I've watched DVD movies since 1999, and I can watch them for another 6 years if need be. In fact, I've seen DVDs on my friend's HDTV, and goddamn, they look great. Yes, a high def DVD will look so much better, but for now, I can live just fine watching DVDs on a HDTV.

And another thing. DVDs are cheap. I sense it will be a very long time before the execs of these companies get their act together and present a great package for their consumers.

There are many sources (a few in this thread) indicating that the HD dvd players will be cheaper because the blu-ray players incoporate more current technology. I am sorry but the average consumer is not going to spend more on a player than they do for a tv. Most people don't even have a tv that will benefit from an HD player. Also, rentals will suffer because prices will go up as movies are goign to cost more. DVD sales are going to cost more too and torn between 2 formats is going to add confusion. If consumers were smart they wouldn't buy anything and in that way fight back and force manufactuers to agree on one format. It's a flashback to the old beta / VHS war.....oh and FYI beta format was far superior to VHS but lost!

As an aside I wouldn't be suprised if movie ticket sales boom in the next yr.

Ummm...but there is one format? No way in hell HD-DVD is going to launch. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

If the studios were smart, they'd stop making regular DVD movies OR they'd make the Blu-ray version cheaper.

Not likely. Did you notice what the Tower records guy said in the article posted by speedy1961 above?:

Cassidy said it is imperative the new format be marketed to consumers as a premium — not commodity — product.

“It is important that there not be a race to the bottom regarding pricing as occurred with DVD,” he said. “We need a format the consumer can recognize as a value-add.”

I would guess that Blu-ray or HD-DVD discs will be sold at premium prices for a few years at least.

I guess I can't read because all I see is that the discs could be manufactured cheaper (and the idea that having a PS3 priced at $500 with Blu-Ray playback capability could be a potential boon for that format). The articles I have seen published this month about Toshiba's new player quote a $1,000 price point, which is what Blu-Ray players have said to cost, as well.

Though, again, manufacturing costs don't determine the price whether it's the media or the player. Companies will charge what the market will bear.

Proof will be in teh results....if I hook up an HD dvd format with an $$ player and it barely looks better than the setup I have now, Why bother.....

So it seems Sony is stuck. If they release the PS3 with BR capabilities at a competitive price to other consoles they will have to be nearly 1/2 the price of stand-alone BR players. Hence pissing off all those that sided with them to make BR the format winner. If they don't include BR playback then they lied about their format being in "millions of homes" due to the PS3 as a reason to choose BR over HD-DVD. Am I missing something here???

As far as the BR dvd being a premium "value-added" product I think that is a bad idea. It will be hard enough to convince alot of people, NOT JUST J6P, to jump on the EXPENSIVE bandwagon. As alot of people have already mentioned, the super audio DVDs were suppose to be a premium audio product.

You're not missing anything.

I think they'll just go with the first, and not give two shits about screwing over the other companies that sided with them.

They're also working against their own interests, in that case. Sony themselves will be marketing $2,000 standalone Blu-Ray players. Who's going to buy one?

I agree with digitalfreaknyc.

I myself have over 4000 DVDs at present count and the audio side ( from MY perspective) has been lacking.

I do not own a HDTV set but will be looking to upgrade to one in the next 5 years.

Hardcore videophile early adopter types. Those are the only people that are going to buy standalone players regardless of the PS3.

The HD formats aren't going to catch on for a long time in the mainstream. Probably never IMHO.

The selling point for HD-DVD was that discs could be manufactured using current DVD making equipment, at a predictable and low cost. The Blu-ray discs will require new machinery and have an as yet undetermined cost of manufacture. Hence this from the article in speedy1961's post 219 above:

When it became clear that Blu-ray was launching at the very least as a component of PlayStation 3 regardless of the plans or support for HD DVD, Warner execs decided they wanted to have input into Blu-ray.

They got that through a couple of important concessions from Blu-ray. The format will now include a low-cost red-laser option that will allow studios to create a Blu-ray version of the DVD-9, a “BD9.” Cardwell said that since the costs of manufacturing blue-laser-based Blu-ray discs “are unknown to us,” Warner wanted to ensure there was some level of expenses the studio could more accurately project.

The option is essentially the same one Warner proposed to both the Blu-ray and HD DVD camps more than three years ago, but which Blu-ray previously rejected.

The studio plans to use the red-laser option for shorter programs that don’t require all the storage capacity of a blue-laser disc or for budget-priced titles that might not justify the higher costs.

It appears that there will be a way to make a lower capacity disc, of known manufacturing cost, that will play in a Blu-ray machine. But that is not to say that regular Blu-ray discs will be inexpensive to make; quite the opposite, most likely.

This, of course, is the salient point. Current DVDs are very cheap to manufacture but that has little or no bearing on the pricing. Only if Blu-ray discs were very expensive to make would some of that cost have to be passed on to the customers so that studios and retailers could have the markup they want for their products.

I completely disagree. HD is here to stay and is the way everything is moving. It's not going to stay at something as low rez as DVD forever.

I think it will stay, but it won't be the top selling format. It will just sell enough to stick around.

Most people think DVD looks fantastic and have no desire to upgrade. Just like CDs. DVD-A and SA-CDs sound better, most people don't care.

People ditched VHS not just because DVD looked and sounded better, but that it did that and had no rewinding, instant scene access, extra features, durability, etc. on top of the a/v leap.

I just don't see something that only improves audio and video being a hit with joe six pack and every dethroning DVD.

I'm confident 20 years down the road every mainstream movie will still be available on DVD. Just like every album is available on CD today 25+ years after the format debuted.

While I completely see where you're coming from, I think you're underestimating Joe 6-pack. I have friends who don't have a ton of money but cannot WAIT to get a plasma screen and know all about HDTV. They know what it looks like and know how gorgeous it looks. If it starts to get marketed to them and they see the difference between what it looks like on DVD and then on HD, they're going to want what's better. We're reaching this weird period where home theaters are becoming a sign of status. It's as if it's the new "toy" that everyone has to show off. I see people of all different classes buying home theater systems whereas it used to only be a high end interest. People are really clamouring for what is new and looks better and sounds better. Although DVD can look great on an HDTV, you can definitely see the difference between something on a DVD and an HD broadcast. I would go so far as to say it's night and day especially when you see them side by side. And if you put that information out there, J6P is going to want to buy...as long as it's affordable as well.
Neither of the formats you mentioned was promoted nearly as much as I assume an HD format will be.

NYC people (and other big cities), even J6P's there, are going to be more hip on technology that people in non-urban areas.

Promotion will be wait and see, but price will be the killer. The players are going to be expensive for a few years, the TVs are still expensive (dropping but still out of most peoples range for one of a decent size) and I see no way the discs will be as cheap as DVDs.

Especially the big releases that the use as loss leaders.

Time will tell I guess.

I don't care one way or the other as I just dont' care much about audio and video and won't be replacing many discs. When ever I pick up an HDTV and the bluray players are cheap I'll pick one up and start buying new discs on it and rebuy some essentials like star wars and lotr.

So basically you're saying that less than $1000 is still really expensive for a TV?

And that you don't care about audio or video...you just care about having a big collection of movies. Doesn't matter what you play them on.

Huh. I'll get back to you when I find the sense in all that.

It's called I enjoy the actual content of the films and thus I buy the DVDs. I don't buy them for the A/V specs. All I need is a good clear picture, and 5.1 sound. DVDs give me that. I hate audio/videophiles who care more about that crap that the actual content of the movie.

Also given that I've had a DVD player since 1998 and have only 195 or so DVDs(probably 10 or so of which are music) hardly classifies as a big collection IMO.

Anything over $300 is more than most people can afford for a TV. I couldn't afford a new TV period if mine broke now. I'd just have to do without as I'm on a tight Ph D student budget. Plus if you note my above post, I said HDTVs were still expensive for one of any size. I don't see the point in buying one sub 40 inches at the smallest. I'd rather stay with my 27" Wega until prices drop or I'm making more money and can afford a large set. Since I don't care much about video quality, and mainly want the size upgrade eventually, there's not point in shelling out $600-1000 on a 30 inch or so HDTV

Please understand not everyone who is waiting for HD feels this way. Just because a person might want a closer experience to what the director intended does not mean they don't care about the plot of said movie.

I'm sure many would care if director's started shooting on HandyCams! Then again, it certainly would save mucho bucks for the studios on film and camera costs ....

Good Luck! I'm a few classes away from graduating and can't wait.

I'll agree with this. I have a 30" Phillips for my bedroom that I bought used at a very good price. I'll also add that HDTV prices have been falling like rocks and will continue to do so for sometime. A lot of the ultra expensive big screens will be very affordable in the next few years as the industry is moving toward mainly flat panels, not to mention many companies are going to start massive pushing of 1080p sets into the market. It wasn't that long ago that a 40 inch plasma was around 8 grand. Seems like a giant waste given current prices.

Oh I know. I was just directing it at the comment that it didn't make sense to not care about A/V quality, and yet have a "large" collection.

I know most people love movies and just want them in the best possible A/V presentation.

I just can't stand when the occassional rare person can't seem to get how someone can enjoy a movie on DVD if there's a better looking and sounding version out there.

Makes no sense to me. The movies are what everyone should be buying dvds, blu ray etc for. The A/V quality is secondary, and is just the icing on the cake.

Looking and it like digitalfreaknyc is kind of missing the forest for the trees IMO and losing sight of what's important.

Sorry Josh. I'm not going to settle for second best.

Yes, I enjoy what I have. But if "better" is out there and I can afford it, I want it.

Again, having grown up with laserdiscs and switching over to DVD, I can't wait to get back to that sound.

Not only are movies my passion but this is also a hobby and as such, the collecting aspect of it will not go away. It will just transfer to whichever medium is out there.

And I wouldn't judge my point of view simply because it's different from yours. As has been debated before, HDTV's ain't that expensive and the people that bitch that they can't afford them are the same people paying x amount of dollars every month on DVD's. I'd rather be watching them on something bigger and hold off on buying some than suffer on a 20" tv.

I'm not judging your point of view, I was just taken aback by your comment that my point of view didn't make sense.

You were the one judging others points of views.

And again, I'm on a Ph D student budget, have 195 dvds, and have had a DVD player since X-mas 1998. So I certainly don't spend much per month on DVDs. Especially now as I only buy 1 or 2 a month on average, and often have gone a month or two without buying any this year.

So I can't afford an HDTV and can't afford to buy a ton of DVDs. Your logic only applies to people with huge collections who really are spending a lot on DVDs every month. And that's simply a minority of people. Even here on DVD Talk it seems like those with the huge collections here also have HDTVs or projectors. So I'd say that point is just a bad guess on your part.

I'm sure there are a few exceptions where people do fit yoru rule and could save up for an HDTV buy buying a few less DVDs a month. But not nearly enough to generalize the point.

Anyway, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I've never been a collector of anything. I buy dvds because I love movies. They are more than good enough for me, and as I said I'll eventually start buying new movies on blu ray and replace some essentials like LOTR and SW, but that's it because I'm perfectly happy with DVD otherwise and don't feel like I'm "settling" for anything.

From our friends at Video Business, a round-robins view of the format war:

EARLY MARKET FOR HIGH-DEF UNSURE
Need to reach more than early adopters
By Chris Gennusa 10/31/2005

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Until some basic questions are answered, it will remain unclear whether high-definition discs represents a watershed opportunity for Hollywood.

Chief among uncertainties:

• How many current DVD enthusiasts need to migrate to the next generation to make the investment worthwhile for studios and hardware makers?

• How many consumers will hold out until inexpensive high-def players and TV sets come to market?

"It's always a very calculated decision to invest in a new format," said Victor Matsuda, a Sony exec with the Blu-ray Disc Group. "What's best for the consumer [will be Sony's] fundamental principle."

Independent media analyst Dennis McAlpine estimates that likely early adopters represent just 5% of the prospective market for any emerging technology.

"They will go and buy the newest technology," McAlpine observed.

But more than just early adopters need to shell out for high-def players before the format turns profitable, he added. Suppliers might have to capture 20% to 25% of the current DVD market to start seeing high-def profits, the analyst estimated.

"HDTVs need to get big first," McAlpine said. "Consumers [might have] to buy a high-def player and [high-def] TV, [so] it may take longer for [high-def discs] to start turning big profits."

Unsurprisingly, hardware makers claim consumers won't be turned off by the premium price tag--likely upward of $1,000 at a minimum--of first-generation high-def DVD players. Some simply expect the benefits such as better picture, more interactivity and enhanced special features will prove compelling selling points.

"Consumers, when they see an HD DVD playing, tell me, 'My DVDs don't look like that,'" says Mark Knox, advisor with Toshiba's HD DVD promotion division. "The next generation of DVD presents a lot of new business opportunities. For instance, hardware retailers may be able to sell new sound systems along with HD DVD players."

Knox added that the price of HD DVD players might come down pretty quickly as succeeding generations of HD DVD players will be built with fewer parts.

For the small independent retailers, studios might have to offer very attractive revenue sharing deals to make it worthwhile for the mom and pops to quickly jump on board. Consider retailer Bob Achille, who doesn't expect long lines at his cash register when next-generation DVDs initially hit the market.

"There was much less confusion when DVD came out, because it was mostly a physical change exactly like [the] CD [transition] that audio went through years earlier," said Achille, owner of Video 7 in Shelton, Conn.

"It was easy to accept since it was priced lower than VHS. [High-def] is confusing the hell out of consumers," he recalled. "They confuse it mostly with the timing of mandatory digital TV signals. Of course, HDTV is not mandatory, and HDTVs [that] consumers are buying aren't being fed HDTV signals very often."

An early morning addendum from Video Business:

HIGH-DEF RIVALS IN RACE TO MARKET
HD DVD faces fewer technical hurdles
By Paul Sweeting 10/31/2005

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Despite onetime promises of a speedier launch, both the HD DVD camp and the Blu-ray Disc group now are focused on 2006 as the dawn of the high-definition era.

HD DVD boosters say hardware and movies will be available by March; and the Blu-ray camp … well, proponents don't specify when their system will be available, except to say definitely in 2006.

The ever-slipping launch dates, along with the shifting alliances of companies supporting the two standards, inevitably raise questions about how close either format is to being ready for commercial rollout. Few outside the companies directly involved in the formats' development have seen anything beyond prototype players and a few, essentially hand-encoded demo discs.

Toshiba says it will begin commercial production of HD DVD players in December. Sony hasn't provided a date yet for Blu-ray players to start rolling off the line, but if the company expects to include Blu-ray technology in PlayStation 3 consoles when the videogame format launches in the spring, it had better get the Blu-ray factories going soon.

So how realistic is either side's plan for a 2006 launch?

From a technical perspective, the format closest to being ready for launch is HD DVD.

The blue laser used by both formats will require a new type of laser diode and a new optical pickup, but the rest of the guts of an HD DVD player will be pretty much the same as a standard DVD player. HD DVD discs also are essentially the same as standard DVD discs from a manufacturing perspective, though some new mastering equipment will be required.

The biggest question mark hovering over HD DVD launch plans involves the matter of studio support.

Warner, Paramount and Universal have said they will release HD DVD movies as soon as hardware is available in the U.S., but Warner and Paramount have said recently they also will support Blu-ray. So, although studios might be contractually committed to releasing a few titles on HD DVD to support the format's launch, it's unclear how far they'll go beyond that.

Still, Blu-ray's targeting of even a 2006 launch could prove problematic.

After all, the format isn't set yet, with moves afoot to change its interactive engine from a system based on the Java programming language to one developed specifically for optical discs by Microsoft and Disney. There also are proposals to tweak the copy-protection scheme and to add an entirely new capability to create low-cost, short-form high-def discs based on existing red-laser technology.

Until such wrinkles are ironed out, a hardware manufacturer would be pretty foolish to start building Blu-ray boxes.

Meantime, Sony is under intense competitive pressure from other videogame platforms to launch PlayStation 3 as soon as possible and says PS3 consoles will be able to play Blu-ray movies in addition to games. How it's going to pull all that off, it hasn't yet said.

Another major hurdle for Blu-ray Disc concerns the discs themselves, whose thin depth present special manufacturing hurdles many feel have yet to be completely overcome. For, though all of the new processes that go into making a Blu-ray disc might work as planned in a lab, getting them to work in a high-speed, commercial replicating plant could take a lot of trial and error--and a lot of time to fine-tune.

Were it not for the competition from HD DVD, Blu-ray backers would almost certainly be planning for a 2007 launch, rather than 2006.

Perhaps these people just like to watch films and aren't that concerned with the best possible A/V quality? Which goes back to what Josh is saying. Personally, I have a fairly high end system and I have absolutely no plan to replace my entire DVD collection. While the better A/V would be nice, knowing that I'm not watching the best possible audio/video presentation by no means affects my enjoyment of the film.