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Dems worried about losing control of Congress

Old 09-12-08, 09:36 AM
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Dems worried about losing control of Congress

Democrats on Capitol Hill fear Obama fallout

By Andrew Ward in Washington

Published: September 11 2008 23:30 | Last updated: September 11 2008 23:30

Democratic jitters about the US presidential race have spread to Capitol Hill, where some members of Congress are worried that Barack Obama’s faltering campaign could hurt their chances of re-election.

Party leaders have been hoping to strengthen Democratic control of the House and Senate in November, but John McCain’s jump in the polls has stoked fears of a Republican resurgence.

A Democratic fundraiser for Congressional candidates said some planned to distance themselves from Mr Obama and not attack Mr McCain.

“If people are voting for McCain it could help Republicans all the way down the ticket, even in a year when the Democrats should be sweeping all before us,” said the fundraiser, a former Hillary Clinton supporter.

“There is a growing sense of doom among Democrats I have spoken to . . . People are going crazy, telling the campaign ‘you’ve got to do something’.”

Concern was greatest among first-term representatives who won seats in traditionally Republican districts in the landslide of 2006. “Several of them face a real fight to hold on to those seats,” the fundraiser said.

Tony Podesta, a senior Democratic lobbyist, said members of Congress were “a little nervous” after Mr McCain shook up the race with his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate and intensified attacks on Mr Obama.

“Republicans have been on the offensive for the past two weeks . . . You don’t win elections on the defensive.”

The campaign manager for a first-term Democratic congressman from a blue-collar district in the north-east rejected suggestions that Mr Obama had become a liability. He said his candidate would reach out to Republicans and avoid attacks on Mr McCain.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8...077b07658.html

and Gallup confirms an almost closed gap

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Ba...mpetitive.aspx
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Old 09-12-08, 09:44 AM
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I long for a ticket headed by Hillary.
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Old 09-12-08, 09:52 AM
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They shouldn't be.
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Old 09-12-08, 09:53 AM
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I think generic polls aren't that useful
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Old 09-12-08, 09:54 AM
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oh and I agree with Tracer, if the shift continues, they may not have as much gain as previously expected, but i doubt they'll lose control
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Old 09-12-08, 10:03 AM
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I believe generic polls may indicate a trend.

I wonder if the politicos are still holding to their prediction of the Senate make-up after the election?
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Old 09-12-08, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
I wonder if the politicos are still holding to their prediction of the Senate make-up after the election?
The Senate elections are a special case this year. The Republicans hold a lot of seats that are losing incumbents or are otherwise trending Democratic, regardless of the national mood. Virginia is an example. I think this situation is more worrisome for the Democrats with regards to the House.
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Old 09-12-08, 10:08 AM
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another congressional generic poll


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ssional_ballot
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Old 09-12-08, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
The Senate elections are a special case this year. The Republicans hold a lot of seats that are losing incumbents or are otherwise trending Democratic, regardless of the national mood. Virginia is an example. I think this situation is more worrisome for the Democrats with regards to the House.
The least senate gain for the Democrats I have seen is 6-7.

Do you believe the Democrats are going to gain that many?
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Old 09-12-08, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
The least senate gain for the Democrats I have seen is 6-7.

Do you believe the Democrats are going to gain that many?
I think five or six, maybe a couple more.
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Old 09-12-08, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
The least senate gain for the Democrats I have seen is 6-7.

Do you believe the Democrats are going to gain that many?
You're not looking hard enough. I routinely see five pick-ups identified: Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Colorado. And Alaska may not even be a certain pick-up now that there's an Alaskan Republican on the top of the ballot.

Earlier in the summer, there was some mention of Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and the Mississippi special election being in play, but I think most people agree at this point that those are relative long shots.

So I would say 4-6 pick-ups for the Democrats, with a potential upside of 9 if everything breaks their way.
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Old 09-12-08, 02:49 PM
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You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?
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Old 09-12-08, 02:52 PM
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Yes, but do any individual congressmen have such ratings? Because last I checked, we vote for individuals, not a (R) or (D) Congress.
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Old 09-12-08, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by MACD23 View Post
You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?
I can't think of a time when Congress has had a higher approval rating than the president. I'm sure it must have happened at some point, but I don't know when that might have been.
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Old 09-12-08, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by MACD23 View Post
You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?
That doesn't matter. Even in times of "vote the bums out" the exception is always "my bum". You need to look at the local districts, not the national mood.
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Old 09-12-08, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by MACD23 View Post
You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?

This is such a meaningless comparison. Congress doesn't have any supporters like Bush does. How many people go around saying they support congress? How many Congress bumper stickers do you see? It's popular to hate congress. I bet most of the people that hate congress couldn't name a single piece of legislation they passed in the last year.
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Old 09-12-08, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
I can't think of a time when Congress has had a higher approval rating than the president. I'm sure it must have happened at some point, but I don't know when that might have been.
Even when the President has one of the lowest approval ratings in history?
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Old 09-12-08, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by MACD23 View Post
Even when the President has one of the lowest approval ratings in history?
Yeah, even then. I can think of two times when Congressional approval might have been high than the president's, 1974 (just before Nixon resigned) and 1994/95, just after the Republicans took control of the House. But even in late '94/early '95, Clinton's approval rating was higher than Bush's is now.
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Old 09-12-08, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
That doesn't matter. Even in times of "vote the bums out" the exception is always "my bum". You need to look at the local districts, not the national mood.
I've been trying to vote out "my bum" most of my voting life. Even when I worked for my bum.
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Old 09-12-08, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by JasonF View Post
Earlier in the summer, there was some mention of Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and the Mississippi special election being in play, but I think most people agree at this point that those are relative long shots.
I'm pretty surprised at how well Franken is doing here in MN. I don't know a lot of people that particularly like Coleman, but I figured Franken's abrasiveness would keep him out of it. I think the Coleman campaigns negative ads may be hurting them more than helping them.
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Old 09-12-08, 03:06 PM
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I'm pretty sure I've always voted against my bum no matter which district I've lived in

eh...scratch that, last time i voted for my bum simply because of his party - i wanted a divided govt
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Old 09-12-08, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by wendersfan View Post
Yeah, even then. I can think of two times when Congressional approval might have been high than the president's, 1974 (just before Nixon resigned) and 1994/95, just after the Republicans took control of the House. But even in late '94/early '95, Clinton's approval rating was higher than Bush's is now.
There have been few presidents as unpopular as Bush, there have been few Congresses as unpopular as the current. The Dems won control in '06 on false and empty promises of sweeping change, and the ratings continued to plummet. I wouldn't assume the Dems control a damn thing, especially as Obama and the hype surrounding him fades and the Republicans energize the base to get out and vote for McCain Palin.
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Old 09-12-08, 03:13 PM
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don't assume if you dont want to, but look at the numbers. i'd be willing to bet money the dems will control congress next year. you willing to bet the other way?
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Old 09-12-08, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Venusian View Post
don't assume if you dont want to, but look at the numbers. i'd be willing to bet money the dems will control congress next year. you willing to bet the other way?
Numbers and graphs are stupid. It's what I believe that must be true.
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Old 09-12-08, 03:21 PM
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No, I'd say its likely they do, but I also think, per the article, and the sudden trend towards McCain that they may not. Its no lock. How the Dems aren't up by 20 points in every poll right now (including presidential) considering the circumstances (Bush, economy, war, media, etc) would normally be mind boggling, but then one must remember, they are afterall the Democrats.
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