Man, as much as I was irritated because of Mike, I feel bad for him. That looked so painful.

Merger:
This is where it will get interesting. The shift now goes to voting off your stronger adversaries. Since the one old guy made it to the merge, he might be looking good now. Having each club go in with 5 is good for the show. I think everyone knows that the strategy is to have the tribe with more members pick off the smaller tribe one by one. But now they can't.

I think Ogakor has to, and will, put aside differences because of the merger. The one thing that this show has shown us over and over, is that most people put aside pet peeves and personality when it comes to what they perceive they have to do to win. $1mil can make people ignore small details, specially after the merger.

So, unless theya re totally stupid, each tribe will pick a person from the other tribe to vote off. It should end in a tie. How do they handle that? I forget.

Run-off vote. Neither of the people who were tied can vote. Then the remaining people for one of the tied people. Of course, if pattern follows, that would result in another 4-4 tie. Then it goes to whoever received more votes in previous tribal council votes.

Here's how it happened:



Not that I would wish that on ANYONE, but if SOMEONE had to have that happen to them, I'd choose Jerri.

I don't think the votes from the individual tribes matters any more. Wasn't there a time after the merger in S1 where there was a tie and Jeff sai "one of you has to switch sometime, or we'll be here all night"?

RIGHT. The previous councils don't matter at this point.
As in S1 "we can be here all NIGHT guys!". And somebody switched the vote immediately.

So I think Ogakor is in trouble with this scenario, because they have "weaker" bonds you would think with all the prior tension. So with Jerri always up to know good I think she should get with Kucha, (Jeff and Alicia specifically) and agree to vote with Kucha against someone like Keith.
And in return talk Jeff and Alicia into keeping her untill the end because with the following scenario they would need her: So Kucha plus Jerri continue to pick off the rest of Ogakor. She should realize that there are two strong bonds in Kucha right now of two people each (Roger and Liz) and (Jeff and Alicia) (I don't know where Nick stands right now). And what both of those two mini-groups have to realize is that they either have to fight for Nick's vote (assuming he isn't in one already) or some of Ogakor's votes. Because if they just pick off the whole Ogakor tribe then there will be trouble when it gets to their mini-group Tribal Councils. There are so many possible scenarios. You always want to have the numbers for the advantage, but also can't let it backfire on you. And you need a good face, in order to win the final VOTE for the million. Roger and Liz could also be wild cards when it comes to this game also. They have their "mini-alliance" friendship going but at the same time are more likely than the others to have a "change of heart" and vote their concious sometime or another.

I think Mike had a GREAT advantage untill last night! He was "playing the game". I also think Jeff is a thinker and trying to "play the game" correctly. I think Nick is just the Gervase of S2 and going with the flow which can't last forever. Right now Jeff has an advantage in his line of thinking if he can put it together. However it "could" backfire to early before it gets started if he is "found out" first. Almost as Rich was almost voted out early on.

On the other side I think Keith and Colby should join forces and "include" Tina for the ride. And try and get Roger and Elizabeth to "switch over". Then basically tell Jerri annd Amber that they got them to "switch over" and use those seven for the first vote off of Jeff or Nick or Alicia. Then after that immediately turn on Jerri or Amber!
Since I'm sure nobody wants those two annoying things around! Keith and Colby could pull that off with the "nice guy" approach with Roger and Elizabeth. Maybe Keith can find some creative ways to "cook" the chicken feed!

See there are many scenarios. And it is smart to pick off the tribe one at a time, BUT they have to realize "if" they do that then it would be eventually the 5 of them and so they have to see that 2 of them have the disadvantage! And more than likely those "2" already know who they are, and should break from those earlier on and get rid of "the leader" and show who is really incharge by getting some from the "other side" but not too many that could turn on them!

See last year Rich had the numbers PERFECTLY. He had the SOLID 4 with NONE of them really knowing who would be the final 3 (it would have been different if Kelly didn't have immunity!). With Kucha you have 5, BUT then two sub groups of two, or maybe one of them having Nick for the 3rd person. There isn't a group of 4. So one of the groups of 2 should strive to get some extra help from the "outside" before it's too late. That's assuming Kucha takes it to the end.
Ogakor is a different story. Who the hell knows what can happen over there!

I love over-analyzing this stuff (as with the MOLE). Should be an interesting few weeks ahead of us.

There was a tie once last time after the merger, but it was immediately broken in the run-off. In the Final 4, Rich and Rudy voted Susan off while Kelly and Susan voted Rich off. Then they had a runoff and Kelly and Rudy voted off Susan.

Wow briank, good job!! :thumbsup:

Have you, or are you, going to try out for this?

Off topic:

Is there betting on Survivor in Las Vegas?

Hey have you guys read the news over at Daily Variety wire.....

concerning next weeks episode...don't read if you don't want to know



Very interesting?

I have heard this. Some people thought this was going to happen last week and that was "THE INJURY". I didn't know it was already for this upcoming episode though. Should be "interesting".

Yeah right! -rolleyes-

I think there is. I remember when the first season was going Rudy was the favorite.

-rolleyes- The slaughter of a pig on Survivor: The Australian Outback was condemned as gratuitous and cruel by animal rights groups, but Michael Skupin says the killing was humane. -rolleyes-

http://www.foxnews.com/foxlife/030601/survivor.sml

No way. No sportsbook in Las Vegas would put up lines on something where the outcome was determined months ago. The likelihood of fraud would be too great. Now you might see gambling websites with posted odds, but those are simply for entertainment purposes only.

Time for predictions...who gets voted off tonight.

Jerri seems to be "favorite" to get booted but my guess is Colby. He is the biggest threat to the Kuchas because of his good-natured attitude and athleticism (which would help in future immunity challenges). Once they get him off, then they can pick the rest of the Ogakors off one-by-one. The real interesting question tonight will be if the 5 Ogakors can bond and protect themselves by all voting for 1 of the Kuchas and forcing a 5-5 tie.

I think Colby is a pretty good guess.

Once the tribes merge, the strongest member of the weakest tribe should, strategically, be the one who's booted. Just like last time, if memory serves.

I don't think it will be like last time. People, however, may want to keep Jerri around. Having someone irritating at the end can be good for the other person. I would love to see her get booted though.

The interesting thing will be who gets a member booted, the old ogakor or kucha. If Kucha loses a member, this whole game changed on Michael's accident to the detriment of his entire 'tribe'.

Due to her strong personality and the quick change in the composition of the final 10, I think Alicia will get the boot.

Boy, do fans hate Jerri or what:

http://survivor.cbs.com/primetime/su...results06.html

Rumor at survivorsucks has Alicia winning the IC. There was a clip on today of her jumping with excitment or something like that.

How could they not vote for . Now the show is going to be stuck with the screaming moron girls...

[Edited by cry havoc on 03-08-01 at 06:15 PM]

[Edited by Patman on 03-09-01 at 02:44 AM]

[Edited by zuffy on 03-08-01 at 07:42 PM]

SPOILER

Hey Patman, do all of our sub-posts under you count as YOUR POST and add to your post total?
What kind of "alliance" is this?!?!?!