I am personally waiting to choose a HD format until one side wins 100% of studio support. It seems like Fox and Sony have significant reasons why they wouldn't offer HDVD, but does anyone know the specific reason why Universal is backing HDVD over BD? I would think if Sony were ever able to sway Universal to their side the 100% studio converage they would enjoy would end this war.

Nothing definitive.

Universal seems to still be miffed over the failure of UMD, judging by some of their comments about BD in the past.

Some suspect that the relationship between Universal and Microsoft re: MSNBC is to blame but see this as only a temporary hurdle for BD support.

What is Fox's significant reason?

BD+. That's it, and that's all. If HD DVD had adopted it and Blu-ray hadn't, Fox would be in the HD DVD court right now.

They are big supporters of BD+ and are pissed off about being ignored by the DVD forum.

I agree. The first format to get 100% studio support wins. If Sony supports HD-DVD before Universal supports Blu-Ray then HD-DVD wins. Thats not gonna happen though.

I don't see either one caving. I could see Universal and Sony being the only hold-outs on both sides.

Universal loyalties to HD-DVD are about on the same level as Fox's loyalties to Blu-Ray. Disney is more likely to support HD-DVD then Universal to Blu-Ray but Disney supporting HD-DVD would be punching Blu-Ray in the stomach but Universal supporting Blu-Ray would be shooting HD-DVD in the head.

Holy Confusing Run-On Sentence, Batman!

Can you provide this in a mathematical formula or flowchart?

I think I'm going to shoot myself in the head after reading this.

I don't think so. If Sony becomes the only studio supporting BR exclusively, then BR loses.

If it becomes clear that Sony is trying to force a format on the industry, BR will collapse.

I think studio support will go agnostic and they'll let the marketplace decide. It lets them all save face by essentially 'putting it up for a vote'.

HD-DVD is priced to sell and I'm not sure BR can compete with that. If HD-DVD pulls away I believe Sony will pull the plug faster than anyone thinks. They're in the business to make money... especially after they take their beating on BR.

Actually, consumers are the key. Whatever the majority buys is what will win. HD-DVD's pricing certainly gives them an advantage. Will the majority of customers want to pay double the price to watch high definition content? Or will they want to save $500 to do so?

I think we are putting too much importance on 2006. 2006 is a year that is important to HD DVD to try and build a following, but what happens in 2007 will probably decide this format war and in that respect Blu-ray still has a major advantage. They will have their prices down to make the format more appealing and they still have a big advantage in studio and hardware support.

Won't HD-DVD have their prices even cheaper in '07 as well? I don't think it's out of the question if we see a BD only studio also support HD-DVD in '07 either.

Sony has already said that they're not going to drop prices for quite a while.

How much you want a bet that Toshiba and the other companies will drop even more in 2007? Thus far, they've proved that they're definitely not stupid.

All of that is possible as well. I'm not preaching the death of HD DVD, just that next year will be the major year that shows which way the tide will probably turn. 2006 is not going to be a big sales year for either format.

2007 may be too late for Blu-Ray if HD-DVD gets a big enough lead.

Fox was upset with Warner when dvd encryption was broken b/c WB pushed dvd out against the concerns of those at Fox. BD+ was Sony's way of giving Fox an extra safeguard this time around if and when aacs is broken.

Universal has very close ties with GE, Toshiba and Microsoft. It is also interesting to note that Stacy Snider, former chairman of the board for Universal, recently left for Paramount. Before coming to Universal she worked for Columbia Tri-star and supposedly left on so-so terms. After UMD it is going to take a while for Universal to reorganize itself and decide on what to do regarding Blu-ray.

And then there is the possibility of the dual format players giving the format war a new spin, that is, if the format war goes on long enough. I think that if it's not over by end of next year, dual format players might be the future. In the short term, I agree... Universal is a very important piece of the puzzle.

Universal is the only exclusive for HD-DVD, isn't it? Can someone provide a link to the Universal catalog?

Blu-Ray can afford to loose one studio HD-DVD can't. The price difference between the formats will narrow as time goes on. Thing is with the Playstation 3 only $500 there is no reason Blu-Ray players should be that high. I expect Sony is trying to make up profit losses they are getting on the Playstation 3.

Sure, it will narrow...but will BR be dead by that point?? Sony has already said it will be quite some time before prices come down. HD DVD has much less room to go down until it becomes "affordable." BR, OTOH, could take several years to get there.

Where have Sony said their prices will remain high? Have Panasonic, Pioneer, Samsung, et al all made similar statements?

There was a news story. The same one that hinted that there might be a dual-player.

I believe it was a general statement about Blu-ray

Link?