Josh H

I know some of you eat up sales info, so here's a lengthy analysis. It's a .pdf file, so you'll need Acrobat Reader to access it.

http://www.gkm.com/reports/GamePlay/...ay_2002_07.pdf

For those just interest in the sales numbers through May, here's the total U.S. Sales:

1. PlayStation 2 - 9.2 Million (5.2 games sold for each console)
2. Xbox - 2.1 Million (4.2 games sold for each console)
3. GameCube - 1.7 Million (3.6 games sold for each console)

YujiNaka

Interesting how good the Xbox's and Gamecube's games per console rate is considering its been out for half the period of time..

I imagine that Xbox will have the best games per console rate, but I could be wrong... It will have less systems sold than PS2, and I think more "hardcore gamers" than PS2, so thats why I think so.

Hopefully this Xbox lead over Gamecube in America will help it keep developers coming to make games for it. Gamecube has support from overseas no matter what, Xbox doesn't.

I also wonder what this will look like this time next year, or next February... Does anyone care to make any predictions?

Will Xbox/Gamecube close the PS2 lead? Or will PS2 continue to sell like crazy?

I kind of see one scenario being this
PS2 with the #1 spot, and Xbox and Gamecube basically tied for 2nd, but not that far behind....

Or
PS2 and Xbox eventually tying, with Gamecube remaining as more of a niche *or* the same thing with gamecube/xbox words switched.

well?
-Jim

CreatureX

A recent study by the British research firm Informa Media Group, projects the worldwide sales of the three consoles by the end of 2002. Their research concludes:

PS2 - 48.4 million
GCN - 15.1 million
Xbox - 6.9 million

They also predict that global sales for the video gaming industry in 2002 will top $31 billion!

source: Reuters

Josh H

My prediction.

Neither system will come close to catching up to Sony. They've one this round. Their lead is even more imposing when you look at the worldwide numbers.

30 million PS2s
4.5 million GCNs
3.5 million X-boxes.

As for the battle for second place, I think the gamecube will move ahead in the next couple months and stay there. It's no contest world wide as they have a 1 million console lead.

The U.S. is tougher, but they are only 400,000 behind.

ED is selling consoles as I saw 2 people by a GCN with the game when I picked up my copy, and have read of several people picking up GCNs for ED at the Gamers.com boards.

Plus look at the lineup for the rest of the year. Mario Sunshine, Star Fox Adventures, Resident Evil 0, and Metroid Prime will combine to sell a lot of systems.

The X-box has some great looking games coming out like Splinter Cell, Panzer Dragoon Orta, MGS2: Substance and Shenmue 2. But they aren't really system sellers. Panzer Dragoon was never a huge hit, nor was Shenmue. Most people have already played MGS2, plus it's only exclusive until early next year. Splinter Cell looks good, but doesn't have the star power needed to sell systems to casual gamers, and again is only exclusive until next year.

At any rate, I think the GCN will be ahead by 500,000 to 1 million consoles in the U.S. by the end of 2002.

Josh H

I'd say those are about right.

The PS2 will continue to sell well, and the GCN's big games are going to sell consoles to casual gamers around the world. The X-box's big games look to appeal more to more serious gamers, who likely already own the system.

Spicollidriver1

Anyone who gets Gamespy Daily, gets sales figures quite a bit from Japan, and the Box is getting beat down over there, and you factor in Gameboy Advance (not truly fair but worth mentioning) and Nintendo is killing Microsoft. I think quite a few people will agree if you are not a success in Japan you are in big trouble. I am not saying that X-Box is done ro will be done, but some american gamers need to wake up to the fact that most games, and systems come out in Japan first for a reason.

Wazootyman

Although, keep in mind that the Mega Drive wasn't too much of a success in Japan, while the Genesis tied the SNES stateside

gcribbs

That looks right although I would not be surprised to see the PS2 hit 50 million by years end.

I wonder if 3rd party support will start to slow down even more for the XBox starting next year.

I think the GC will pull ahead in the US and stay ahead by early next year or even the XMas season.

I will have my GC by then

darkside

Things really don't look great for the Xbox, but I'm sure Microsoft will keep up the support as promised. I will definitely get my multiconsole games on the Xbox, but as far as exclusives go the Game Cube and PS2 are the two consoles I'm the most excited about. I can't honestly think of an Xbox exclusive that has me that excited. The only Panzer Dragoon game I liked was Saga and Orta will be nothing like that.

boobietheclown

This kinda reminds me of album sales...my favorite is never at the top.

Which is completely FINE by me. I just hope Microsoft will keep operating until I get tired of gaming, or at least until the PS3 comes out. No disrespect to GCN, I tried it...I just didnt like it.

*shrugs shoulders*

The Bus

The Japan figures aren't the least bit surprising as NO American console has ever won over fans in Japanese soil.

I'm guessing the GC with a lower price point and more family and oldschool games will erase the lead of the X-Box.

darkside

The 3DO had a much better acceptance in Japan. It did much better there than the US.

Josh H

True, but that's not saying much.

The 3DO was just a poorly conceived, overpriced console that sold like crap everywhere.

jeffdsmith

MS is doing well purchasing exclusive good games for the xbox.

The most recent that matters to me is Ninga Gaiden. I remember Tecmo had a poll on their website of which console gamer wanted the sequel on, and it was easily favored for the GC. (Most likely do to such a large core of old school Nintendo folks.) But they ignored that and went where the bling bling was.

Josh H

But they've yet to purchase an exclusive with the star power to sell consoles to casual gamers.

Nintendo grabbed RE, and has their first party games to sell systems to console gamers.

That's why the projections show Nintendo pulling ahead this year.

gcribbs

They aren't willing to lose that much money. Microsoft would have to pay out millions upon millions to get the top exclusives and they already are losing a ton right now on the XBox. instead they are willing to spend decent money to get B list exclusives so that they have some.

By next year when even Microsoft sees the writing on the wall they will stop that I bet. so they will end up with PC ports and PS2 and GC ports with some exclusive content from MS itself.

I expect to see continued support thru this cycle from Microsoft although I would be surprised if they release an XBox 2 based on current sluggish sales.

YujiNaka

I imagine XBox will sell enough systems to go with an Xbox 2, as they also sell more games per system than anybody else, and should be able to continue to do so to its more "hardcore" base of gamers.

Xbox live isn't also being factored in, if this thing does well, I expect alot more systems to be sold, and alot more $$$ to be made by microsoft... After the first $50 for the first year, gamers might be hooked on this XBox Live system, and then continue to pay $10 a month ($120 a year)... a few years of this and they are raking in the serious cash.

-Jim

Josh H

X-box live will bring in some money for MS, but I don't think it will sell consoles. Online gaming isn't that big yet, and it's not exclusive to the X-box either.

I do agree that there will be an X-box 2 though. Gates is too determined to rule the entertainment center to not stick with it.

I doubt there will be an X-box 3 if the X-box 2 is still creating huge losses for MS.

But that's a long ways down the road, so who cares?

Tamrok

With all this talk of exclusive system sellers, people are forgetting one thing. It doesn't have to have "Mario" in the title in order to be a system seller. As I recall, Grand Theft Auto 3 was not a household name, yet it went on to become the leading console seller for Sony. Halo became (and still is) a major console seller for Microsoft but is not a sequel and was unknown before it's release. In fact, Halo helped Microsoft to outsell Nintendo and their better known brands Luigi and Wave Race on the Gamecube. I'm sure some will argue that Luigi is not Mario (which is true) but going into last Christmas, Luigi certainly had much more name recognition than Halo among the average gamer. Yet, in the end, Halo ended up being the more effective system seller. So, it is impossible to say definitively whether any future game is a bonafide system seller until it is actually released.

Josh H

Good points Tamrok.

The X-box still only has Halo as a bonafied system seller though.

But as you say, somthing else could come out and become a system seller.

The advantage Nintendo has with having name recognition for all their major franchises, is that casual gamers will buy systems just to play them simply because they know the name ane have loved the past games.

With games like Halo and other new franchises, it takes a while for word of mouth to get around to the casual gamers and turn the game into a system seller.

GTA3 is a good example. As more postive word of mouth got out, the more the game started selling. Of course it had the advantage of the PS2s much larger user base spreading postive word of mouth as well.

Outlaw

I don't think they plan on making money on the XBox, the newest report said they they're going to lose over $2 billion before the end of the year. But the the thing is I think they're just going to get their name out there. What made me realize this is when I saw a .NET commercial on TV. They have more money than they know what to do with to put out these commercials which no on knows what they're about and drive people nuts. Basically they are trying these tactics in the gaming market.....who knows if it will work.

Josh H

You're exaclty right Outlaw. That's why I said there will be an X-box 2 regardless of how well (or poor) the X-box does.

They're determined to be successful and rule the entertaiment systems (i.e. the story on the next X-box having Tivo technology built in).

They just want to get their name out there, associate with gaming and home entertainment, regardless of the cost this generation.

s}{ammer

the one with tivo technology though isn't xbox 2 is it? I could have sworn that I read they were just going to take xbox technology and add the digital recording to it. Then, release xbox2 in the regular timeframe.

mr.snowmizer

You're right. Xbox 2 will be the next Xbox in 2005 or 2006.

These combination units would just be the current Xbox with whatever new features are added, in the same manner that Panasonic has the Japanese Gamecube/DVD combo unit available, or Pace planned the European set top box/Dreamcast combo.

discostu1337

Ever since the Xbox came out Ive been pretty certain it was the weakest system and will die first. I still stand by my original prediction, and think it may be the biggest bomb in recent video game history.