Religion, Politics and World Events They make great dinner conversation, don't you think? plus Political Film
View Poll Results: < $3/gal for gas ever again in our lifetime?
Yes
28
37.33%
No
47
62.67%
Voters: 75. You may not vote on this poll

Will the U.S. ever see < $3/gal for gas ever again?

Old 05-28-08, 04:34 PM
  #1  
TGM
DVD Talk Legend
Thread Starter
 
TGM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 15,683
Will the U.S. ever see < $3/gal for gas ever again?

???
TGM is offline  
Old 05-28-08, 04:45 PM
  #2  
DVD Talk Godfather
 
The Bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 54,851
There's a chance it will approach or go under $3 in the winter.

You realize this question is about as useful as asking "Do you think we will ever see $0.25 cans of Coca-Cola at vending machines?"
The Bus is offline  
Old 05-28-08, 07:45 PM
  #3  
TGM
DVD Talk Legend
Thread Starter
 
TGM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 15,683
Originally Posted by The Bus
There's a chance it will approach or go under $3 in the winter.

You realize this question is about as useful as asking "Do you think we will ever see $0.25 cans of Coca-Cola at vending machines?"
What question posed on the internet is ever useful?
TGM is offline  
Old 05-28-08, 07:46 PM
  #4  
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 9,446
I think it will drop back down below $3, but probably not this year
lordwow is offline  
Old 05-28-08, 11:03 PM
  #5  
Admin-Thanos
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 31,521
High gas is here to stay. Start adjusting your life to it.
VinVega is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 02:49 AM
  #6  
DVD Talk Limited Edition
 
argh923's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Muncie, IN [Member formerly known as abrg923]
Posts: 6,341
Of course we will.
argh923 is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 03:16 AM
  #7  
Needs to contact an admin about multiple accounts
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 2,830
yes. but only on the history channel.
Cygnet74 is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 07:13 AM
  #8  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Do you remember when people were asking if we would ever see gasoline below $2.00 again - it wasn't that long ago?

It went below $2.00.

Don't listen to VinVega. He's a pessimist. We like eternal optimists (people like me) on this forum.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 07:50 AM
  #9  
Enormous Genitals
 
Bandoman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: a small cottage on a cul de sac in the lower pits of hell.
Posts: 33,001
Yes, but only if a viable alternative energy source is developed and mass-marketed.
Bandoman is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 07:54 AM
  #10  
Admin-Thanos
 
VinVega's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Caught between the moon and NYC
Posts: 31,521
Originally Posted by classicman2
Do you remember when people were asking if we would ever see gasoline below $2.00 again - it wasn't that long ago?

It went below $2.00.

Don't listen to VinVega. He's a pessimist. We like eternal optimists (people like me) on this forum.
I'm going to bookmark this thread for the big "I told you so" that's coming in the next year.
VinVega is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 08:25 AM
  #11  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
There's no question - the overall future trend for gasoline is up.

We're in the initial stages of the energy crisis that I have said a number of times on this forum that we're going to have.

I will admit - it has started a few years before I really thought it would. I actually thought we had 5-10 years, but we don't.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:04 AM
  #12  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Formerly known as "orangecrush18" - still legal though
Posts: 13,846
Originally Posted by Bandoman
Yes, but only if a viable alternative energy source is developed and mass-marketed.
Which is bound to happen if gas prices keep increasing at the same rate they have for the last 5+ years.
orangecrush is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:15 AM
  #13  
DVD Talk Legend
 
AGuyNamedMike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: (formerly known as Inglenook Hampendick) Fairbanks, Alaska!
Posts: 15,223
Will the U.S. ever see < $3/gal for gas ever again?

Nope, but it's no big thing. I really like this chart:

AGuyNamedMike is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:25 AM
  #14  
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
B5Erik's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Southern California
Posts: 9,028
I remember when gas got up to $2.00 a gallon in 1981. The price had more than doubled over an 18 month span.

By 1986 gas was back down to $0.79 a gallon.

I don't think gas will go back below, say, $2.69 ever again (thanks to China and India's increased demand), but gas at $2.89 or so isn't so outlandish. It could happen, and I think that at some point it's likely that it will.

I saw a report on CNN that said between $30 and $40 per barrel of oil is due to investors/speculators. They're inflating the price of oil by that much. All it would take is a significant drop in demand of, say, 3% and the speculators drop out and oil drops that $30 or $40 per barrel, bringing gas prices down to a nearly reasonable amount.

Plus, historically speaking (adjusted for inflation), gas SHOULD be running about $2.39 - $2.49 per gallon. Of course, that doesn't count China and India's increased demand in, so I'd say adjust that upward to $2.69 or $2.79 and that's where we SHOULD be if the speculators were not involved.
B5Erik is online now  
Old 05-29-08, 09:28 AM
  #15  
bhk
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Right of Atilla The Hun
Posts: 19,749
Yes we will. Even though the US congress has prevented drilling for more oil, other countries have a more rational energy policy. The supply of oil is OK and despite what many people say, the world hasn't reached peak oil as more and larger fields are being discovered. In addition, there is technology to extract oil from places where it couldn't be before. The price of oil will decrease as the current price is too high given the supply.
bhk is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:42 AM
  #16  
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
 
B5Erik's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Southern California
Posts: 9,028
Originally Posted by bhk
Yes we will. Even though the US congress has prevented drilling for more oil...
Yeah, drilling for more oil in Alaska would be bad, how? It's a frozen wasteland where the Republicans want drilling opened up. Plus oil drilling now is a lot safer and more environmentally sound than it was 40 or 50 years ago.

Opening up that region would drop oil prices, guaranteed. An influx of new supply always brings prices down.

And for all the Democrats saying we need to get off our dependency for foreign oil, why are they then changing their tune for a remote area in Alaska?

But, regardless, oil prices will come back down.
B5Erik is online now  
Old 05-29-08, 09:47 AM
  #17  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 25,062
Originally Posted by bhk
The supply of oil is OK and despite what many people say, the world hasn't reached peak oil as more and larger fields are being discovered.
Really? Do you have examples?
Tracer Bullet is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:48 AM
  #18  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 25,062
Originally Posted by AGuyNamedMike
Nope, but it's no big thing. I really like this chart:

I'm not sure we want to be emulating the economy of 1981.
Tracer Bullet is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 10:35 AM
  #19  
DVD Talk God
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 68,522
Alternative energy - good.

How long will it be before we see any real impact?

We need to pursue a course that can bring us benefit within a short period of time.

I know our environmentalist folks don't like to hear this, but that means fossil fuels.
We need to increase our domestic production of oil, natural gas, and coal as much as we possibly can.

Of course, it makes a whole bunch of sense to have a 'crash program' to increase our use of nuclear energy, but that's not going to occur.
classicman2 is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 11:14 AM
  #20  
Enormous Genitals
 
Bandoman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: a small cottage on a cul de sac in the lower pits of hell.
Posts: 33,001
Originally Posted by classicman2
Of course, it makes a whole bunch of sense to have a 'crash program' to increase our use of nuclear energy, but that's not going to occur.
That has made sense for decades, but it will never happen. The one thing the French got right, and we can't follow suit.
Bandoman is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 11:24 AM
  #21  
DVD Talk Legend
 
Shannon Nutt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 16,574
Originally Posted by B5Erik
Opening up that region would drop oil prices, guaranteed. An influx of new supply always brings prices down.
Yeah...but maybe only about 50 cents - so you'll be paying $3.50 instead of $4.00...and it would be back up to $4.00 about a year after oil started coming out of the ground anyway - so what's the point?

Much better to get off our asses and start developing alternative fuels and vehicles than this shell game of "let's drill more here!" or "let's get rid of the federal/state gas tax!" Our country is obsessed with short-term solutions (probably comes from our short-term attention spans).
Shannon Nutt is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 03:25 PM
  #22  
bhk
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Right of Atilla The Hun
Posts: 19,749
Originally Posted by Tracer Bullet
Really? Do you have examples?
http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2...007_nov_15.asp

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/...news2.13s.html

http://www.investors.com/editorial/e...96867272526661
Peak Oil: An Idea Whose Time Is Up
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Posted 5/28/2008

Energy: Analysts have found that investors spooked by the peak oil theory the belief that crude production has topped out and is in decline are partly behind the soaring oil prices. Someone should set them straight.

Blame part of $135-a-barrel oil on the increased demand in China and India, where the populations and economies are growing rapidly.

But the impact of those nations on crude prices in recent months is suspect. Global oil consumption grew 2% in the first quarter of this year over the first quarter of 2007, while production increased 2.5% over the same period. On a daily basis, roughly 85 million barrels of oil are consumed across the world, almost exactly matching the amount produced each day.

Production over the next two quarters is projected to continue rising (3.3% and 4.1%, according to estimates from Citigroup), while demand is expected to grow at a slower 1.6% pace over the next six months.

These data don't indicate higher prices, so something else is at work. Some analysts believe that investors who have swallowed the peak oil theory are pricing oil higher because they fear the world is running out of crude and permanent shortages are nigh. They shouldn't believe it.

The peak oil theory was popularized by Shell Oil geophysicist M. King Hubbert. He predicted in a 1956 paper that U.S. oil production would peak by the early 1970s and then decline sharply. The peak oilers many of whom quietly want the world to run out of oil say he was right. But they're missing some key points.

Yes, domestic output has peaked. But it peaked at a level 13% above what Hubbert predicted. And the peak wasn't followed by a falling-off-the-table decline. Output rose after a temporary slide.

U.S. production is trending down again, but it's not because there's no oil. It's due to shortsighted policies that prevent the industry from drilling for the almost 100 billion barrels of crude known to be under Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and beneath the oceans just off of America's coasts. It's because politics and political correctness block the development of Big Sky state oil shale fields, where as much as 2 trillion barrels of crude, by some estimates, sit idle.

It's possible that rather than falling for the peak oil theory, investors simply are considering the reality that Congress has done nothing to increase crude output, and that continuing on that foolish path will indeed bring shortages.

The U.S., though, is not the only nation that pumps oil. World output is expected to rise from 85 million barrels a day today to 110 million barrels by 2015, according to the International Energy Agency.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates argues that the remaining global oil resource base is 3.74 trillion barrels. That's more than triple the peak oil estimate of 1.2 trillion barrels. CERA also has noted that output will not fall as quickly as peak oil alarmists think. Many studies put the decline rate at 8% a year, but after studying 811 separate oil fields, CERA believes the rate to be about half that 4.5%.

By the way, this estimate doesn't even consider undiscovered and untapped oil fields. Nor are unconventional sources, such as shale oil, part of the equation.

As if he had peered into the spring of 2008 and seen the run-up in oil prices, Peter M. Jackson, CERA's director of oil industry activity, warned in 2006 that listening to the wrong voices would have consequences.

"The 'peak oil' argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future," he said.

The "theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate actions and turn attention away from the real issues," Jackson continued. "Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies."

So far, all five previous predictions that we were running out of oil have been wrong.

But one day the crude supply will effectively dry up. When it does, it won't happen overnight.

It will happen slowly enough, though, for consumers to adapt (through voluntary lifestyle changes) and markets to respond (with improved fuel efficiency, technological advances in extracting crude and new energy sources). There's no reason for investors to act as if the world is running out of oil. It isn't.

Click here for copyright permissions!
bhk is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 03:48 PM
  #23  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 25,062
Sorry, bhk, no dice. When previous huge finds were 40-60 billion barrels and now this Brazil one at 8 billion is considered big, we are not finding the fields to replace the ones that are dwindling.
Tracer Bullet is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:05 PM
  #24  
bhk
DVD Talk Legend
 
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Right of Atilla The Hun
Posts: 19,749
My point is that we haven't discovered all the oil there is to discover. We haven't reached peak oil yet.



Last edited by bhk; 05-29-08 at 09:08 PM.
bhk is offline  
Old 05-29-08, 09:23 PM
  #25  
DVD Talk Hero
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 25,062
Originally Posted by bhk
My point is that we haven't discovered all the oil there is to discover. We haven't reached peak oil yet.
Then you obviously don't understand the theory.
Tracer Bullet is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.