Deftones

Damn. So what were the expectations for Twilight? $35 million on the way to a likely $80+ million weekend seems awfully high.

Friday estimates:

1 TWILIGHT $35,700,000

2 QUANTUM OF SOLACE $8,750,000

3 BOLT $7,100,000

4 MADAGASCAR: ESCAPE 2 AFRICA $3,725,000

5 ROLE MODELS $2,432,000

6 CHANGELING $29,744,000

7 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR $555,000

8 ZACK AND MIRI MAKE A PORNO $510,000

9 THE BOY IN THE STRIPED PAJAMAS $450,000

10 THE SECRET LIFE OF BEES $355,000

RichC2

It won't get an $80+m weekend. You have to remember $7m of that was from Midnight showings and it is expected to drop a bit on Saturday and more on Sunday (front loading).

I need to go see Quantum of Solace and Role Models. Somewhat surprsied to see The Boy in the Striped Pajamas breaking into the top 10.

chris_sc77

the $35 million for Twilight does include the $7+ million form thursday/friday midnight screenings though so the final weekend tally for Twilight will probably be much closer to $70 million than $80 million I'd say.

QOS appears to not have the legs of Casino ROyale AT ALL. (Probably cause it sucks!) and will not get to $200 million like many speculated it would. Still its made a hell of a lot of money already so I doubt the producers are shedding any tears.

Bolt sure underperformed for Disney and probably wont get to $90 million.

Matthew Chmiel

I'm going to say for Twilight:

Saturday: $22 - 24 million
Sunday: $12 - 14 million

I'm going to estimate around a $70 - 72 million opening weekend.

Next weekend, Friday thru Sunday only, I'm expecting it to take a 65-70% drop, and only pull in around $20 - 25 million.

While Bolt isn't doing as hot as others were expecting, it's going to start making it's money once the Thanksgiving holiday rolls in. There's no family films this Thanksgiving weekend EXCEPT Bolt. I except to be little-to-no drop at all (maybe even an increase) when it comes to next weekend.

Brack

When you open as big as QoS did, you don't need great legs. It looks to make about the same as CR did in its second weekend.

Patman

Not surprised to see that the lack of good word of mouth on QoS has had an effect on its second weekend box office performance.

The Bus

Twilight may have a drop on Saturday and Sunday but I expect good word of mouth to keep it strong and steady next weekend. Out of the group I went with, almost all of them planned to see it soon.

Deftones

i know the $7 mil from the midnight showings is factored in, but you don't think it'll do around $25 - 30 million today and about $17 - $20 million tomorrow?

Even using the lowest estimates on both of those days, that still would put it at $77 million for the weekened.

Mercury&Solace

I am with Matthew Chmiel, this is going to drop huge next weekend.
Next week/weekend is freaking log jammed, Four Christmas's, Transporter 3, Australia, even though those are nothing like Twilight, theater goers are going to be torn in terms of what to see, they have a choice now.

RichC2

No, I do not expect it to make $25 - $30m on Saturday. I'm probably wrong, but it seems unlikely.

chris_sc77

Wonder how Australia will do. I cannot wait to see it and think it looks great and I am so exited and its 2 hours and 45 minutes but 4 Xmas's also opens and that is less than half as long as Australia so I wonder how that'll have an effect on it. I hope Austrailia does good and I think it will bring out an older audience but dont know if it'll make over $100 million. It needs to do good since it cost I guess over $200 million.

Matthew Chmiel

Good word of mouth from who? A majority of my (loser) friends (okay, they were all women) who were big Twilight fans walked out disappointed.

There's no way Twilight is going to do more than $25 million today. If you minus the $7 million from the midnight screenings, it'll put it at $28 million for regular Friday showings. Since the film was particularly front loaded, there will be a drop today. Especially since the children and families should be flocking (more) to Bolt.

Four Christmases will take the female crowd next weekend (thank God I got dumped as I was originally supposed to go see this).

The Transporter 3 will take the male crowd next weekend if they're not dragged out by their significant others to Four Christmases.

Bolt will take the families.

Australia will probably tank as it's a FOX release and Twilight will sink like the Titanic.

RoboDad

While it is true that the $35 million does include the revenue from the midnight showings, it should also be noted that many of the target audience for the movie were in school yesterday. I'm sure that some skipped school to go see the movie during matinee showings, but many did not, and we don't know how many were unable to see the movie last night due to sold out showings. We also don't know how many pre-bought tickets to see the movie a second (or third) time over the course of the weekend.

At this point, I wouldn't discount anything as a possibility.

fitprod

Bolt will probably get a boost next weekend with families, I wouldn't be surprised to see it at number one for the Thanksgiving weekend.

Four Christmas' will do well since it a holiday comedy.

Transporter 3? Tank... The two films combined have grossed just over $75 million. And Transporter 2 only opened to $16 Million on Labor Day weekend (it was a record at the time, but it had no competition.) Besides who want to see a psudo-Crank sequel when there a legit one coming next year. (Trailered on this I assume...)

The big wild card is Austrailia. Baz Lurhmann has a stong following from his musicals, and with Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman you would think it would be a solid film. But early word is not good, and for some reason it's reminding me of a pervious Kidman film, Far and Away.

fitprod

Deftones

Generally a movie does better on Saturday than it does on Friday. Sure, it's extremely front loaded, but I'd be willing to bet it does at least $25 million today.

Mr. Cinema

Is Transporter 3 supposed to, all of a sudden, do huge business next weekend? The entire series' worldwide gross is $128 million.

I think the majority of the male crowd is going to see Vince Vaughn.

onebyone

I loved Twilight and with its budget, it can drop like a stone and still be a huge success. I am glad it did so well as now I really want to see sequels.

I do think it will drop on Saturday, as the demand to see it right away was strong. That said, it was sold out nearly all day at my local theater so I don't expect it to be pulling in chump change either.

RichC2

It depends really, most of the time movies with a lot of hype will have a much larger Friday than Saturday, thanks in part to midnight showings and pent up demand. Twilight would have to make $28m on Saturday to match Friday and I just don't see it happening. It could happen, I just don't think it will.

Mercury&Solace

Good points.

The wild card is Australia. How much af an appeal will it have with such a crowded weekend?

I don't think it does any more than $25 for the 5 days.

Seantn

But the total budgets for the first 2 was only about 50-55 million, so $128 million return is not shabby, especially when you consider that the movies probably make their real money in DVD sales/rentals. Jason Statham's films generally do very well on DVD

PopcornTreeCt

Wow, didn't expect to see Twilight make so much money. And to see Bolt do so poorly.

Brack

Twilight has become a phenomenon. It's not as big as say Harry Potter, but it's the latest thing young readers are really into.

Gizmo

Damn....might go to see Twilight tonight (after just finishing Quantum). The lines were around the building...for a showing still an hour+ away. Hope its good...

dadaluholla

Hopefully a male with any self respect would not choose to see Four Christmases without being dragged to it by a female.

PopcornTreeCt