it's only $50/year??? that's freakin' cheap.

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pardon my ignorance. i'm just not interested in online gaming so i never investigated it.

not quite true. Sony will always be far easier to compete with since they are far less profitable than MS. If MS stopped making consoles today it would be far more likely for a new company to decide to compete with Sony than if MS was number one and Sony got out of the market. MS would be able to crush anyone due to the ability to outspend them forever.

That is right MS could decide to lose money forever on the console business since they have money and profits coming in from the OS division. No company can do that. Sony would likely go out of business if they had to lose money forever on the console side. The PS division makes up around 65% of their whole companies profits

If MS does win the console war you will not see any more competition again since no one can compete with MS's money.

I disagree that it will be a level playing field for two reasons.

1. Sony has the "brand name" status in the industry. They have the hype, MS marketing won't take it away. Sony will have to make some mistakes (i.e. poor marketing, a vastly inferior machine next generation, loss of big exclusives, etc) to lose their huge hype advantage.

2. I don't think adding features will level the playing field at all.

First, it's likely Sony will add more or less the same features as MS, thus negating any advantage MS would have had by including extra crap.

Second, I don't think casual gamers (who make up the bulk of the market) will be all that interested in it. The people that want Tivo etc. are mainly tech heads, early adopters, etc. and will already have stand alone equipment. Plus these features will likely be inferior to stand alone equipment, just like the PS2 and X-box can hold a candle to a halfway decent standalone dvd player. So I basically think as far as sales to gamers go, the added features will be just like DVD playback this generation, and added plus, but not really a huge selling point (especially if the X-box2 and PS3 do the same things).

Third, I don't think including Tivo etc. will bring in non-gamers who are intersted in the technology. They would more likely just by the stand alone equipment.


So basically IMO Sony and MS will go into next generation with fairly similar machines that will have extra features that likely won't have a big impact on sales. And sony will have the same hype advantage and the same game library advantage that they have now unless they screw up royally somehow.

I don't really buy this. You think if a GIANT like MS had to drop out of the console war that a smaller company would have the guts to invest a huge chunk of money (likely their whole bank roll) to take on a company that shot down MS? Not likely! Yeah, someone could come out with another funky chip to put into a DVD player that has no impact but no one is going to really invest to take on a giant that took down MS. Sega had a superior system with superior games (way superior launch) and they fell like a rock! It is looking like even Nintendo will go software only if things continue the way they are.
One fault with your logic, according to the way things are going anyway, is that MS already has the money to outspend Sony yet they are not even coming close to overtaking anything.
Don't forget that if MS does move into the lead then that won't necessarily mean that Sony is gone. Sony will be in the fight for a long time whether they are in 1st or 2nd place. IMO

I see where your points come from and they make good sense but in this particular case I don't think they portray the situation accurately. I think Sony has a power over the gaming community right now that is greater than the all mighty dollar!

Keep in mind that this will likely change (going up) after the first year of LIVE. This means Novemeber. Many speculate that it will be $10 a month but I really don't know. Maybe we will be lucky and it won't go up but I doubt it. I would pay $10 a month easily to not be on a pay per game basis.

It's $50 to renew it for a second year, as per the thread on X-box live pricing here.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that Kainan is not the Amazing Kreskin.

Josh hit on something that's very significant. When the average gamer buys a console, they buy it to play games. They don't really care about photo editing, Tivo or ripping MP3's. They want to be able to sit down and play games. What ever features Microsoft might throw into the the "NextBox" will probably be overkill at this point.

There's something very important you have to remember. When you buy a console you're not buying it because you want to buy the console. You're buying a console because you want to play games on a console. As we all know the PS2's hardware isn't the major selling point. The game library is. Once again, I also think that customer loyalty comes into play as well. The Japanese believe in business that if you give a consumer a good product that they like, and that the like using they will most likely buy another in the future. With a rash of mediocre to poor exclusive games, and with none of the big A-List titles ( i.e. Metal Gear and GTA) coming to the XBox in the near future, I'm not sure that what Microsoft has done is the best way to build that customer loyalty. So of the 12-13% of the of the market share this generation that Microsoft has gained, the question remains how much of that market share will they hold on to? The way to have gained market share this generation was certainly not by releasing games like Blinx and Azurik. We also heard alot of people out of Redmond, WA say "Don't worry the games are coming. There's "unlimited" potential. There's so many great gaems on the way you'll be amazed!!" But so far many titles have been delayed, and many of the so-called "great" games have met with lukewarm respones. True the PS2 had some lackluster titles in the first 6 months of it's lifecycle, but it eventually delivered some mammoth titles that have had unprecidented popularity. Except for perhaps Halo, we haven't seen a, as I call it , MONSTER hit out of the XBox to date ( Splinter Cell now being on all three consoles can't be included as an "exclusive" anymore). Just unfulfilled promises. With these experiences leaving a bad taste in gamers mouths, how many will be willing to go back to the well a second time?

this is the crux of the debate. i think the current console market is as you described. but what's the market penetration of the console market compared to dvd players? it's not really that big, is it?

that is, when you say "average gamer", you are absolutely correct in your characterization. so, it's time to get the "average person" now.

a consumer appliance type of market is what i think MS and Sony are envisioning; where 75% or more of the population owns one or more "Nextboxes".

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to me, the biggest "feature" will be downloadable music and movies and tivo. not photo-editing or email. i think entertainment on demand will be the next big thing (which includes gaming).

DOH! I've been playing the games too much to frequent many forums.

Young-

I think you are correct here but I think you missed stating that this is what both Sony and MS were trying to do with the current systems. Both would have loved nothing more than to make money selling add ons to have this thing turn into a Tivo or flip our toast in the mornings. It didn't happen this round but everyone will continue to try (minus Nintendo who seems content with just bare gaming).

actually, i think i did say somewhere that both MS and Sony are pursuing this (and nintendo playing it safe to their dis/credit). yup, not this generation, probably not the next one either, but maybe the 3rd? this thread is so long, i understand if my comment was missed. a cookie to anyone who reads it all!

i keep thinking what i would do if i worked for MS or Sony and i wanted to expand the market. seems like the obvious way to go to me. if i were MS, there's no way i'd back off right now b/c i lost $190mil this year - the potential rewards are too great. and if i were Sony, i'd fight tooth and nail to match/exceed MS offerings as well.

but, don't be suprised if a non-console maker comes out of the woodworks. samsung, ibm, cable companies, cell phone companies, AOL, little companies in silicon valley, etc. are all potential players.

Only thing is that MS has the code already developed for all these feautures. Remember Ultimate TV? MS has so much applications ready to go into the next console, it's unbelievable. The only roadblock is storage. Today drives over 200GB are new. When the X-Box 2 comes out they will be the low end and so will be in the X-Box. That is enough storage space for a lot of applications. And they can always sell a premium version with more storage space for those who want an all in one device.

Sony puts out Tivo's (in addition to Phillips) so they already have the technology as well.

I seriously doubt that the "average person" who is currently not into games and doesn't currently own any consoles is going to all of a sudden by a PS3 or X-box 2 because they have ultimate TV, Tivo, music downloading etc.

If they want Tivo or Ulitimate TV, they'll go buy a stand alone unit, if they haven't already.

If they want to download music, they'll do it on their PC and by and I-Pod or something similar.

I just don't think these added features are going to sell consoles to the "average person" and I don't think they'll sell consoles to the "average gamer."

Of course this is just my take on it, and these lame all-in-one hunks of junk could be huge selling points, but I'd be shocked when interested people can already by stand alone equipment that is almost 100% guaranteed to be of superior quality as no combo electronic equipment (i.e. dvd player/receiver/speaker box sets) can compete with even consumer level stand alone equipment sold at best buy, circuit city etc.

So, IMO, games and hype will remain the biggest selling point, and Sony has the huge edge here.

the thing I don't get is all these people who say that gamers have been duped by M$, or that they have a bad taste in their mouths because of promises of games and so on. I am as anti-M$ as anyone you will meet, just ask wowsy about how I used to talk about Xbox. I have a PS2 and I gave it to my kids when I bought the xbox. I paid $299 for PS2 and the games I liked were GTA3, Devil May Cry, Vice City and Socom. There were a few little games here and there that were fun for a bit but that was it on PS2 for me. After playing the Xbox I couldn't even pick up the controller for the PS2. Halo is ok to me but Ghost Recon, Buffy, Splinter Cell, Blinx, and Mech Assault have gotten more playing time on xbox than any of the games I had on PS2. Talk about a sour taste in your mouth, I paid $100 more for a PS2 and got much less enjoyment. Everyone I know who has played the xbox loves it. One of my buddies can't put down the bond games. I don't think M$ needs to worry about losing people because they are unhappy. Especially with games like Doom 3, Halo 2, Castle Wolfenstein, and Fable coming out for it.

I got my first issue of the free xbox-nation magazine today and saw a ton of great looking games coming. I had no idea about a starcraft like game made with Aliens Vs. Predator. Other cool looking games like Crimson Skies, Brute Force, MOH: Rising Sun, Ghost Recon Island thnder, Rainbow Six, and even the pirates of the caribbean. Sega is even making Sonic 3 for the Xbox. The Xbox IMO is just hitting it's stride with games.

Sony licenses the OS, they don't own TIVO unless they buy the company. They also don't have the wealth of applications that MS has that can be included in a next gen console.

MS has had experience with Web TV, Ultimate TV, hosting various online games, multimedia playback software as well as other projects that haven't worked out. That is MS's strongest suit. Try an idea and if it doesn't work the first time bring it back a few years later in a successful comeback.

In 2005 MS will be able to bring out a faster console than the PS3 with all the features of an entertainment center for the same price as the X-Box today. And there will be a ton of recurring revenue per console. Internet access, TIVO like functionality, X-Box Live and other charges.

albundy, have you seen the windows xp media edition? They are trying to take over all entertainment in your house and while it seems stupid to us all right now, in a few years we will all be using it. They are going at it from multiple fronts and the xbox game console is just part of it.

But the questoin is, will all this extra crap that MS may have an advantage at get people to buy the X-box 2 instead of the PS3 if the game libraries are the same? I don't think it will for reasons I've already listed above.

As far as games, there are some who prefer the X-box (like s}{ammer) or GC lineups (like me) to the PS3, but by system and game sales, it's clear that the Sony has the games that the massive casual gamer market wants.

It's also unlikely the the X-box 2 will be as far ahead of the PS3 in tech capabilites as the X-box is currently over the PS2. Sony won't make the mistake of launching an underpowered machine next generation. They've gotten away with it this time, they won't risk it next time. The systems will likely be more or less equivalent (including Nintendo's offering).

So again, it comes down to the games, and MS is going to have problems coming up with exclusives with system selling appeal to the mass market of casual gamers as Sony has most of the big third party games secured and MS hasn't shown any ability to make a hit console game in house.

I think it's more the point that MS will release a box that will play and record dvds, record your tv shows, act as a jukebox for your music cds, act as a web tv box, etc. And it will sell for a rock bottom price. The fact that it can play Xbox2 games (or whatever) will be just another function. So you'll have people who instead of buying a dvd player, or a tivo etc, will buy an Xbox 2 instead. And once they have the xbox 2 they'll start buying the odd game here and there (along with other subscription services). By making money off all their services MS will be able to undercut the price of the equivalent electronic devices so you'll get to a point where why would you buy a standalone dvd player when you can get an xbox2 which can do 10 other things.

MS has won over a large part of the hard core gaming audience with the xbox1. They will win over the casual gamer (and non gamer) with the xbox2. And the rest of us will come back for Halo 3, splinter cell X, etc .

Of course, Sony is planning to do exactly the same thing...

Chris

I really don't understand why you think all three systems are going to be equal. I also don't see how this far in advance you or anyone can say that M$ won't be able to get exclusives better than anyone else. I do not want M$ to be number one any more than anyone else, I love having the prices as low as possible and only competition will keep this going. Here is what it looks like to me.

Nintendo will probably stick with it but they will be fighting of Sony and Nokia for the handheld market. Nintendo doesn't have the kind of money to wage a hardware war if they lose the handheld market so they will focus on this. They will put out their usually high quality games on their hardware but will once again not have the third party support. I could be wrong about this but I think they will be too concerned with the handheld market.

Sony will put out PS3 with thier own technology. It will be very expensive to build just like PS2 was when it first came out. Sony will try and put almost everything M$ will put in the xbox2. Sony has more money and will do well in the two front war (handhelds and console) and will probably hold a slight lead at first.

M$ will open the wallet and buy some good exclusives for launch time. Owners of xbox will probably buy an xbox2 within first year and will end up neck and neck with Sony. The reason they can get ahead is they market the xbox2 as a multimedia monster and they get regular people to buy it for those uses. The good games will help out also.

I am by no means an expert but I do not see any reason why a very motivated M$ can't and shouldn't catch up with the next version. If they don't come out a year after PS3 they should be fine.

This is the latest of Sony's worries,they got big problem now
TOKYO — Sony Bank said Thursday it posted a net loss of 4.47 billion yen in the year ended March 31, its second year of business, after a net loss of 4.14 billion yen during its first 10 months to March 31, 2002.

Sony Corp launched the Internet-only bank in June 2001. Sony Bank's assets on deposit, including deposit money and investment trusts, grew 2.3 times during fiscal 2002 to 257.21 billion yen, and the balance of its loans increased 35.4 times to 22.46 billion yen.
Link below
http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content...at=4&id=259954

My 2 cents...

IMO, until Microsoft takes care of its Achilles' Heel, it will be very difficult for it to have a fighting chance with Sony.

And that is the Japanese market.

The X-Box has had some success in the US mostly because it has very good US developers' support. However, THAT IS NOT ENOUGH. Microsoft has failed to attract Japanese developers, thus causing the machine to flop there. As catch-22s go, this means that none of the big Japanese developers will choose to debut its AAA titles exclusively for the X-Box (something they have no qualms doing with the PS2, because there is market on both sides).

And don't think Japanese developersa are not important. With the exception of the moderately strong Sega support, most other big companies (Konami, Square Enix, Capcom, etc.), just won't debut their top titles as exclusive on the machine. Once the X-Box starts getting RPGs like Star Ocean and Final Fantasy, classics like Castlevania, big titles like Metal Gear and Resident Evil, then this will help to:
a) diversify its inherently very PC and US-oriented core user base
b) add strength to its library

If Microsoft goes out of its way to rectify this and shore up some good AAA titles from Japan, then its chances at succeeding will be greatly magnified. People like me, for example, like to play Japanese games on my console, and US games on my PC. With the lack of Japanese games on the X-Box, I just completely pass on it and stick to my PC for games on the X-Box. Microsoft needs to woo people like me over by the next generation.

Wow people just can't get over the fact that M$ is losing some money on xbox it is not a big deal. You know something if M$ has to lose money by gaving me a hard drive and internet out of the box more power to them. At least I don't have to spend damn $45 on two damn memery cards like I did for my PSX2. The xbox is the fature of gaming Sony sould have waited a year and not been scared of the damn DC and gaven me a hard drive and internet out of the box.

Also the fact that M$ has beat the big N at all in this gen is I think a very very big deal. I mean I paid $300 for my xbox but I don't mind it and I don't feel ripped off. I know when I was paying for my two pack memery cards I had a feeling of being ripped off. Also in June I will be helping the big N out by getting that new GC and GBA player bundle

I myself hope Xbox and GC hands PSX2 it's ass. Also forgot I love my DD in-game on xbox I don't own a damn $500 sound system for nothing. Man this M$ is losing money stuff is getting so damn old.

Kainan, I don't think my post made Sony out to be a Hero. I don't feel that way at all.

All I was comenting on was MS's past history of taking the number 1 spot through hostile, and often illegal (as stated by several court rulings) practices. My main concern lies in MS embeding themself into a position where they can't be replaced or competed fairly with.

The truly sad thing, is that MS will undertake illegal practices knowing in advance they will get caught. All they end having to do is pay a fine in all cases to date. Tell me, how much would you pay to kill off an enemy to your buisness, how much would you pay when you have more money then any other company in the world?

jeffdsmith, shhh... i have a secret. almost every major business is like microsoft.

tobacco, automobile, pharmaceutical, energy, computer, accounting, sports, retail, etc...

it is my understanding that that's what business is. not about fairness - just winning (and not getting caught. if caught, settle but admit no wrong doing...) maybe that sucks as a philosophy, but we live in a capitalist society.

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i should add that i do think fair competition is the ideal.