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mlb: which players will fall off in the 2nd half?

Old 06-27-05, 03:35 PM
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mlb: which players will fall off in the 2nd half?

coming up on the halfway point now the mlb season
some players have been pretty surprising..
which ones do you expect to fal off most in the 2nd half?

dontrelle at the top of everyone's list?
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Old 06-27-05, 03:37 PM
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Jon Garland
Brian Roberts
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Old 06-27-05, 03:44 PM
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some stats to keep in mind
AVERAGE
1. Brian Roberts, Bal .363
2. Alex Rodriguez, NYY .338
3. Johnny Damon, Bos .337
4. Vladimir Guerrero, LAA .335
5. Michael Young, Tex .321

1. Derrek Lee, ChC .388
2. Albert Pujols, StL .337
3. Miguel Cabrera, Fla .332
4. Clint Barmes, Col .329
5. Luis Castillo, Fla .323

HOMERUNS
1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY 20
2. Mark Teixeira, Tex 20
3. Miguel Tejada, Bal 19
4. David Ortiz, Bos 19
5. Alfonso Soriano, Tex 19

1. Andruw Jones, Atl 24
2. Derrek Lee, ChC 22
3. Albert Pujols, StL 20
4. Cliff Floyd, NYM 20
5. Carlos Lee, Mil 20

RBIS
1. Manny Ramirez, Bos 66
2. Alex Rodriguez, NYY 65
3. David Ortiz, Bos 65
4. Mark Teixeira, Tex 58
5. Miguel Tejada, Bal 58

1. Carlos Lee, Mil 69
2. Derrek Lee, ChC 64
3. Albert Pujols, StL 64
4. Pat Burrell, Phi 60
5. Carlos Delgado, Fla 55

WINS
1. Jon Garland, CWS 12
2. Roy Halladay, Tor 11
3. Mark Buehrle, CWS 9
4. Jeremy Bonderman, Det 9
5. Matt Clement, Bos 9

1. Dontrelle Willis, Fla 12
2. Livan Hernandez, Was 11
3. Chris Carpenter, StL 11
4. Roy Oswalt, Hou 9
5. Doug Davis, Mil 9

ERA
1. Kenny Rogers, Tex 2.46
2. Mark Buehrle, CWS 2.48
3. Roy Halladay, Tor 2.51
4. Bartolo Colon, LAA 2.99
5. Carlos Silva, Min 3.18

1. Roger Clemens, Hou 1.51
2. Dontrelle Willis, Fla 1.76
3. Roy Oswalt, Hou 2.70
4. Pedro Martinez, NYM 2.72
5. John Smoltz, Atl 2.74
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Old 06-27-05, 03:53 PM
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The whole Baltimore Orioles team ......and the Yankees
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Old 06-27-05, 03:59 PM
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Here are my predictions for worse 2nd halves:

Pitchers:
--------
Buehrle
Garland
Dontrelle
Gambler
Carpenter
Moehler
Rusch
Myers
Silva
Colon
Cliff Lee
V. Santos
Washburn
J. Johnson
Livan
Lackey
Loaiza
Freddy Garcia
Paul Byrd
Contreras

Hitters:
-------
Polanco
Brady Clark
Ensberg
Dellucci
R. Sanders
JD Drew
Chad Tracy
Burnitz
Mackowiak
Luis Castillo
Belliard


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Old 06-27-05, 04:25 PM
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I am pretty sure Lee isn't going to hit at a .388 clip for the rest of the season. Roberts is surely going to be the Melvin Mora of this year.

Willis is a notorious 2nd half tanker. I'd take him to tank every day of the week. Garland will probably not be as strong, either.
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Old 06-27-05, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by raven56706
The whole Baltimore Orioles team ......and the Yankees

I was going to say the Nats. I still can't fathom how a team that has been outscored can be 13 games over .500.

Then again, that division is so mediocre that 86-88 wins might take it. They only need to go .500 the rest of the way to get that.
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Old 06-27-05, 04:51 PM
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Barmes already fell off, so to speak.
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Old 06-27-05, 05:04 PM
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Derrek Lee, because he simply will not hit .388 all year. I'm also going to say Brett Myers and Dontrelle Willis.
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Old 06-27-05, 05:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Red Dog
I was going to say the Nats. I still can't fathom how a team that has been outscored can be 13 games over .500.

Then again, that division is so mediocre that 86-88 wins might take it. They only need to go .500 the rest of the way to get that.
How is the NL East mediocre? The last place team is better than the 3rd place team in the Central and West. I would say it is very competitive and the others are not.
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Old 06-27-05, 07:05 PM
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Cliff Floyd. Recent history would dictate that he always seems to get injured. Great player when healthy, and I hope he stays that way. But I have my doubts.

Gil Meche (Seattle pitcher) has 8 wins right now. Not the greatest ERA, and I doubt he gets to 15.
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Old 06-27-05, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Flashback
How is the NL East mediocre? The last place team is better than the 3rd place team in the Central and West. I would say it is very competitive and the others are not.

Same difference - so the teams will beat each other up then. Either way, I think 86-88 wins takes it.
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Old 06-27-05, 09:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Flashback
How is the NL East mediocre? The last place team is better than the 3rd place team in the Central and West. I would say it is very competitive and the others are not.
It's better top to bottom than probably any other division.

But it lacks a great team or two. All the teams are mediocre, so it's competitive and will be the whole season. But the division winner will almost certainly have the worst record of any 1st place team (and maybe even worse than the wild cards).

So it's competive, but all the teams are simply mediocre, thus it's a mediocre division by default (and I'm a Braves fan).
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Old 06-27-05, 09:19 PM
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I just hope the East beats up on each other, allowing the Cubs to tip-toe in with the Wild Card.
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Old 06-27-05, 09:26 PM
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Pretty much all these guys (stats are from past month)... I already removed Posada from the list, since he doesn't really have anywhere to fall to.

1B M. Teixeira (Tex - 1B) 1B LAA Top 5, 2-7 31/100 20 8 27 0 .310
2B F. López (Cin - 2B,3B,SS) 2B3BSSUtilBench 33/113 17 6 21 0 .292
3B M. Ensberg (Hou - 3B) 3B @Col Bot 1, 2-0 23/89 18 9 24 2 .258
SS B. Hall (Mil - 2B,3B,SS) 2B3BSSUtilBench 31/108 20 8 16 3 .287
OF M. Alou (SF - OF) OFUtilBench 38/104 16 5 13 1 .365
OF A. Jones (Atl - OF) OF @Fla Top 8, 7-1 31/102 18 13 26 1 .304
OF S. Stewart (Min - OF) OF KC Bot 5, 2-0 27/93 13 3 11 1 .290
Util T. Clark (Ari - 1B) 1BUtilBench 29/83 11 7 23 0 .349
BN K. Griffey Jr. (Cin - OF) OFUtilBench 31/100 19 8 22 0 .310
BN R. Mackowiak (Pit - 2B,3B,OF) 2B3BOFUtilBench 22/91 14 3 16 1 .242


Pos Pitchers Edit Opp Status IP W SV K ERA WHIP
SP D. Hermanson (CWS - SP,RP) SPRPPBench 8.1 0 6 3 5.40 2.16
RP K. Foulke (Bos - RP) RP Cle Top 7, 0-4 13.2 3 3 10 1.98 1.17
RP T. Jones (Fla - RP) RP Atl Top 8, 1-7 9.1 1 6 7 1.93 0.86
P Y. Brazobán (LAD - RP) RPPBench SD 9:10 pm 11.1 0 2 7 3.97 1.06
P J. Smoltz (Atl - SP,RP) P @Fla Top 8, 7-1 50.1 5 0 34 2.50 0.93
P P. Walker (Tor - RP) P ^@TB Top 8, 2-4 16.1 2 0 6 1.65 0.98
BN J. Garland (CWS - SP) SPPBench 41.1 4 0 22 4.35 1.11
BN R. Johnson (NYY - SP) BN @Bal Top 6, 4-4 39.2 2 0 41 3.63 1.13
BN K. Rogers (Tex - SP) BN LAA Top 5, 2-7 29.1 3 0 20 4.30 1.43
BN G. Rusch (ChC - SP,RP) SPRPPBench 38.2 2 0 25 3.72 1.32
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Old 06-27-05, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by El Scorcho
Jon Garland
Brian Roberts
Ha - those were exactly the two names that I came up with when I saw the thread title.
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Old 06-27-05, 10:27 PM
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ummmm.........Wabio stongly recommends Y2K Falcon drops or trades RJ, Smoltz, Hermanson, Andruw, Bill Hall, Felipe Lopez, and Shannon Stewart.
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Old 06-27-05, 11:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Josh Hinkle
It's better top to bottom than probably any other division.

But it lacks a great team or two. All the teams are mediocre, so it's competitive and will be the whole season. But the division winner will almost certainly have the worst record of any 1st place team (and maybe even worse than the wild cards).

So it's competive, but all the teams are simply mediocre, thus it's a mediocre division by default (and I'm a Braves fan).
I don't understand. If the Central and West had winning records v. the East then I would buy that. But they don't. The West is pathetic and the Central has the Cards, and maybe the Cubs. Each division will beat each other up but that said the East is the better division.
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Old 06-28-05, 12:07 AM
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I'm also going with Derek Lee. There's no way he can keep up this pace, can he?
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Old 06-28-05, 12:22 AM
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You guys are counting out a lot of younger players who have turned the corner this season. Guys like Roberts and Garland will probably regress a bit, but they have shown improvement each season since they got to the bigs. I don't think Dontrelle's going to go away either. Last year was his first full season in the bigs. He hit the wall, but now he's got a full season under his belt and he went through an intense off-season regiment.

Lee will regress, but it's going to take a hell of a slump for him to lose the batting title. He's another guy who's turned the corner. A little later than you'd expect, but his numbers have continued to improve each season. Cubs got him at the right time; they'll have him locked down for the best part of his career.
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