Flay

CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION
Equity Research
Americas
Internet Software & Services
Heath P. Terry
Andrew Thomas
Interactive Entertainment
Weekly Sales Update

The Week After Thanksgiving

US sell through data for video games decreased an estimated 26% in weekly sales during the week ending December 1st, the first full week after Thanksgiving. The projected Xbox hardware units sold in the third week was 182,000 units, for a total of 738,000 total units in the first 16 days. Approximately 1.74 million Xbox software units were sold during that time period, for a tie-ratio of 2.4. Microsoft's Halo remained in the top spot on the Xbox with over 81,000 units sold in the week.

On Sunday, Microsoft announced they had shipped 1.1 million units to retailers and would ship at least another 300,000 by year-end. This puts them near the top end of the 1.0-1.5 million range the company had guided to and above the 1.3 million we had forecast.

The Gamecube sold over 469,000 units during its first week in the US, but followed with only 65,000 units this past week. Just over 1 million software units have sold since launch, for a tie-ratio of 1.9, the result of the narrow software offering available on launch. The top selling Gamecube title was Nintendo's Luigi Mansion, with nearly 44,000 units sold.

-NPD Trust

That's MS 738,000 to Nintendo's 534,000.

Also worth noting again, these totals are through Dec. 1st

Groucho

If you take those figures and come up with a per day average, the numbers are as follows:

Xbox: 46125 units per day 11/15-12/1
Gamecube: 41077 units per day 11/18-12/1

darkside

Nintendo needs to ship some more stuff. If its not selling its because there is nothing to sell. I haven't seen a Gamecube since before Thanksgiving.

mmconhea

Post Smash Bros Data will probably put the Cube ahead of the X-box. That game is HOT. There was a croud of people yesterday at the local gamestop, just watching it on the demo machine.

mr.snowmizer

Whoever makes the most will sell the most this year. Neither machine will completely satisfy their demand.

Therefore, Xbox will obviously have the lead in North America.

Josh H

In otherwords, the systems are selling about equally.

As I said in the last sales date thread, who really cares. Nintendo is going to stay around because they have a large, loyal fan base, and if MS keeps putting out games like Halo, DOA3 and Oddworld that sell systems they will be fine too.

Feneant

I think Future Shop hasn't even gone through it's first shipment of Gamecubes yet. Nintendo seems to be a lot less popular around here than in the US and Japan, I remember the N64 games at the videogame store(s) I went to, they were never out and some games had not even rented out once. Back in the SNES day, Nintendo killed, now, someone should kill them. (First step, MS buying Taketwo).

Aghama

Good point, if Nintendo can't regain marketshare in Canada, they're doomed.

Gallant Pig

I think it's theoretically possible Nintendo could pull a Sega, but they'd really have to go down the crapper (remember the Japanese sales have also been light for GCN). Hopefully they won't, though.

joltaddict

I seriously doubt Nintendo's gonna pull a Sega. They supported the N64 for 5 years by themselves without flinching. This gen they have what are (IMO) the two best third party companies fully supporting them in Capcom and Sega.

Anyways numbers-shumbers Im a gaming whore Im going where the games are and the Cubes the only place Im going to be able to get certain gaming fixes. When you see a Mario-Metroid-Zelda-Turok-Conker machine I wont be alone.

SmackDaddy

I agree to an extent.

Now that there are 3 consoles that are basically on equal footing powerwise and 3rd party support wise, Nintendo won't be able to get away with constant delays and few and far between AAA titles(but they also have to be careful and not blow all their marquee titles at once, catch 22). I think the lack of launch titles is hurting them right now.

But, as has been stated before, it's what happens next year that will begin to tell who will come out on top and who wil be the also ran.

darkside

Even if the Game Cube turns out to be exactly like the N64 I will still be happy. I bought it for the Nintendo first party games. Anything else like Tony Hawk 3 and Madden 2002 is just gravy. I realize I'll have to get a PS2 next year to get everything I want to play.

Nintendo is a very profitable company, unlike Sega, so they will fully support the Game Cube for the next 5 years just like the N64. Even if they end up in third place among the consoles, their first party titles will still be among the top sellers of the year just like always.

Icculus

I don't know if the article you read mentioned this but the PS2 sold 241,000 units during that same period ( http://www.gaming-age.com/cgi-bin/ne...2&nid=10-41.db ). I just thought it was interesting. I don't know how to link but that should work anyway (I know, you'd think I would know how to link by now especially considering I have.04 posts per day...)

Draven

I think it's pretty regional too, as our local Best Buy had over 100 X-box's this past Saturday and no Gamecubes.

I'm gonna get a PS2 now, anyway, since I realized that both systems have one game each I want to play, while the PS2 has like 10.

Tuan Jim

I've been wanting to demo some cube games but the local gamestop doesn't have a machine -- IIRC they haven't even fulfilled their initial pre-orders due to shipping delays.

Tuan Jim

belboz

I've said it before and I'll say it again, selling that first million or two is cake. There's a large hard-core market that will always snap up the latest console so these can be considered pretty much automatic sales. Even the Saturn sold 2+ million units. DC made it to 1 million in record time.

The success or failure of either of these consoles won't be evident until early next year.

Josh H

Actually more like early 2003 when both systems have been out for over a year and have been through another holiday period.

Gallant Pig

Totally agree with Hinkle. Next Xmas and post Xmas is key. Since no new consoles will be out next year, it will be a big battle between the consoles.

C-Killer Redux

Nintendo should really be hitting it's stride around the arrivals of Metroid: Prime, Mario Sunshine, and Resident Evil. However, I do think it's entirely possible for them to pull a Sega. Arguably the N64 sustained as long as it did because of the Mario games(Tennis, Party 1-3, Kart, Paper, Golf) and the Pokemon franchise. Not to mention the compatiblility with the gameboy versions of said Pokemon games. Nintendo will need a huge balance between it's franchise titles and must have, hardcore titles ala' Resident Evil and Metroid:Prime if it hopes to stay in the game well into the next generation.

I admit, I'm a diehard Nintendo fan and have bought a Gamecube before my X-Box. However, still with 2 X-Box titles to my 3 Gamecube titles I'm still playing X-Box and PS2 more.

SpacemanSpiff

not to be a smart ***
but are you guys dumb?

you ever heard of a little unit called game boy advance

the sales on that bad boy will keep nintendo around longer than anybody else

Gallant Pig

Yeah, we're dumb.

Don't know if you realize this or not but Sega dumped a less profitable part of the company and now specialize in a more profitable part of their company. Why couldn't Nintendo do the same with the GCN? Notice this thread is about GCN and not the GBA.

BTW: Am I the only one underwhelmed by the GBA this Xmas season? Other than a nice RPG, there are no must-get titles. In fact, the big N didn't even develop that RPG (Golden Sun). Wario Land 4? Zzzzzzzz.... I hope they kick it into gear on that thing, or Sony could actually end up with a large part of their share if and when they develop a more powerful portable with a screen that doesn't suck bad.

darkside

Game Cubes are shipping this week. Walked into Target tonight and they had several cases of them.

Finally got an extra controller.

belboz

I think we'll have pretty good indications of where each console stands by early next year. The answers to certain questions should be clear. For example, will all that announced developer support for XBox actually materialize? Will GC break Nintendo out of its current young and family oriented gamers niche? Will either XBox or GC have a realistic chance to challenge PS2 for market leadership?

joltaddict

Josh H

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I think it will be early 2003 before we get any clear answers to the questions you pose above. It will be over the summer, and the through the holiday season, that we will begin to see the big releases piling up for each system. Both systems only have a couple big games coming out in early 2003 IMO. I say whoever wins the holiday 2002 battle will get second place in the console wars. As much as I hate to say it, neither GC or X-box has any real hope of edging out the PS2.