actually you in my opinion have it backwards. It seems logical however it is not. If sales were great they could afford to invest in cost saving technologies because the high sales would offset any costs associated with this investment. Plus the investment would be recouped due to the high sales. when sales are low. a third party does not see the benefit to make this investment since that investment in capital will not be recouped due to low sales. so microsoft will need to spend all monies to do this themselves.


For Intel they are selling microsoft old chips- the P3. so really the only customer for this is microsoft since it is a slow P3 at that. If they are forced to stop production they will not end up with an inventory of chips. they build to order. so the plant would just manufacture something else. They have no real way to reduce costs since the technology is old. They have no incentive to reduce prices to or below cost.
what benefit do they get for that?

Nvidia is really in the same boat as Intel in many ways. Microsoft paid money to help them develop the chip. true they have no other source for this chip however any technology they invented is theirs to keep. they also build chips to order so they really have no huge inventory sitting around.

Really the only advantage to Microsoft was if the XBox became huge and the partners were making a ton of money. then microsoft could threaten to retool the machine and switch to another company if the costs were not lowered. then compnaies would have an interest in investing their own monies to find costsaving ways to reduce those costs since the XBox was generating huge profits for them that they could not risk to lose.


I would not be surprised to see Microsoft decide to lose a few more billion this cycle and pay for these things themselves. that way even with a #3 console they stick with it and try to move to the #2 console the next cycle or maybe even #1. then after awhile they could show the market that they will stay for the long haul. If they were willing to lose enough money themselves.

Their partners will not lose billions to make the XBox successful for Microsoft.


so I do not seem too serious

Microsoft has a coupe of problems looming for Xbox. Many of which are self made (a fairly normal thing for MSFT).

First is pricing. In every market other than north america, Xbox is more expensive than either of their competitors. Often by as much as $100 US over the PS2 and twice that over Gamecube.

Unfortunately Microsoft's only response is " But you get online gaming out of the box". Which is all well and good, but what games can I play online NATIVELY? Zip. So people see paying an extra $100 for nothing. Then they consider that Sony doesn't have network/HDD included but it's $100 cheaper and has roughly 10 times the titles available. And if you REALLY want the BBA it's just $39.95. Still under the Xbox.
It's a hard sell no matter how you look at it.

Microsoft has stirred up their suppliers as well. They've made no bones over the fact that they are considering developing their own CPU/GPU for Xbox2. Worse they've openly claimed that it's becuase NVIDIA and INTEL are price gouging and they can't compete in the market on price. So they've made no friends there.

Also, they cut off their own heads by not making Halo available for the Japanese launch ( It's STILL Not available). That was a marketting screwup worthy of Sega.

Once again we' re faced with superior hardware and potential being undermined by corporate arrogance and a general misunderstanding of the market (Can we say Saturn, Dreamcast, Gamegear).


Now all the fan boys can go off and bash me for hating Microsoft but you you might want to check my MCSE and MCP creds first.

there is no way the GC is going to be a dead system anytime soon

The Game Cube will be supported to the bitter end, even if sales don't improve. If no one else supports it, Nintendo alone will keep some life it in and Nintendo's games are worth owning a console to play.

The Xbox is a different story. It may already be a dead console (I still think there is time to recover though) and if the major third parties go away there will be no one but Microsoft to support it. Its pretty doubtful they will come through with anything that groundbreaking.

I still think the Gamecube and Xbox can be profitable consoles(though the odds are really against Microsoft) but without a doubt this round of the war is all but over and the PS2 has won. Its leaving its competition in the dust.

Microsoft has got to come through with some big surprises at E3, because what they have in development right now is not enough to overcome the PS2.


BTW, not launching the one A+ title in the Xbox linup, Halo, in Japan was without a doubt one of the all time worst decisions in the history on Video Games. They might as well call it the Sega Xbox, because their decision making reminds me of the Sega Saturn, CDX, etc mistakes.

Exactly, their current line-up won't even be enough to keep the Gamecube from taking a solid hold on second place by the year's end. The GCN is only 200,000 units behind the X-box in the U.S. and has Resident Evil, Eternal Darkness, Mario Sunshine, Star Fox Adventure, Metroid and maybe Zelda coming out this year. All of these should sell consoles, especially Mario, Metroid and Zelda. The RE remake has gotten great reviews and should sell some systems, and if ED lives up to the hype it should sell a lot of consoles.

At any rate, MS better have something huge up their sleeves if they want to hold on to second place, much less catch Sony. The line-up (as per Flay's thread) just doesn't have the type of games that sell consoles to casual gamers. And that's were the battle will be fought. The majority of hardcore gamers have already purchased their next-gen systems.

There is also mentality forming out there that the X-box has too much overlap with the PS2 and PC. I've heard many people say, here, on other forums, and in person, that the best combo to buy is a PS2 and Gamecube.

For example, the below post from this thread.

If the price drops happen (assume the biggest possiblitly $199 PS2 w/o modem/HD and $149 for GCN), this mentality will get worse.

People will look at the games available and say, like gcribbs did, "I can play pretty much every big game if I have a PS2 and a GCN."

Then they'll look at the price and say "I can get a PS2 and a GCN for $350 or an X-box for $300."

Of course both of these problems can be addressed by MS if they can get some big time exclusive games, rather than niche titles like Jet Set Future and Shenmue 2, and find a way to match Sony's price drop.

Since every one is giving there opinions on what the problems with the X-Box are, I'm going to lay out what I think MS should have done with the X-box. Ofcourse, hind-site is 20-20, but still, this is what I would have done in Bill's shoes.

Microsoft knew that PS2 was going to be a comercial success when they started development just because of the user base of the PSX. They also knew somewhat what Sony was planning to do before the system was released. They also interview developers who said that they did not want a system which could do everything. What they should have done is follow Nintendo's lead in developing a system which just played video games but had the ability to be upgraded. It would be like the PS2 except without the DVD Playing Capability or USB ports. This would allow them to better compete with the PS2 as it would be cheeper and have better graphics. Then, when online gaming became a reality, they could release an add on modem and hard drive. Right now I think the X-box is losing potential customers because of the higher price.

Ofcourse, releasing X-box at launch for Japan and Europe would have helped alot too.

I don't know if XBox is quite that bad off. Things do look pretty bad in Japan, but if you want an optimistic view of it, from where they're at, sales can only go up .

In Europe, I think sales will definitely pick up once they cut the price and their game library gets a bit bigger. I'm guessing most of the people on the continent failed to buy the hype and are waiting for MS to actually deliver before jumping on the bandwagon.

Here in the states, I don't think MS could realistically expect the XBox to be doing any better than it already is. They should have an installed base of well over 3 million here by the end of June and that'll be enough to keep the development pipeline moving.

If Sony and Nintendo do drop their prices, MS will have to follow suit, of course, but that would only mean that they'd lose more money than they expected. With $34B in cash and a strangehold on the PC software market, they can easily afford to invest a few billion dollars to establish themselves in a new market.

There's no doubt that MS will have some interesting announcements at E3. They'll likely have a few new games/development deals to announce. They'll probably start to give details about their online plans. But whether they have anything earthshattering remains to be seen.

Do you think it's safe to buy the XBOX? I want to get it (because of Halo, knights of the republic, GTA3) but I'm hesitant that we're going to see a Sega type of console failure. What do you think?

If there's enough games on the X-box that you like to justify purchasing it, then I say go for it.

MS has extremely deep pockets, I don't think they'll give up on the X-box, even if it fall to a distant third place.

I bought one and Halo is a great game. However, its a tough call. Its seems like another Dreamcast to me, but I really liked the Dreamcast.

To be completely honest the safe bet right now is a PS2 if you don't already own one. After E3 we will have a better idea of the Xbox future.

Microsoft will support the Xbox to the bitter end because they can afford it, but if the Japanese third parties turn away from it (which is almost a sure thing now) it probably won't have enough quality software to make it worth owning. The quality games from third parties will more than likely be on the PS2 as well, so the Xbox will be anything but a must own system.

First, if Xbox matches the amount of outstanding DC titles, I would consider it the total opposite of failure. It would be a resounding success.

Second, Microsoft is no Sega. Sega's guppy-like relative size forced them out of the game. Where were the resources (and desire) to take on Sony in 2000 like they took on Nintendo in 1991? They never recovered financially from Saturn.

MS, on the other hand, adds $1 billion per month in liquid assets. They must, for all intents, be near $40 billion just sitting in the bank by now. And they make over $1 billion per year in interest just on these assets.

Is there anybody here that thinks Gates does NOT have a HUGE interest in a set-top box that dominates the living room in the broadband era? Any set-top box HAS to be a game-playing machine, if only to match Sony's plans. And if Microsoft doesn't ride Xbox out at any cost, there's NO chance they can then come back in 2005 and say, "Forget Playstation 3 and forget us screwing our original Xbox customers; we're serious this time."

If they back out now, they're done. Forget what the costs of Xbox components are. Microsoft can, and will, drop the price when they have to. They can't afford not to.

Are you a betting man? Sony has a proven product with multiple games which are simply amazing, and tons more which are very fun to play. The X-box has yet to prove itself. If you think that MS will definitely pull through and get the games you want on their system, then buy an X-box. If you have any doubt in MS, buy a PS2. The games are already there for PS2, you might have to wait awhile before you have a great X-box library.

It's definitely safe, it also makes for a great region 2 DVD player after importing the dongle from Japan or Europe.

personally I would wait till after E3 in May.see if the price drops and if it does and you like the games then buy it. I believe and have always believed that the PS2 would be number one and pull a majority of games to it. I felt that the XBox would slip into third because i did not see them being able to get any real support in Japan.

the fact that you might be able to use it for a region 2 dvd player is really a weak one since dvd rom drives can be hacked or even some Apex 69 dollar dvd players can do that.

Personally I see the best combination is the PS2 and the GC. you will get 99% of all games with that combination. the majority of the 1% will end up being ported to the PC anyway from the XBox.

So other than a few titles owned and produced by Microsoft which they might hold out from the PC. what real exclusives will you miss long term with the PS2/GC combo?


So if I was a betting person I would wait till after E3 and buy those two consoles. or in my case the one GC

Why would weak sales in Japan cause the Xbox to go to 3rd in the US? They have Sega in their back pocket. Capcom is making games too. That doesn't make much sense.

The fact you can hack a DVD ROM is a weak argument because you'd need a great video card to do TV-out and also convert PAL to NTSC. Not to mention have the PC located next to your TV it's worthless anyway. As for the Apex, the quality of the MS dvd player is better than that and I heard that Apex no longer supports PAL conversion. Having a high quality multi-region PAL converting machine is a great one. The Xbox doesn't even have layer skips (something that used to annoy me on my older DVD player).

Anyway And if he waits until after E3 to buy a GC he might as well wait until Xmas because that'll be the time they finally get any good games out. Is your GameCube collecting as much dust as mine? My Xbox has seen a lot more action in the past few weeks.

actually I think they will fall to third place in worldwide sales. then as the games materialize for the GC the XBox will slip into third here in the states. many games are released worldwide so worldwide numbers do make a difference to development houses.

actually I am playing my PS2 now and will be playing my GC after i buy it after E3 and after the price drop(I hope).

Sony's hardware design was revolutionary, while the Saturn was evolutionary and $100 more expensive, and the N64 was a year and a half away and cartridge based (FMV sold consoles in 1995).

The Playstation won out because it was a much better system. In this generation, people hate the XBox controller, they hate the big machine, and they hate Microsoft. What's more, the PS2 is well entrenched, which nothing was when PSX came onto the scene. XBox actually looks more like the N64, only without the huge demand at launch, and without the amazing first party support (well, short of Bungie, but Halo was in design for 4 years. They won't have that much development time within the life of the XBox to make another game like that).

Amid all the controversy I went and bought an XBOX yesterday. Maybe I'm crazy, but to me the playing time I will get from now until after E3 will be worth the money I might save by waiting. Then again, I am not very good at waiting.

I don't think you are crazy at all. I bought my Xbox and I love it. My friends love it & are envious. After playing with mine, a friend bought one right then & my other friends are considering it. The only problem is my friends are not "gamers" so they may not be the most desired demographic. But it seems that everyone I know who has played the Xbox wants one. It all comes down to price & time like everything else.

I guess I am one of the few who think this way but I have enjoyed a trickle of games coming so I can try many as they come out. I know what is coming & there have not been a ton of crappy games like I found with my original PS1. I think anyone got a license to sell/develop software eventually on that system. It seems everyone wants 200 games to choose from right off. But again...I am a casual gamer & don't take this stuff too seriously. I guess I should since I was burned by the Sega CD & 32X.

But anyway...enjoy your Xbox. I don't think you will regret your decision to buy one. I haven't.

I agree with you 100%! Everyone who has played X-Box games with me on my home system are amazed. One of them has purchased an X-Box because of it, and others are thinking about it...

Talking about not being their main demographic though... We frequently have a Ph.D. and several M.D.'s playing games on my system (teacher and medical residents). I'm pretty certain this isn't what most people had in mind as their target audience...

I still maintain that I am happier with the X-Box's current lineup than I was with the PS2's when it had been out for less than 5 months...

The Genesis seemed to survive just fine being a US hit and Japanese failure. And that was when the US market was smaller than the Japanese. Now that that US market has become the biggest in the world and the Western developers plentiful, there's no reason why a US-centric system can't thrive.

Also, the double standard demonstrated here between X-Box and Gamecube is embarrassing. Gamecube, in third place with weak developer support and only about 4 games in the next 2 years that could be major hits is somehow considered a safe bet. Do you remember the N64? At the end of the day, despite it's seemingly long life, it had less great games than either the Saturn or Dreamcast! I'm sure Nintendo made out well with it, but since most of us don't have a piece of Nintendo, why would we care? Because as consumers, we got screwed. But since Nintendo was doing the screwing, I guess all of the long time gamers got a bit nostalgic and didn't mind.

X-Box, second place, with the best graphics, online play, DVD player, tons of media support, and a determined deep-pocketed backer who is clearly doing everything it can to get as many games as possible is considered on death row. What the...? Is it because they're trying to be number one? Maybe they should just release HALO sequels and a handful of great games every few years and then everyone will start saying the X-Box is a good choice.

It's not just that. They are only 200,000 a head of the Gamecube in the U.S. The Gamecube has several system seller games (meaning games that will get casual gamers to purchase it) coming out this year, where as I see none on the X-box's release list.

Plus, with poor Japanese sales will mean less support from Japanese developers. And most console gamers would argue that Japanese developers make the best games. But we've had that debate before.

4 games? Resident Evil, Eternal Darkness, Mario Sunshine, Star Fox Adventures, Resident Evil 0, Metroid and possibly Zelda by the years end.

All of these will sell GCNs, and a couple of them will be huge hits and sell a ton of consoles, namely Mario. The GCN will be solidly in second place by year's end.

And that's not counting the non-exclusives like Soul Calibur 2 (though it's supposedly hitting the GCN first), Sega Sports, EA Sports etc.

In the future there will be games from Rare (Kameo, Banjo-Kazooie, Perfect Dark) and more great support from Nintendo with games like Mario Kart, as well as getting great support from third parties.

It's the X-box that has a lack of games coming out, especially a lack of exclusive games. It's library if full of PS2 ports and PC type games that don't appeal to the average console gamer.

Name any X-box game coming out this year that will sell as many X-box's to casual gamers as Mario, RE etc. will sell GCNs.

not even worth responding to the 4 games in 2 years comment, except to say... what the heck are you talking about there?

the Xbox may have the best grpahics, a DVD player, some good support, and deep pockets, but what does that really have to do with gameplay? absolutetly nothing... nothing at all. i like games to look good, but how they play is the most important thing. and who cares about the fact that you can play DVDs on it? who uses their Xbox or PS2 as their primary DVD player anyway.

the online factor is what gives MS a great card to hold in their deck, as well as the ability to put your own music into games. however, if sony goes online at the same time as MS, it will again come back to games. so all the hardware in the world will not matter. it will, as it always has been and will be, about the quality of games being released.

nintendo has a pretty good 1st party lineup for the rest of the year, while most of my friends with Xboxes seem to be waiting for PS2 ports (GTA3), or PC games (MOH). MS needs some more HALO quality exclusives to stay in it. nintendo seems to have the ball in their court. but who knows... a few more delays... some bad reviews... and in 6 months we could be talking about nintendo like we are about the Xbox right now.


--side note---

4 games in the next 2 years?

I do, is there a problem with that? It helped finance my purchase of the Xbox and I consider it better than my old DVD player, my old one stuttered during layer changes and my xbox eats those for lunch.

You imply that graphics does nothing for gameplay, yet people are content watching sports or movies they don't care much about in HD just to see beautiful detail of HD. Are you implying the Xbox games don't have gameplay? Because that's baloney.


Are you assuming the Xbox games won't be of the same quality as the PS2 games? I'd rather play NFL Fever online than the horrible 989 football game. So I ask you, why would the quality of the Xbox games be lower? One has to wonder if the Addon Modem Accessary of the PS2 will even take off? Will people buy it?

I'm not waiting for GTA3 or MOH, I'm waiting for Toejam and Earl, Project EGO, Shen Mue II Xbox style, and the next version of Amped. 6 Months is a long time, I want to play games now.