HANOVER, Germany (Reuters) - The Blu-ray disc association said on Thursday it aimed to replace the DVD storage format within three years.
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"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray," Frank Simonis, the Blu-ray Disc Association's European chairman, said at the CeBIT technology trade show.

Blu-ray, which offers five times more storage capacity than DVDs for storing high definition films and other content, will first have to beat the rival HD-DVD format which offers somewhat lower storage capacity but claims cheaper production of players, burners and discs.

Measured in the number of players, Blu-ray is already well ahead of HD DVD because Sony's PlayStation 3 (PS3) video games console comes with a built-in Blu-ray player.

Sony Computer Entertainment said it had sold 1.84 million PS3s by the end of December in Japan and North America and that one million PS3s are ready for launch next week in Europe.

The HD DVD camp conceded it is being outsold by Blu-ray because of PS3 by at least five to one, but it claims that sales of movie titles are still level. Film studio 20th Century Fox, which supports Blu-ray, said weekly Blu-ray film sales are actually three times higher than HD DVD.

A total of 5.2 million Blu-ray discs have already been sold, said Nick Sharples at Sony Computer Entertainment Europe. Hundreds of thousands of titles have been given away to consumers buying a PS3.

EUROPE IS BEHIND

Any difference between regional sales may be explained by the fact that European consumers cannot yet buy PS3s and there are only two Blu-ray players available, Simonis said.

"It's the launch of the hardware, pulling the software. That has yet to play out in Europe," said David Walstra, director of AV technology at Sony.

Sony reiterated its target to have sold six million PS3 game consoles by the end of the year.

Five out of eight major Hollywood studios support only Blu-ray. One studio, Universal, supports only HD DVD.

The HD DVD promotional group, in a separate presentation, said consumers should not only focus on the big blockbuster titles from Hollywood, but also those from regional film houses in Europe and Asia which would bring many titles to HD DVD because it was cheaper and simpler.

Toshiba and Microsoft, as the two main backers of HD DVD, support film studios and production houses to bring out their films on HD DVD, several studios said on Thursday.

Hollywood and electronics manufacturers hope new high-definition DVDs, with better picture quality and more capacity, will rejuvenate the slowing $24 billion home DVD market.

But the war between HD DVD and Blu-ray -- also supported by companies like Samsung, Philips, Matsushita, Apple, and Dell -- has curbed adoption.


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I think that is a VERY optimistic number.

I can buy Blu-ray being the dominant high-def format by then, but I cannot fathom that it'll be dominant over DVD within three years. Absolutely no chance whatsoever.

I will be shocked if that happens. At this point it seems impossible. Beating HD DVD I can believe, but DVD is not going to be toppled in three years.

I am so tired of BD's "marketing" campaign. They are the lowest of the low.

Good luck.

Yeah, good luck convincing everyone who owns a DVD player (some of whom have probably just upgraded from VHS not too long ago) to run out and buy a BD player within the next 3 years. Will never happen.

They will be lucky if they have completely dispatched HD-DVD within 3 years. Dominate DVD, better chance of me getting in the sack with Jessica Alba.

Man they got some balls....

I'd be more inclined to buy a Blu Ray player if the backers weren't so damned arrogant. This kind of stuff is what turns me off.

"It's good to laugh"

ditto.

Well, I guess you gotta admire their confidence...Hell its pretty simple for them really. Lower their fucking prices and they may have a chance. Until then, sorry isn't happening.

Yeah cause I really see someone like my parents getting into blu-ray within 3 years. I agree it is their arrogance that bothers me...

I wonder if all of these predictions they are making is also a sign that shows they are frustrated that HD DVD continues to hang around. So what better way to make them feel better by spouting off claims like these.

Stats say there won't be enough high-def players in the market at that time to support this claim. But of course "Lies, damn lies, and statistics."

hey...you make it sound like I said that.


I love BD in spite of Sony, not because of them. I wish it wasn't a Sony format.

I will say this though...Sony WILL get the Joe 6 Pack to buy BD becasue it is a Sony product.

i was in the cablevision store and I hear a woman talking about how her new TV can play those Blue disks. When she bought her new TV at Best Buy the salesperson told her that she needed 1080p if she wanted to play them. So she dropped $3300 on a 1080p Sony LCD.

Sony will appear to 2 types of people...

1- the foolish who buy it because it is a Sony product
2- the audio/videophiles who love the format.

Still, no way it is catching up to DVD sales in 3 years. 6 maybe, if the format even wins.

I just don't see it ever beating out dvd. I can see it being the winner in the format war, but there are a lot of 27" tvs out there that don't need HD and won't buy the player. If they end up with a player from buying a PS3 or something else, they will use Blockbuster of Netflix, and BD will never catch up with DVD. While "never" seems like a long time, you already have reason to believe that neither format holds enough information. BD finally went double layer. Going beyond that probably makes less sense than using a new format in 4-5 years which replaces this interim generation, which will probably go down as moderately more successful than laserdisc.

EXACTLY....my parents dont even have an HDtv yet. I bet they will have one within 3 years, but not a BD player (or even hd-dvd).

Probably the wrong thread, but Im surprised other studios don't jump over to HD, especially if they think Blu-ray will be the winner. Of course, I don't know the ins and outs of what kind of deals they get with Sony for being exclusive, but why not get people to buy it for HD and then possibly again for Blu-Ray later?

will blu-ray oust hd dvd? YES

will blu-ray oust dvds in three years time? HELL NO

I wonder if that quote was just taken out of context, and what was really being said was that in three years, BD will be the only HD disc format. All the guy says is "within three years it will just be Blu-ray," and then the article goes on to say how BD is outselling HD DVD. I don't see any actual quotes that say BD will displace DVD in three years.

I have to agree with those who say this won't happen. On this forum, we have people who are downright defensive about sticking with DVD, and don't even want HD discs to exist. These are not "average" people either; these are the types that buy a lot of DVDs, seek out retailer exclusives, and are often willing to pay more for fancy packaging. If they don't want them, imagine how the average person feels.

I agree with Drexl - that quote seems taken out of context, and I can't find any other quotes from what was said CeBIT. Looks like the press just took that one quote and ran with it.

Funny that they don't trumpet that PS3 sales dropped off in February and that Gameboy Advance OUTSOLD PS3 in the same timeframe.

That initial surge that Sony and BD were hoping for with PS3 seems to be losing steam.

Yes and no. Going strictly by sales numbers I would agree but the PS3 was solely responsible for BD player sales surpassing HD-DVD. In that regard it was a success. It's pretty clear that Sony was more concerned with that war than games.

Wow. Just... wow.

I subscribed to this thread so I can bring it back up in three years for comedy gold.