the future of home video. It's official. A major studio has spoken a bit of truth about the format war. See here:

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/ne...ticle_ID=10458

one of the hd discs will win. the only possibility of that not happening is if downloading movies beats it, but that's unlikely. 3d movies is even more unlikely

Well, one will probably win out over the other, but over DVD...? That's the question.

Yes...of course...in time. When everyone gets a taste of true HD, standard DVD just doesn't cut it.

See, I don't agree with that. It's a dramatic difference to me, but just going anecdotally, I have a number of relatives who own HDTVs and say they can't tell the difference between HD broadcasts and DVD. Some say they really can't see anything different between HD and analog broadcast, which I find unfathomable, but...whatever.

Yeah, if the average consumer has a 40+" TV. As much as I love HD DVD, DVD still cuts the mustard exceptionally well.

"Can't be transferred to optical disc"??? "Can't" or "won't"?

If it's a digital file (and it is) it can be transferred to an optical disc. Whether or not there is a delivery system currently available for the technology is another thing altogether, though.

As for Joe Six-pack being able to watch "Meet the Robinsons" in Disney Digital 3-D(tm) at home on his 20 year-old Quasar, I'm guessing that's probably not going to be happening. I would think that a proper display would have to be 1) capable of 32-bit color, and 2) meticulously calibrated, but not entirely out of reach to the home theater enthusiast. If there is a market, it will be available.

Eventually, at least . . .

I think most of us realize these formats could stay a niche. I might actually be happier with a niche since we wouldn't be as likely to have the threat of 16x9 "fullscreen" releases supplanting OAR for 2.35:1 and 1.33:1 material.

The 3D thing is completely separate from home video, but anyway, what he meant was that the experience of seeing a movie in 3D couldn't be duplicated at home. Duh.

Then he's wrong about that, too.

I tend to agree about Blu-ray/HD-DVD being a niche format. I've always believed that, and since I've started showing people Blu-ray movies on my HDTV, I still believe it. My friends and family agree that yes, the image looks better, but not mindblowingly better, not to extent of them running out and buying new equipment and rebuying movies. It will appeal basically to videophiles (i.e. most of the audience on this forum). It's the new laserdisc.

Now, 3-D movies being the next big thing theatrically is far fetched IMO. But I'm sure that some studios thought highly of it in the early 1950's too.

did dvd look mindblowingly better than vhs?

Maybe not to many, but DVD's advantage wasn't soley because of that anyway, it was due to it being a whole new format. Consumers liked them because they didn't have to rewind them, and they were already familar with and liked the small disc format due to CDs. Also, with rental pricing (as in VHS releases) being a thing of the past, people liked being able to buy DVDs of new releases (at prices much cheaper than laserdiscs due to studios, particularly led by Warner Bros, trying to push DVDs as an impulse sales item). Stores liked them because they took up less space than VHS did. And the fact that there was no format war (it was close at one point, but wisely averted) made things far less confusing for consumers. It took a number of years, but all these elements, plus a better picture, made DVDs one of the most sucessful products of it's type (never matched by laserdisc or even VHS). It came along at the right time, the market was ready for a new format. This time, two formats are being rather clumsily forced on people. The videophiles are gobbling them up sure, but the average person is staying away, if he is even aware of, and/or confused by the new formats.

And don't under-estimate to vhs-tape wear issue. I know that when my kids were little they would watch the same video over so many times, I would have to buy multiple copies.

I remember talking to cjplay on AVS and he mentioned that IMAX 3D could be replicated on HD sets (this was in reference to Superman Returns, although obviously WB opted not to release the 3D version).

"Major" is questionable. Dreamworks Animation releases two films a year. They have a good track record (in box-office terms, anyway), but I wouldn't rank them with WB, Paramount, Disney, etc.

Most people I know listen to crappy, highly compressed (at the lowest bit rate so they can the most songs on their player...) mp3's, even at home plugged into their stereo, even when the CD is sitting right there. It's convenient and they all think it sounds just fine. I think they sound like nails on a chalkboard.
To many, DVD will be plenty good enough unfortunately.
Hell, so many people who even HAVE bought into the new formats bitch when their films don't have enough "3-d POP!" or look like Discovery shot on HD video.

I have said this from the beginning. I know nobody outside of this board that owns any of the new formats. I actually do not know anybody even concerned with the new formats. That is fine, I have both and despite some issues I am pretty happy with that fact. don't mind being niche.

No arguement here. I also don't know anyone with an HD DVD or Blu-ray player. I know several people with HDTVs and most do not have HD content hooked up to it.

A friend of mine recently bought a new flat screen LCD. I told her that she should add Time Warner's HD package for an additional $5 a month to start to enjoy HD programming. She didn't feel the extra cost was worth it. $5? She spent $1500 on a TV and won't spring for an additional $5 a month for HD programming. Is there any hope that people like this would pay $400 for an HD player and discs?

HD discs are a niche and will remain a niche. I don't see them ever challenging DVD.
Not only that, I think HDTV programming is a niche as well. DTV may be the future, but HDTV doesn't look to be more than an optional service few sign up for.

I barely go to the theater to see movies now because of the "premium" they want to charge me for the luxury in sitting in a seat where 100's of asses have been before in a noisy, punk-laden theater with cell phones going off and talking a-holes thinking thet are starring in their own movie.

There is something that theater chains and movie companys are going to have to realize. Me and many like me DON'T go to a theater anymore because of the presentation. I got presentation at home. I go to the theater for content. I last went to see "300," not because I wanted to see it in a theater, but because I wanted to see it 4-5 months before it came out on video.

If I could have bought it on a disc (especially HD-DVD) for $14.95-$19.95 instead of the $11.00 to see it in a theater...I would have bought the disc!

If they want to raise that "premium" even higher for the "experience" of 3-D Movies, screw them, screw DreamWorks, and screw Spielberg, screw E.T., and screw "Saving Private Ryan," and screw "Gladiator."

Yeah, I’m not going to sweat Dreamworks on this one. Their catalogue probably takes up the least amount of space in my collection anyway.

And also don’t care about 3-D, sorry

The problem I have with going to the theater is not just the content, which to me is hit or miss most of the time, but the theater experience does not justify the expense. I don't remember the last time I went to a theater and left feeling that I got my money's worth. A movie experience should not include cell phones ringing, people talking excessively, and babies crying (which has happened on occasion).

I do agree with one quote from the article, “They ran out,” Katzenberg said. “The library is empty.”

Studios are out of ways to sell us movies that we already own. The general consumer is sick and tired of rebuying the same movies over and over. That is one reason HD discs are not selling as well as the studios hoped.

I am willing to rebuy my collection in HD DVD or Blu-ray, but I do not care about 3-D and I do not care about digitally downloading movies in HD.

As a proud cheapskate, the idea of VOD-only does not appeal to me. There will be no bargains to be found and no second-hand market.

But I want HD Anchorman.

Like someone pointed out earlier, convenience will trump quality 9 out of 10 times. And HD/Blu-ray are no more convenient than dvds.