mhg83

I honestly think it would be wise for Sony to skip the next generation. They have a ten year cycle for the consoles. They can fully support ps3 and have the price drop significantly lower. People that are still on the ps2 can move over to ps3 and have a ton of games at low price while new games still get released. 2016 they can release ps4 which would be out way before the XBOX 4.

And as for Xbox 3, I think the controller is gonna be form fitting. I think there's even a patent on it.

Jeremy517

Nah. The only ones that will be download-only will be the same type that are now via XBLA, WiiWare, and PSN. You'll see more that are available both ways (like the 360's Games On Demand, etc), but the B&M-type releases will still be
in-store; they'd be giving up too much money otherwise.

Drexl

I don't think they'll be download only. Like other forms of media, there needs to be a transition period, and we're seeing that now with music, PC games, and even movies. What I expect is for every new game to be made available for download, in addition to the retail copy. From there, it's a matter of sales to determine if and when retail discs are phased out.

My prediction is that we'll see the first next-gen console in 2012. I have no idea what company, or how many companies, will launch. I could think of reasons why it could be any of them. Nintendo may want to put out something more powerful to get more developer support. MS may want to be first again. Sony may want a fresh new start, since it looks like they may not get out of third place. It's too soon to tell.

Oh, and Pilotwings: Ace will be a launch title for Nintendo. Bring it, Miyamoto.

kgrogers1979

My prediction is that the Dual Shock 4 will still have the analog sticks on the interior and the digital pad on the exterior.

Save Ferris

Hmm, might Apple launch a console?

Save Ferris

If you REALLY want to know: Marketing.

The marketing geniuses realized they would handicap selling an "Xbox 2" next to a "Playstation 3" it would always seem inferior or less advanced (even though it is).

So the marketplace has Ps3 vs 360 --they sound more evenly matched, yet even '360' sounds more advanced than 3

Gizmo

You nailed it.

Save Ferris

But dont ask me why Playstation 3 decided to recycle the font from the Spiderman franchise. Every Playstation 3 is a Spiderman special edition I guess.

PerryD

I think Microsoft releasing a new system next fall would keep Sony in 3rd place indefinitely, especially if they go the Wii low cost route by just increasing/doubling the existing processor's speed, increase RAM to 4GB and 500GB+ Hard Drive, full backward compatibility, motion controls (Nadal) and charge $299. There is no need for more extreme horsepower increases anymore, a moderate increase will allow full 1080p support on all games going forward.

I think Sony is stuck for 3 more years to start making money on their current system.

Nintendo is in the best position, and should be able to release a true next gen system in 2 years, the Super Wii, that can now support 1080p along with an enhanced Wii Remote control, for the same $249 price.

fumanstan

I can't imagine the next gen starting in 2011. I would predict 2012 for when new systems come out. I do think there will be some sort of refresh for the Wii and 360 though.

Superman07

If you're MS why do you need to both remarketing a new system? Couldn't you just update the 360 with a better processor, natal and added hard drive capabilities? That was you're still selling a 360. You retain compatibility with old games, and don't force issues running a game.

Also, I know this won't happen, but I think MS would be smart to not include controllers with the next console. Let the current set of controllers work with the next console. I know that won't happen due to accessory sales, but from a functional point of view I think the 360 controller is the best controller we've seen yet from the console market.

Regardless, I'd like to think the next MS product will have Blu-ray, but I have a feeling it would come in the form of an external drive. However, Sony has stated BR licensing fees are coming down, so if it would only cost ~$30 more than a DVD solution, then perhaps. However, if we're 3-4 years down the road MS may just push digital distribution. They'd be genius if they plugged into the Apple store, but given the Zune Marketplace that probably won't happen. I know it's "Apple", but from an install base (iPod) it would be a good reason to sway your customers over Sony or Nintendo.

zekeburger1979

I think they learned their lesson from the Pippin. They'll be focused on the newest iPod and iPhones and whatever other iApple product they come up with.

jeffbase34

I wouldn't look for any next gen hardware for a long time. Sony and M$ have both come out stating that they want much longer cycle like 10 years. They are banking on Natal and motion plus to extend the life of the hardware. I don't know anyone who is overly excited about this path. I don't want to wave my arms around to play a FPS. A controller works just fine.

These companies are going to invest millions into one big sinkhole. Natal will be a novelty, nothing more.

I also wonder what happened to Onlive. It got a lot of buzz at GDC as a console that streams games from a server with no installation. It was supposed to be out this year.

Groucho

By the way, the point of this thread was for everybody to post their own predictions so we could compare with actual events down the road and see who was closest. So feel free to add your own, guys!

Tracer Bullet

I'm going to be very surprised if there's ever a Playstation 4.

Superman07

Speaking of rumors - ATI to retain chip for next MS console.

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15936/1/

orangecrush

They will see unit sales take a healthy drop if they do this.

Drexl

Well, if it has a better processor, I'd say that makes it a new system. Especially since they'll be making new games to take advantage of it. Or were you thinking the graphics technology wouldn't really advance, but just run better?

Yeah, that won't happen. They strip out as much as they can, and yet they always include a controller. You can't just assume that everyone buying a new system had the previous gen's system.

I doubt they'd make the storage external though. I think if they really make a new system, it's just going to need something with more capacity than DVD. I'm not in the camp that felt that BD was necessary this generation, but next time it's a must.

As far as the Apple store is concerned, are you talking about the portable apps or what?

Michael Corvin

That's good news for backwards compatibility.

orangecrush

As for my predictions:
Wii HD announced late 2010/early 2011 comes out holiday 2011.
Xbox will iterate the 360. We won't see a truely new console until around 2012/2013.
Playstation 3 will see at least 1 more iteration. The sucessor will come out around 2012/2013.

Michael Corvin

Any announcement will likely be made at E3. That's the way it's always been done, and rightly so, that's when there is the most press. I guess they could attempt a CES announcement and further shun the hardcore gaming world.

ChrisHicks

Do you seriously think MS would release an XBox with something like a 1TB drive preinstalled? You should know it will be something like 250Gb max and then they can release the 1TB drive as a 200.00 add-on. Of course you'll also need some HD cables because those won't make it in the box either.

I'd like to see MS go the way Sony did so a user can swap out their drive with an ordinary off the shelf unit.

Michael Corvin

Up until last month the Premium/Pro/Elite came with HD cables. That's 4 years longer than either competitor.

And yeah, I think 1TB minimum. They want to sell you as much DLC as they can. That takes up space. Plus, like the original xbox, it will be cheaper to get the larger drives than smaller ones at that point.

orangecrush

Of course you are right about E3. I don't know what I was thinking. Unless...they decide to announce it on Oprah.

chess

MS: Announced summer 2012, out holiday 2013...largely iterative and fully BC with 360
Sony: Announced summer 2013, out holiday 2015...architecture much closer to PC...BC up to PS2
Nintendo: HD version announced E3 2011, out holiday 2011