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HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray vs. everything else free-for-all

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Old 04-27-06, 04:52 PM
  #226  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
All non Blu-Ray components should cost about the same as 360 components did when it launched. And even if the Blu-Ray ability does add $300 (Which I highely doubt) that still would only come to around $700. I have skeptism but I also have commen sense.
What part of the fact that the 360 costs MS $500 to manufacture do you not understand?

You keep saying that the PS3 will cost X more than the 360 (pure and wild speculation on your part). But then you say that the total cost won't be more than $700 at most. You cannot have it both ways.

I do hope the PS3 is under $500. I'll be ordering one. But you keep making claims about Sony's cost to produce with zero availability of a single source. I can pick a number out of a hat also, but I'll stick with the guesstimate of CNET and ML for now. They certainly could be wrong, but you are doing nothing to convince me otherwise.
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Old 04-27-06, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by mbs
What part of the fact that the 360 costs MS $500 to manufacture do you not understand?

You keep saying that the PS3 will cost X more than the 360 (pure and wild speculation on your part). But then you say that the total cost won't be more than $700 at most. You cannot have it both ways.

I do hope the PS3 is under $500. I'll be ordering one. But you keep making claims about Sony's cost to produce with zero availability of a single source. I can pick a number out of a hat also, but I'll stick with the guesstimate of CNET and ML for now. They certainly could be wrong, but you are doing nothing to convince me otherwise.
The Premium Edition costed over $500 but the core edition with no added assesseries cost less then $400. I am merely talking about the Playstation 3 console only with nothing added.
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Old 04-27-06, 07:55 PM
  #228  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
The Premium Edition costed over $500 but the core edition with no added assesseries cost less then $400. I am merely talking about the Playstation 3 console only with nothing added.
Cost = what the manufacturer pays to make each unit (the cost of the components). MS pays $500 to make each 360 and loses ~$200 on each unit sold.

Price = what a consumer pays.

They don't mean the same thing.

At their price MS is losing money for each Xbox sold (they make it all back and then some, but still takes a lot of capital to sustain such initial losses). If you say that the PS3 will cost $250 more than the Xbox, then if priced at the same point (as you suggest), Sony will lose $250 more per unit sold than MS does.

Last edited by mbs; 04-27-06 at 07:57 PM.
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Old 04-27-06, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by mbs
Cost = what the manufacturer pays to make each unit (the cost of the components). MS pays $500 to make each 360 and loses ~$200 on each unit sold.

Price = what a consumer pays.

They don't mean the same thing.

At their price MS is losing money for each Xbox sold (they make it all back and then some, but still takes a lot of capital to sustain such initial losses). If you say that the PS3 will cost $250 more than the Xbox, then if priced at the same point (as you suggest), Sony will lose $250 more per unit sold than MS does.
Microsoft lost about $120 on every Xbox 360 sold. So yeah if it costs $400 then Sony will be loosing far more then Microsoft did. Then again Microsoft only had games to make up on royalties while Sony has both games and Blu-Ray movies to make up the hardware losses so its entirely possible the Playstation 3 could be sold at a higher loss then any game console in history.
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Old 04-27-06, 09:26 PM
  #230  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
Then again Microsoft only had games to make up on royalties while Sony has both games and Blu-Ray movies to make up the hardware losses so its entirely possible the Playstation 3 could be sold at a higher loss then any game console in history.
Microsoft has MUCH more cash to burn than Sony does.

But we'll see. I hope you are right about the final price ($400-ish), but I seriously doubt your $650 estimate cost to build each PS3.
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Old 04-28-06, 10:04 AM
  #231  
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If the BD drive costs $250, that does NOT mean that the PS3 costs the Xbox's $500 + $250. First, you would have to subtract the cost of the Xbox's hardware that is not in common with the PS3. I'm not going to make some estimate, but you can't simply assume that the PS3 is $250 more. There are other issues as I've pointed out before. The possiblity of hiding or increasing costs by using subsidiary companies is never going to be known. The numbers they release to the public are not necessarily including all the data. Accountants take facts and make fiction from it, that's our job.

And Sony is doing just fine on the cash side, they can afford a temporary hit. Over $10bil goes a long way.
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Old 04-28-06, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Spiky
If the BD drive costs $250, that does NOT mean that the PS3 costs the Xbox's $500 + $250. First, you would have to subtract the cost of the Xbox's hardware that is not in common with the PS3. I'm not going to make some estimate, but you can't simply assume that the PS3 is $250 more. There are other issues as I've pointed out before. The possiblity of hiding or increasing costs by using subsidiary companies is never going to be known. The numbers they release to the public are not necessarily including all the data. Accountants take facts and make fiction from it, that's our job.

And Sony is doing just fine on the cash side, they can afford a temporary hit. Over $10bil goes a long way.
Again the Xbox 360 core system does not cost $500 to make. It costs less then $400 and sells for $300.
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Old 04-28-06, 10:13 AM
  #233  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
Again the Xbox 360 core system does not cost $500 to make. It costs less then $400 and sells for $300.
Where do you get this info? Please post a link or something.

Also, IF anyone is going to compare the 360 to PS3, it is more like the Premium since supposedly Sony is going to include a 60gb hd (or is that not true anymore?).
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Old 04-28-06, 10:21 AM
  #234  
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Originally Posted by RockStrongo
Where do you get this info? Please post a link or something.
Well since financial analysts and companies like Meryl Lynch are not good enough, what source could it be?

Speaking of sources....
I was telling a guy about the advantages of LCD monitors over CRT ones a few years ago. He told me "someone" told him LCD monitors were crap, etc.. I asked who. He gave an embarrased laugh. I finally got the name: Woodpecker. Some guy named "Woodpecker" told him. Guess that settles it, then.
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Old 04-28-06, 10:25 AM
  #235  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
Again the Xbox 360 core system does not cost $500 to make. It costs less then $400 and sells for $300.
Who cares? The more complete system is the only one comparable to a PS3. YOU are the one claiming $500 cost for the other. I'm simply saying you can't take that number and add the cost of a BD drive, like many people here have done.
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Old 05-02-06, 08:16 PM
  #236  
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
We're talking about kids and older adults, not the kind of people who own a videogame machine. Its not going to be a huge draw for you because you are buying the disk for the high definition video and audio. For kids, that's not a big deal. They don't care if Bambi is in HD, they just want Bambi.
If this is Sony's strategy then they are truly doomed to fail. If they do not covet the buyer who wants a copy of a film with the best possible presentation of audio and video then they should pack it the fuck in right now and start churning out HD discs.

People buy PS2s and GameCubes to play video games, not DVD players. 99% of people could give a damn about these features.

I have been out of it for a few days and I have found this thread extremely interesting. What I find so funny is the realization that many are coming to about the Sony fanboys. Jimmy is an absolute schill and his opinion is totally dismissable and has no merit. His statements are so over the top and filled with hyperbole and unbackable opinion he is a total joke. What I have seen from the start is the HD supporters are not really even HD supporters, but more those with open minds that there are three possibilities 1. Sony wins and HD is the Beta of the new millenium. 2. HD wins and Sony once again launches a turd into the market or 3. Both formats gain a foothold and prosper. I feel like most labelled by the Sony Zealots as "HD supporters" feel like option #3 is probably going to be the reality. In the Sony mind, there is only the first option. They grasp at straws when any evidence is presented that threatens their idea of the future. "Lower prioce has no bearing!" "Fox and Disney won't flip like they did in the DIVX days!" "1080P is the endgame, even though most sets in use can't display it" etc etc etc.

I guess I fall in as a HD supporter since I think both formats will survive side by side. But in a big way, as I said before, I would almost love to see Sony fail in a big way just to make certain people eat shit.

Finally, there is no way no way no way NO WAY PS3 is coming for less than $500, and probably more. If they launch the system that low, have fun applying the ice to your asses because you will get reamed on the software pricing.

Again, for the recored, unless something changes like Kojima switching to 360, I am in for a PS3 at some point.
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Old 05-02-06, 08:29 PM
  #237  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
Microsoft lost about $120 on every Xbox 360 sold. So yeah if it costs $400 then Sony will be loosing far more then Microsoft did. Then again Microsoft only had games to make up on royalties while Sony has both games and Blu-Ray movies to make up the hardware losses so its entirely possible the Playstation 3 could be sold at a higher loss then any game console in history.
What you are suggesting here is that each piece of BR software (both game and hardware) will have an additional charge (which each piece of XB360 software does), which would then make the software more expensive than the corresponding HD software. Yet another feather in HD's cap if your ass-backward thinking were accurate.

It may be best not to have a battle of wits when you are unarmed.
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Old 05-02-06, 09:05 PM
  #238  
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
What you are suggesting here is that each piece of BR software (both game and hardware) will have an additional charge (which each piece of XB360 software does), which would then make the software more expensive than the corresponding HD software. Yet another feather in HD's cap if your ass-backward thinking were accurate.

It may be best not to have a battle of wits when you are unarmed.
The creater of the format always gets royalty fees. That would not add to the cost of the software. Warner I believe gets royalties on all DVDs even those made by other studios. Sony could get a similar situations if Blu-Ray wins.

I don't see any need to engage in personal attacks. Responding to such rudeness would only give it merit.
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Old 05-02-06, 11:40 PM
  #239  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345

I don't see any need to engage in personal attacks. Responding to such rudeness would only give it merit.
Too late. You just did.
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Old 05-03-06, 05:30 AM
  #240  
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Originally Posted by Jimmy 345
The creater of the format always gets royalty fees. That would not add to the cost of the software. Warner I believe gets royalties on all DVDs even those made by other studios. Sony could get a similar situations if Blu-Ray wins.

I don't see any need to engage in personal attacks. Responding to such rudeness would only give it merit.
BUT THAT IS NOT WHAT YOU SAID!

YOU SAID that Sony could take losses on the PS3 hardware and make it up in licensing fees for software, which is a standard videogame practice. YOU SUGGESTED that they could extend the additional fees to the BR movie software.

The company has to recoup its losses somewhere. If they lose $250 on every console, then they need to make that dough back on the software side. If a non-gaming consumer is forced to subsidize a game system they do not play when buying software for their twice-as-expensive movie playing deck, I think they might be a wee bit unhappy.

Unless you are planning on dual releases, on PS3 compatibke, on not to make sure the fees only hit those using the discs in PS3s.

If Sony follows through as you suggested they will not only have a player that has a huge gap in price to its competetor, but they will also have software that is similarly higher priced than the corresponding competing product.

It would be over in months if that were the case.
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Old 05-03-06, 12:41 PM
  #241  
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
If this is Sony's strategy then they are truly doomed to fail.
You quoted what I said about Disney, and then equated that as Sony strategy?

Don't misquote me, just come up with a decent arguement.
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Old 05-03-06, 01:27 PM
  #242  
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You cited the BD-J features as a trump card in the format war, and I am saying that 99% of people don't give a damn about specail features. BD-J is a special feature. If Sony is tying their horse to this feature being their savior, and worth an extra $500, then as I said, pack it in now and get an HD license.
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Old 05-03-06, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
You cited the BD-J features as a trump card in the format war, and I am saying that 99% of people don't give a damn about specail features. BD-J is a special feature. If Sony is tying their horse to this feature being their savior, and worth an extra $500, then as I said, pack it in now and get an HD license.
I did not say it was a trump card, I merely said it was better than iHD. Something that was doubted but I showed how it was better and could be used by a company like Disney. You HD-DVD people will spin anything negative, won't you?
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Old 05-03-06, 10:01 PM
  #244  
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
You HD-DVD people will spin anything negative, won't you?
This format war is comedy gold.
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Old 05-03-06, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
I did not say it was a trump card, I merely said it was better than iHD. Something that was doubted but I showed how it was better and could be used by a company like Disney. You HD-DVD people will spin anything negative, won't you?
And typically if I am not wearing a Sowny Pwns! button, I am a HD supporter. I have said again and again and again that I am impartial. I have no deck. I am waiting to see both side by side. I have no stake in this.

The Sony Zealots take the slightest dose of reality that clashes with their position and they spin it to hyperbole.

I never said one was better than the other. If you read what I said, I know complex concept, you'll see I said that 99% of consumers don't give a damn about special features. I have heard over and over "if I want a game, I'll buy a PS2."

To me, neither one of these technologies is going to be the oomph to push one or the other ahead.

Damn open your mind.
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Old 05-04-06, 12:50 AM
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I hardly think that video quality will look much different, especially when 99% of TVs out there cant accept a 1080p signal to begin with. So picture quality will most likely be nearly identical. The difference is how many players will be in homes and how much software is available. If sony puts even 3 million PS3s out in stores by fiscal year 06 (half what they plan on), i dont think HD-DVD will look anywhere NEAR as nifty to the studios. Youve got 3-500k (i doubt it will even reach that high) HD-DVD Players in homes around the world, and you've got 3+ million (probably more) Blu-Ray players in homes. This is not even counting all the stand alone players that will be out.

Its just the #s game. When you can release high end software that works on a machine that is out in drones AND stand alone systems, it makes the choice to back it that much easier. Not to mention, the casual PS3 user could get the system just for games, then bam, here comes Superman/X-Men 3 in Blu-Ray at best buy for 19.99, and you will see them making those sales since they already have the player at home. Thats how sony plans to take over, and its a juggernaut thats a force to be reckoned with.
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Old 05-04-06, 04:09 AM
  #247  
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The PS3 being in many homes doesn't mean much if few people are buying the BR movies. The PS3 is a gaming rig and most people will purchase it for gaming. Stand-alone players are the key because when people purchase those, they're purchasing them to view movies.

The PSP sold pretty well but the UMD format is failing.

It's going to be hard for most people who want a stand-alone HD player to justify spending $1,000+ for Blu-Ray when there's a HD-DVD player for $500.
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Old 05-04-06, 04:46 AM
  #248  
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If Toshiba manage to ramp up production on the A1 and lower costs to the point they are making a profit the competing CE manufacturers will have to adjust their prices to compete. Is there any indication they can't do that? Right now we have had in the region of 10,000 units sold (according to everything I've read), which doesn't seem very significant in the greater scheme of things.

BTW I'm still not sure why anyone thinks HD DVD players are any cheaper to manufacture than BD players. Is this line of reasoning based solely on the A1's price to consumers?

BTW2 it's clear the average consumer does care for special features or the Hollywood studios wouldn't now release nearly all their DVDs with this content. Looking back we have gone from "scene access" as a special feature, to the plethora of options we are now assaulted with. Clearly the sales of discs with these extras must be higher than those without or the studios wouldn't go to the expense of adding so much to even the most worthless movie. Special Edition releases of previously available movies are another indication that the general public places a good deal of emphasis on value added content (extras).
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Old 05-04-06, 07:34 AM
  #249  
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Originally Posted by Blitz6Speed
I hardly think that video quality will look much different, especially when 99% of TVs out there cant accept a 1080p signal to begin with. So picture quality will most likely be nearly identical. The difference is how many players will be in homes and how much software is available. If sony puts even 3 million PS3s out in stores by fiscal year 06 (half what they plan on), i dont think HD-DVD will look anywhere NEAR as nifty to the studios. Youve got 3-500k (i doubt it will even reach that high) HD-DVD Players in homes around the world, and you've got 3+ million (probably more) Blu-Ray players in homes. This is not even counting all the stand alone players that will be out.

Its just the #s game. When you can release high end software that works on a machine that is out in drones AND stand alone systems, it makes the choice to back it that much easier. Not to mention, the casual PS3 user could get the system just for games, then bam, here comes Superman/X-Men 3 in Blu-Ray at best buy for 19.99, and you will see them making those sales since they already have the player at home. Thats how sony plans to take over, and its a juggernaut thats a force to be reckoned with.
OK but then if they look at the ratio of software purchases to hardware purchases, they will likely be very even.

As I said, everyone that buys an HD deck will buy HD-DVD media. Everyone that buys a dedicated BR deck will buy BR media. NOT everyone that buys a PS3 will buy BR media, and I would venture to say that at least 50% or more of the target for PS3 (the PS2 crowd) are not playing their systems on HDTVs.

I agree that the PS3 will increase installed base, but I am sure that media sales are just as, if not more important that deck sales in the early stages.

I also REALLY doubt that Sony will get that many PS3s out there in that time period. More smoke and mirrors.
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Old 05-04-06, 07:39 AM
  #250  
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
BTW2 it's clear the average consumer does care for special features or the Hollywood studios wouldn't now release nearly all their DVDs with this content.
Really? Then why does nearly every major release come in two flavors now, a standard version and two disc "SE"? Retailers stock probably 75:1 on these two flavors. When I talk to acquaintances and bemoan the fact that the SE of a given film is $5-10 more the invariably say "I don't care, I just get it to watch the movie."
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