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New NPD Trust Sales Numbers. Gamecube is lagging.

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New NPD Trust Sales Numbers. Gamecube is lagging.

Old 12-11-01, 07:56 AM
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Originally posted by joshhinkle



As much as I hate to say it, neither GC or X-box has any real hope of edging out the PS2.
There are 20 million PS2's in people's houses. Sony is no doubt the current king.

I agree with the statement that the Xbox is probably winning because there are more available (and no, I am not pro GC, anti-Xbox - I like both).

What is aggravating is the fact both of the new systems have a small mount of marquee launch games.

I like both the Xbox & the Gamecube. Halo is great, Rogue Squadron II is fantastic. DOA3 has wonderful graphics and gameplay (per my friend, I have never liked fighting games that much). SSSB:M is racking up the great reviews. 3/4 of the other new games, though, are merely average (or so I have read).

All three systems are great! At the rate they are all selling, the support will be there for all of them for a while. This is a good time to be a video game fan. And I finally found a Gamecube (and a black one at that!). A friend has an X-box which I can play anytime, so I picked up the GC - it's basically like having both.
Old 12-11-01, 08:07 AM
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Lack of quality titles at launch is always a problem and always will be. The PS2 had a terrible launch software wise. The Game Cube is probably the best launch for overall titles ever for a Nintendo console, but it is missing the one killer Mario 64 type platform game. Luigi's Mansion, Tony Hawk 3, and Smash Bros have more than filled my need for the rest of the year and I have no complaints.

I agree that 2003 will be the best time to know who is the top console. Both the Xbox and Game Cube will probably sell well for several months, but next Christmas will show us the one consumers want the most. I think the PS2 will be number one, but how close the competition will be is anyones guess.
Old 12-11-01, 09:24 AM
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Im probally alone in thinking this but I feel the PS2 has peaked. It a real possiblity that its all downhill from here. Just look at the new Max Payne release. The PS2 version pales in comparision. The quality differences will only become more pronounced as we go forward. This huge userbase really wont effect the sell through ratios if the vast majority of PS2 owners end up waiting on a possible better version elsewhere. The few direct apples to apples comparisions we can make at this time is pretty one sided, looking at NHL2002 and Payne. And these are practically launch titles against second generation.
The irony is Sony hurt themselves by stressing "The Future of Gaming" and "The Most Powerful Gaming Machine" when going up against the Dreamcast. Now the "Its all about the games" matra looks like backpedaling. The best move they can make right now is a price cut and that may be even worse in the long run because it only reenforces a stereotype of the PS2 as being the inferior system.
Old 12-11-01, 10:59 AM
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[Cheese] Folks, the real winners are the gamers [/Cheese]

Anyways, I've been doing a lot of debating with Fanboys, hardcore gamers, developers and even journalists and gaming amatures abot the Console wars.

Here's a few points that fit into the debate:

MYTH: More consoles means more games for us.

FACT: Although more consoles mean more slices of the gaming market, it hurts developers in the long run. Who wants to develop 3 versions fo the same game rather than one in order to sell a million copies. Now, more resources must be spent on developing multiple versions of the same game rather than different games.

MYTH: MicroSoft has deap pockets. They are in it for the long run.

FACT: MicroSoft can sink as much money into building a gaming empire with tons of purchased exclusives and first party developers, but if they don't start turning a profit within a few years (and yes, that means earning back all the money the spent thus far) they will dump the gaming industry. The stockholders will not tollerate substantial losses over the long term. especially with the economy like it is.

FACT: The biggest console in the world is Game Boy Color. GameBoy Advance is closing in fast. Although the Gamecube is pretty much a failure in Japan, the eventual tie-in of GBA games with the Cube is essential to the success of the Cube in its home market. The Nintendo 64 saw drastic jumps in sales when GB compatable technology was released for the 64.

MYTH: Microsoft DVD's can be copied, Nintendo's cannot.

FACT: Microsoft DVD format has been partially cracked. A simple copy method (using your own PC) may be availible within the next year. Nintendo's proprietary format will a tough wall to climb, but a 3rd party appliance my finally allow copying of Cube games. This will take longer to develop and will be expensive (a la Dr. 64)

MYTH: PS2 is out of the running.

FACT: Well, PSONE was expected to drop out after the 64 and DC came out. It didn't. In fact games are still coming out for it. Playstation has earned the respect of gamers everywhere. It is a household name. You can't lose that in a console war. Although developement problems will lead to less than stellar and unpolished games, most of the 3rd party games out there will have a home on this console.
Old 12-11-01, 12:04 PM
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I've read at a couple forums where people state the Gamecube is a big disappointment in Japan. I'm not questioning the truth to this, but where as this been discussed more thoroughly (i.e sales numbers, etc.)

When exactly was it released in Japan?
Old 12-11-01, 12:15 PM
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Originally posted by freudguy

When exactly was it released in Japan?
The week of September 11. As you can imagine, people weren't exactly flooding the stores to buy video games at that time.
Old 12-11-01, 01:41 PM
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Originally posted by freudguy
I've read at a couple forums where people state the Gamecube is a big disappointment in Japan. I'm not questioning the truth to this, but where as this been discussed more thoroughly (i.e sales numbers, etc.)

When exactly was it released in Japan?
www.cloudchaser.com has a weekly report on the state of the cube in Japan.
Old 12-11-01, 02:12 PM
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I disagree with one statement that we will not know until 2003 who will win. I think we will know by this E3 in 2002. if the games do not materialize for the Xbox and GC then they will not gain marketshare on the PS2. The games will need to be announced by or close to E3 to get out by Xmas 2002 so if they get the games then we will have an idea who is going to move up.

the PS2 will still be ahead of both the XBox and GC if they never sell another unit from now till Xmas 2002 which we know will not happen. so what we are looking at is who will be second and maybe who will be set up for the next generation win. I think this is still up in the air. The strong PS2 numbers so far shows that people will still buy it. In fact I think the surprising PS1 numbers show the strength of the Sony name in consoles right now.

frankly I am happy to see the excitement in the console gaming right now
Old 12-11-01, 03:30 PM
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Originally posted by mmconhea

MYTH: More consoles means more games for us.

FACT: Although more consoles mean more slices of the gaming market, it hurts developers in the long run. Who wants to develop 3 versions fo the same game rather than one in order to sell a million copies. Now, more resources must be spent on developing multiple versions of the same game rather than different games.
How is the above a fact? "OPINION" might have been a better choice of words. You seem to imply that the gaming market stays the same size no matter how many consoles are introduced. I disagree. More total users are drawn in when a new console is introduced. More money is thrown around to attract consumers, so the total number of potential buyers for a game does increase. On top of that, having multiple platforms allows you to space out and stagger your releases better, instead of having everything hit at the same time on the same console with some games getting lost in the rush.

Yeah, more resources have to be spent making ports, but it's more made up by the increased revenue. And the small developers which often get the porting jobs can also use the money to fund their own original games (Treyarch).

One other thing: I have no statistics to show this, but I get the feeling that a game released on three systems with 1 million users each would sell more overall copies than the same game released only on one system with an installed base of 3 million. The game just has a chance to look fresh and new 3 separate times and it's easier for the marketing to reach a greater percentage of the user base of each system.
Old 12-11-01, 04:02 PM
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Originally posted by joltaddict
Im probally alone in thinking this but I feel the PS2 has peaked. It a real possiblity that its all downhill from here. Just look at the new Max Payne release. The PS2 version pales in comparision.
Of course, if you consider that Max Payne is a PC game, PC games to X-Box conversion is really not much work at all (they have the same hardware anyways). So obviously the X-Box version will be most optimized. The PS2 is a completely different architecture, so if you don't spend extra time to port it, it will obviously be inferior.

As we have all learned, it's not the hardware that determines quality, it's *what* you do with it that matter.
Old 12-11-01, 05:14 PM
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The Game Cube will never do well in Japan until Nintendo starts developing RPGs. Why they have skipped this important genre is a mystery to me. Most of the games they develop seem more suited to the US market. Smash Bros seemed to do well there and once they do a Pokemon Game Cube game they will probably help out their sales. Fact is, the Game Cube like the N64 will have to thrive in the US. Miyamoto knows the reasons why Nintendo console games don't do well in Japan, but he still refuses to change his ways.

If Nintendo was smart they would have had Camelot develop a Game Cube RPG for the launch in Japan.
Old 12-11-01, 05:40 PM
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More consoles in the market is very much a mixed blessing. While it keeps any single manufacturer from behaving monopolistically, it nevertheless imposes certain costs on developers and customers alike.

Gamers either have to pony up several hundred dollars in extra hardware costs or learn to live with the fact that they're not going to get all the best games for their console. While there are many gamers who don't mind that at all, certainly they are in the minority. The vast mainstream portion of the market only owns one console at a time.

Developers have to strategically consider how to best allocate their resources amongst the different consoles and the actual development of multi-platform games necessarily involves compromises to insure portability. To a certain degree, game engines have to be architected to the least common denominator. The fact that the PS2 requires parallel programming techniques only exacerbates this problem.
Old 12-11-01, 05:50 PM
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Originally posted by mmconhea
Nintendo's proprietary format will a tough wall to climb, but a 3rd party appliance my finally allow copying of Cube games. This will take longer to develop and will be expensive (a la Dr. 64)
Where are you getting your information for this? I don't think the format is proprietary at all. GC games should fit nicely on 3-inch DVD-R's like these:

http://www.cdmedia-dvd.com/shopping/cdmedia/dvdr.htm

1.5 GB capacity is what GC discs are, right? Just like these DVD-R's?

Then it's just a matter of getting the Cube to recognize the burned disc as a real disc, through a mod chip or something.
Old 12-11-01, 06:33 PM
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Originally posted by gcribbs
I disagree with one statement that we will not know until 2003 who will win. I think we will know by this E3 in 2002. if the games do not materialize for the Xbox and GC then they will not gain marketshare on the PS2.
E3 won't give us any clear indications IMO. All E3 consists of is a big geeky hype-fest. You can't really base much on announcements and pre-release hype. We'll have to wait until fall/early 2003 for the big hyped up games shown at E3 to be released. Once they are released, we'll be able to see if they are any good or not, how we'll they sell, and if they are good enough to sell Gamecubes and/or X-boxes.
Old 12-11-01, 07:55 PM
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Originally posted by Todd B.
Where are you getting your information for this? I don't think the format is proprietary at all. GC games should fit nicely on 3-inch DVD-R's like these:

http://www.cdmedia-dvd.com/shopping/cdmedia/dvdr.htm

1.5 GB capacity is what GC discs are, right? Just like these DVD-R's?

Then it's just a matter of getting the Cube to recognize the burned disc as a real disc, through a mod chip or something.
Standard DVD drives won't read the discs, so at least people won't be able to rip their own discs. I seriously doubt self burned DVD-Rs will read in the drive either. I'm sure Nintendo looked at the mistake Sega made with the Dreamcast and will ensure there is no loophole for people to use burned games.

That means people will have to get an add-on device to read the burned games and I can tell you that will kill any major piracy on the Game Cube. These devices are usually very expensive.
Old 12-11-01, 09:39 PM
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Originally posted by Grimfarrow
Of course, if you consider that Max Payne is a PC game, PC games to X-Box conversion is really not much work at all (they have the same hardware anyways). So obviously the X-Box version will be most optimized. The PS2 is a completely different architecture, so if you don't spend extra time to port it, it will obviously be inferior.

As we have all learned, it's not the hardware that determines quality, it's *what* you do with it that matter.
Hardware puts a limit on what a developer can accomplish, no way around it. The Box can work harder, it has more power. Ive been playing the PS2 version of NHL2002, its the most popular game at my buddys house when we all get together, so for every weekend Ive been watching it on this widescreen TV in the middle of the room. Slowdown, choppiness, stuttering... from all acounts this is gone in the Box's version. Thats an EA product NOT a PC port if anybody should have gotten the hang of the PS2s architecture it should be EA. You can say the same for Secret Level's Starfighter. Its a simple port that they obviously didnt spend much time on but all the annoying slowdown is gone. Also NOT a PC port.

Im just saying there is a ceiling to what you gonna see on the PS2 thats not quite as low on the Cube or Box. Its probally going to be more pronounced as we progress into the consoles life cycles and it will most likely effect game sales, regardless of install base.
Old 12-12-01, 12:17 AM
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I honestly don't understand the point of these sales figure threads. If you like the Xbox, great, if you like the Gamecube, great.

What does it matter?
Old 12-12-01, 01:55 AM
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Originally posted by joshhinkle


E3 won't give us any clear indications IMO. All E3 consists of is a big geeky hype-fest. You can't really base much on announcements and pre-release hype. We'll have to wait until fall/early 2003 for the big hyped up games shown at E3 to be released. Once they are released, we'll be able to see if they are any good or not, how we'll they sell, and if they are good enough to sell Gamecubes and/or X-boxes.
I disagree(like that is a surprise )

If at E3 Xbox or GC do not get third party support and the PS2 gets a ton it will show me and others that the developers are going with the PS2. if you see a move towards the XBox and GC and little new announcements for the PS2 jt will show that developers are moving towards the new systems and away from the PS2.

Frankly with the development times needed if you do not see announcements by or close to E3 you will not see the game by Xmas 2002.

I agree the announced games could suck, however if the support does not increase for the other two systems they will not grow faster than the PS2 which they need to do to ever have a chance to catch it in units.

I think this next year is very important for both new systems. It may determine who is 2nd and who remains third. once one pulls too far ahead it is tough to catch up since developers start looking towards the leaders for the increased sales and even if you get the games you end up with a port months later.

Last edited by gcribbs; 12-12-01 at 01:58 AM.
Old 12-12-01, 08:10 AM
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Originally posted by ipkevin


How is the above a fact? "OPINION" might have been a better choice of words. You seem to imply that the gaming market stays the same size no matter how many consoles are introduced. I disagree. More total users are drawn in when a new console is introduced. More money is thrown around to attract consumers, so the total number of potential buyers for a game does increase. On top of that, having multiple platforms allows you to space out and stagger your releases better, instead of having everything hit at the same time on the same console with some games getting lost in the rush.

Yeah, more resources have to be spent making ports, but it's more made up by the increased revenue. And the small developers which often get the porting jobs can also use the money to fund their own original games (Treyarch).

One other thing: I have no statistics to show this, but I get the feeling that a game released on three systems with 1 million users each would sell more overall copies than the same game released only on one system with an installed base of 3 million. The game just has a chance to look fresh and new 3 separate times and it's easier for the marketing to reach a greater percentage of the user base of each system.

Well, do the math. Say you have 3 Million potential buyers of Tony Hawk 4. If Nintendo was the only platform the Dev costs would be an estimated $300K. But if those 3 Million potential buyers were divided amungst 3 consoles, with each additional console chewing up another $100K of development costs.
Old 12-12-01, 08:47 AM
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Originally posted by KnightSkywalker
I honestly don't understand the point of these sales figure threads. If you like the Xbox, great, if you like the Gamecube, great.

What does it matter?
Word. Some people seem to have a fetishistic obsession with the hardware. Flay seems more excited to post negative news on the Cube than he is to post positive info on the Box.

First, second, third, I think all three will have full life cycles. I think there will be a lot of overlap between the PS2 and the XBox and it may not help Sonys chances but I doubt theyll be packing it in. I think thats the root of these threads, people think the system they just dumped $400-ish into will be obsolete in the near future. That really doesnt make much business sense, you recoup your losses over time, pulling the plug early just shoots yourself in the foot.
Old 12-12-01, 08:57 AM
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Re: New NPD Trust Sales Numbers. Gamecube is lagging.

Originally posted by Flay
That's MS 738,000 to Nintendo's 534,000.

Also worth noting again, these totals are through Dec. 1st
I cut this due to length. An important thing to note about NPD is that they do not take into account sales at Wal-Mart stores (read: http://gamespot.com/gamespot/stories...831853,00.html). This probably doesn't affect things much, but the numbers would possibly be closer. Wal-Mart is an important retail establishment, being #1 in selling CDs for example.
Old 12-12-01, 11:25 AM
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Originally posted by mmconhea

Well, do the math. Say you have 3 Million potential buyers of Tony Hawk 4. If Nintendo was the only platform the Dev costs would be an estimated $300K. But if those 3 Million potential buyers were divided amungst 3 consoles, with each additional console chewing up another $100K of development costs.
The main point I was making was that new systems will bring in new gamers. ie Nintendo alone, 3 million interested. Nintendo+MS+Sony, 5 million interested. But if your estimated development costs are right, you can see that even an extra 500,000 potential buyers would make up for those costs more than 20 times over.
Old 12-12-01, 03:28 PM
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I just hope things keep going they way they are currently. It looks like there may be room for all three and thats with a bad economy.

Nintendo is expecting the Game Cube to be turning a profit by March 2002 and they will have 4.5 million Game Cubes shipped to the US by then. Amazing, but they lose very little money on each Game Cube sold and I believe their marketing budget is much smaller than Microsoft. Nintendo looks to be fine by making their console so cost effective, so it will probably be the Microsoft vs Sony that will take center stage next year.

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