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Conspiracy? Nah, but here's why Bush wins...

Old 11-02-04, 09:11 AM
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Conspiracy? Nah, but here's why Bush wins...

The electoral votes distributed to the states are based on representation in the House and Senate, which in turn are based on population. The number of electoral votes for each state in 2000 were based on 1990 Census numbers.

Flash forward to 2004 and the electoral votes have changed based on the 2000 Census. Perhaps not so surprisingly, they have changed virtually all in favor of the so-called "Red States."

Even if Kerry wins the exact same states that Gore did in 2000, he will be defeated by a handy margin. Let's look at why:

First, the states that voted for Gore (electorally speaking) in 2000:

New York (2000): 33 votes
New York (2004): 31 votes

Pennsylvania (2000): 23 votes
Pennsylvania (2004): 21 votes

Connecticut (2000): 8 votes
Connecticut (2004): 7 votes

Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin all lost 1 electoral vote each while California gained 1 additional vote.

Now the States that voted for Bush:

Florida (2000): 25 votes
Florida (2004): 27 votes

Texas (2000): 32 votes
Texas (2004): 34 votes

Arizona (2000): 8 votes
Arizona (2004): 10 votes

Georgia (2000): 13 votes
Georgia (2004): 15 votes

Mississippi, North Carolina, and Colorado all gained one additional vote while Oklahoma lost one.

So the total +/- ratio is:

Blue States: -7
Red States: +10

That's a 17 vote swing. Unless John Kerry pulls off upsets in Ohio and possibly Florida, George Bush should take the election (electorally speaking) fairly easily.

Now the question for all the conspiracy buffs is:

Did the Republicans knowingly alter the 2000 Census data to purposely and deliberately add electoral votes to the so-called Red States, while at the same time taking them away from the so-called "Blue States?"
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Old 11-02-04, 09:13 AM
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Old 11-02-04, 09:22 AM
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No.
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Old 11-02-04, 09:28 AM
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You do realize that people from blue states are moving into red states, don't you? Florida (from the NE), Arizona, and Nevada (from CA) are three that come to mind.
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Old 11-02-04, 09:35 AM
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You do realize that people from blue states are moving into red states, don't you?
Of course, but then the question becomes whether or not these "New-Blues" are enough to overturn the status quo in those states? Remember that popular vote in a state doesn't always equate to electoral votes. A candidate can lose a state by One Million votes or only 1 vote, yet still lose all the electoral votes in that state. (at least in 47 states he can).

The fact remains that even with the same state-by-state outcome as 2000, the Republicans win by a much larger margin in 2004.

Oh and P.S., since some of you try to see partisan politics in everything, I am not for or against either candidate; I simply thought this was an interesting piece of data.

Last edited by RicP; 11-02-04 at 09:38 AM.
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Old 11-02-04, 09:40 AM
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Originally posted by RicP
Oh and P.S., since some of you try to see partisan politics in everything, I am not for or against either candidate; I simply thought this was an interesting piece of data.
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Old 11-02-04, 09:58 AM
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Originally posted by RicP
Of course, but then the question becomes whether or not these "New-Blues" are enough to overturn the status quo in those states? Remember that popular vote in a state doesn't always equate to electoral votes. A candidate can lose a state by One Million votes or only 1 vote, yet still lose all the electoral votes in that state. (at least in 47 states he can).

The fact remains that even with the same state-by-state outcome as 2000, the Republicans win by a much larger margin in 2004.

Oh and P.S., since some of you try to see partisan politics in everything, I am not for or against either candidate; I simply thought this was an interesting piece of data.
Ok, IF the states broke the same way as they did in 2000, yes the Republicans would win by a larger margin. I thought that's a given. Populations are shifting away from the NE of the country.
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Old 11-02-04, 12:55 PM
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Hell, if I lived in a blue state, I'd move to a red one, too.

Oh, wait. I do.

Fuck you, Iowa! Nah, I can't give up on 'er yet.

This is a conspiracy, though....giving California ANOTHER electoral vote? Ludicrous!
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Old 11-02-04, 01:24 PM
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um....isn't this something people have mentioned for months?
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Old 11-03-04, 08:36 AM
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Told ya!
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