Religion, Politics and World Events They make great dinner conversation, don't you think? plus Political Film

2012 election predictions

Old 07-15-10, 01:16 AM
  #1  
DVD Talk Special Edition
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,077
2012 election predictions

I know it's way too early, but I thought this would be a fun thread.

I think Romney will be the republican nominee. Despite his flip-flopping, I believe he's the most electable republican. Most of the others are either too dull or don't have enough broad appeal.

I think if the economy has improved, Obama will get reelected. General elections are usually about personality/charisma more than policies. Palin comes the closest to matching Obama, but isn't that appealing outside of her base.

If Obama wins, I still think he'll drop Indiana and North Carolina. Maybe pick up Missouri.

If the economy is still bad, Obama will probably lose. Unless Palin is the republican nominee.

What do you guys think?

Last edited by Yeti4623; 07-15-10 at 01:21 AM.
Yeti4623 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 01:23 AM
  #2  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Re: 2012 election predictions

You have a better chance to be the Republican nominee than does Romney.

If there hasn't been a signficant improvement in the economy, I think Hillary just might challenge Obama for the Democratic nomination.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 01:28 AM
  #3  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 11,747
Re: 2012 election predictions

Hillary will challenge Obama, with John Edwards as her Vice President and Matlock as Secretary of State.
dork is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 02:15 AM
  #4  
DVD Talk God
 
kvrdave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Pacific NW
Posts: 86,201
Re: 2012 election predictions

Romney will not be the nominee.
Racism will be said to play a major role in the election.
Chris Matthews will achieve multiple orgasms during Obamas speech at the convention.
The Black Panthers will not kill any cracker babies despite saying that is what must be done.
kvrdave is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 02:22 AM
  #5  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Dr Mabuse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: 75 clicks above the Do Lung bridge...
Posts: 18,950
Re: 2012 election predictions

Polling on Obama and the general Dem direction in general is brutal right now.

Hillary clears Obama's positives in this poll.

I notice Jindal is the highest scorer in this poll for Repubs.

Dr Mabuse is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 02:50 AM
  #6  
Needs to provide a working email
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD
Posts: 1,741
Re: 2012 election predictions

Hemingway could have written this thread.
Hank Ringworm is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 04:18 AM
  #7  
Moderator
 
TheBigDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Florida
Posts: 10,738
Re: 2012 election predictions

I think perhaps the biggest factor will be the outcome of the 2010 elections.

If the Dems hold Congress, then Obama will be in trouble. People are already tired of Obama blaming all his problems on Bush and the Republicans that have no/little power. That won't be a winning argument in 2012.

If the Republicans win in 2010, then Obama stands a good chance of re-election. He'll have a scapegoat. Voters might be willing to keep him in office to avoid total Republican control.
TheBigDave is online now  
Old 07-15-10, 07:23 AM
  #8  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Re: 2012 election predictions

I believe there is some logic in that; but, the main factor will be what the economy is like in the summer & early fall of 2012.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 08:11 AM
  #9  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: So Cal
Posts: 7,072
Re: 2012 election predictions

Obama won't get reelected. The economy won't pick up by 2012. We'll need to add hundreds of thousands of jobs per month.
Superboy is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 08:34 AM
  #10  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Re: 2012 election predictions

I heard a statistic this morning saying that the monthly job creation doesn't even keep up with the birth rate in the country.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 08:42 AM
  #11  
Moderator
 
wendersfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Nuova Repubblica di SalÚ
Posts: 32,859
Re: 2012 election predictions

I have no idea who will be the GOP nominee.

Obama will win the Democratic nomination handily and then win re-election, probably with ~53% of the popular vote.
wendersfan is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 08:49 AM
  #12  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Re: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
Obama will win the Democratic nomination handily and then win re-election, probably with ~53% of the popular vote.
You wanna bet?
classicman2 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:00 AM
  #13  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV)
Posts: 122,940
Re: 2012 election predictions

I just hope the GOP puts up some better primary candidates than the slugs that ran in '08. It doesn't look pretty right now.
Red Dog is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:01 AM
  #14  
Moderator
 
wendersfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Nuova Repubblica di SalÚ
Posts: 32,859
Re: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
You wanna bet?
With someone else perhaps. You have a history of not following up on things you promise to us here.
wendersfan is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:03 AM
  #15  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Re: 2012 election predictions

Where did I promise. I simply offered a bet.

I understand your hurting because you man is not doing so well right now.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:04 AM
  #16  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 36,981
Re: 2012 election predictions

I can't see Romney being the nominee either. I definitely don't see Palin being it.

Obama will be the Democratic nominee unless he dies or something crazy like that.

Who will win? Depends on the economy in 2012
Venusian is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:10 AM
  #17  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Re: 2012 election predictions

If Carter can be the nominee for the second time ........

Maybe Paul Ryan for the GOP nomination?
classicman2 is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:38 AM
  #18  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 25,062
Re: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
I believe there is some logic in that; but, the main factor will be what the economy is like in the summer & early fall of 2012.
A rare moment of sanity from you.

There's really no point in speculating on Obama's future at this point.

As for the Republicans, who the fuck knows? I'll go with a Palin-Jindal ticket just because that would be the most hilarious thing ever.
Tracer Bullet is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:39 AM
  #19  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 25,062
Re: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
I heard a statistic this morning saying that the monthly job creation doesn't even keep up with the birth rate in the country.
Lazy fucking babies, get off the teet!
Tracer Bullet is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:41 AM
  #20  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Th0r S1mpson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 36,443
Re: 2012 election predictions

The Republicans are just now starting to get past their flailing and nightmarish lack of identity that was birthed in the previous election. It's really hard to identify who will emerge as a preferred candidate right now. Certainly someone that appeals to the tea parties, or we'll see a 3rd party candidate emerge with a focus on fiscal responsibility and libertarian leanings to push for momentum into 2016. That would of course secure the re-election of Obama, but could be worth the cost. The Republicans are trying to adapt to that in their messaging but it's an uphill battle for the establishment.

If the economy stays bad, Obama may fall. It will be hard to justify all the spending if meaningful recovery is not realized.
Th0r S1mpson is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 09:47 AM
  #21  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV)
Posts: 122,940
Re: 2012 election predictions

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the economy will decide the 2012 election.
Red Dog is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 10:38 AM
  #22  
Moderator
 
wendersfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Nuova Repubblica di SalÚ
Posts: 32,859
Re: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the economy will decide the 2012 election.
That's just crazy talk.
wendersfan is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 10:45 AM
  #23  
Moderator
 
Groucho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Posts: 70,839
Re: 2012 election predictions

The Republican nominee will likely be somebody whose not even on the radar today.
Groucho is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 11:50 AM
  #24  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
The Bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 54,863
Re: 2012 election predictions

Whose _____ is not on the radar?
The Bus is offline  
Old 07-15-10, 12:02 PM
  #25  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: So Cal
Posts: 7,072
Re: 2012 election predictions

Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
The Republican nominee will likely be somebody whose not even on the radar today.
It didn't work last time so I don't think they'll do that again. McCain won the nomination because any candidate that was even remotely to the right of him would have gotten clobbered by Obama.

In the upcoming election, though, the Republicans can't go far right again, because Bush's policies still weigh heavily on this country's mind. So they'll have to pick another moderate Conservative. And their usual policy stance of "cut taxes, stimulate the economy" won't work.
Superboy is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.