to be the preferred choice for movie lovers. Sure, I'd burn a movie to a memory card for the hell of it, but you also have to think about the "consumer flow". Just because you have a solid state player does that mean everyone else will or will accept it? Nope. You put a movie on your media card and take it to your friend's house or wherever and more than likely, you're going to have a problem. They might just have disc players. So, now you're talking about another media format war which will confuse consumers.
Time has shown consumers go for something they can see and feel and put on their shelves. I suppose a possibility would have the same size HD cases and have media cards stored in them, but still, I can only imagine the problems with such a small piece of plastic getting lost.
Now, solid state disks are going to replace magnetic hard drives. They are slowly penetrating the market.
I will concede, there will probably be a point where solid state media is going to takeover where magnetic used to reign, but forecasting what sectors (no geek pun intended) will embrace the new media for its own new standard, is a tough call, because we're dealing with psychology for the most part, and little logic.
By the time that either HD DVD-R or BD-R is to the point where the media is at an affordable level, comperable solid state devices will be cheaper and easier to use.
That leaves pre-recorded movies the only practical use for HD DVD and BD.
I believe that primary hard disk drives in computers will be supplanted by solid state memory over the next 5-10 years.
09-11-07, 12:12 PM
#34
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i'm not quite yet in on the hi-def formats, but i'm planning to jump in with the 3rd gen HD DVD players being released next month. the way i see it, if HD DVD dies even just a year from now, i spent a couple hundred bucks on a great upconverting player for my large DVD collection, which i needed to do anyway. plus, i'll have the added benefit of being able to play the HD DVDs that i will have acquired in the meantime.
that said, i personally believe HD DVD and Blu-ray will co-exist in a laserdisc-like niche market primarily among home theater enthusiasts for at least the next 3 to 5 years.
that said, i personally believe HD DVD and Blu-ray will co-exist in a laserdisc-like niche market primarily among home theater enthusiasts for at least the next 3 to 5 years.
09-11-07, 02:05 PM
#35
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Originally Posted by applesandrice
I think it's much too early to count Beta out of the race . . .
09-11-07, 02:35 PM
#36
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Originally Posted by Jon2
Yeah, and none of these fancy-smancy video formats will EVER replace going to a theater for a pure movie watching experience.
Too true. In order to effectively replicate that experience you've gotta do what I do:
1) saturate the floor of your home theater room with spilled soda, popcorn and candy bits
2) ABC gum on all the seats
3) invite a bunch of strange people to come in and take all the best seats. Said people must be at least one of the following: stinky, scary-looking, obnoxious
4) during the film's climax, turn off the projector and mute the sound in order to simulate technical difficulties. After at least five minutes of letting the film play unwatched, turn everything back on and refuse to rewind
5) before each showing, take $8-10 out of your wallet and hand it over to some pimply-faced miscreant who, in turn, must then direct you to the incorrect room in your house. If you can't find a miscreant with a satisfactory number of pimples, simply place your money on the ground and light it on fire
6) after the show, leave your house for 10 minutes to walk the streets, in an effort to simulate looking for your car. Extra credit if, when you "find" it, someone has dented it and didn't leave a note
09-11-07, 04:04 PM
#37
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by applesandrice
3) invite a bunch of strange people to come in and take all the best seats. Said people must be at least one of the following: stinky, scary-looking, obnoxious
09-11-07, 04:40 PM
#38
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Originally Posted by BuckNaked2k
I'm worried, sure.
I still have a SACD/DVD-A combo player, and scant few titles to play on it, despite the obvious superiority inherent to those formats.
I still have a SACD/DVD-A combo player, and scant few titles to play on it, despite the obvious superiority inherent to those formats.
Originally Posted by tonymontana313
Damn, I feel for you.
That's why when I dipped my foot in the SACD/DVD-A pool, I made sure I bought a player I wanted that just happened to support one of the formats. I bought a Denon 1600 for the dvd capabilities and it also does DVD-A. I bought several titles for DVD-A but it never took off. I made sure that I did not pay an extreme amount of money for the titles and did not blow a large wad on getting a combo player just to have SACD also. I wanted SACD but am glad I approached it as I did obviously.
I accumulated approx 20 titles that I love (including a few dual-disc versions). I still get to listen to them and enjoy them to this day. Though DVD-A/SACD/Dual-Disc appear to all be dead, I don't regret my purchase in the least. I didn't overpay for the player or software which makes the loss of the format easier to swallow. I also got a kick-ass dvd player that has lasted me for over 5 years and is still going strong.
It is exactly how I approached the current HD format war. I waited until a player hit my magic price point ($200) and will only buy titles of movies I want for less than $15. I liked HD-DVD because it plays normal dvds and I would have a nice upconverting player should the format die. I also liked the combo discs for titles such as TMNT so my son can watch it wherever. I still have many of my favorite movies in HD that I did not spend a mint on and can watch forever...just like my DVD-As. If HD-DVD lost the format war tomorrow, I would not regret my purchase. I would be disappointed but happy with everything I got and will continue to get out of it.
09-11-07, 04:43 PM
#39
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applesandrice,
You forgot to include the people who talk during the movie, including narrating what's about to happen, as well as the crying babies. And your added "guests" should be sure to check their brightly lit cellphones for text messages frequently during the movie...
You forgot to include the people who talk during the movie, including narrating what's about to happen, as well as the crying babies. And your added "guests" should be sure to check their brightly lit cellphones for text messages frequently during the movie...
09-11-07, 05:42 PM
#40
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Originally Posted by lizard
applesandrice,
You forgot to include the people who talk during the movie, including narrating what's about to happen, as well as the crying babies. And your added "guests" should be sure to check their brightly lit cellphones for text messages frequently during the movie...
You forgot to include the people who talk during the movie, including narrating what's about to happen, as well as the crying babies. And your added "guests" should be sure to check their brightly lit cellphones for text messages frequently during the movie...
My bad.
Several years back, when my sister attended a bargain showing of "Legends of the Fall" up in Seattle, one particularly inebriated audience member (not my sister) pulled a gun on another individual (also not my sister) who had apparently rebuked him for being too loud. That guy has a standing invitation to my house.
Josh -- totally. And anyone sitting behind me has to repeatedly kick the back of my seat, and/or put their feet up by my head . . .
09-11-07, 09:01 PM
#41
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Originally Posted by Paul_SD
DVD sales have peaked. Both software and hardware.
It is now a (slowly) dying format.
It is going to trend down from here on out.
The HD formats are in their infancy in terms of market penetration now, but their trends are upwards and they have nothing but wide open spaces ahead of them.
It is now a (slowly) dying format.
It is going to trend down from here on out.
The HD formats are in their infancy in terms of market penetration now, but their trends are upwards and they have nothing but wide open spaces ahead of them.
Agree that hardware sales are down - however there are only so many players that you can buy (which is why the Sony's of this world bought out the film companies).
As for the software, what evidence do you have that sales are down for SD DVDs ? With prices coming down, and constant sales, I would expect that sales are maintaining or increasing.
As for the format : gee what is is about the Americans who only think about THEIR country ONLY (not wishing to get to into fight here
) - however - there is a WHOLE REST OF THE WORLD that purchases SD DVDs. Within many of the Asian and European countries there are countless millions watching films/shows on SD DVDs, whether they are originals or pirates. SD DVD is the dominate format currently, and will remain so for a long time yet. You are not going to see a HD 1080p TV in each Chinese household for a long long time !! Not everyone has the spare few thousand $$ to purchase a 40"-50" LCD or Plasma - nor even the space in their living rooms. Millions of SD DVD 'blanks' are still produced and used for creating DVDs. It is still giving the hardware and software companies $$$$ and there is absolutely no way that they will suddenly stop production of SD DVD.
HD DVD is in its infancy and its going to be extremely hard to convince the world wide audience to 'upgrade' for the sake of a better picture and sound - more so with the MP3 generation (hey - I can download the song in 128Kb rather than buy a CD !!). Put a kid in front of a Wiggles DVD - are they 'caring' that they can see each pore of the Wiggles ?
. HD is IMO all about Hollywood - attempting to 'protect' their business, and control of the product. And who owns the studios ?? In this country - Australia - where consumers are normally quick on purchasing new technologies - HD doesn't exist on our free to air TVs, damn its even extremely hard to convince the public here to purchase Digital Set Boxes and get off analogue. Blu-ray and HD titles are available - but at 3-4 times the current price of HD. When I'm at a B&M store, the public just ignores them.
IMO - the only way in which these formats can 'win' is to drastically drop their prices in line with the current SD DVD prices, to entice Joe Average to purchase a new player (Blu ray players here are still in the $1000+ mark) and into titles. (I was 'shocked' to read in another post that Walmart sells 40% of the DVDs in the U.S. market. To get HD sales - they are going to have to do something quick on HD DVD prices !!). However - I don't forsee any manufacturer reducing prices to the $200 mark soon (maybe $299 !!) !! The world is changing, and constantly. HD this year... something else next....
HD may be getting some attention in the U.S. - but think a bit more outside the square - the manufacturers don't simply rely on only U.S. sales.
Lest we forget....
PSP/UMD
DVHS
DAT
DCC
SACD
BETAMAX
DIVX
LASERDISC
(hope i wasn't seen as anti-US here)
Last edited by tonyjg; 09-12-07 at 01:50 AM.
09-12-07, 09:23 AM
#44
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^ What shows are YOU watching? this is the golden age of TV - tons of crystal clear shows that are better than almost anything you can see at the multiplex!
09-12-07, 04:26 PM
#45
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Old guys like me like collecting dvds, and seeing the art work. My kids could care less. Their generation wont care if they download a movie, or buy it on a chip. I'd say there's 10 years left for us old people.
09-12-07, 05:29 PM
#46
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Originally Posted by parrotheads4
Old guys like me like collecting dvds, and seeing the art work. My kids could care less. Their generation wont care if they download a movie, or buy it on a chip. I'd say there's 10 years left for us old people.
I just don't get it. The packaging thing, maybe...but the loss of quality???
09-12-07, 06:57 PM
#47
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Originally Posted by brianluvdvd
What amazes me is kids these days don't seem to give a shit about quality either. They would just as well listen to a downgraded mp3 thru shitty ear phones than a DVD-A with 5.1 sound thru an awesome sound system. They would just as well watch a movie with crappy sound & picture on their cell phone/ipod than watch it on a 65" HDTV.
I just don't get it. The packaging thing, maybe...but the loss of quality???
I just don't get it. The packaging thing, maybe...but the loss of quality???
09-12-07, 08:58 PM
#49
Originally Posted by brianluvdvd
What amazes me is kids these days don't seem to give a shit about quality either. They would just as well listen to a downgraded mp3 thru shitty ear phones than a DVD-A with 5.1 sound thru an awesome sound system. They would just as well watch a movie with crappy sound & picture on their cell phone/ipod than watch it on a 65" HDTV.
I just don't get it. The packaging thing, maybe...but the loss of quality???
I just don't get it. The packaging thing, maybe...but the loss of quality???
09-12-07, 09:50 PM
#50
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Originally Posted by mdc3000
^ What shows are YOU watching? this is the golden age of TV - tons of crystal clear shows that are better than almost anything you can see at the multiplex!
, and you're right about the movies. I don't think i've bought a new movie this year, plenty of catalogue titles though. It's just a matter of opinion. 
Brianluvdvd, i agree with you and i'll quote the goonies now, "kids suck"
Last edited by cornbughead; 09-12-07 at 10:56 PM.