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Final election assessment and predictions

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Final election assessment and predictions

Old 11-01-04, 01:12 PM
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I can see the election going either way. Neither candidate will win the popular vote by more than 1.5% I have no idea what's going to happen with the EC, except that I think it's possible Kerry will lose the popular vote but win in the EC if he gets OH.
Old 11-01-04, 01:14 PM
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Originally posted by Luc TC
What???????????

Traitor .

I don't see how that is possible. There are a lot of people in Florida who are not polled and this group are more likely be Kerry supporters.

It probably should be taken to the thread about the polls, but who isn't being polled? (I do believe this is specifically addressed in that other thread.)
Old 11-01-04, 01:15 PM
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What is most amazing is that the odds, basically went full circle from early August to today. Current odds:

Bush 5-7
Kerry 6-5


On August 12, they were:
Bush 5-6
Kerry 1-1


At its biggest divergence (around late September), Bush was as low at 2-5 and Kerry was 2-1.
Old 11-01-04, 01:15 PM
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Originally posted by TracerBullet
I can see the election going either way. Neither candidate will win the popular vote by more than 1.5% I have no idea what's going to happen with the EC, except that I think it's possible Kerry will lose the popular vote but win in the EC if he gets OH.


Honestly, that is the one scenario I can't see happening. If Kerry wins the EC, he will have won the popular vote.
Old 11-01-04, 01:16 PM
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Originally posted by Luc TC
What???????????

Traitor .

I don't see how that is possible. There are a lot of people in Florida who are not polled and this group are more likely be Kerry supporters.
I think that the powers in Florida will never let Kerry win the count. Kerry would have to win by a big margin. I am being pessimistic but............
Old 11-01-04, 01:20 PM
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I think that the powers on the other side in Florida will never let a Bush victory be called such no matter how much he wins by. I am being pessimistic but........
Old 11-01-04, 01:21 PM
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I think that the powers in Florida will never let Kerry win the count. Kerry would have to win by a big margin. I am being pessimistic but............
You're also being conspiratorial.

Fact: If Kerry receives more votes than Bush, he will win Florida.

In addition, I don't see Kerry losing the popular vote and winning the EC.
Old 11-01-04, 01:26 PM
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Originally posted by classicman2
They are the least likely to vote - period.
some of us have already voted...even though we had to wait in line 2 hours
Old 11-01-04, 01:34 PM
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Originally posted by bfrank
I think that the powers in Florida will never let Kerry win the count. Kerry would have to win by a big margin. I am being pessimistic but............
Originally posted by General Zod
I think that the powers on the other side in Florida will never let a Bush victory be called such no matter how much he wins by. I am being pessimistic but........
If there is a controversy, I believe bfrank is right. I see your point now.
Old 11-01-04, 01:55 PM
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I'm hoping for a Bush win, but am getting antsy that some of the battleground states will fall to Kerry, and I'll be in a state of depression for the rest of the week, and might have to call in sick to work to take some mental health days off.

Oh well, 28 more hours to go for the east coast polls to close.
Old 11-01-04, 01:58 PM
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Patman


Old 11-01-04, 02:15 PM
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Originally posted by Venusian
some of us have already voted...even though we had to wait in line 2 hours
absentee is the way to go

birrman54
Old 11-01-04, 02:17 PM
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Originally posted by raven56706
reasons please..... why does everyone think Bush will cream kerry in this election
The two most important issues to people this year are the war on terror and Iraq. In polls asking whether people trust Bush or Kerry more to handle those issues, Bush leads by a large percentage.

It won't be a "cream" like a Mondale or Dukakis creaming, but it will be a creaming compared to 2000.
Old 11-01-04, 02:21 PM
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My prediction:

Bush: Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin
Kerry: Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Bush 273-265
Old 11-01-04, 02:24 PM
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My prediction: Kerry wins handily.

It won't be as nearly close as most people think. Kerry will win most of the battleground states including some that were previously a lock for Bush.

Kerry takes: FL, PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA. ME

Bush takes: CO, NM, NH

Biggest upset (out an a limb) - Kerry takes VA.
Old 11-01-04, 02:25 PM
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Originally posted by orangerory


Biggest upset (out an a limb) - Kerry takes VA.

Old 11-01-04, 02:27 PM
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Originally posted by Red Dog
Latest survey shows Bush leads by only 4%.

Keep laughing... Like all the folks who thought a democrat could never win governor in VA...
Old 11-01-04, 02:32 PM
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Originally posted by orangerory
Latest survey shows Bush leads by only 4%.

Keep laughing... Like all the folks who thought a democrat could never win governor in VA...

If there were a lot of folks who said that, they were pretty stupid then considering Dems held the governor's mansion from 1982-1994.

You do know who the last Democratic presidential candidate to win VA was, don't you? What makes you think that John Kerry of all people will be the one to break the streak, considering southern Democrats such as Gore, Clinton, and Carter were not able to do so?
Old 11-01-04, 02:41 PM
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Originally posted by orangerory
Latest survey shows Bush leads by only 4%.

Keep laughing... Like all the folks who thought a democrat could never win governor in VA...
Yes, I'm sure Kerry will take the state that went to Bob "Get out of my chair!" Dole in 96.
Old 11-01-04, 03:03 PM
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Originally posted by orangerory
Keep laughing... Like all the folks who thought a democrat could never win governor in VA...
Two words: Byrd Machine.
Old 11-01-04, 03:07 PM
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Of the battleground states:
Bush wins OH(it is a republican state with republican gov(though a RINO) and a republican legislature)
Bush wins FL
Bush wins NM, CO, NV,IA

Kerry prevails in PA(large union vote), MN, WI.
Old 11-01-04, 03:10 PM
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Originally posted by orangerory
Latest survey shows Bush leads by only 4%.

Keep laughing... Like all the folks who thought a democrat could never win governor in VA...

Not the latest poll that anybody pays any attention to.

Of that variety, the two latest polls show Mr. Bush with a 6 point, and more recently, a 9 point lead.
Old 11-01-04, 03:12 PM
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Originally posted by Pharoh
Not the latest poll that anybody pays any attention to.

Of that variety, the two latest polls show Mr. Bush with a 6 point, and more recently, a 9 point lead.

Yep - the 9% one is the Richmond Times Dispatch. I think Survey USA called a lot of people in northern VA.

Bush won VA in 2000 by around 8 pts. I expect it to be closer this time, but he will still win comfortably - by 6 pts or so.
Old 11-01-04, 03:12 PM
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I think that Kerry will get the popular vote by 2 percent or so, electoral college Kerry 311, Bush 227.

Last edited by cloudnin; 11-01-04 at 03:15 PM.
Old 11-01-04, 03:14 PM
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Originally posted by bhk
Of the battleground states:
Bush wins OH(it is a republican state with republican gov(though a RINO) and a republican legislature)
It's a sad day when a Republican from Ohio named Robert Taft is described as a RINO.

Most Republican governors are pretty moderate. It's hard to be the governor of a large state without being somewhat moderate.

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