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Most members of my political party want the government to subsidize birth control and abortion.
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"The Fertility Gap" - New and improved with poll!

Old 03-15-06, 07:12 AM
  #1  
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This article from USA today is called "The liberal baby bust."

I suppose this is the logical outcome of putting a strong emphasis on birth control and abortion.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...babybust_x.htm

3/13/2006

The liberal baby bust

By Phillip Longman

What's the difference between Seattle and Salt Lake City? There are many differences, of course, but here's one you might not know. In Seattle, there are nearly 45% more dogs than children. In Salt Lake City, there are nearly 19% more kids than dogs.

This curious fact might at first seem trivial, but it reflects a much broader and little-noticed demographic trend that has deep implications for the future of global culture and politics. It's not that people in a progressive city such as Seattle are so much fonder of dogs than are people in a conservative city such as Salt Lake City. It's that progressives are so much less likely to have children.

It's a pattern found throughout the world, and it augers a far more conservative future — one in which patriarchy and other traditional values make a comeback, if only by default. Childlessness and small families are increasingly the norm today among progressive secularists. As a consequence, an increasing share of all children born into the world are descended from a share of the population whose conservative values have led them to raise large families.

Today, fertility correlates strongly with a wide range of political, cultural and religious attitudes. In the USA, for example, 47% of people who attend church weekly say their ideal family size is three or more children. By contrast, 27% of those who seldom attend church want that many kids.

In Utah, where more than two-thirds of residents are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, 92 children are born each year for every 1,000 women, the highest fertility rate in the nation. By contrast Vermont — the first to embrace gay unions — has the nation's lowest rate, producing 51 children per 1,000 women.

Similarly, in Europe today, the people least likely to have children are those most likely to hold progressive views of the world. For instance, do you distrust the army and other institutions and are you prone to demonstrate against them? Then, according to polling data assembled by demographers Ron Lesthaeghe and Johan Surkyn, you are less likely to be married and have kids or ever to get married and have kids. Do you find soft drugs, homosexuality and euthanasia acceptable? Do you seldom, if ever, attend church? Europeans who answer affirmatively to such questions are far more likely to live alone or be in childless, cohabiting unions than are those who answer negatively.

This correlation between secularism, individualism and low fertility portends a vast change in modern societies. In the USA, for example, nearly 20% of women born in the late 1950s are reaching the end of their reproductive lives without having children. The greatly expanded childless segment of contemporary society, whose members are drawn disproportionately from the feminist and countercultural movements of the 1960s and '70s, will leave no genetic legacy. Nor will their emotional or psychological influence on the next generation compare with that of people who did raise children.

Single-child factor

Meanwhile, single-child families are prone to extinction. A single child replaces one of his or her parents, but not both. Consequently, a segment of society in which single-child families are the norm will decline in population by at least 50% per generation and quite quickly disappear. In the USA, the 17.4% of baby boomer women who had one child account for a mere 9.2% of kids produced by their generation. But among children of the baby boom, nearly a quarter descend from the mere 10% of baby boomer women who had four or more kids.

This dynamic helps explain the gradual drift of American culture toward religious fundamentalism and social conservatism. Among states that voted for President Bush in 2004, the average fertility rate is more than 11% higher than the rate of states for Sen. John Kerry.

It might also help to explain the popular resistance among rank-and-file Europeans to such crown jewels of secular liberalism as the European Union. It turns out that Europeans who are most likely to identify themselves as "world citizens" are also less likely to have children.

Rewriting history?

Why couldn't tomorrow's Americans and Europeans, even if they are disproportionately raised in patriarchal, religiously minded households, turn out to be another generation of '68? The key difference is that during the post-World War II era, nearly all segments of society married and had children. Some had more than others, but there was much more conformity in family size between the religious and the secular. Meanwhile, thanks mostly to improvements in social conditions, there is no longer much difference in survival rates for children born into large families and those who have few if any siblings.

Tomorrow's children, therefore, unlike members of the postwar baby boom generation, will be for the most part descendants of a comparatively narrow and culturally conservative segment of society. To be sure, some members of the rising generation may reject their parents' values, as often happens. But when they look for fellow secularists with whom to make common cause, they will find that most of their would-be fellow travelers were quite literally never born.

Many will celebrate these developments. Others will view them as the death of the Enlightenment. Either way, they will find themselves living through another great cycle of history.
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Old 03-15-06, 07:32 AM
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RE: This article from USA today is called "The liberal baby bust."

And I noticed that the <s>article</s> opinion piece completely disregards immigration to keep new people coming into liberal cities like Seattle, San Fan, LA, NYC and Boston. Low birth rate does not affect those cities' ability to continue to support and grow their liberal base. Who immigrates to Salt Lake City?

-edited for al_bundy

Last edited by VinVega; 03-15-06 at 07:40 AM.
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Old 03-15-06, 07:33 AM
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it's not an article, it's an editorial
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Old 03-15-06, 07:36 AM
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Originally Posted by al_bundy
it's not an article, it's an editorial
So you agree with my point then.

PS - read the title of the thread.
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Old 03-15-06, 07:45 AM
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I hate to agree with our libertarian member, but there's truth in what the author of the piece says.

I understand it's a little difficult for you 'let's abort 'em all' liberals to accept.
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Old 03-15-06, 07:55 AM
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None of my liberal, secular and childless friends had abortions.

Count me as a secular liberal who has a family.

Also, unlike SLC, there is actually something to do in those liberal cities. They don't run around worshipping a religion as nutty as Scientology.
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Old 03-15-06, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by CRM114
None of my liberal, secular and childless friends had abortions.

Count me as a secular liberal who has a family.

Also, unlike SLC, there is actually something to do in those liberal cities. They don't run around worshipping a religion as nutty as Scientology.
Would you say that Scientology folks are liberals?
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Old 03-15-06, 08:04 AM
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None of my liberal, secular and childless friends had abortions.
How do you know they haven't?
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Old 03-15-06, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
Would you say that Scientology folks are liberals?
I have no idea. Are they? I can state my opinion that both Scientologists and Mormons are equally nuts. Only slightly nuttier than the rest of the religions, however.
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Old 03-15-06, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by classicman2
How do you know they haven't?
The only person I know that had an abortion how has a very happy family. It just happened when SHE wanted.
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Old 03-15-06, 08:33 AM
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In case you all didn't read the DETAILS of the piece, it's not arguing abortion anyways. Yes, I think it's a piece of it, but the article studying STATISTICALLY the sizes of families for liberals and the sizes of families for conservatives.

Back in the 50's and 60's whether you were liberal or conservative you had 2+ kids. These days liberals are likely to have one or no kids.

Conservatives say 3+.

Do you all not see the math the article is using?

It doesn't have to have anything to do with abortion. It may just be birth control. Either way, the SIZES of the families for liberals is smaller. Period.

Edited: I think they are actually mean SOCIAL conservatives. Which may or may not = fiscal conservatives.

Last edited by mosquitobite; 03-15-06 at 08:42 AM.
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Old 03-15-06, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by CRM114
The only person I know that had an abortion how has a very happy family. It just happened when SHE wanted.
Sorry CRM, no matter how progressive or secular a woman is, abortion is not something she "brags" about to her friends. I'm sure there are women you'd look at and bet money that she hasn't, but she'd break down in tears if you were to ask her.
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Old 03-15-06, 08:52 AM
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USA Today is bandwagon jumping. The latest issue of <i>Foreign Policy</i> has a long article on this phenomenon, titled <a href = "http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3376">'The Return of Patriarchy'.</a> It's an excellent read:

<img src = "http://www.foreignpolicy.com/issue_marapril_2006/cover153-frontpage.jpg"></img>
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Old 03-15-06, 08:55 AM
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This seems like a fairly obvious conclusion to me.

I think it has less to do with support of abortion, religeosity and morals and more to do with the average lifestyle choices of people of various political persuasions. On average young, unmarried urban professionals are more likely to be liberal and less likely to have kids. On average suburban, married couples with kids are more likely to vote conservatively.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:01 AM
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How did this become an abortion thread? Oh yeah a c-man seaway. Beautiful.

I agree with the point that Liberals have fewer kids than Conservatives, I don't agree that this will spell the end of Liberalism in the US. Even if you reject my argument that immigrants will add to the liberal population in cities, there are plenty of forces that can change people's views such as some of your conservatives favorite whipping boys like the media and Universities. You can pop out more Conservative kids, but they may become liberal through other means. We'll get to them in the end!
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Old 03-15-06, 09:07 AM
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I would be happy if abortion threads were moved to the Other Forum. That's where they belong, IMO.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by mosquitobite
Sorry CRM, no matter how progressive or secular a woman is, abortion is not something she "brags" about to her friends. I'm sure there are women you'd look at and bet money that she hasn't, but she'd break down in tears if you were to ask her.
Yes. They do break down in tears, literally.

There's this one woman that I know who lives near me. She's married with no kids. She's very liberal. She's open minded, and talks with me about everything. We've known each other for about 10 years. We know all sorts of stuff about each other.

So one day I asked her, "So how much marijuana have you smoked?"

And she casually answered, "Just a little."

And then I asked her, "So how many abortions have you had?"

Then she started to cry.

She didn't answer my question.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:19 AM
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Old 03-15-06, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by VinVega
How did this become an abortion thread? Oh yeah a c-man seaway. Beautiful.
I menitoned abortion in the first post in this thread.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by grundle
Yes. They do break down in tears, literally.

There's this one woman that I know who lives near me. She's married with no kids. She's very liberal. She's open minded, and talks with me about everything. We've known each other for about 10 years. We know all sorts of stuff about each other.

So one day I asked her, "So how much marijuana have you smoked?"

And she casually answered, "Just a little."

And then I asked her, "So how many abortions have you had?"

Then she started to cry.

She didn't answer my question.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by VinVega
How did this become an abortion thread? Oh yeah a c-man seaway. Beautiful.

I agree with the point that Liberals have fewer kids than Conservatives, I don't agree that this will spell the end of Liberalism in the US. Even if you reject my argument that immigrants will add to the liberal population in cities, there are plenty of forces that can change people's views such as some of your conservatives favorite whipping boys like the media and Universities. You can pop out more Conservative kids, but they may become liberal through other means. We'll get to them in the end!
unless I'm wrong, most Mexicans are devout Catholics, so I do reject your argument Vin. I think they are more conservative than most of us realize and liberals will never get the majority of their vote. They didn't come here to live off government hand outs. They came here for a better life for them and their families; and most work hard to provide it. They don't live in Section 8 housing collecting a welfare check.

The article mentioned that some kids will rebel, but when they look to others to join their new found "progressive" thinking clan, there won't be enough there.

I think the whole thing is God's way of insuring His people rule the earth.

Go forth and multiply is our command. And we follow.

It's a cycle.

Last edited by mosquitobite; 03-15-06 at 09:26 AM.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:25 AM
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grundle, that's not a question women want to be asked. If she were comfortable to tell you she would have, without you asking. It might also have been gentler to ask "have you had an abortion" rather than your question assuming she's had multiple.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by VinVega
And I noticed that the <s>article</s> opinion piece
You're right. I was wrong.

Originally Posted by VinVega
completely disregards immigration to keep new people coming into liberal cities like Seattle, San Fan, LA, NYC and Boston. Low birth rate does not affect those cities' ability to continue to support and grow their liberal base. Who immigrates to Salt Lake City?
Then how do you explain this?

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editor...l?id=110007043

August 1, 2005

Over the past 20 years about 1,000 people every day have been fleeing these high tax blue states, for low tax red states. It's one reason the Northeast has suffered economically, and declined politically in terms of electoral votes.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:29 AM
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Originally Posted by wendersfan
USA Today is bandwagon jumping. The latest issue of <i>Foreign Policy</i> has a long article on this phenomenon, titled <a href = "http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3376">'The Return of Patriarchy'.</a> It's an excellent read:

<img src = "http://www.foreignpolicy.com/issue_marapril_2006/cover153-frontpage.jpg"></img>
It's funny how when there were 3 billion people, they said we had "overpopulation."

But now that there are 6 billion people, they are trying to encourage people to have more children.
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Old 03-15-06, 09:29 AM
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With icebreakers like "How many abortions have you had?" you must be a real hit at parties.
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