Giles

um, how is it that The Missing Picture is in the Best Foreign Film nominations and NOT in the Documentary noms? Because what I saw didn't look like a fictionalized film.

Crocker Jarmen

Same reason Waltz With Bashir was nominated for Best Foreign Film and NOT in the Animation catagory. The catagory is Best Film, I doubt there are any rules barring a documentary.

Unless the rules have changed, Best Foreign Film is nominated by the country it comes from and it doesn't have to have been released in the US. For all the other catagories, the film needs a US release to be eligible.

I think at least once there has been a movie that was nominated for Best Foreign Language one year and the next year, after it had a US release, it was nominated for best script or something.

Mr. Cinema

It's been awhile since we've had a BP race this up in the air so close to the event. I'm still leaning towards a split of 12 Years/Cuaron. It's been a long time since we've had back to back BP/Director splits.

For 12 Years to take home Picture, it really needs to win Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress, which are the only other 2 categories it realistically can win. It's path to a BP victory is very narrow. However, if Gravity were to win Picture, it's only other major win, outside of possibly Editing, is Director. Although Captain Phillips is a major threat for Editing after the ACE win. It isn't up for Screenplay and Bullock has no shot at winning.

Gravity would be similar to Titanic, which didn't have a Screenplay nomination or an Acting win. That may be the last time that's happened for a BP winner.

RichC2

It doesn't strike me as up in the air, it almost seems like a lock that 12 Years a Slave will win Best Pic and Cuaron will win Director. It honestly just needs Best Editing, which Captain Phillips may take. Gravity being a genre pic that Cuaron directed the hell out of and 12 Years A Slave being the more emotionally resonate and powerful title. It will likely win Adapted Screenplay as well as the other nominees (Captain Phillips, Philomena, Wolf of Wall Street, and Before Midnight) relied more on performances than the strengths of their screenplays.

Looking at the past doesn't really help, as both the odds of having a movie knock it out of the park is higher (with nearly 700 movies released in 2013 theatrically) and there are more voting members than ever (6000-ish now).

Mr. Cinema

I think Gravity is very much alive for Picture with DGA and PGA wins. I think this is one of the tougher BP choices we've had in recent years.

RichC2

I generally associate a DGA win with winning Best Director, not so much Best Picture. And PGA was a tie with 12 Years a Slave. Slave has a majority share of other award wins.

Defiant1

EW's analysis says that 12YAS is far more polarizing than Gravity, which would help out the latter when it comes to Oscar voting. Best Picture voting is rather complex and favours movies with broad appeal rather than those that cause varying opinions.

superdeluxe

McConaughey is also in everyone's mind because of True Detective

TomOpus

Bump for this weekend and next.

RichC2

Cambodia submitted it as their Best Foreign Language candidate. It may of simply not qualified for Best Documentary? I dunno, there are a lot of rules involved.

Ash Ketchum

Films with one-word titles have never won two years in a row, so since ARGO won last year, GRAVITY will not win this year.

Groucho

Somewhat relevant (spoilered for size):

dolphinboy

I wish that I felt the same way with any film, but I just can't see this Academy not giving the award to 12 Years A Slave.

Seems like even the hope from some people for Leonardo winning is misplaced, as Matthew will surely win.

Is there really any of the big 6 up for grabs besides supporting actress? Doesn't seem like it.

CRM114

If the Oscar doesn't go to 12 Years a Slave AND Chiwetel Ejiofor, then I don't know what the Academy was watching.

RichC2

I don't think Ejiofor deserves it, he was good but he's been better in the past and several of the other nominees were better. I'm mixed on the movie deserving Best Picture (it wasn't my favorite of the year) but I do think it'll win.

But regardless, it is one of the two acting categories with a little wiggle room (Best Supporting Actor is Leto, Best Actress is Blanchett. Supporting Actress and Best Actor have strong favorites but not pure locks).

CRM114

Who was better and what movie was better? I'm looking at the list and don't see it.

RichC2

It's just opinion like all of this. But I rate the movie near the middle of the pack, and Ejiofor above Bale and DiCaprio but below Dern and McConaughey.

In terms of how things are tracking, it's a two movie Best Pic race between 12 Years and Gravity, 12 Years will win. For Best Actor it's Ejiofor or McConaughey.

PenguinJoe

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Ash Ketchum

That was rank child abuse. The authorities will hear about this!

beavis69

McConaughey and Dallas Buyers Club. Honestly of the 5 I've seen so far 12 Years is still the weakest.

DVDMagic

Figured I'd post this here instead of a new thread...

I know in years past we've done an Oscars Prediction thread and have used the official Oscars website to post our predictions....will be doing that again this year"?

Honestly can't remember who started that thread and how close to the Oscars we did it?

Decker

I really think, when it's time to vote, a lot of Academy members will have trouble voting for a disturbing, graphically violent film as Best Picture. How many times has it happened? Yes, Schindler's List, but that was B&W, Spielberg and an immensely popular movie. The Godfather was violent, but not in the same disturbing way. Braveheart and Gladiator were war flicks - neither terribly graphic. That's it, I think. When given a choice between honoring something that's difficult to watch and Gravity, I think that some voters might be more inclined to vote for the picture they wouldn't mind watching again.

Edit : Just remembered Silence of the Lambs, which was graphically violent and disturbing, so there's that one. Very different genre and most of the violence is implied there,

RichC2

The Departed and No Country for Old Men had their moments as well. Especially NCfOM. If the movie is solid and the violence isn't outright gratuitous, then the academy generally doesn't mind.

bootsy

If you are talking about 12 Years A Slave it is NOT a disturbing and graphically violent film.

CRM114

I must admit, I have not seen Dallas Buyers Club yet. I will this weekend though. That being said, Jared Leto better be pretty great to beat Michael Fassbender.