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DVD: doom, gloom or boom?

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DVD: doom, gloom or boom?

Old 07-01-05, 12:19 PM
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DVD: doom, gloom or boom?

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Do two missteps make a trend?

That's what some Wall Street analysts were asking themselves Friday after Pixar Animation Studios, the seemingly invincible movie animation studio, lowered its second-quarter profit forecast on softer-than-expected The Incredibles DVD sales. Pixar (down $6.31 to $43.74, Research) shares, which hit a 52-week high in early June, tumbled 11 percent on the news, released after markets closed Thursday.

In May, Pixar arch rival DreamWorks Animation (up $0.04 to $26.24, Research) jolted investors when it disclosed that 5 million unsold copies of "Shrek 2" on DVD caused the studio to miss first-quarter earnings forecasts by 25 percent. DreamWorks stock has since slid to $26.20, a 32 percent drop since the company's "Shrek 2" bombshell on May 10.

Analysts concluded at that time that the miss by DreamWorks was an isolated event. Still new to the Wall Street game after going public in October 2004, DreamWorks executives had made a clumsy mistake not warning investors sooner that it had overestimated demand for the "Shrek 2" DVD.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/01/tech...ex.htm?cnn=yes
Old 07-01-05, 01:02 PM
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I'd be curious to know what the "expected" sales were for both releases. Regardless, I think what's happened is a combination of DVD sales hitting a plateu and the market just being really flooded with titles. People are being more selective with their purchasing now that their choices are so vast. TV on DVD sales seem to still be increasing, but I have a feeling it will stall either later this year or early next year.
Old 07-01-05, 01:06 PM
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I think Disney/Pixar just flat out shipped too many to retail. At my store alone, we received something like 300 copies, which would have been fine by itself, but then Disney continued to ship another 200 or so to us as the release week went on. We still had alot of the original shipment sitting around while these new cases arrived. I think we are still overstocked by about 100 copies at the moment.
Old 07-01-05, 10:53 PM
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Originally Posted by joshualane
I'd be curious to know what the "expected" sales were for both releases. Regardless, I think what's happened is a combination of DVD sales hitting a plateu and the market just being really flooded with titles. People are being more selective with their purchasing now that their choices are so vast. TV on DVD sales seem to still be increasing, but I have a feeling it will stall either later this year or early next year.
You really think people are buying fewer titles these days? They're so cheap now. In June I bought 8-10 DVDs, mostly cheap catalog titles, and that would have been unheard of for me a few years ago. I know some people can buy that many in a week, but not me. I see movies on the shelf that I wouldn't think about spending $12-18 for, but since they're $5-7 or whatever, I pick them up.

I do agree that the market is flooded with titles, and the competition did take away from sales of these. Maybe those cheap catalog titles are also a factor, and they're being more selective about new titles. Maybe people think, "why should I spend $15-20 for this when I could get 3 movies for the same price?"

Also, The Incredibles was released in March. Is that a strong period for DVD sales? I would think not, at least compared to the holidays. As for Shrek 2, I'm still amazed that took in $400 million or so at the box office, and maybe they just overestimated the demand based on that.
Old 07-02-05, 12:49 AM
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I don't think it really means anything about DVDs. They just overestimated their product.
Old 07-02-05, 12:43 PM
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I think they overestimated as well. Perhaps they thought more people would be buying DVD players for the holidays and it would result in more sales, and tried to prepare, and used past modles to guage how many copies to release.

Maybe people are feeling a burn out on buying DVDs brand new and having better editions come along a few months later. I know I have slowed down on buying new DVDs for that reason. Another reason might be because, even though they are cheap the first week they are out, it's not unusual to see a lot of titles ten bucks or lower in the coming months at retailers like Target. I am sure that plays into people deciding to not latch on to a new title the first week out as well.
Old 07-02-05, 02:14 PM
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Sort of related:

Has anyone seen the new BBV ad where this couple decide to rent now that they don't have to worry about late fees? One rationalization that they try to sell viewers on is that owning the discs was starting to take over their homes.

LOL! They should stop by here some day!
Old 07-02-05, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Drexl
You really think people are buying fewer titles these days?
I'm buying less this year than I have in the last 5 or so years, easily. It's pretty much come down to I have most of the older titles I want.

And DVDs could be had much cheaper about 5 years ago on the internet - that's when I built up most of my collection.
Old 07-02-05, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by calhoun07
Maybe people are feeling a burn out on buying DVDs brand new and having better editions come along a few months later. I know I have slowed down on buying new DVDs for that reason. Another reason might be because, even though they are cheap the first week they are out, it's not unusual to see a lot of titles ten bucks or lower in the coming months at retailers like Target. I am sure that plays into people deciding to not latch on to a new title the first week out as well.
That describes my current purchasing habits pretty well, actually. If a movie was a reasonable box office hit and doesn't get a great SE on initial release, I don't bite. I wait at least 6 months to find out if something better is coming, and if not, the price has usually dropped by then to something a little more reasonable than $19.99 (or the used market is now flooded and I can pick it up for like $6). Where they nail me is when the initial DVD is pretty packed, but then they surprise me with a mega-loaded edition down the line (like Gladiator).
Old 07-02-05, 10:14 PM
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I think DVD sales in general will be declining, there's alot of factors such as renting and DVD burners becoming much cheaper. also with the prospect of High Definition DVDs coming.

For me, it was a personal change, since I just started to realize that posessions were meaningless. i didnt want to accumulate things anymore.
I know for myself I just rent movies now, i had like hundreds of DVDs then realized that with Netflix if i wanted to watch a movie again, i could just rent it again. I think I've spent probably 8000 bucks on dvds over the past 6 years. man...i should of invested that money. i would buy dvds without even watching them in theaters or anything. selling all my dvds arent really an option either since the market for that is so cheap unless i want to sell my OOP movies. so i've been stuck at around 400 dvds for a while now. i've bought one dvd since, the LOTR: ROTK SE to complete my set..and i have yet to open it, haha.
Old 07-03-05, 12:27 AM
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What a vague thread title....

At any rate, I've been collecting DVDs for so long now I think the novelty has worn off. Combine that with a few bad blind buys and I prefer to rent now. I can hire out new releases for $1 anyway so I don't feel like I'm getting good value by buying the discs anymore.
Old 07-03-05, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by The Cow
I'm buying less this year than I have in the last 5 or so years, easily. It's pretty much come down to I have most of the older titles I want.
Not me. Just look at recent shopping lists for me and it's easy to see that there are TONS of finally released titles that are essential for my library. This coming week is no exception. Hell, my Film Noir titles are just now coming around in the last few months, not to mention all the rest. I guess it's just sweeter since my range of essentials is so wide and represented so well with all the major genres and sub-genres. There are so many yet to be released it's not even fucking funny. I just hit 2000 titles and thank Christ I still have 3 empty shelves in the vault...they will be needed.

You really think people are buying fewer titles these days? They're so cheap now. In June I bought 8-10 DVDs, mostly cheap catalog titles, and that would have been unheard of for me a few years ago.
I'm still buying 7 to 10 every week....and not just to buy them because I can't control it, either. The titles are needed for my library and I've been waiting for years.


Maybe people are feeling a burn out on buying DVDs brand new and having better editions come along a few months later. I know I have slowed down on buying new DVDs for that reason.
Not here...I could really care less. I think I'm a good judge for myself when it comes to buying the right title at the right time. Usually, the right time for me is ASAP. Not always....but often.

I think DVD sales in general will be declining, there's alot of factors such as renting and DVD burners becoming much cheaper. also with the prospect of High Definition DVDs coming.
None of the above effect my decisions. I despise renting and the next format puts NO fear into me at all. Jesus, I could be fucking dead next week....why wait and hold out and hope? Wait another 8 years for that obscure title to make it....IF EVER? What a waste of time.

I've been collecting DVDs for so long now I think the novelty has worn off.
Collecting my fave films, concerts and TV shows and the thrill of it...will never wear off, for me. And I really don't give a shit what format it's on.

Last edited by gutwrencher; 07-03-05 at 10:28 AM.
Old 07-03-05, 10:29 AM
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I never got into collecting films, I just by movies I like and will watch over and over. My buying has slowed down some, but mainly because I have most of the catalog titles I wanted (which wasn't a huge list to begin with as I'm not into "classics".)

But I still never bought at a rate comparable to a most people here. I got a player for X-mas in 1998 and still haven't hit 200 DVDs yet, somewhere in the 180's at the moment.
Old 07-03-05, 11:27 AM
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In general I'm buying less lately, mostly due to poor b&m prices but also because I'm a bit more selective after a few trips to used shops to unload unwatched dvds and/or games. Things like the DDD sale or the B2G1 Free sale at Barnes & Noble tend to get me to buy more than normal but even then I don't buy "just anything."
Old 07-03-05, 11:32 AM
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I have around 80 DVDs and have recently got the itch to expand my collection. I like collecting them but I am really frugal about it. I NEVER buy a dvd when it's first released due to the price & the fear of a re-release. I don't have a lot of money in my budget for DVDs so I want to make sure I get the best deals possible. My main criteria for buying a DVD is if it is a movie I really liked and a movie that I want to watch again on a moment's notice. I don't see the point of collecting them just to add another title to my library. For those who have 1000+ in their collection, how do you ever find the time to watch them all?? I suppose most of them you don't ever watch & what's the point of that? Not that I'm being judgemental as if I could afford it I might very well be the same way....
Old 07-03-05, 05:24 PM
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Gutwrencher makes some points I live by as well. I could be dead next week, if a movie comes out I feel I just have to have I buy it NOW. I have no desire to wait for the HD-DVD debacle to smooth itself out when DVD picture and sound quality is as high as what it has become.

First we get the studios whining about movie attendance, and now they're lamenting the fact that they overestimated sales of a few titles......Jesus. Are they gonna b*itch when they don't sell as many players and discs as they would like at premium prices? My guess is they will. The industry needs to peer out of their glass towers every once in awhile. Gas prices go up every few weeks, whereas the average worker's wages don't.
Old 07-03-05, 06:07 PM
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Originally Posted by DoubleDownAgain
I don't see the point of collecting them just to add another title to my library. For those who have 1000+ in their collection, how do you ever find the time to watch them all??
But you yourself just said the key word....library. Then you say collection. Which is it? There is a difference. I own a library. What is a library for? Shoving everything down your throat as fast as you can...until you choke on it? I think not. My library is for enjoyment, education and research...anytime....now, or 10 years down the road. Just because a new format is about ready to street...it does not mean that the current library will be useless....thats crazypanic talk. Why does everyone feel the need to watch it all...all the time? I just don't get it. At any public library, you can find books on the shelf that have not been checked out in a year or more. Does that mean they are worthless as information or enjoyment?

It's not like I'm a teenager on a limited budget, or an out of work boozer. I'm a stable 40+ year old who happens to run and own a small company which provides cash tips on an almost daily basis. Thats what I spend on dvds. I'm not going to feel guilty about it. I work 60+ hours a week and bust my ass....I deserve anything I want.

BTW....time to watch can be budgeted just like $. You just have to know how to do it. I viddey films every day and still have time for everything else. It's all a matter of choice.

Last edited by gutwrencher; 07-03-05 at 06:14 PM.
Old 07-04-05, 12:44 AM
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I see where you are coming from, but I already feel like I should watch some of the DVDs I bought that I haven't watched, I can only imagine if I had over 1000! Like I said when I ended my post, I'm sure I'd feel differently f I could afford it.
Old 07-04-05, 02:56 AM
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If you're struggling to pay your bills, then buying hundreds of DVD's is probably not the best idea in the world. If you're severely cramped for space in your home, or have no permanent home at all, then a 1000+ DVD collection is kind of a hindrance as well. However, if you're doing well financially - you're not struggling to keep the lights on or worrying how you'll make your next tuition payment - and on top of that you have adequate room for storing a huge DVD collection, then there's really no problem. Personally, I wouldn't want to have to wait a few days for Netflix to send me a movie I suddenly find myself in the mood to watch tonight. Nor do I necessarily want to get in my car and drive down to the video store (especially if it's 3:00 AM). So it's just convenient having all of my favorite films right at arms length. What will be interesting is if they ever invent an On-Demand type of service that's connected to a database of every movie, TV show, sports event, TV special, etc. ever made. That might present a serious challenge to the idea of physical ownership.
Old 07-04-05, 09:22 AM
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I'm personally not experiencing any buying slowdown; in fact, it's increased this year, mainly due to more TV show seasons and double dips. So although it may be looked at as quantity over quality, it also seems like a full second half of the year for me.
Old 07-04-05, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by joliom
What will be interesting is if they ever invent an On-Demand type of service that's connected to a database of every movie, TV show, sports event, TV special, etc. ever made. That might present a serious challenge to the idea of physical ownership.
I still prefer a physical "pile" of films. I mean, I could at least still fondle and kiss my library.

Old 07-04-05, 05:39 PM
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Putting together a library of favorite films and concerts is expensive and takes both looking for each individual title and time to do so.....I'm pretty sure the industry wanted us to do so when they brought out the DVD format. Several years later many of us have done so, and our buying may no longer be what it was at the onset. Empathizing with the companies because sales aren't what they projected isn't a likely result, not when they produce double and triple dip and more on titles that could have had a proper SE the first go round these days. Talking about movie going attendance and DVD sales being 'down' would IMO seem to only alienate the consumer further, because both they and we are aware of the reasons why that is...what we're doing is spending less at the theater and buying fewer DVDs on release day because of concern that there's a new super mega edition in the can waiting for a release 6 months down the road.....what they're doing about it is, not much.

If they're upset at how certain titles are selling now, I'm curious to see how upset they're going to be when the HD formats have people hesitant to jump on either bandwagon for several months due to high initial prices and consumer confusion.
Old 07-04-05, 06:41 PM
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If you want more people to buy your stock, you forecast extremely high profits.
Old 07-06-05, 01:28 PM
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Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
If you want more people to buy your stock, you forecast extremely high profits.
Exactly. This has nothing to do with DVDs. This is a stock market story, the stock market is volatile, partly based on timing rather than dollars, and half fictional. They take their fictional forecasted numbers and try to come up with reasons for the difference from actual once the quarter's finished, and then stockholders react to this. In this case they are blaming DVD sales forecasts. Some investors will take that to mean Pixar is not doing well in the movie industry and sell. But it really means they had the worst kind of forecast, too high. If they had been more conservative with the forecast, the stock price would have stayed high through the quarter announcements.

For DVD issues:
I'd like to see actual financials, with unit volumes, to see how the DVD sales are actually going. And then some comparisons to other DVDs from the same time period.
Old 07-06-05, 08:30 PM
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I don't see how the industry's proclaiming falling sales does anything positive for their cause....if anything it alienates the public even more because we have kids to raise and bills to pay...are we supposed to be concerned for them when they feel justified in bringing out the original Star Trek seasons at ridiculous prices, or release 3 disc 'SE's 3 months after a movies' initial release? Uh-uh.
It's not as if the little guy is going to sympathize with them as a result and run out to buy more discs.

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