Which new show will be the first to get cancelled? (Fall 2006 edition)
 

List of new fall shows (in order of premiere date):

VANISHED (FOX)
CELEBRITY DUETS (FOX)
JUSTICE (FOX)
STANDOFF (FOX)
'TIL DEATH (FOX)
HAPPY HOUR (FOX)
MEN IN TREES (ABC)
CLASS, THE (CBS)
STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP (NBC)
SMITH (CBS)
JERICHO (CBS)
KIDNAPPED (NBC)
SHARK (CBS)
SIX DEGREES (ABC)
BROTHERS & SISTERS (ABC)
HEROES (NBC)
RUNAWAY (The CW)
HELP ME HELP YOU (ABC)
UGLY BETTY (ABC)
GAME, THE (The CW)
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (NBC)
20 GOOD YEARS (NBC)
NINE, THE (ABC)
30 ROCK (NBC)
KNIGHTS OF PROSPERITY, THE (ABC)
DAY BREAK (ABC)

Discuss.

there are way too many serials which requires time commitment. I will say that Fox will be the network with the quick trigger. The previews for Vanished and Standoff look bad. Vanished did ok in its premiere so I will say that Standoff will not keep enough of the House leadin and will be cancelled first.

I'd go with Standoff if it didn't have House leading into it.

I'll say Ugly Betty

It might not be the first to get cancelled, and I really like John Lithgow, but the previews for 20 Good Years look HORRIBLE.

Of the shows I've seen previews/trailers for, The Nine looks to be the best of the lot.

Friday Night Lights - I have no idea how this would work as a television series. You can't have the team go from "underdog" to winning the "big game" every week.

I'm going with Celebrity Duets. the show sounds awful and it's on Fox, the network with the quickest trigger.

The cynic in me wants to predict Heroes. this is the only new show I'm planning to watch (Strike 1!) and if it turns out to be good (Strike 2!), the third strike will be inevitable.

I'll take Damfino's point a step farther: the first show to get canceled will be the one I like the most. :(

20 GOOD YEARS, but since there are other shows that start before it, it mightn't be the first just because of timing. There will be no way it will last the season.

'Til Death apparently had some journalists refer to it as 'Til November at Up Fronts based on how lousy it was.

I guess I am in the minority since I think that Celebrity Duets is going to be a hit.

Happy Hour... it made me unhappy for half an hour.

You're not. I think it will be a huge hit.

Celebrity Duets will do just fine. The gas hasn't run out on the whole "______ with Celebrities" sub-genre (yet).

I imagine its going to be about a small town that is defined by a competitive football team and probably heavily based on what football means to the players and their life in school and future. More than being focused on the underdog winning the big game.

I, however doubt they will pull off a series that can last more than a season based off that. I think they could do one series to represent one season chasing the championship and then nobody will really care.

hmmm...i saw yesterday on the emmy broadcast on E! that kristen v., their tv reporter, had that show as one of the top 5 of the fall season. so, i am not too sure that's a good option?
i am not sure how well Til Death will do up against Survivor & Earl which are both well-established & Betty which has gotten pretty good reviews so far...so that's my pick.

I doubt that both of the two NBC "behind the scenes of a comedy" shows (30 Rock and Studio 60) will survive. I have no idea which one will go, though.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

movie tv shows usually dont survive

Men in Trees

Men in Trees

I'm rooting for Friday Night Lights, since one of the stars is the son of the guy in the office next to mine.

I would tend to agree with sb5 on 30 Rock and Studio 60 but for the fact that both shows are getting very strong buzz. But if one of them -- in particular, 30 Rock -- underperforms, they may yank it to avoid confusion with the other one.

Did you just forget to put a smilie or rolls-eyes emoticon on the end there, or were you serious about which will get canned first........?

Which is exactly what the real-life scenario was. Odessa Permian was never a football underdog (at least at the time when the book was written, etc..)

I saw a game at Ratliff Stadium, when my high school played Permian out there in the state playoffs. The whole town shuts down each Saturday and converges on that place. And there's NOTHING out there except for this football stadium.

You can start to appreciate the pressure these kids face when you see how much it means to the town.

My Name Is Earl

No wait ...

I am going to make a tough call and say ... Heroes. I will watch it, but I get the feeling it's niche demo, slow pace and NBC, will spell an early demise.

That didn't exactly hurt Surface last year... it made it through the season.

Not optimistic on this year's crop:

A dogfight, but one of these will be the first to go, likely in this order:
HAPPY HOUR (FOX)
STANDOFF (FOX)
JUSTICE (FOX)

Won't make it to mid-season:
'TIL DEATH (FOX)
KNIGHTS OF PROSPERITY, THE (ABC)
RUNAWAY (The CW)
GAME, THE (The CW)
MEN IN TREES (ABC)

Network may not give up quickly, but it's a lost cause:
30 ROCK (NBC)
20 GOOD YEARS (NBC)
UGLY BETTY (ABC)
HELP ME HELP YOU (ABC)
KIDNAPPED (NBC)
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (NBC)
SMITH (CBS) <-- Tough time-slot
JERICHO (CBS) <-- CBS has trouble attracting a 'sci-fi'-ish Nelisen's

No clear read on these yet:
NINE, THE (ABC)
SIX DEGREES (ABC)
HEROES (NBC)
SHARK (CBS) <-- Could be another Dr. Vegas, could be the CBS demographic

Likely to survive:
CELEBRITY DUETS (FOX) <-- Will do well enough for Fox
THE CLASS (CBS) <-- Cushy time-slot
BROTHERS & SISTERS (ABC) <-- Cushy time-slot
STUDIO 60 ON THE SUNSET STRIP (NBC) <-- This may be the Joey-effect; NBC has so much invested, they'll give it a second season regardless

Isn't this just a temp series anyway (Lost's downtime):
DAY BREAK (ABC)

For the Most part you pretty much read my mind on my thoughts as well, except I predict a better fate with JERICHO and UGLY BETTY, because of the amount of hype surroudning them and the quality of the pilots; also I'm iffy if BROTEHRS AND SISTERS will make it to season two because it looks extrememly hit-or-miss, even having DH as a lead in.

In the Case of the CW I think its hard to predict which shows will survive vs. which ones won't basically because of a lack of alternatives with their programming... the CW only has 1 comedy and 1 drama slated for midseason which typically means that only one drama and one comedy will be dropped after christmas. In the comedies either THE GAME or ALL OF US will probably go as CHRIS & GIRLFRIENDS where very highly rated on UPN. With Dramas it will either be RUNAWAY, 7TH HEAVEN, or ONE TREE HILL to bite the dust - and personally I think it will be 7TH HEAVEN... Although I hope that CW will realize that having SMACKDOWN on their schedule will always hinder them from becoming a major player, because people just won't take it seriously...

Oh and I have to throw this in: Personally I belive that ABC made a huge mistake with their friday night schedule moving UGLY BETTY to Thursdays and leaving MEN IN TREES with no lead in. With the two together they made up a very friendly doublefeature that could have survived 3/4 uneventful years (kina like ONCE AND AGAIN and ED), with the only LAS VEGAS (a good show, but totally different demo) and SMACKDOWN as their competition. But now with UGLY BETTY in the second most competitive timeslot and MEN IN TREES without a leadin, I doubt they'll make it past episode 18.

I'm wondering how they're going to keep me interested in football in March.
Most HS teams are done w/ Football by Thanksgiving or soon after.
I'm a huge fan of Kyle Chandler's and I really want this one to work... but I don't know.
I've seen the pilot and if it weren't for KC I probably wouldn't watch it again. I really hope they do enough to keep our interest.

I'm going with:

1)Vanished - since it got a head start
2)Justice - for offering nothing new
3)Standoff - dumb idea for a series

and just about every new ABC comedy

Yup, I would've watched Ugly Betty on Friday's, but now there's no way I can fit it in in that murderous timeslot. Up against Smallville, Survivor, Earl/Office (and the OC?)? Yikes.

I agree with this. Fox starts their season so early and they are usually pretty quick to pull the trigger on a show after a few airings. I am sure at least one of these will be gone by the time baseball starts.

I would also say Runaway on the CW but they don't have much else lined waiting in the wings to replace it until January at least.

Give me UGLY BETTY. I'm openly rooting for it to take the Coupling path.

It's pretty good for counter-programming to women, though. Plus Ugly Betty will be on right before Grey's Anatomy so perhaps some of that audience will tune in early and catch it.

I will have all my dual-tuner Tivo's working full speed that night, though.

Hopefully, all of them.

I agree but look at all the people who like shows like 2 and a half men and According to Jim.

I agree and I thought it was a strange show for NBC to pick this show up though Lithgow was great on 3rd Rock. This show is about two middle-aged friends who want to live life to the fullest. I don't know if that is the demographics NBC hopes to attract. If the ratings aren't there, the demos won't save it as I think it will definitely skew older.

I haven't even heard of half of these. I'm going to have to go read some descriptions before I make my vote. But right now 20 Good Years is a strong contender, for the exact reasons chowderhead listed.

As for Friday Night Lights, I think it looks interesting. The focus could really be about the school, and students and the football is just something to move the show along. It will probably be close to real time, each week giving way to one game of the year. Not sure how it would last to May or even a second season though.

I disagree with everyone on Justice - I think it's going to end up being a surprise hit. People love the L&O type shows but are somewhat bored with the formula. This gives that formula a bit of a jolt, and adds in some of what made "Runaway Jury" a fun read.

Plus you get to see Jack Bristow crack some skulls. What, no? No cracking skulls for Jack in Justice?

ugly betty is getting rave reviews so i think if anything it might fall the arrested development fate... especially on thursday night time slot

Might be partly to keep Tom Werner happy, for future consideration. Any show can tank, so all other things being equal, I can see going with the guy with the track record who's capable of cranking out another Cosby Show/Roseanne at any time

FWIW, Werner's dream casting was Lithgow and Danny Divito.......

Have to agree.

Not a single thing I've heard about any of these shows makes me the least bit interested in watching any of them.

This is what I was thinking. It will be more of a teen soap opera like Dawson's Creek or The OC with enough football thrown in to justify using the name.

I think 20 Good Years will be the first to go.