Why 3-D television will flop
In a fleeting craze, media and tech companies are leaping before they look.
Posted by Minyanville on Wednesday, January 6, 2010 12:56 PM
This article was written by Minyanville's Mike Schuster

"Hey, Paul, glad you can make it. Pumped for the game? Yeah, us, too. Hey, did you bring your 3-D glasses? No? Ah, well, we don't have any extras. Listen, do you mind just manning the snacks and drinks for the next three hours? Appreciate it, Paulie."

Expect to hear many variants of that conversation starting in June and lasting until corporate execs come to their senses.

Fueled by hit films like Avatar and Up, interest in 3-D has hit a fever pitch -- some would argue its zenith -- and both cable networks and electronics manufacturers are taking notice. Their conceit: If it works in the theaters, why not in the living room? And that inherently flawed notion is leading companies to sink billions into a trend that won't last long.

The foremost name in televised sports, ESPN (DIS), announced it will kick off the ESPN 3-D network on June 11 with a dynamic showcase of the World Cup soccer match -- effectively breaking ground as the first completely 3-D television network. Time Warner Cable (TWC) and Comcast (CMCSA) have had preliminary talks over broadcast rights.

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Kinks in the network, however, already seem apparent. Firmly dedicated to the no-rerun schedule, ESPN 3-D will go dark when there aren't any 3-D games to broadcast. So unless it expands way beyond the 85 live sporting events planned for the year, there often won't be any dimension to enjoy -- much less three.

Speaking with USA Today, Chuck Pagano, ESPN's executive vice president for technology, compared the 3-D transition to the shift toward HD. "We don't have all the answers," he admitted. "We asked the same questions back in the HD days. Is this going to be better? Is this going to be worse?"

Hate to break it to you, Chuck, but no one was worried about sharper image quality catching on with the public.

Following not too far behind ESPN's gamble is a joint venture among Discovery Communications (DISCA), Sony (SNE) and IMAX (IMAX). At its launch next year, the nameless network will only air in the U.S. and -- according to the joint press release -- will hopefully boost "consumer adoption of 3-D televisions."

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And therein lie the catalyst and the downfall to the 3-D TV initiative.

Three-D TV will require brand new television sets and related equipment, which companies like LG Electronics, Panasonic (PC) and Toshiba were eager to show off this week at the Consumer Electronics Show. Special 3-D goggles are required for each viewer, unless the set has Auto Stereo Display -- which then only works if everyone is situated directly in front of the set at a specific distance. Otherwise, it's a blur. Your best bet: Shell out for a pair for each family member and expected guests.

The cost of all this equipment could run into the thousands, preventing a surge of early adopters still too strapped to even buy a regular HDTV or wise enough to wait until the technology catches on -- if it ever does. And skimping on a 15-inch screen won't cut it: For 3-D to be effective, it needs to be huge -- which is why the technology is best seen in a movie theater, as it has been for decades.

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And what about new content? Three-D technology is costlier than even HD programming, boosting production costs much higher. And although Pixar's earlier Toy Story titles were overhauled to feature 3-D, the process is incredibly labor-intensive and, again, very costly -- even for a CGI movie. Going through a studio's back catalog and revamping the footage to meet 3-D standards is a headache not many studios or editors want to endure. Plus, is there much of a demand to watch Scrubs or Hitch with an extra visual depth?

Speaking of headaches: 3-D is an eye-straining struggle for many. As crowds exit a theater showing a 3-D feature, there will inevitably be pockets of audience members voicing the pain and vertigo that only constantly refocusing your eyes for more than two hours could produce. Are people willing to undergo that barrage of images for an entire evening of TV?

Understandably, studios and electronics manufacturers are excited over the possibility of a new gimmick to fill theater seats and keep couch potatoes paying for cable. But they fail to realize that the cost will far outweigh the charm and, maybe, 3-D is only a once-in-a-while treat. You know why nobody rides a roller coaster to work? Because not only would it lose its appeal after the first week, it's completely impractical.

The world is about to witness the rebirth of Nintendo's Virtual Boy debacle -- only on an epic scale worthy of James Cameron.

A recent survey conducted by Quixel Research found that while consumer interest in 3D Blu-ray discs and DVDs was high, what they really wanted was 3D from their cable provider.

The survey took answers from a thousand current HDTV owners. Those taking it were asked about the quantity and quality of their experiences with 3D technology, as well as a few forward looking questions about the delivery of the technology.

According to the survey, customers don’t mind shelling out for a new TV, but they’d prefer not to have to buy discs. “Consumers are very familiar with recent 3D technology” said Tamaryn Pratt, Quixel research principal. “Consumers not only prefer to receive 3D content from their cable or satellite provider, but they are willing to pay more for a 3D movie channel.”

The survey also revealed some interesting, if vague revelations as to what the future looks like to the general public. A third of those that were surveyed expect 3D TV in the next 12 months. They don’t mind the glasses though, according to Pratt. “Those who have seen a 3D movie in the 12 months are interested in owning a 3D TV even if it requires glasses,” she reports.

The survey also questioned what consumers' most trusted brands for delivery of 3D content were, and there aren’t a lot of surprises. The top three were Comcast, Samsung, and Sony.

Technology that no one asked for.