PixyJunket

I honestly don't think there will be many changes as far as "position" goes. I do have a hard time believing the PS3 will be as big as the PS2 was.. while I won't be surprised either way.. I have a feeling the last few years were probably a peak for home gaming and will slow down a bit in the coming years. Microsoft will probably feel the most hurt but I don't see it being big enough to do send them "the way of Sega." Nintendo will probably stay right where they are, which of course will remain the constant target of "analysts" and uninformed "gamers" predicting doom & gloom every month, but they'll do exactly what they want to do and make a lot of money doing it.

Decker

Why do we all try to figure if a console will thrive or bomb before it's even released? I wasn't a big gamer until the PS1, but since then, every console I've seen launched well. The Dreamcast launch (famously on 9/9/99) was a very big deal (cover of Newsweek, I believe). The N64 was impossible to find despite the fact that the system launched with a grand total of TWO games. The GBA, DS, PSP ; None were in any store the week after their launch. Ditto the Xbox and GC, which inexplicably launched the same week.
Why did people line up to buy the 360? Because of the amazing system reviews? I didn't see any. Because of the must have games for the system? Perhaps, but there certainly wasn't a Halo-type world beater at launch. The bottom line is that with any system (or at least any not named N-Gage), demand will ALWAYS exceed supply at launch.

Supermallet

That's why we're not talking about launch numbers. We're talking about how the system does in the long term.

Decker

I don't see anything in that article that states the PS3 will sell well initially, but then sales will fall off becuase of these concerns. Additionally the article references the success of the 360, a system that still is in very short suppy due to slow production rates more than phenominal consumer demand. I don't think it's really possible to fairly speculate on the sytem based on the very limited info we've been given so far, but if one had to bet on a system's success or failure at this juncture, I'd suspect the PS3 will be a big hit with consumers.

Supermallet

Well, the article is poorly written and skirts on getting their facts wrong. Not to mention focusing on all the wrong things. But the rest of the conversation in here is a little more on point.

Michael Corvin

I'm interested in seeing how this plays out. Sure they could fit an entire season on one disc, but that would be at the same quality as standard dvd. What is the point of repurchasing? Just to save some shelf space? If they go back and remaster shows in HD it will take more space on the disc keeping the episode to disc ratio about the same as it is now.

I agree. It's actually all been pretty civil and unbiased so far.

Supermallet

They may offer both versions. All the shows on one disc, at regular DVD quality, for $20. The whole season on multiple discs in HD for $50.

mrpayroll

And I hope it stays that way!

Chris

JM

From the accounts I have seen, you are wrong about this one. It would come as no surprise since there were certainly many complaints about how hard it was to develop for the the PS2. This is one area where Microsoft has a clear advantage over Sony. Microsoft is a software company. Its Visual Studio development environment and tools are the standard for Windows programming and are very mature and developer friendly. Sony, on the other hand, has far less experience in software and their development tools (from what I have read) just aren't very good by comparison. Now, that fact didn't hurt them much with respect to the PS2 and may not with the PS3 either.

An interesting component of the difficulty of programming for the PS3 versus the Xbox360 may be the fact that the PS3 processor only has ONE core (PPE) but has 8 (only 7 useable) SPEs whereas the 360 has THREE cores (PPEs) and no SPEs. For a somewhat technical overview of the difference between a PPE and an SPE, see http://www-128.ibm.com/developerwork...y/pa-cbea.html . The bottom line is that PPEs are what developers are used to coding for both in single and multiple processor scenarios on a PC. It is unclear how well the PS3's SPEs, which sound good on paper, will translate to real world performance and whether only having one PPE (versus the 360's three) will ultimately cause the PS3 problems.

If you believe one report recently posted on the TXB forums, developers are finding that the SPEs don't add a lot of performance. Now this could be just a rumour, or there could be some truth to it. I tend to believe the latter, but the real question is whether it is just a matter of the developers not knowing how to take advantage of these SPEs yet. Due to their respective designs, it would seem there will definitely be a much steeper learning curve with getting max performance out of the PS3 than with the 360.

Terrell

With all due respect, this is anectdotal evidence akin to the "most of my friends are more interested in movie A than movie B" comments seen in box office discussion. You may be telling the truth, but it has little relevance on the rest of the gaming world.

I disagree here as well. I have not seen any "huge buzz" for the Revolution. One, there's literally no games being show. It's specs are underwhelming when compared to the PS3 or Xbox360, so graphically it can't compete. Even though the games matter, the power of a console matters to many gamers and developers, or so it seems. Graphics are talked about more than any aspect on the gaming boards I've been too. I personally see the Revolution dragging up the rear again, and losing market share in the console wars. Looks to me like Nintendo dropped the ball again. I just don't think Nintendo can continue to release underpowered consoles and compete. The fact that the PS3 and Xbox360 will have a head start only makes matters worse for Nintendo.

I don't know much about this either. I'm sure some gamers love to play those old games. A good game is a good game, no matter what. But when a newer, more powerful consoles come out, how many gamers continue heavily playing their older consoles? Some, but I can't see many. When I bought my Playstation 2, I had absolutely no desire whatsoever to go back to those old, pixelated, blocky games. What do Xbox360 gamers play more of, 360 games or the older backwards compatible Xbox games? Sort of like that expensive toy mom bought you for Christmas that you played for 6 weeks, then moved on to something else. We've all done that. Gamers want to play the latest and greatest games.

Grimfarrow

I agree. Once again, everyone's underestimating Nintendo. Same thing happened when the Nintendo DS came out - and look at how well it's selling. Their technology may be considering a bit "dated" compared to the other two, but there's no question no one innovates as much as they do either - and for a reasonable price that people can buy on impulse. Look at the sales ratio of Nintendo DS games versus the PSP and you'll know what I mean.

I have a feeling that Microsoft will be the third wheel in the race by the end 2008.

Josh H

You missed the point. He's not saying the Nintendo virtual console will be more popular, or even remotely able to compete, with the 360 or other next gen games.

He's comparing the X-box 360 marketplace Arcade feature where you can play old arcade games, versus Nintendo's virtual console where you can download NES, SNES and N64 (as well as probably genesis games and maybe some other old systems).

This came up as someone pondered that maybe MS beat nintendo to the
punch here by having the 360 arcade out now. And people were saying that this wouldn't matter as more people would want the old nintendo and other console games, that what you can get on the 360 marketplace.

And I agree wholeheartedly with that. But of course neither the 360 Arcade or Revolution Virtual Console will make or break the systems success as most gamers just want to play the newest, greatest looking game.

As for your other question, I prefer older games. I'm playing my DS almost exclusively, and have wasted hundreds of dollars on GC, PS2 and X-box games this gen that were hyped that I just didn't like. I've learned my listen and buy much more selectively now. I'll probably just pick up a revolution and mainly use the virtual console next gen. The direction gaming has taken the past 5-10 years has just largely gotten away from the types of games I like to play.


As for revolution hype, it's getting a lot among developers who say they can't wait to develop games for the controller (which will obviously be exclusives) and it's getting a quit a bit of talk online and in magazines for a system, that as you say, they've not even showed a screen shot of any games.

I still think Nintendo will be third, but they'll continue to make a lot of money doing things there way, just like they always have. They don't need Sony's marketshare to be successful as they don't take huge losses on consoles or in other areas of the company.

Supermallet

Well, considering I spend 40 hours a week working in a video game store, I think it's a little more relevant than "all my friends like movie A more than movie B." This is the video game buying public, pure and simple.



You clearly haven't heard just about every developer under the sun express intense interest in making games for the Revolution. Again, your view of Nintendo isn't terribly uncommon, which is why I said the Revolution will blindside people. They just aren't expecting it.



As Josh Hinkle mentioned, I'm not saying the virtual console will take out the entire 360. Just that the 360 marketplace arcade will not overshadow Nintendo's virtual console. Which would you rather play, Wik & The Fable of Souls or your choice of Metroid, Zelda, and Mario games?

Outlaw

I don't think the PS3 will kill Sony, in fact I think things will stay pretty similar for Sony despite them taking their time, the Playstation brand is still quite a powerful brand, and if Sony can get the PS3 out at $400 it will be popular. Heck, seeing the Metal Gear Solid 4 trailer got me more interested than everything I've seen so far on the 360, though I don't think I can afford a $400 console. Microsoft really shot themselves in the foot with the supply issue, they could have gotten a huge lead, which is one of the biggest reasons they cut the original X-box life short, but no one can walk into a store and buy it, even this long after christmas. As game information PS3 and Revolution info starts to trickle out more people are going to wait and see what the other options are. I think this E3 will be very interesting, hopefully we'll see some playable PS3 games (MGS4!) and I think Nintendo has already stated that the Revolution will finally be revealed, so that means we will be seeing the first games for it.

Ralph Wiggum

I'd be stunned if, at a minimum, MS didn't make big gains in NA and Nintendo in Japan.

Michael Corvin

Like Grimfarrow said, look at the DS vs. PSP. the PSP has the power, amazing graphics, and a myraid of other features, yet the less powerful, gameplay friendly DS mops PSP in sales.

Well sure. That's like saying more people go in CompUSA looking for Windows software. When you own 95% of the market that is what you are going to see. Sony has the market, Nintendo has the buzz.

Exactly. Nearly EVERY major developer is blown away with what Nintendo has and has expressed interest DESPITE having to make a console specific title vs. a port. That is a huge hurdle and it seems the game companies have no issues jumping it. (other than the Duke Nukem and Unreal camps, who haven't actually seen the system) Nintendo needs to take the buzz and turn it into sales.

That is what I was getting at. The virtual console won't compete with 360 games, that is just silly. Live Arcade games will compete with Nintendo's, with the possibility of titles like Street Fighter on both systems. With[unconfirmed] numbers like 600,000 Geometry Wars sales the virtual console will be huge this generation. It shows a strong support for gameplay friendly games which is what the Rev. is all about. Like the others mention, Nintendo has a stronger back catalog, but third parties could easily go with Live instead.

The Bus

That would mean everyone with a system has bought a copy. I believe the real number is somewhere north of 60,000, and those are the numbers Bizarre is giving.

Fandango

To be honest, Nintendo's handhelds are what's keeping them in the console business, without it I think they would have gone the way of Sega already.

Ralph Wiggum

Nintendo made money on the Cube. They just announced they have $10 billion in cash. MS "only" lost ~$4 billion on the Xbox. Nintendo isn't going anywhere for a very, very long time.

Sega, on the other hand, was in the red for years.

Mr. Cinema

Wouldn't the $120 price difference be a key factor in the sales advantage for the DS? I'm sure little Timmy's parents are more likely to spend $130 on a DS rather than $250 on a PSP. If they were the same price, do you think sales would even out?

Josh H

And the same will be true with consoles. The 360 is $400 for the premium, the PS3 will be at least that, and all indications are that the Revolution will be no more than $200 in the U.S.

But games have a lot to do with the DS success. Most feel the PSP game library is lacking, and the DS has had killer games over the past year or so, probably more highly reviewed and beloved games than even any of the consoles.

If it's cheaper, and doesn't have the games, it won't sell. Just like the Gamecube was always $100 or so cheaper than the PS2 and X-box and still came in third as it was short on variety in games in a lot of people's opinion.

Decker

This is an important point. It's not just about price point, though the fact that one is TWICE the price of the other is a concideration. The markets for the two systems is different. The DS has broad appeal, but it's primarily a game system targeted at kids. The PSP is more of a media/gaming gadget that targets much older. The handheld market, by and large is a kid's market so it's no suprise that the DS is the much bigger seller. In fact, I'd have suspected that the PSP would be much more likely to "kill Sony" than the PS3. Still, if the game library improves and the price eventually drops, the PSP, though certainly flawed, still might end up being very sucessful. As I mentioned, I'm curious to see what sort of connectivity to the PS3 we'll end up seeing.

Supermallet

The DS is not primarily for kids. It has a range of games for all ages. Granted, it has more kids games than the PSP, but that was almost a given, anyway.

Considering that a good portion of adults rave about their DS systems all the time, including many people on this board, I think it's safe to say that the large sales are not simply due to the price difference.

Superboy

I'd like to know why there are SO many people who are cynical about Nintendo.

outer-edge

I've worked in a video game store as well, and more and more, the customers there are becoming less of a market share of video games. Age ranges are changing and gamers are becoming more diverse. I don't think customers of a dedicated store show the true intent of the gaming community as a whole as much as they used to. That said, I won't even speculate if you are right or wrong.

But, along the same lines as I was talking about, I think the desire for a console with great specs matters less to the gaming community whole than to core, long-time gamers. While pretty pictures may help sell a console in store, numbers, data and figures on console power mean increasing less to the growing populace of gamers. It's no longer teenage and college geeks playing games. It's your little/older brothers and sisters, moms and dads, aunts and uncles, and grandparents in some cases. And, what sells to SOME of these people are either the games, or the features, not power. Plus, it is not specs that bring in NEW gamers either.

The more gamers I meet, the more I realize everyone is looking for something different. Maybe it won't be this generation yet, but eventually companies will need to start meeting the needs of this community and go beyond the prettiest pictures or next iteration in a series. Nintendo is starting to do this, but whether or not their approach will work is left to be seen.