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Interesting BCS Scenario

Old 11-19-06, 02:19 PM
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Interesting BCS Scenario

The way things are set up now it will be interesting to see what happens with Notre Dame.

Say they beat USC next week

Will they end up ranked higher than Michigan who destroyed them earlier in the year? If so it would definitely prove that theory of losing early being a lot better than losing late.
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Old 11-21-06, 03:47 AM
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Michigan is #2
USC is #3
Florida is #4
Notre Dame is #5

If Notre Dame beats USC, the best the Irish could hope for is to take USC's #3 spot.

But it's more likely that if #5 Notre Dame wins, and #4 Florida wins (a game against Florida State that it should win), Florida will move up to #3, and Notre Dame would become #4.

Or if Notre Dame beats USC in a squeaker, and Florida somehow manages to lose to Florida State, and #6 Arkansas beats the hell out of #10 LSU, Arkansas could leap frog them all into the #3 spot.

But Michigan with its season complete can only lose its #2 spot to USC, and if USC finishes 11-1, it will be ranked #2 and play TOSU for the National Champoinship.
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Old 11-21-06, 10:52 AM
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I couldn't care less in general about who plays who, but why is ND getting no love? They got squashed, but by the #2 team in the country 2 months ago. If they beat USC, who seems to be the overwhelming pick for #2, why are they getting skipped by everybody else? I just don't get it, this seems like the first instance I've ever seen where the name Notre Dame is actually hurting them. I think that Michigan should play OSU again, there's no question in my mind those are the 2 best teams in football, but I just don't get why ND can't possibly do enough to get to #2.
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Old 11-21-06, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by bravesmg
I couldn't care less in general about who plays who, but why is ND getting no love? They got squashed, but by the #2 team in the country 2 months ago. If they beat USC, who seems to be the overwhelming pick for #2, why are they getting skipped by everybody else? I just don't get it, this seems like the first instance I've ever seen where the name Notre Dame is actually hurting them. I think that Michigan should play OSU again, there's no question in my mind those are the 2 best teams in football, but I just don't get why ND can't possibly do enough to get to #2.
There SOS is pretty low. Michigan and GT are the only two decent teams they've played thus far, and they got killed by one and squeaked by the other.
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Old 11-21-06, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by bravesmg
I couldn't care less in general about who plays who, but why is ND getting no love? They got squashed, but by the #2 team in the country 2 months ago. If they beat USC, who seems to be the overwhelming pick for #2, why are they getting skipped by everybody else? I just don't get it...

Maybe because most people remember that game vs. Michigan St.
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Old 11-21-06, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Count Dooku
But Michigan with its season complete can only lose its #2 spot to USC, and if USC finishes 11-1, it will be ranked #2 and play TOSU for the National Champoinship.
It looks to me like a Florida win over FSU and Arkansas could get them into the title game if Arkansas beats LSU and has a high ranking and USC loses.
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Old 11-21-06, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by bravesmg
I couldn't care less in general about who plays who, but why is ND getting no love? They got squashed, but by the #2 team in the country 2 months ago. If they beat USC, who seems to be the overwhelming pick for #2, why are they getting skipped by everybody else? I just don't get it, this seems like the first instance I've ever seen where the name Notre Dame is actually hurting them. I think that Michigan should play OSU again, there's no question in my mind those are the 2 best teams in football, but I just don't get why ND can't possibly do enough to get to #2.
I wouldn't say that USC is the overwhelming pick for #2. I think a lot of people want to see USC play Ohio St. for the championship rather than Michigan. However, I don't think a lot of those people really think USC is overwhelmingly better than Michigan. Many might not think USC is better at all.

I'd also point out that the BCS's job is to pick the two teams with the best seasons. I'm not sure how you construct an argument that Notre Dame has had a better season than Michigan. Michigan lost to the consensus top team by 3 on the road and destroyed Notre Dame at South Bend. Notre Dame has played too weak a schedule with no really big wins. Even by beating USC, Notre Dame's portfolio doesn't stack up to Michigan's.
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Old 11-21-06, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Jericho
I wouldn't say that USC is the overwhelming pick for #2. I think a lot of people want to see USC play Ohio St. for the championship rather than Michigan. However, I don't think a lot of those people really think USC is overwhelmingly better than Michigan. Many might not think USC is better at all.
Exactly. The debate isn't really who is the #2 team in the country. To be honest, there can be no real argument about that (I'll listen to USC, but Florida or Arkansas? Pffft. As Herbstreit said: "Michigan would beat Florida and Arkansas soundly"). The debate is really only whether there should be a rematch or should it be #1 vs. the best team not to have played them already.
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Old 11-21-06, 01:23 PM
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I especially love how there's a possibility that OSU could beat Michigan the first time, then a month and a half later lose their next game to Michigan and have the world definitively say that Michigan is the national champion, despite splitting two games with them.
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Old 11-21-06, 01:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Jericho
I wouldn't say that USC is the overwhelming pick for #2. I think a lot of people want to see USC play Ohio St. for the championship rather than Michigan. However, I don't think a lot of those people really think USC is overwhelmingly better than Michigan. Many might not think USC is better at all.

I'd also point out that the BCS's job is to pick the two teams with the best seasons. I'm not sure how you construct an argument that Notre Dame has had a better season than Michigan. Michigan lost to the consensus top team by 3 on the road and destroyed Notre Dame at South Bend. Notre Dame has played too weak a schedule with no really big wins. Even by beating USC, Notre Dame's portfolio doesn't stack up to Michigan's.
Good points. I should rephrase saying that it's almost assumed in everything I've heard from the talking heads that USC is going over ND. And I don't want to construct an argument against Michigan, I think they should be slotted in for a rematch right now.

I couldn't argue ND against Michigan, but I don't understand how we're making comparisons here. Ok, I'll step out on a small limb and say that if USC beats ND, then they're going to be in the championship game. But if ND beats USC, the #3 team in the country on the last game of the regular season, I don't understand why that doesn't at least make them #3, and in all likelyhood I think they should be #2. It seems like we are taking style points into too much of a factor for me. Yes, NDs wins haven't been spectacular, but they've only dropped 1 game and to the #2 team. USC squeaked by just as many as ND (I think, don't quote me on that but I think it's comparable), and their loss was to a TERRIBLE team. I don't know why they're not getting trashed for that loss much more than they are.

But if ND wins against USC it doesn't seem like they're getting true credit for beating a #3 team. If it was Florida or Arkansas playing USC, and they beat USC, it sounds like it would be a no brainer that they would get the #2 slot. Either ND is FAR, FAR too high in the rankings at #5, or the rankings don't mean squat. If the polls are just slotting them in there because of their record, knowing full well that there's nothing they could do to jump Michigan, or even Florida or Arkansas, it just makes this whole BCS deal even more of a mess than it is already.

Last edited by bravesmg; 11-21-06 at 01:30 PM.
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Old 11-21-06, 02:08 PM
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I'm in that group that says if you aren't good enough to win your own conference, then you shouldn't be able to play for the National Championship. So I'm gonna say Florida or USC if they win out. And I'm not expecting Notre Dame to win at USC.
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Old 11-21-06, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by El Scorcho
I especially love how there's a possibility that OSU could beat Michigan the first time, then a month and a half later lose their next game to Michigan and have the world definitively say that Michigan is the national champion, despite splitting two games with them.
Tell that to FSU in 1996 (which lost a national title to Florida, which it previously defeated) or Nebraksa in 1978 (which lost a national title when it lost to Oklahoma, a team it previously defeated). Or realistically, tell that to any team that beats a team in the regular season, but loses in the postseason (and the BCS championship is essentially a one game playoff). It's not that rare really.
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Old 11-21-06, 02:32 PM
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I know it's not that rare, I just think it's humorous that the powers that be let this kind of crap continue.
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Old 11-21-06, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
I'm in that group that says if you aren't good enough to win your own conference, then you shouldn't be able to play for the National Championship. So I'm gonna say Florida or USC if they win out. And I'm not expecting Notre Dame to win at USC.
Here's my problem with your logic. One, the Big 10 can have two undefeated teams in a given year (in fact Wisconsin came close, losing only to Michigan). If Wisconsin had hypothetically gone undefeated, wouldn't you want them to play Ohio St. instead of a one loss team? Second, Notre Dame isn't in a conference. Which either means they're ineligible or that they have an advantage over everyone else (i.e. aren't forced to win a conference including additional conference championship game).
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Old 11-21-06, 02:36 PM
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I'd also point out that the BCS's job is to pick the two teams with the best seasons. I'm not sure how you construct an argument that Notre Dame has had a better season than Michigan. Michigan lost to the consensus top team by 3 on the road and destroyed Notre Dame at South Bend. Notre Dame has played too weak a schedule with no really big wins. Even by beating USC, Notre Dame's portfolio doesn't stack up to Michigan's.
I agree with you in principle, but the two things I'll add to this:

1) Ohio State was more than 3 points better than Michigan. The bogus PI added 8 meaningless points, and then there's the two bad snaps, which accounted for at minimum a 10-point swing. Not that I think any team in the nation could have done better, but I think it's important to remember that Ohio State beat them convincingly, even if the final score looked close.

2) Beating USC in the Colisseum will be a very impressive accomplishment. No one does that. In the last 5 seasons (yes, 5 seasons), these are USC's losses: dropped pass at K-State, missed extra point/missed field goal OT loss at WSU, triple-OT loss at Cal, 4th down miracle against Texas in the Rose Bowl shootout, missed 2-point conversion at OSU. That's insane, and it's all on the road. If Notre Dame pulls off the miracle of all miracles, it likely doesn't exclipse Michigan's season, but it will be very, very impressive and IMO far more impressive than Michigan beating ND in South Bend. (Which is why it won't happen )

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Old 11-21-06, 02:43 PM
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Exactly. The debate isn't really who is the #2 team in the country. To be honest, there can be no real argument about that (I'll listen to USC, but Florida or Arkansas? Pffft. As Herbstreit said: "Michigan would beat Florida and Arkansas soundly"). The debate is really only whether there should be a rematch or should it be #1 vs. the best team not to have played them already.
Yep. I tend to fall in the no rematch camp, as long as there's a 1-loss team who has a reasonable argument, even if it's not as good as Michigan's. That game has to have meaning. If USC can't win out, though, I don't know how I'll feel. Florida and Arkansas just aren't that good, and it's nearly impossible to make a case for the Irish.

This is one of those years where no one has a complaint about anything. There's no controversy other than whining and splitting hairs. Ohio State earned a shot at the title. They're the only ones. Some other team is going to get lucky and get the chance to play them, which will be nice for them and their fans, but none of them actually earned it.

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Old 11-21-06, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by bravesmg
I couldn't argue ND against Michigan, but I don't understand how we're making comparisons here. Ok, I'll step out on a small limb and say that if USC beats ND, then they're going to be in the championship game. But if ND beats USC, the #3 team in the country on the last game of the regular season, I don't understand why that doesn't at least make them #3, and in all likelyhood I think they should be #2. It seems like we are taking style points into too much of a factor for me. Yes, NDs wins haven't been spectacular, but they've only dropped 1 game and to the #2 team. USC squeaked by just as many as ND (I think, don't quote me on that but I think it's comparable), and their loss was to a TERRIBLE team. I don't know why they're not getting trashed for that loss much more than they are.

But if ND wins against USC it doesn't seem like they're getting true credit for beating a #3 team. If it was Florida or Arkansas playing USC, and they beat USC, it sounds like it would be a no brainer that they would get the #2 slot. Either ND is FAR, FAR too high in the rankings at #5, or the rankings don't mean squat. If the polls are just slotting them in there because of their record, knowing full well that there's nothing they could do to jump Michigan, or even Florida or Arkansas, it just makes this whole BCS deal even more of a mess than it is already.
Well you're assuming the polls are even remotely accurate. Actually, that's probably a little harsh, the polls are okay. But they're horribly flawed too. The BCS does a better job of representing a true ranking, at least as true you can get given the info.

If ND beats USC, they will move ahead of USC. They'll still probably be behind Florida and I can see the argument as to why they should be ahead of Florida. It's the same problem in any year. Two teams with identical records, and you have to pick one. Without them playing each other it is just guesswork. The weak schedule hurts Notre Dame in this instance. But ND still can't leapfrog Michigan to get to the BCS game and that's why they're being ignored in the title talk. If USC wins, you can at least construct an arugment as to why they're better than Michigan.

Now why is USC ahead of Notre Dame right now? Again, it's just guesswork. People percieve USC's schedule to be harder and therefore a better team. But it doesn't mean they're right.
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Old 11-21-06, 02:53 PM
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Well you're assuming the polls are even remotely accurate. Actually, that's probably a little harsh, the polls are okay. But they're horribly flawed too. The BCS does a better job of representing a true ranking, at least as true you can get given the info.
I definitely agree with this. People bitch and moan about the BCS all the time, but for all its flaws, the BCS rankings have traditionally been far more reasonable than the human polls alone. The combination of humans watching the games and computers analyzing the data seems to provide much stronger rankings than one of them alone. This is at the end of the season, of course. Those idiotic Week 8 BCS projections are nonsensical, as the computers aren't designed to predict future outcomes.

And I take issue with everyone saying Notre Dame has a "weak schedule". It's not the hardest in the country, mind you, and they have their fair share of freebies, but their schedule is far from weak. They play the potential ACC champ, the almost certain PAC-10 champ and likely BCS #2, the current consensus #2 team in the nation and likely BCS #3, plus three more bowl teams from major conferences (Purdue, Penn State, UCLA) and a very solid Navy team (who is also bowling). It's not the gauntlet someone like USC went through, but it's not too shabby.

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Old 11-21-06, 02:54 PM
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Man an 8-team playoff would be drool-worthy.

1 Ohio State vs. 8 Wisconsin
2 Michigan vs. 7 West Virginia

3 USC vs 6 Arkansas
4 Florida vs 5 Notre Dame
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Old 11-21-06, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by das Monkey
I agree with you in principle, but the two things I'll add to this:

1) Ohio State was more than 3 points better than Michigan. The bogus PI added 8 meaningless points, and then there's the two bad snaps, which accounted for at minimum a 10-point swing. Not that I think any team in the nation could have done better, but I think it's important to remember that Ohio State beat them convincingly, even if the final score looked close.

2) Beating USC in the Colisseum will be a very impressive accomplishment. No one does that. In the last 5 seasons (yes, 5 seasons), these are USC's losses: dropped pass at K-State, missed extra point/missed field goal OT loss at WSU, triple-OT loss at Cal, 4th down miracle against Texas in the Rose Bowl shootout, missed 2-point conversion at OSU. That's insane, and it's all on the road. If Notre Dame pulls off the miracle of all miracles, it likely doesn't exclipse Michigan's season, but it will be very, very impressive and IMO far more impressive than Michigan beating ND in South Bend. (Which is why it won't happen )

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I'd agree with you that Ohio State was the better team. They made some bad turnovers that made the game closer than it could (or should) have been. Although the score was 35-31 late in the 4th and Michigan had stopped OSU only to be undone by a roughing the passer call. The call was legit, but not representative of the play, as Michigan had stopped OSU. It was just a boneheaded play by one guy that occured after the play was over (and directly led to another OSU TD). Without that one penalty, Michigan might even have a shot to win. The point being, we can play the what if game all day. Lots of games have one team out play the other, only to win by a few points or even lose. Do I look at who I thought played better or who actually won and by what score? Lucky or not, I tend to look at the final score as most important. That's why I don't penalize Nore Dame for eeking it out over Michigan St., even though a competent coach would have probably led Michigan St. to victory.

As for #2, it doesn't mean all the much to me. You're talking about past USC teams, led by Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. Not about this current team. USC may be tough at home, but I'm sure the same can be said of any top team. I could say that beating Miami at home was impossible in their heyday, but these days not so much. Without Heisman winning QBs, I don't think I can consider USC to be the same team. If Notre Dame does beat USC, I don't see how that's more impressive than Michigan beating ND (as ND would then be higher ranked than USC, making Michigan's win agianst a higher ranked opponent).
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Old 11-21-06, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by El Scorcho
Man an 8-team playoff would be drool-worthy.

1 Ohio State vs. 8 Wisconsin
2 Michigan vs. 7 West Virginia

3 USC vs 6 Arkansas
4 Florida vs 5 Notre Dame

That'd be great but you'd get more complaints from Louisville, Wisconsin, and even Boise State.
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Old 11-21-06, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by IMRICKJAMES
If so it would definitely prove that theory of losing early being a lot better than losing late.
That's a theory that needs proving? It's a fact, and there's good logic behind it.

Originally Posted by El Scorcho
I know it's not that rare, I just think it's humorous that the powers that be let this kind of crap continue.
Same thing could happen with a playoff. The BCS system sucks, but it has nothing to do with the possibility of 2 teams splitting games and one being declared the national champs. And there's good logic behind that too; the 2 games are not equal. One game is "regular season", and one is "playoffs". Yes, it's playoffs whether it's the BCS or a playoff system. Say 2 teams meet in the Super Bowl who played earlier in the year, and the loser of the 1st game wins the Super Bowl. Is there any issue with that? Is their title less legit?

It's the national title game, winning it is the game that matters. All that came before it is just about getting to that game, nothing else.
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Old 11-21-06, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by das Monkey
And I take issue with everyone saying Notre Dame has a "weak schedule". It's not the hardest in the country, mind you, and they have their fair share of freebies, but their schedule is far from weak. They play the potential ACC champ, the almost certain PAC-10 champ and likely BCS #2, the current consensus #2 team in the nation and likely BCS #3, plus three more bowl teams from major conferences (Purdue, Penn State, UCLA) and a very solid Navy team (who is also bowling). It's not the gauntlet someone like USC went through, but it's not too shabby.

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Well, to be fair, I wasn't including USC in Notre Dame's schedule since they hadn't played them yet (and the computers have taken them into account yet). And I wouldn't be singing too many praises on how tough Navy is. But it's all relative in the schedule department, and Notre Dame's just doesn't seem to stack up to most other top 10 teams.
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Old 11-21-06, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by LurkerDan
That's a theory that needs proving? It's a fact, and there's good logic behind it.
I don't know if the logic is that good. It's usually a matter of scheduling more than anything.
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Old 11-21-06, 03:13 PM
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As for #2, it doesn't mean all the much to me. You're talking about past USC teams, led by Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. Not about this current team. USC may be tough at home, but I'm sure the same can be said of any top team. I could say that beating Miami at home was impossible in their heyday, but these days not so much. Without Heisman winning QBs, I don't think I can consider USC to be the same team. If Notre Dame does beat USC, I don't see how that's more impressive than Michigan beating ND (as ND would then be higher ranked than USC, making Michigan's win agianst a higher ranked opponent).
Point taken. That said, USC is still a very good team, and I think the lack of huge stars has made people take them a bit lightly. They struggled early on due to some crazy injuries and lack of experience (they lost both Jarrett and Smith for a while, and I believe were on their 4th-string RB), but right now, they're playing about as well as anyone, and I'd still consider winning at the Colisseum to be the most difficult task in college football, at least until someone does it.

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