OliverB

But considering the early adapters of the format (HD-DVD) are enthusists that more than likely frequent forums such as this, HTF, Digital Bits, AVS, etc. that clearly represents a niche limited matket. It's in no way a representation of public perception or consciousness. Is that really enough to drive either formats? That said, most of 'us' are still strongly divided and many unwilling to support either formats. So those who do, reflect an extremely unrealistic portion of wat the studios would hope to cater to in delivering these new technologies to the public. So what I'm getting at is, will 17,000 units over 12,000 sales, be enough to discern one technology the reigning format? How much weight would that really hold, if any and how is anyone supposed to determine anything from such stats? It all seems pretty shakey to me...

Are we supposed to hope that the public will eventually catch on within 2 years with strong marketing and promo campaigns and suddenly pick up as a commercial venture?

Without unrealisticaly phasing out the current formats, wouldn't that sort of conflict with the whole perception of the average consumer-spender?

I personally don't see anyone but the likes of us caring about any of this for a long time... so are we just expected to wait 4 years to find out what's determined?

I just don't understand this whole "winning the format war" stance that everyone assumes will be so easy and naturally occuring.

Should we elect a panel of judges or something...


I don't know, it's just something that concerns me - among too many other related issues!


I think I'll just remain distanced and view this whole thing as I would passing a roadway accident. In the meantime, I'll continue to fork over every last dollar I make to standard Warner Bros DVD releases and should be set until the reverent messiah comes down and declares a victor and liberates us all.

mbs

Disagree. Everyone that I (personally) know with a Xbox 360 (the other "powerhouse HD Gaming system") doesn't have a HDTV (that is a small sample, four people, but you see my point). More and more people are getting HDTVs, but there will be plenty of PS3 adopters without HDTVs.

Certainly it will help Blu-Ray's cause, but I disagree with the premise that every PS3 owner will be a Blu-Ray consumer.

IMO, the real killer application for Blu-Ray is computers. No one in their right mind would buy a (same priced) HD-DVD recorder over a Blu-Ray recorder. Get them in computers and that could lead to people buying into Blu-Ray movies (in the early days DVD had a lot of help from PCs -- me and many of my other friends' sole players were our PCs).

Qui Gon Jim

You are all wrong here. PS3 is being marketed to anyone that had a PS2 or likes videogames. People still play games on old TVs, and that is why the PS2 RF Converters are such a popular item. I will say that 80% of PS3's will not be hooked up to HDTVs.


You are missing the point I was making. SOME PS3 owners will buy BR movies, while ALL HD-DVD owners will buy movies. So software sales per hardware unit sold could be much higher for HD than BR.

You vilify the a/v junkies and at the same time support them depending on whether it strengthens your argument.

Bottom line is this: Those a/v junkies are absolutely essential to the outcome of this format. If BR does not bring something that HD does not, then the lower price and early lead-off may spell doom for BR.

Steve

well, I am shocked.. Over at TDB, Ultraviolet will be released in a PG-13 and unrated version in HD-DVD but ONLY the PG-13/theatrical cut will be released on blue ray! I have NO idea of what Sony's marketing strategy is but this war seems to be leaning VERY heavily to HD-DVD, in my opinion. Players our first, more marketing, easy brand recognition, 1/2 the price and now an unrated version of a movie!

We can argue that the market may not be exactly screaming for a director's cut of Ultraviolet, but the fact that HD-DVD has an exclusive version of ANY film to me sounds strange...

thoughts?

Jimmy 345

No that movie is a Sony title and a Blu-Ray exclusives. Next time please check your facts. This war is also leaning heavily towards Blu-Ray more support, better tech, and better marketing. Check your facts.

Mr. Cinema

You cannot say the format war is leaning towards Blu-Ray when there are 0 players out with 0 movies. Ya know, there is a chance that most consumers won't want to spend $1000 to watch high-definition content and would rather spend $500 instead.

By most accounts, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD look almost identical in terms of video quality.

Jimmy 345

When DVD launched in 1997 there was a $500 and a more featured $1000 player and guess what the $1000 player actually outsold it by about 30%. While HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have identical picture on the discs (as long as the movie is short enough to fit on 30 gigs) the first gen blu-ray models have full 1080p support while not one HD-DVD player has been announced for the format. While it is true that the number of 1080p input televisions is extremely rare they are slowly but surely increasing and on such a television 1080p should offer a signfigant improvement.

Being first two market doesn't hurt but is far from a garuntee of success. Betamax was also out first and had less storage too. HD-DVD is less then 2.5 months ahead thats hardly anything signifigant enough to make much market difference.

darkside

I'm pretty sure they can squeeze most movies onto that tiny 30GBs.

I really have no problem with Blu-ray and think it will win out in the long run, but people that are so fanatical about it make me really hope it fails.

Mr. Cinema

I agree, except the part about it winning out. I don't know who will be the winner. I'm in the HD-DVD camp, but I don't spend time trying to degrade the competing product, something alot of Sony/BD diehards love doing. My main criticism with BD is with the pricing of their entry level players. I'm just not sure the majority of people are going to pay double the price to watch HD content. They may or may not.

bhk

What picked VHS over Beta is what is going to pick one over the other: adult films.

Jimmy 345

Yeah but many television mini-series and particulary long movies can't fit on 30 gigs without reducing quality. You can count the number of movies to long to fit on Blu-Ray on one hand. Blu-Ray is only twice as expensive because of 1080p. Comparing the price of a 1080p Blu-Ray player to a 1080i HD-DVD player is completly unfair. When 1080p HD-DVD players come out in the next year I am willing to bet the price difference between them and Blu-Ray will be insignfigant.

digitalfreaknyc

Exactly.

Remember when someone here accused me of working for Sony?

And look what's happened.

Man, I read those posts over at AVS forums and damn if they don't come across like arrogant assholes. And it's honestly ONLY the Blu-ray people. The HD-DVD people are surprisingly honest. That's another reason why I've changed sides.

digitalfreaknyc

That wasn't the only factor.

Coral

Nice way of trying to make HD-DVD look inferior.

1. Movies will not have any problems fitting on 30gb discs. You make it sound like it has to be 90 minutes or less.

2. The initial release of BR discs will only hold 25gb, and who knows how long until they release larger capacity discs. So my math shows that 30gb > 25gb.

3. Sony is using MPEG-2 compression (for who knows how long) while HD-DVD uses VC1 compression giving them even more space.

Jimmy 345

Then Blu-Ray has already won. Digital media 40% of the adult film content announced Blu-Ray backing.

bhk

That was a major factor(along with 6 hour recording times).

Jimmy 345

1. I never said 90 minutes or less. 30 gigs is enough for at least 95% of movies however there are certain long movies like Return of the King Extended or television miniseries that can't without reducing quality.

2. DVD was limited to single layer for its first few months on the market as well. 50 gigabit releases will definutly be availble before years end possibly before the end of the summer and soon after will be absolutly commonplace just as dual layer DVDs are.

3. Sony is not Blu-Ray. I don't agree with Sonys descign to use MPEG-2 but Fox and Warner have already said they plan on using advanced codecs on all Blu-Ray titles. Blu-Ray is every bit as capable of using MPEG-4 and VC-1 as HD-DVD. There will likely be more advanced codec Blu-Ray titles in 2006 then HD-DVD.

Jimmy 345

Betamax lost primarily because of lower storage space and less support. Sound familer.

Blitz6Speed

LOL, Nice! I am 100% over hd-dvd already. Bring on the Champion!!! Yes, i am biased, but its because i prefer quality over cheap. I dont drive a Lexus because it was cheap!

darkside

Please. A 30GB HD DVD can hold at least 6 hours of video without giving up quality and many say 8 hours. Maybe the entire trilogy can't fit on a single disc, but Return of the King will be fine. This is a non issue for video. For a TV box set I might have a couple of extra discs, but this is also a non issue and is not going to sway my decision.

In the home video realm the differences in disc storage are minimal and the fact a minor scratch can ruin a Blu-ray disc is a much bigger concern. I want to see Durabis 2 tested before I believe its unscratchable. The fact some crap plant in Mexico will be pounding out dual layered or triple layered Blu-rays in the near future is not a comforting thought considering how little room for error there will be for Blu-ray discs.

Jimmy 345

6 hours not even close. Even Blu-Ray can't fit that much. 1080p and maxed out DTS-HD audio 30 gigs will have trouble with barely fit a 2.5 hour movie. At Doby plus audio probably around four hours. 6 hours not even close.

ChrisHicks

ok, this is from a person who was on the fence and had a wait it out attitude, I am just going to get both and enjoy everything no matter the format. if one dies out I'll still have the other player and will continue buying discs for that one. no one has any idea how long this format war could go on, which will most likely be years, so why should I not enjoy HD now even though I need 2 players to do so?

besides, how many people here own an xbox/360, ps2 and a gamecube because of exclusive titles? its really no different here.

Adam Tyner

That's pretty much my thought process too. I don't really care which format wins because I'll be owning both. Only hassle will be that since I'll have discs in both formats, I'll have to either keep both hooked up even if one is overly dominant or rebuy some of the same discs in another format.

Jimmy 345

Its not even a matter of quality over price. Its quality over nothing really. Most of HD-DVDs price advantage is fake and due to stripping down features like 1080p.

darkside

Totally agree. When the Blu-ray price drops in 2007 I will buy it as well. I really have no issues with owning both formats just like its unavoidable owning multiple consoles.