nasesco417

In your opinion, how many years will the current console gen (Wii U, PS4, X1) last?

Most generations prior to the most recent generally had about a 5 year life cycle, while the most recent was significantly longer.

So what about the current gen? I would venture to guess that it might last 10 years.

What say you?

dsa_shea

The cycle might be over in 8-10 but we are likely to see another console around the seven year mark in 2020. That is if consoles keep chugging along and people are still interested in them. I hope so!

fumanstan

Let's see... a quick check on years I think...

For Sony:
Playstation - 1994
Playstation 2 - 2000
Playstation 3 - 2006
Playstation 4 - 2013

For Nintendo
NES - 1983
SNES - 1991
N64 - 1996
Gamecube - 2001
Wii - 2006
Wii U - 2012

For Microsoft:
XBox - 2001
XBox 360 - 2005
XBox One - 2013

6-7 years seems like a safe bet, 2020 like dsa_shea mentioned sounds possible. Unless the industry crashes like some people are predicting

PhantomStranger

It will greatly depend on the global economy in the First World. It will be on the shorter side of 5 to 7 years if one of the consoles does badly for whatever reason.

MoviePage

75 years.

KingSmoth

I'm conflicted - I think gaming is way too big for there to be a crash again, but for some reason, I feel like this will be the last big console generation. The release of the PS4 and hype of the XB1 just feels so anti-climatic so far. This is the first time ever that I just don't hear anyone talking about them, absolutely no excitement or anticipation that I've noticed beyond forums. Hype and system launches in the mainstream were ridiculous from the N64 through the now-previous gen, which got to a point that I felt were "good enough". Maybe I'm too old, maybe I don't get out enough, maybe Sony just did a much better job meeting demand this time around. It's still incredibly early, of course, but it just doesn't "feel" like a traditional console launch at all.

flashburn

It's really hard to say right now. This could be the last true console "generation". The next consoles might be mostly cloud based. This could be the last generation of consoles where the devices in our house are actually processing the workloads. However, if that infrastructure isn't ready by then, I think we could see new consoles in the next 5 years or so. Since these consoles are more PC like, I could see them supporting both this generation systems and next generation ones at the same time for a while.

flashburn

I'm not sure if there was less hype or not, but Sony sold a million in a day, so the demand is definitely there. I haven't looked up other console launch numbers, but they did a much better job of supplying a good number of systems on launch day to try to come close to meeting the demand, which makes sense given MS launching the week after them.

KingSmoth

The demand is definitely there, I just don't know what the segment is anymore. I feel like being 32 and a lifetime gamer (as well as all of my friends and many co-workers) should put me among the target segment, but I certainly don't know anyone who has uttered anything about the systems other than "too expensive/too soon/not enough features".

Groucho

Last time around the amount of consoles available from online retailers was significantly smaller, and as I recall they were shipping on release day...not arriving then. Which meant for most people the only way to get a console was to stand in line and pick it up in person. Big lines and crowds = more hype and demand.

This is a much "quieter" launch because most people are staying home and letting the console come to them.

Brent L

I'm 33 now. I hope it happens at least by early 2020.

I really don't want to be able to now say that I'll be 40 years old before the next generation begins.

mhg83

I thought they were planning on making the PS4 and XB1 upgradeable? So by the the 5 year point we can have PS4.5 and XB1.5. But make it an option where we can still run the same game on both graphics cards.

fumanstan

Don't think that was ever the case.

KingSmoth

Good point.

Drexl

I think diminishing graphical returns have a lot to do with that. It's not that they aren't better, but they're not blowing us away like they did in previous generations.

Also more so than in the past, these consoles are a lot more evolutionary than revolutionary. They're not releasing games that couldn't be done on the previous consoles yet, and there's no big new hook like motion control or DVD/BD playback. The one console that arguably did bring something new is the Wii U, and that has its own share of problems.

taffer

Diminishing graphical returns is a load of bull.

Ryse already blows everything on the PS3/360 completely out of the water graphically. Ryse is also a launch game, which means the developers are inexperienced with the hardware. Games in a couple years after developers get more experience will make Ryse look ugly.

I remember way back in the PS1/N64 days some people were saying they couldn't imagine graphics getting much better than Metal Gear Solid or Ocarina of Time. People were claiming diminishing returns even back then. And look where we are now. MGS and OoT look like feces compared to today's games.

You say you aren't blown away this gen like you were in previous gens? Most of that has to do with us as people just being older. Older people aren't as easily impressed as younger people.

nickdawgy

2020 sounds right to me, too, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was earlier. I think talk of the new systems will happen in 3-5 years.

DthRdrX

I think 2020 is a good guess, with 4K resolution and more photo-realistic graphics. I've seen some shots from ARMA 3 that are fairly realistic as is right now.

taffer

4K? This gen isn't even running at full 1080p yet. PS5/XboxWhateverthefuck will finally get 1080p. Then the next-next-gen might finally get to 4k. There definitely won't be 4k games outside of PC gaming by 2020 though.

DthRdrX

But it can run at 1080p, given a certain FPS. 4K tvs are now starting to roll out so I'd say 4K is a definite goal for Sony and MS in 6-7 years.

Talking about PCs, unless AMD or Nvidia go belly up I don't see any slowdown in GPU progress. Nvidia's roadmap looks pretty interesting and a fairly big jump. Plenty of gamers are running three 1080p monitors, or more, with current technology. I'd say look at what PCs can do in 2017-2018 and we will have a good idea of what the next consoles will be able to do if released around 2020.

Music

GTA IV 4K Mods

http://venturebeat.com/2013/09/20/th...shame-gallery/

taffer

1440p is already starting the become the norm in PC gaming with 27" monitors.

Three monitors? That's old. Check out this six monitor setup running at 5760 x 2160. Personally I don't think I could stand playing on a multi-monitor setup because the bezels partially obstructing the view would drive me absolutely crazy.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/0toqqPS3P-s" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

dsa_shea

The 6 monitor setup takes me completely out of the game.

KingSmoth

I couldn't do the six-screen setup because the central point of view is a bezel. However, I have been running three 24" Samsungs in nvSurround 5990x1200 since 2010, and it's pretty awesome. I don't even notice the bezels in-game.

taffer

5990x1200? That seems like an odd resolution.

5990/3 = 1996.67

1920x1200 is a standard 16:10 resolution, but I have never heard of 1996x1200.