Bravo!!! Bravo Dan! Nicely played.

Gotta say, I am really enjoying this season.

, wtf? That was pretty awesome.

Rerun looks really stupid now. Good, IMO.

I dunno. I generally like Dan, but the deal with Ollie was a completely boneheaded move from the start. Once the deal was made, if he was going to break it he should have gone ahead and broken it with his initial nominations instead of giving his alliance reason to doubt him, even if he did protect them in the end. Either way, he was going to piss off Ollie and Michelle. He gained nothing by delaying it, but he did lose some credibility with Memphis/Keesha/Renny.

And the whole "replacement roulette" game at the veto ceremony was just so much hand-waving to try to deflect attention from some really idiotic gameplay on his part. I'm not sure it worked--I think everyone saw through that ploy, even though they played along.

It does make for a more entertaining show, though.

It was nice to finally see that someone is going to get backdoored this season, should make for a fun thursday night. But Dan's deal with Ollie was pretty boneheaded, and his "playing weak" act is getting pretty old. I am rooting for Renny and Keesha at this point for the final two.

Why did he tell Renny and Keesha what people were going to say? It would have been a bigger shock if he got Ollie to say "Renny" without her expecting it.

I think Dan by far is the better player. From watching both the BB after dark and the main show, he definitely is coming out ahead.

Hilarious episode, but there's a very good chance that Dan will be going to the jury house with Michelle on Thursday.

I think the double eviction format helps him. In those situations, people don't have time to negotiate or think, so they usually do the safe thing. In the case that Memphis, Renny, or Keesha get HoH, the safe thing is to vote out Jerry or Ollie and continue to ride the power alliance.

Obviously, Jerry and Ollie will be gunning for Dan, but still, if one wins HoH, it'll likely be Dan and Memphis, and in that case, Renny votes Memphis out, Jerry/Ollie votes Dan out, and Keesha is the swing, so there's maybe a 60% change Dan goes in that case.

So Dan ends up with a 2/5 probability of the HoH nominating him, a 4/5 probability of not winning HoH, and a 3/5 chance of being voted out if he's on the block. That's a 0.192 probability of leaving, which is not much more than the 0.167 probability of leaving by chance.

Actually, I looked at every permutation of HoH / Veto / Nominees and I came up with this:

Jerry - 10% chance of leaving
Ollie - 50% chance of leaving
Keesha - 1.3% chance of leaving
Renny - 1.3% chance of leaving
Memphis - 16% chance of leaving
Dan - 21.3% chance of leaving

Isn't Dan's probability of winning HOH 0%, as outgoing HOH?

Of course, that's exactly how I'd play the game. If I wanted Michele out, for instance, I run the numbers for Keesha, for instance, like above without Michele and withut Jerry. Then I'd show her that she has a higher chance of staying next week (actually, I'd probably do "staying next week" until there were 6 or 7 left, then I'd do "winning the game") if Michele is voted out.

Yes. That doesn't mean he's going home, though. He has a 100% chance of staying if he's not on the block.

matta = most boring BB contestant ever

Yeah, but I think it would work. As long as you strategically lost competitions like Eric / Dan, and approached people in such a way as to make it look like you're not talking down to them.

Hey West Coast viewers, was the Big Brother's telecast last night delayed by 20 minutes?

Because when I watched it on the dvr this morning, the previous show didn't end until 20 minutes into my recording.

I had to watch the last part on CBS.com this morning.

Just curious.

Chris

Yes, due to Clinton's speech at the DNC.

It actually delayed everything on the West Coast?

Thankfully it was easy to find and watch on CBS.com this morning.

Chris

I still think Dan is a total idiot. This move just doesn't make him look good. He's been trying to repair his image after the whole Jessie debacle, but now it's completely shattered. You can't make up any silly excuse now. You obviously were the one who broke your word this time, no two ways about it. And the roulette thing was just stupid. And by forcing everyone to play, even though some obviously did not want to, you just make everyone feel pissed and uncomfortable. Renny certainly didn't look too happy. And what did it really accomplish? Nothing. Everyone knew what the division in the house is. It seems like Dan just loves the grandstanding and thinks that he's this really inspirational guy. But I still think he's an idiot and the epitome of every bad sports movie cliche there is.

Glad to read the comments on here. I was thinking maybe it was only me who was a bit tired of Dan and his antics.

I can see him not doing the deal, but don't try to act like it was his plan when he made the deal. I really think he all intentions of holding up his end until he started really thinking. It wasn't some big master stroke, he simply didn't uphold the deal he had planned.

I think Jerry/Olli are hosed with the double elimination. I think either or both could wave Keisha/Renny to go after Dan for his antics given time, but not the short turn around in a double eliminatino so one of those two are out unless Jerry/Olli hold HOH and make sure neither is nominated...

I still Jerry has a real shot to win this thing and hope he does assuming he makes the final 5. At that point I think he could be the 3rd in the Dan/Memphis or 3rd in the Keisha/Renny. Either case I think he can then be the one at the end for various reasons.

But it worked. Sure he went back on his word, but that's not the worst thing that's happened in the house. Plus, he pissed off Ollie enough to force Ollie to go nuts, break furniture, threaten other house guests, and pretty much assure that Ollie is now everyone's #1 target.

That roulette game would have worked in theory, if he knew Ollie would say "Renny" and Michelle would say "Keesha" and didn't tell Renny or Keesha before hand. But when he went to Renny and said "say Ollie's name", that makes it look like he orchestrated the whole thing and eliminated any validity the game had.

But Ollie pretty much already was everyone's No. 1 target. Yes, he pissed off Ollie, but he also revealed himself to be the Judas that Jerry accused him of being. I realize it's gameplay blah, blah, blah, but the people in there are taking it very seriously. Dan thinks he can have it both ways: lie but still be viewed as the good Catholic boy. Now, I don't see how anyone could believe that for a second. And by orchestrating the veto ceremony "game," he tipped his hand again. If there was any doubt that he was really a player and not the weak innocent person he portrayed, there can't be any now. It's like he showed the puppets the strings above their heads. How could that be a smart thing to do?

The problem with playing "Judas" at this point in the game is that Dan is losing jury votes should he make it to the end. It was a shit deal, because no matter what he does, he's going to stab someone in the back. He either breaks his deal with Ollie, or screws over his own alliance.

Now, he's probably lost Michelle and Ollie no matter what; and April will probably vote with Ollie. You'd have to be insane to not want to make it to the jury vote with him.

I still don't understand what Dan's game was supposed to accomplish. Each person picked some one else they'd vote to put up for nomination. How did he come to the conclusion Michelle was to go up (aside from the obvious fact that he wanted Michelle on the block--what I'm wondering is how this game/charade made it seem like he was somewhat innocent or was doing the will of the house or something).

That part lost me.

Anyone find it weird that Ollie has been able to stay off the chopping block? Is there a deal between him and Rennie.

Maybe or maybe not. Shows like Survivor and BB have taught me that the losers are almost always ridiculously bitter for simply having been outplayed, but they do seem to be unpredicatable as to whether they reward the person that is considered to have been the villain (Judas) or reward that person for having played the game, taken risks, and not ridden coat-tails.

This looks like a particulary bitter and stupid group, BB juries usually are, so Dan could be in real trouble. But they could also get together and say, "Dan screwed us, yes, but no one else played the game better or more pro-actively, so he deserves to win." I mean, do you think April wants to vote for Keesha any more than Dan?

I still think you usually never know who it's better to bring with you to the final. The jury may hate the player you bring, but they may also think the player they hate deserves to win more than "you".

That's exactly what I was thinking as well. There was just no reason for his little game. And any meaning was taken away from it when he basically gave people lines, making it more like a play than a real game.

I think it was just Dan wanting to grandstand and be the center of attention. Any chance of still flying under the radar is gone, though.