lizard

Well, yes. The jump from VHS quality to DVD was big, even on a regular TV. Making the next step to watching upscaled DVD on an HDTV made the difference even greater.

There are many other reasons why DVD supplanted VHS (random access, extras, longer life, more convenient storage, sell-through pricing, etc.) but improved PQ and AQ were certainly major factors for many, including me.
This is true for me as well. I don't know a single person with either of the HD disc formats. I do have one neighbor who will get BD when the bugs get worked out of the 2nd gen machines. That's it.

So, I agree that HD DVD and BD will remain niche markets for some years to come and, perhaps, stay that way until they are supplanted by the "Next Big Thing".

stingermck

You know the studios could always do, what they did on VHS. Stop releasing new titles on the format. I know this will never happen, but imagine a Spider-Man 3, BR only, no SD DVD.

Adam Tyner

One way of looking at it: the difference between VHS and DVD was so dramatic that I can't watch VHS anymore. I mean, given a choice between watching a movie on VHS and watching nothing at all, I'd rather pass entirely.

I can still cheerfully watch DVDs. There's a substantial difference to me between DVD and HD DVD, and all other things equal, I'd much rather watch something in high-def, but I don't feel like I'm slumming it when I put on a DVD.

Outside of a press junket where I chatted with some Internet-based entertainment writers (y'know, nerdy people like us), I haven't either.

darkside

That will not happen when the HD formats are under 1% of DVD sales. Studios would be insane to leave that kind of money on the table.

Dan Average

Anchorman belongs to Dreamworks proper, which is now wholly owned by Paramount. Katzenberg is CEO of Dreamworks Animation (a completely different company despite the name) and has no longer has any day-to-day involvement with the "other" Dreamworks, which is releasing their first HD titles next month (Dreamgirls and Flags of Our Fathers). The thread title is kinda misleading.

Mopower

I don't know anyone that has either format either. And when I mention HD-DVD's or BluRay to people they ask "what is that?" I probably wouldn't have 15 HD-DVD's if it wasn't for DVDTALK anyway. Because I probably know about them.

cultshock

Hell, I know people who have an HDTV and watch SD television on it while thinking it's HD just because the TV is. The general public is absolutely clueless about HD. No one has properly educated them on the subject and people are left either confused or oblivious to the whole thing. The people who actually know what's going on HD wise, people who frequent boards like this, make up, what, 1% of the population? (that's a complete guess, but I'm sure it is a very small percent). It is completely niche. And the comment about people listening to MP3s and being happy enough with them is dead on. These same people will think DVDs are good enough. The new generation discs don't offer any extra convinience (like DVD did for VHS), so why would the average person want to upgrade? Not everyone is looking for the best possible quality. They are looking for something cheap, convenient and easy to find. As long as it doesn't look like complete crap, they will be happy.

Vipper II

I've had a few people buy HD DVDs from me off of Amazon, only to return them because they incorrectly thought they could play them since they had an HDTV. My listings have been modified, as a result.

cultshock

Yeah, the ONLY time I ever see anyone else in the HD-DVD/Blu-ray section in Best Buy (besides myself) is because these people think they can play these discs now they have a new HDTV. That's until a clerk (or myself) has to tell them that no, they have to buy separate hardware to play them too. At which point the person walks away shaking their head, confused. I've witnessed this far more than once.

lizard

Well put. My feelings exactly. I've been watching a number of my SD DVDs lately while I wait for more HD DVD releases. They look fine. But watch a VHS movie? I can't even imagine doing such a thing.

fryinpan1

This USAToday article is from last November, but it still has some interesting numbers:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...onfusion_x.htm

- Only 47% of people buying a high-definition TV set in the past year say they did so looking forward to watching TV shows in HD.

- About 15% of all homes now have an HDTV set.

- About 30% of HDTV owners haven't even signed up with their cable or satellite companies to get HD channels.

- The study found widespread HD confusion. Many consumers think all digital TV signals give them an HD picture. They don't.

- It also found that many consumers believe that only cable or satellite delivers HD signals. In fact, local stations offer network, and sometimes local, HD shows over the air.

stingermck

As far as friends go, I have one who has a PS3. So far he only has The Covenant on BR, vs my 30+ HD. But he still feels the need to talk shit to me about BR being superior, but barely supporting the format.

PornoStar

My viewpoint on this matter had greatly changed since first adopting into HD. I used to think that either one or both of these formats would without a doubt be the replacment for SD DVD in the market. Now I dont think they have a chance in hell at doing that anymore. Looking at the latest figures for HD and looking at the latest figures for SD DVD I just no longer think that HD will ever get enough momentum to overtake SD DVD and that SD DVD will co-exist wth the HD formats until something else comes along somewhere way down the road, wether that is downloading or what I dont know, but again I just dont see HD ever taking over SD DVD.

Last time I looked there were now over 80,000 titles to choose from from SD DVD and that number is only growing by large amounts every month. I just dont see the average joe sacrificing the SD DVD selection and price to stick with only HD. I think its very well possible that an HD format or both can in fact become very successful but overtaking SD DVD, not a chance in my book. Even the average Joe people that do adopt HD I think will still end up purchasing alot of SD DVD's to play on thier HD systems as so many of them are ok with upconverted images. So even the ones that do adopt an HD format I just dont see them switching over to HD exclusivly like so many of us on these forums do. Ill bet tat in fact even the ones that do witch over will still get a higher percentage of SD titles than HD titles.

The only way I ever see HD overtaking SD is if they actually shut down the SD DVD presses and the studios give up on SD and switch over to HD 100% and I think that is about as likly as BD and HD DVD shaking hands and coming to some kind of solution for this war. In other words it just isnt gonna happen. HD and SD will co-exist side by side for a long long long time and if HDis lucky they might get like 30-40% of the markte and that is if they are lucky and push HD harder than they have been and bring the prices even farther down before this christmas.

PornoStar

I really wish I could say the same thing unfortunatly for me and my eyes and my obsession with getting the best possible image quality possible, both in my photography and my home theatre, SD DVD just no longer does the trick for me. I can watch it but I sit there wishing it was in HD the entire time. If its a really great transfer and an really awsome job on the encoding like some of these newer films on SD then it isnt as bad as others but in the end Iam basically an HD guy now. I stopped buying SD DVD's along time ago and while we still pop sme in from time to time in my house, especially with the new releases that arent available in HD yet, again SD just doent hol the water that it once did.

I think I am definitly in the minority tho, maybe not for these forums but for the average joe. I dont think they will have a problem at all alternating between SD and HD and I still think that they will end up purchasing a greater percentage of SD DVD's over HD DVD's even when they do buy an HD player. Most people just arent that picky with thier picture qulaity, at least not after it gets to a certain quality like where SD DVD is right now. People ate up the VHS to DVDupgrade because it was such a substantial upgrade and lets face it VHS never looked very good at all. SD DVD on the other hand is a great overall quality for home theatres and while HD is better, its just not that much better to most of them.

Tracer Bullet

I don't think there's any way of knowing if the new DVD formats or downloading (or something else that we can't see) are going to overtake SD-DVD. Downloading is great, but unless you're a geek it's difficult to get that material displayed on your TV. Xbox 360 and Apple TV might be pushing hard for downloading, but that's another box you have to buy, so there's invested cost involved in either downloading or buying a new HD-DVD or Blu Ray player. I don't think many people are interested in buying another appliance right now, period.

candyrocket786

Mr. Cinema

HD on disc is looking more and more like a niche product. 1 format needs to prevail if they want any chance of the masses adopting/upgrading.

Qui Gon Jim

Tell Josh we said hello.

AZA77

I think many people are forgetting one very crucial point. ....Price. As the prices begin to fall even more than they already have, and the average consumer will be able to buy a next generation HD player at the same or close to price of a standard DVD player, most will likely opt for the newer and better format. This will quickly lead to more sales of HD content and just like DVD, begin to snowball very quickly. If you recall in 1997 and 1998, there were just as many of your friends who did not have a dvd player or and dvd's (possibly even yourself) as do not own HD currently. HD formats are approaching only a year in release...and the format war has slowed them down...it by no means however, means that there won't be a switch to the better format by consumers. Since the actual disc is cheap and the shape and size readily familiar to the average consumer...what I see happening is an evolving sales system. The consumer may not be aware of what is happening, but underneath his nose, the amount of HD players and titles will begin to increase till most new players (standalone, computers, and game machines) will be everywhere and extremely cheap. You can already see this effect with Playstation turning the tide quite drastically. It's just a matter of waiting for the format war to be over, then the confusion will allow for the winning format to really start pushing.

Think of it this way...even if you don't already own an HD tv...if you walk into a store wanting to buy a new TV...what are the odds that you will be surrounded by HD tv sets now? And then, what are the odds you will purchase an HDtv knowing that it is the way of the future and buying SD tv is really like throwing your money away. Even the average consumer feels this desire even if they are not too well versed in the technology itself.

In addition, it's also possible that the winning format will continue the idea of HD discs being bundled with SD discs, like the current dual HD titles. Even if Blu ray wins...whos to say they wont bundle in an older SD disc so that no matter what you're buying, you're buying HD. It's a matter of what...five extra cents or maybe seven? This would in a way, make you buy HD no matter what you do. And if you argue that it can't happend because of the cost of HD discs and replicating...trust me...the prices you see now will not be anywhere as expensive in two years from now. We are currently seeing many amazing DVD disks being sold for less than five dollars.

At the end of the day, since the technology is simply better (either format), and can be used as an addition to instead of a replacement for DVD, it is most likely that a standard change will happen. It just won't happen the way it did for DVD...meaning that people won't run out and say... "Oh MY!!! I gotta get that new movie disc thing! It's sooo much better than VHS! Have you seen it yet?" It'll be more like...."Hmm..gotta go out and get a new DVD player for my brand new HD set...hey whats this HD DVD thing? It's the same price as the regular DVD player but it says HD on it...does that mean it's better? Well...i guess I'll try it cause it says it'll play my old DVD discs as well...." Not exactly the same as DVD, but it will happen.

That's my opinion at least

Adam Tyner

Did something I should've done a long time ago and put the full title in the subject line of the thread.

Using an ellipsis when there's plenty of room in the subject field is an annoying, pointless ploy for clicks.

Drexl

They would fear people giving away or selling the other discs. Rental stores could also rent out two copies of a movie for the price of one. That's why combo discs are feasible - both editions are glued together to keep them in one place.

bmello

The local movie theater is showing Meet The Robinsons in 2-D and 3-D. To see it in 3-D was a preminum. I asked my kids and they didn't want to see it in 3-D.

Supermallet

Dreamworks is suing your kids.