Aren't there a lot of people who would never even consider buying an xbOx because that would mean doing business with micro$oft? That is certainly the case with me. It isn't even on my radar.

What I find comical: If the 300,000 units at launch proves true ... all year Microsoft (and Nintendo) were talking about avoiding the horrible launch that Sony had, saying they'd meet and/or exceed demands. But if I remember my pre-school math, 300,000 is 200,000 less than 500,000. What happened there, exactly fellas?

If I remember right the N64 set records when it was launched, the Dreamcast broke it, and the PS2 then broke that one. Granted the PS2 mark was pretty untouchable, but the Xbox launch is not encouraging after the launch success of the previous three consoles and I really don't expect the Gamecube to sell out very quick either.

The PSX didn't sell well at launch, but neither did the Saturn. The only competition was a very aging SNES. The situation for the XBox is very different. They have strong competition from the PS2 which is now hitting its stride, a bad economy thats hurting everyone, and their launching up against a very strong Nintendo brand name. This looks bad for MS, but they can certainly overcome it with the right games. I just hope the games are released in time.

If I was Microsoft I would be worried, but not panicked. They need to figure out what the A+ titles are and promote the heck out of them. Just look what FF VII did for the PSX and GT3 did for the PS2. One or two big games and they will be fine.

Relevant article on News.com...

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200...html?tag=mn_hd.

Here's my viewpoint. Over here, in Los Angeles/Orange County, the X-Box was widely available. Target, EB, Best Buy all had them in stock in the evening... and more than one salesman said they will be getting more early next week. No shortage, at least.

For those in the West Lafayette area looking for an Xbox, both Walmarts still have quite a few.

Everytime I call there to see if they are seliing the gamecube early (see planetgamecube.com) I get some dumb sales person that confuses the console with the xbox. At one point I was told "Yes! We are selling them right now! "(Last night) So of course I got all excited and clarified with her, "this is the GAMECUBE right?" at which point she stuttered and realized she was wrong... blah.

There were 2 XBoxes. Now there are 2. How does that make for a "failed" launch?

I remember last year's PS2 launch. Fights, people getting systems stolen as they leave the store. Few systems availible between launch and Christmas. That's successful?

I see the GC launch going similarly to the X-Box launch. There may be some systems left over Monday, but by the time Tuesday rolls around, they'll all be gone. Of course, the black consoles will be gone within the first few hours.

You reference Nike here. I believe in an earlier post, I spoke of the Nike Air Jordan Retro XI Plus launch in March of this year. Like the Playstation 2, there was a lot of hype over these shoes. If you haven't seen them, they're Grey, a color never worn by Jordan himself. Nike didn't manufacture enough to go around, with many stores getting one pair in each size. When stores opened, people rushed the counters, practically throwing money at clerks. If you were lucky enough to get a pair, then you had to make it to your car without being mugged. Things were so crazy, that a mall in Sacremento was closed for the entire day due to fights and rioting over the shoes. Yeah, the Cool Grey Jordan launch was successful. They sold out. But many people were injured. All for a pair of shoes.

Sound familiar?

Maybe Nintendo and Microsoft learned something from Sony's mistake. There hasn't been the same amount of hype surrounding these machines as there were for the PS2. And they have plans to keep systems flowing through the supply chain for the holiday season.

Besides, as many people have noted, it's not how you start the race, it's how you finish it.

And, for the record, most of the places on the South Side of Chicago that I've visited (I had to go shopping for a LeapPad pro... my X-Box is still sitting in the box ) are down to 1-2 X-Boxes as well.

Which store if I may ask Pablo? The one up by me had 10 X-Box's left but you had to ask for them evidentally. The person that worked there believed they also got 24, but because the demand was so low they put the boxes in the back figuring anyone who wanted it would ask for it. This was at about 7pm last night, they were also talking about getting more units in this morning.

From that foxnews.com article:

Influential Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker has suggested Microsoft could lose $1 billion on the Xbox by fiscal 2004 before breaking even, assuming the product sells well.

Ouch.

I'm not a Microsoft fan, but I don't think this is a failed launch. The bottom line is that Microsoft will sell enough XBoxes to establish a user base. It probably won't be near the PS2's number of users (at least for a long time), but who expected that with the PS2's one year head start?

Microsoft has invested a LOT of money in this thing and they have enough money to stick it out. While I don't want to see you guys who have invested in an XBox lose your investment, I admit, I'd wouldn't mind seeing it fail. That's just my dislike of Microsoft.

But, if I had bought one, I think I'd feel pretty confident. I just can't see Microsoft walking away from this thing.

Worst case scenario: the quote above turns out to be accurate, third party support dries up somewhat, the XBox becomes the third most popular gaming console.

Even under that scenario, I don't think XBox owners would feel like they were left out in the cold. Somehow, I think you'll get your $300 out of this thing, even if it's not around in 2003.

What I think will happen: The launch will be labelled as 'somewhat lackluster' mainly becuase it will invaribly be compared to the PS2 launch. Fanboy flamewars will reach an unprecedented level. Even so, a lot of XBoxes will sell, bringing those third party developers who have been holding back somewhat, out of the woodwork. XBoxers will be happy, but the machine won't be a smash hit in it's first year (in the eyes of analysts at least). Microsoft will rely on it's deep pockets to stick around and eventually, the machine will establish itself as a very successful console. Meanwhile, XBoxers are still happy.

Maybe I don't know enough about the video game industry, but that seems like a likely scenario to me.

I think the big question is whether or not there is room for 3 consoles. I keep hearing that based on past history, it just won't happen. If that turns out to not pan out and all 3 consoles survive (and thrive), then we as consumers win.

Do any of the big XBox fans want to see Microsoft with no competition? I hope not (and I doubt it). Realize that Microsoft wouldn't be selling this thing for $300 if they didn't feel that they have to.

Gromit,

I think your assessment is on target. I am a big fan of the xbox but also own N64 and PS2 and will probably get a Gamecube. I think the consumer definitely wins out when there is more competition. The consoles will improve, and the games will too. Fanboys that want to see their console eliminate the competition are ignorant as to what a "one console town" will do to the console gaming industry. Competetion in any industry promotes continuous improvement, stimulates new ideas and helps to keep the prices down.

You might be able to find those 1 or 2 big games from this list.
Gamespot's XBOX games list.

reasons for xbox low key launch
1) Down economy
2) Other concerns (war + terrorism)
3) GC launch pending
4) Down economy
5) Down economy
6) Job security -layoffs, etc
7) Down economy

Wow, the human race never fails to completely amaze me with its stupidity.

Which is, of course, why M$ is so successful...

Competition usually is good for consumers, but, in this market, competition splits the supply of games over several incompatible platforms. Consumers must either choose which games to do without, or buy three different analogous products, to the tune of $800.

Competition also doesn't necessarily keep the price down. The hardware prices are set at the highest level that the mass market will tolerate. At $299 you sell a lot more systems than you do at $399. Even if there is only one console on the market, if it fails to install a user base, it will die.

Nobody really only wants to see one console in town, but the conventional wisdom is that only two can be supported by the market. So one console is likely marked for death, regardless of how good competition may be for the consumer.

Well, yes and no. Sony only managed to ship half a million units for launch. That was more than any console had ever launched with before, but it was still not enough to meet the huge demand for PS2 systems.

Many of those half million were sold as preorders months in advance. Store employees snapped up many of the rest, especially in stores that got low numbers in stock. At stores like Best Buy, where each location managed to get over 100 units, people lined up.

I lined up at one of them. They had 125 systems, and they started turning people away at 2:30 in the morning, 8 hours before the store opened.

Whatever wasn't sold pre-launch sold in minutes in most places. Sony continued to ship 100,000 units per week, but you still couldn't walk into a store and expect to find PS2 in stock until around March, after the October launch. Stores just couldn't keep them on the shelves.

Microsoft shipped somewhere from 200,000 to 300,000 units for X-Box launch, depending on your source. They had none of the problems of the PS2 launch. But this is not because Microsoft managed things better. It is because there simply was not the same frenzy for X-Box that existed for PS2.

FYI....if I remember correctly PS2 launch was supposed to 500,000, but only about 250,000 made it in time for launch. And that 100,000 a week was on a slow boat from Japan.

Here in Austin it was at least 2 weeks before most places got anymore past initial launch day.

How many consoles you make and sell on launch day doesn't mean squat. Word on the street and the ability to keep units in the supply chain will make all the difference in the world.

The road is long for MS. It will be hard to overcome a 100 million unit deficit that MS has to the PS1 and PS2 combined.

The critical time is what happens in the next few weeks.

-Naan

Wrong. The N64 launched with 500,000 units in the US as well. I beleive the number may have been even more in Japan. Not certain on that though.

Gee. Sounds like Microsoft should just declare Chapter 11 now. I find it endlessly humorous that everyone debates the issue about PS2 vs GC vs XBox. I owned a Dreamcast (RIP). I still think in many ways the gameplay was better than PS2, but the company basically couldn't market its way out of a paper bag (or design a controller that didn't cripple you). My brother-in-law owns a PS2 and it's cool, but I opted to get an XBox, and I'm totally pleased. Let's all face it. There will never be JUST ONE system. This isn't Highlander. Everyone should enjoy what they have and respect the difference of opinions. Yes, Microsoft views itself as the big bully on the block. Sony likes to just stand by its name and talk about how great the PSOne is/was. Nintendo? No comment. Let's face facts. Microsoft is a smart company. They knew what they stood to lose before some Financial Bozo came up with his analysis. Bill Gates knows that he would rather capture every dollar available by keeping the market awash in XBoxs rather than have Bobby Ray sell one on Ebay for 2 times what he sells them for to the public. Does anyone consider WHY PS2 seemed so popular? Supply shortage maybe? Can you say Tickle-Me-Elmo? Sony isn't going anywhere. Microsoft isn't going anywhere. Nintendo will always be around in some form or another like SEGA. Hell I'm glad some friends have a PS2. It's nice to have some variety out there.

I'm thinking you're mis-remembering it. Every press release I've seen from Sony indicates they had shipped 500K for North America launch day. They had initially promised 1M, but the official story is that component shortages forced them to cut that to 500K.

As to their resupply, the fact that they easily met their 1.5 million target for that quarter suggests they did indeed manage to make good on their promise of 100K units/week.

And while I agree that a weak launch doesn't necessarily doom you, I'm quite sure it doesn't help. Of course, we don't have good numbers on the XBox launch yet, so the jury is still out that.

Wouldnt surprise me that I remembered incorrectly. I knew they had made one prediction, and then only shipped half of that, but the actual numbers were a bit fuzzy.

-Naan

What happened to NVIDIA's prices once they bought out 3dfx?

Sounds good to me; sell the assets and give the money back to the stockholders

No... You're remembering that the shipment was cut in half. They were planning to ship a million units, and only shipped 500,000. But PS2 definitely launched with 500,000 units.

As far as the 100,000 per week, a lot of them went straight to pre-orders that were unfilled on release day. Sony ended up shipping over a million by Christmas, but you still couldn't find them in most stores until March.

Word on the street helps, but the word on the street last year was that PS2 was the thing to own, and Microsoft is getting no such buzz this year. The fact is, games don't sell systems, hype does. Microsoft didn't have the hype going into the launch, and it's going to be hard to build it when the system didn't exactly make a grand entrance. The press response hasn't been particularly favorable either.

I think if MS trails by more than 250,000 units to Gamecube, after Christmas, it will never make up the difference.

Are you sure about that? They would have flooded the shelves. N64 launched in early September, and didn't become super hot items until November.

Regardless of how much money Microsoft spent on advertising, they definitely didn't have nearly the amount of hype that the PS2 did. I remember that even before the DC came out, magazines were comparing it to the PS2. It's my deep seated belief that the PS2 hype was a major factor in the early demise of the DC.

In the past, there have only been two successful consoles. If X-Box only manages to build the third largest base, Microsoft may decide to keep pouring money into it, to keep it alive, or they may abandon it. But even if they do, the third party support will probably be limited to ports.

As far as PS2 supply shortage, well, yeah, of course there was. But they supplied 200,000 more units on launch day than Microsoft did. There was no supply shortage of X-Box units because there was less demand for them. Unless a company just saturates the market with product, when you can walk into a store after work and buy a system on its launch day, it's probably not a good sign.