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Election Day 2009 Preview

Old 11-06-09, 08:22 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

What percentage of Americans call themselves conservatives?

What percentage of Americans call themselves independents?

What percentage of Americans call themselves liberals?

If Gallup is correct, the base if hardly dying off.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/123854/co...cal-group.aspx

Last edited by classicman2; 11-06-09 at 08:25 AM.
Old 11-06-09, 08:36 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
If you lose your base - you don't have to worry about the next election.

In addition - you're not concerned about a 'coast-to-coast' strategy.
I have no idea what you're saying. The Republicans aren't losing their base (in fact that base is actively pushing everyone else out of the party) but their base isn't attractive to large swaths of the country. Do the math.
Old 11-06-09, 08:58 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

The base has never been 'attractive' to large swarths of the country.

The same is true with the Democrats.

The Repubs haven't done all that badly since 1950 - have they?

The Nixon (modified by Atwater-Reagan) strategy still works.
Old 11-06-09, 09:00 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet View Post
Yes, excising all "RINOs" for a one-size-fits-all ideology from coast-to-coast is going to work brilliantly for the Republicans. They showed us!
It's not like this sentiment is exclusive to the Republicans.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/20...hts-big-lesson

Tonight's big lesson
by kos
Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 09:32:52 PM PST

There will be much number-crunching tomorrow, but preliminary numbers (at least in Virginia) show that GOP turnout remained the same as last year, but Democratic turnout collapsed. This is a base problem, and this is what Democrats better take from tonight:

1. If you abandon Democratic principles in a bid for unnecessary "bipartisanship", you will lose votes.

2. If you water down reform in favor of Blue Dogs and their corporate benefactors, you will lose votes.

3. If you forget why you were elected -- health care, financial services, energy policy and immigration reform -- you will lose votes.

Tonight proved conclusively that we're not going to turn out just because you have a (D) next to your name, or because Obama tells us to. We'll turn out if we feel it's worth our time and effort to vote, and we'll work hard to make sure others turn out if you inspire us with bold and decisive action.

The choice is yours. Give us a reason to vote for you, or we sit home. And you aren't going to make up the margins with conservative voters. They already know exactly who they're voting for, and it ain't you.
Old 11-06-09, 12:31 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

More fallout and denials after the voters have spoken...

For parties, the soul-searching begins
'Do people think we're tending to the things they care about?'

By Michael D. Shear and Paul Kane
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 5, 2009

Democrats on Capitol Hill began a nervous debate Wednesday about the course President Obama has set for their party, with some questioning whether they should emphasize job creation over some of the more ambitious items on the president's agenda.

The conversations came as White House officials insisted that the party's gubernatorial defeats in Virginia and New Jersey had few implications for Obama's standing or for Democratic prospects in the 2010 midterm elections.

But moderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. Liberal lawmakers, meanwhile, said the party's shortcoming came in moving too slowly on health-care reform and other items that would satisfy a base becoming disenchanted with the failure to deliver rapid change in government.

Voters in both states cited the economy as by far their top concern, and many lawmakers said the outcomes were a blunt wake-up call to put the issue front and center.

"The question is, do people think we're tending to the things they care about?" said Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.) as he left a meeting of Senate leaders. He said there was palpable concern among his colleagues Wednesday that the main agenda items Democrats are pursuing -- health care and climate change -- resonate very little with voters focused on finding or keeping jobs.

"Don't think people in my state are going to stand up and start cheering about Copenhagen," Rockefeller said, referring to the European city that will host a summit on global warming next month. Critics of the climate-change legislation before Congress say it would be a job-killer in states dependent on manufacturing and natural resources.


Obama all but ignored the election results, calling to congratulate the winners and traveling to Wisconsin for an education speech. But his top aides worked furiously to rebut the idea that Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia require a reassessment of the president's priorities.

"People went to the polls and voted on local issues, not to either register support for or opposition to the president," press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters hours after the balloting. Asked whether moderate lawmakers might view the results differently, and thus worry about casting tough votes on Obama's agenda, Gibbs said no. "I don't think they will, and I'm not concerned," he said.

Senior Obama adviser David Axelrod said that he and other White House aides will attempt to help the "merchants of conventional wisdom focus on the facts here." And he said there will be no change in the president's push for health-care reform -- nor a change in tactics by his lieutenants.

Signs of change

But there were clear signs that the landscape has changed for Democrats in the past year. Independents, who were crucial to Obama's election, swung dramatically to Republicans in both Virginia and New Jersey. If that pattern holds a year from now, Democratic lawmakers in swing districts could find themselves losing reelection battles.

The results left lawmakers less sanguine than the president's ever-confident advisers. Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D) said the results in his state and elsewhere have "somewhat of a chilling effect, potentially, on the agenda."

Connolly, who provided a detailed briefing on the results Wednesday morning to the 35 freshmen House Democrats, focused on what he called a "depressed Democratic base." Voters in the Old Dominion who had sided with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) last November showed up in greater numbers Tuesday than those who voted for Obama last year, Connolly said he stressed to his colleagues.

"I concluded from last night, we've got to pass health care," Connolly said, adding that his message is: "Make sure I give Democrats something to be excited about."

Steve Elmendorf, a veteran Democratic strategist who was a top congressional aide when Democrats were chased from control of the House in a 1994 GOP landslide, said Wednesday that lawmakers are far less complacent today than they were 15 years ago.

"They need to pay attention to it," Elmendorf said. "Voters spoke, and I think the message they sent was they care about the economy and they care about jobs. I don't think there's any reason to panic here. We have to get health care done, and then we have to turn our attention to the economy and jobs."

Elmendorf said it was a "big deal" that the Democratic gubernatorial candidates lost independents, who he said were "a key to Obama's victory. They are a key to the Democrats' strength as a party."

Calls for more action

But many of the party's leading progressives echoed the idea that the elections showed the only way to build toward victory is to aggressively push the agenda items envisioned in January. "We have to do it all," said Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

"It's a matter of tangibles being delivered," said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), a close ally of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). "Victory breeds victory."

Others sought to take a pragmatic view of Tuesday's voting. Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio), elected in the Democratic takeover of 2006 and a leader of the conservative wing of the caucus, dismissed the idea that the elections would have an impact on his vote on health-care legislation. That bill could reach the House floor as early as Saturday.

"The issues are particular to Virginia and New Jersey. You could just as easily turn to what happened in Upstate New York and extrapolate good news for Democrats," he said.

Aides in the West Wing also sought to highlight the Democratic victory Tuesday in New York's 23rd Congressional District.

"We won a congressional seat that's been in Republican hands since Ulysses S. Grant was president, in part because of the disunity in the Republican Party," Axelrod said. "That was the only truly national contest on the ballot."

Axelrod argued that the intervention of national conservatives to push the moderate GOP candidate out of that contest would be the only lasting lesson of the night.

"The most portentous thing that happened yesterday was that the right wing of the Republican Party ran a moderate Republican essentially out of the race, and lost a seat they had held for more than 100 years," he said. "I don't take that as discouragement."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...110404833.html
Now I'm hearing that the vote on the health care bill may be delayed until next week. I thought Democrats had a large majority in the House.
Old 11-06-09, 01:03 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Apparently the Democratic Whip in the House did another head count.

Or maybe - they just want to come in on Saturday.
Old 11-06-09, 07:07 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by wildcatlh View Post
It's not like this sentiment is exclusive to the Republicans.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/20...hts-big-lesson
Yea KOS, they should side with the 20% of the population who call themselves Liberal, real winning strategy......
Old 11-17-09, 08:10 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...cedes-in-ny-23

Owens lead in NY 23 shrinks.

They haven't finished counting the absentee ballots, can the election be certified already? Seems weird that Owens is in Congress and voting before all the ballots are counted
Old 11-17-09, 08:46 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

It doesn't matter what the final vote count is. Owens has been sworn in. He's the representative from that district.
Old 11-17-09, 08:48 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

My question is for our NY friends. Do they not have to wait to certify the election?
Old 11-17-09, 09:40 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Apparently The House doesn't have to wait for certification.

There have been a number of times when a person was certified by the state, and he was challenged in The House and another person was seated.
Old 11-17-09, 09:43 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

How often has that happened outside of Civil War/Reconstruction?
Old 11-17-09, 09:56 AM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

A number of times in the 20th Century.

The most notable one (at least the one I can easily recall) was on a seat in Indiana. The Republican was certified the winner. The House seated a Democrat.
Old 11-17-09, 01:47 PM
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Re: Election Day 2009 Preview

Originally Posted by Venusian View Post
My question is for our NY friends. Do they not have to wait to certify the election?
Article 1, Section 5 of the US Constitution: Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members.

Congress and each house can set its own rules on membership, election results, etc (see McCloskey-McIntyre in the IND-08 race and the Landrieu-Jenkins LA Senate race)
But obviously, if Owens somehow ended up with fewer votes, he would be forced to resign having already been sworn in or face expulsion.

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