Movie Talk A Discussion area for everything movie related including films In The Theaters

Weekend box office totals (11/21 - 11/23)

Old 11-22-08, 11:38 AM
  #1  
DVD Talk God
Thread Starter
 
Deftones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Arizona
Posts: 74,305
Weekend box office totals (11/21 - 11/23)

Damn. So what were the expectations for Twilight? $35 million on the way to a likely $80+ million weekend seems awfully high.

Friday estimates:

1 TWILIGHT $35,700,000

2 QUANTUM OF SOLACE $8,750,000

3 BOLT $7,100,000

4 MADAGASCAR: ESCAPE 2 AFRICA $3,725,000

5 ROLE MODELS $2,432,000

6 CHANGELING $29,744,000

7 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR $555,000

8 ZACK AND MIRI MAKE A PORNO $510,000

9 THE BOY IN THE STRIPED PAJAMAS $450,000

10 THE SECRET LIFE OF BEES $355,000
Deftones is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 11:45 AM
  #2  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 38,409
It won't get an $80+m weekend. You have to remember $7m of that was from Midnight showings and it is expected to drop a bit on Saturday and more on Sunday (front loading).

I need to go see Quantum of Solace and Role Models. Somewhat surprsied to see The Boy in the Striped Pajamas breaking into the top 10.
RichC2 is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 11:47 AM
  #3  
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bellefontaine, Ohio
Posts: 5,628
the $35 million for Twilight does include the $7+ million form thursday/friday midnight screenings though so the final weekend tally for Twilight will probably be much closer to $70 million than $80 million I'd say.

QOS appears to not have the legs of Casino ROyale AT ALL. (Probably cause it sucks!) and will not get to $200 million like many speculated it would. Still its made a hell of a lot of money already so I doubt the producers are shedding any tears.

Bolt sure underperformed for Disney and probably wont get to $90 million.
chris_sc77 is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 11:50 AM
  #4  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Matthew Chmiel's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 13,263
I'm going to say for Twilight:

Saturday: $22 - 24 million
Sunday: $12 - 14 million

I'm going to estimate around a $70 - 72 million opening weekend.

Next weekend, Friday thru Sunday only, I'm expecting it to take a 65-70% drop, and only pull in around $20 - 25 million.

While Bolt isn't doing as hot as others were expecting, it's going to start making it's money once the Thanksgiving holiday rolls in. There's no family films this Thanksgiving weekend EXCEPT Bolt. I except to be little-to-no drop at all (maybe even an increase) when it comes to next weekend.
Matthew Chmiel is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 11:53 AM
  #5  
Member
 
Brack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: near Cincinnati
Posts: 9,507
When you open as big as QoS did, you don't need great legs. It looks to make about the same as CR did in its second weekend.
Brack is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 12:02 PM
  #6  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Duluth, GA, USA
Posts: 37,782
Not surprised to see that the lack of good word of mouth on QoS has had an effect on its second weekend box office performance.
Patman is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 12:13 PM
  #7  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
The Bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 54,829
Twilight may have a drop on Saturday and Sunday but I expect good word of mouth to keep it strong and steady next weekend. Out of the group I went with, almost all of them planned to see it soon.
The Bus is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 01:21 PM
  #8  
DVD Talk God
Thread Starter
 
Deftones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Arizona
Posts: 74,305
Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
It won't get an $80+m weekend. You have to remember $7m of that was from Midnight showings and it is expected to drop a bit on Saturday and more on Sunday (front loading).

I need to go see Quantum of Solace and Role Models. Somewhat surprsied to see The Boy in the Striped Pajamas breaking into the top 10.
i know the $7 mil from the midnight showings is factored in, but you don't think it'll do around $25 - 30 million today and about $17 - $20 million tomorrow?

Even using the lowest estimates on both of those days, that still would put it at $77 million for the weekened.
Deftones is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 02:14 PM
  #9  
DVD Talk Special Edition
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Rainy ass Seattle yes the weather sucks here, so do our sports teams.
Posts: 1,082
I am with Matthew Chmiel, this is going to drop huge next weekend.
Next week/weekend is freaking log jammed, Four Christmas's, Transporter 3, Australia, even though those are nothing like Twilight, theater goers are going to be torn in terms of what to see, they have a choice now.
Mercury&Solace is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 02:18 PM
  #10  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 38,409
Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
i know the $7 mil from the midnight showings is factored in, but you don't think it'll do around $25 - 30 million today and about $17 - $20 million tomorrow?

Even using the lowest estimates on both of those days, that still would put it at $77 million for the weekened.
No, I do not expect it to make $25 - $30m on Saturday. I'm probably wrong, but it seems unlikely.
RichC2 is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 02:33 PM
  #11  
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bellefontaine, Ohio
Posts: 5,628
Wonder how Australia will do. I cannot wait to see it and think it looks great and I am so exited and its 2 hours and 45 minutes but 4 Xmas's also opens and that is less than half as long as Australia so I wonder how that'll have an effect on it. I hope Austrailia does good and I think it will bring out an older audience but dont know if it'll make over $100 million. It needs to do good since it cost I guess over $200 million.
chris_sc77 is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 02:34 PM
  #12  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Matthew Chmiel's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 13,263
Originally Posted by The Bus View Post
Twilight may have a drop on Saturday and Sunday but I expect good word of mouth to keep it strong and steady next weekend. Out of the group I went with, almost all of them planned to see it soon.
Good word of mouth from who? A majority of my (loser) friends (okay, they were all women) who were big Twilight fans walked out disappointed.

There's no way Twilight is going to do more than $25 million today. If you minus the $7 million from the midnight screenings, it'll put it at $28 million for regular Friday showings. Since the film was particularly front loaded, there will be a drop today. Especially since the children and families should be flocking (more) to Bolt.

Four Christmases will take the female crowd next weekend (thank God I got dumped as I was originally supposed to go see this).

The Transporter 3 will take the male crowd next weekend if they're not dragged out by their significant others to Four Christmases.

Bolt will take the families.

Australia will probably tank as it's a FOX release and Twilight will sink like the Titanic.

Last edited by Matthew Chmiel; 11-22-08 at 02:41 PM.
Matthew Chmiel is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 03:03 PM
  #13  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
RoboDad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: A far green country
Posts: 5,953
Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
No, I do not expect it to make $25 - $30m on Saturday. I'm probably wrong, but it seems unlikely.
While it is true that the $35 million does include the revenue from the midnight showings, it should also be noted that many of the target audience for the movie were in school yesterday. I'm sure that some skipped school to go see the movie during matinee showings, but many did not, and we don't know how many were unable to see the movie last night due to sold out showings. We also don't know how many pre-bought tickets to see the movie a second (or third) time over the course of the weekend.

At this point, I wouldn't discount anything as a possibility.
RoboDad is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 03:03 PM
  #14  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 975
Originally Posted by Mercury&Solace View Post
I am with Matthew Chmiel, this is going to drop huge next weekend.
Next week/weekend is freaking log jammed, Four Christmas's, Transporter 3, Australia, even though those are nothing like Twilight, theater goers are going to be torn in terms of what to see, they have a choice now.
Bolt will probably get a boost next weekend with families, I wouldn't be surprised to see it at number one for the Thanksgiving weekend.

Four Christmas' will do well since it a holiday comedy.

Transporter 3? Tank... The two films combined have grossed just over $75 million. And Transporter 2 only opened to $16 Million on Labor Day weekend (it was a record at the time, but it had no competition.) Besides who want to see a psudo-Crank sequel when there a legit one coming next year. (Trailered on this I assume...)

The big wild card is Austrailia. Baz Lurhmann has a stong following from his musicals, and with Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman you would think it would be a solid film. But early word is not good, and for some reason it's reminding me of a pervious Kidman film, Far and Away.

fitprod
fitprod is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 03:24 PM
  #15  
DVD Talk God
Thread Starter
 
Deftones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Arizona
Posts: 74,305
Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
No, I do not expect it to make $25 - $30m on Saturday. I'm probably wrong, but it seems unlikely.
Generally a movie does better on Saturday than it does on Friday. Sure, it's extremely front loaded, but I'd be willing to bet it does at least $25 million today.
Deftones is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 03:42 PM
  #16  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Mr. Cinema's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 18,044
Is Transporter 3 supposed to, all of a sudden, do huge business next weekend? The entire series' worldwide gross is $128 million.

I think the majority of the male crowd is going to see Vince Vaughn.
Mr. Cinema is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 03:49 PM
  #17  
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
 
onebyone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 4,049
I loved Twilight and with its budget, it can drop like a stone and still be a huge success. I am glad it did so well as now I really want to see sequels.

I do think it will drop on Saturday, as the demand to see it right away was strong. That said, it was sold out nearly all day at my local theater so I don't expect it to be pulling in chump change either.

Last edited by onebyone; 11-22-08 at 03:52 PM.
onebyone is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 04:04 PM
  #18  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 38,409
Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
Generally a movie does better on Saturday than it does on Friday. Sure, it's extremely front loaded, but I'd be willing to bet it does at least $25 million today.
It depends really, most of the time movies with a lot of hype will have a much larger Friday than Saturday, thanks in part to midnight showings and pent up demand. Twilight would have to make $28m on Saturday to match Friday and I just don't see it happening. It could happen, I just don't think it will.
RichC2 is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 04:10 PM
  #19  
DVD Talk Special Edition
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Rainy ass Seattle yes the weather sucks here, so do our sports teams.
Posts: 1,082
Originally Posted by fitprod View Post
Bolt will probably get a boost next weekend with families, I wouldn't be surprised to see it at number one for the Thanksgiving weekend.

Four Christmas' will do well since it a holiday comedy.

Transporter 3? Tank... The two films combined have grossed just over $75 million. And Transporter 2 only opened to $16 Million on Labor Day weekend (it was a record at the time, but it had no competition.) Besides who want to see a psudo-Crank sequel when there a legit one coming next year. (Trailered on this I assume...)

The big wild card is Austrailia. Baz Lurhmann has a stong following from his musicals, and with Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman you would think it would be a solid film. But early word is not good, and for some reason it's reminding me of a pervious Kidman film, Far and Away.

fitprod
Good points.

The wild card is Australia. How much af an appeal will it have with such a crowded weekend?

I don't think it does any more than $25 for the 5 days.
Mercury&Solace is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 04:39 PM
  #20  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 5,610
Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema View Post
Is Transporter 3 supposed to, all of a sudden, do huge business next weekend? The entire series' worldwide gross is $128 million.

I think the majority of the male crowd is going to see Vince Vaughn.
But the total budgets for the first 2 was only about 50-55 million, so $128 million return is not shabby, especially when you consider that the movies probably make their real money in DVD sales/rentals. Jason Statham's films generally do very well on DVD
Seantn is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 05:12 PM
  #21  
DVD Talk Hero
 
PopcornTreeCt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 25,916
Wow, didn't expect to see Twilight make so much money. And to see Bolt do so poorly.
PopcornTreeCt is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 05:14 PM
  #22  
Member
 
Brack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: near Cincinnati
Posts: 9,507
Twilight has become a phenomenon. It's not as big as say Harry Potter, but it's the latest thing young readers are really into.
Brack is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 06:09 PM
  #23  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Gizmo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Formerly known as "GizmoDVD"/Southern CA
Posts: 30,361
Damn....might go to see Twilight tonight (after just finishing Quantum). The lines were around the building...for a showing still an hour+ away. Hope its good...
Gizmo is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 06:17 PM
  #24  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
dadaluholla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Wilmington, OH
Posts: 5,491
Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema View Post
I think the majority of the male crowd is going to see Vince Vaughn.
Hopefully a male with any self respect would not choose to see Four Christmases without being dragged to it by a female.
dadaluholla is offline  
Old 11-22-08, 06:22 PM
  #25  
DVD Talk Hero
 
PopcornTreeCt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 25,916
Originally Posted by dadaluholla View Post
Hopefully a male with any self respect would not choose to see Four Christmases without being dragged to it by a female.
PopcornTreeCt is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.