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A Glorious New Pork Age

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A Glorious New Pork Age

Old 05-01-12, 12:14 AM
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A Glorious New Pork Age

<img src="http://www.bloomberg.com/image/itTSKerQWIq0.jpg">

Pork prices are down. Any day now, McDonald's. Any day.

<b>Fat Pigs Means Pork Bust as Record Herd Ends Rally: Commodities</b>
By Elizabeth Campbell - May 1, 2012 9:00 AM ET

The heaviest and most numerous U.S. pig population on record and rebounding Chinese output are creating a surplus that is poised to halt a four-year rally in prices. U.S. farmers will raise 117.1 million pigs this year, the most in at least a half century, as world pork output gains 2.7 percent to an all-time high of 104.4 million metric tons, U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates show. <SPAN style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #7fff00">China may produce 690 million hogs, the most since at least 1976. Prices may drop 9.5 percent to 77.75 cents a pound in Chicago by Dec. 31, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.</span>

While Chinese pork imports will drop 14 percent to 650,000 tons this year, shipments will still be the third-highest on record. Futures doubled in the past 30 months, and surging pork costs drove Chinese food-price inflation to 14.8 percent in July, more than twice the average over the past decade, data from the state-owned China Economic Information Network show. <SPAN style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #7fff00">U.S. retail bacon reached a record $4.84 a pound in June, a 34 percent gain in two years. Farmers responded by producing more, and carcass weights reached a 10-year high in April, generating a surplus of meat that will swell global stockpiles to the largest in five years, the USDA estimates.</span>

“There’s plenty of pork,” said John Nalivka, a former USDA economist and the president of Sterling Marketing Inc., an agricultural economic research and advisory company in Vale, Oregon. “We’re not running out of hogs.”

Below High

Prices advanced 1.9 percent to 85.925 cents on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange this year, still 18 percent below the 25- year high of $1.0435 reached in April 2011. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Agriculture Index of eight commodities rose 0.2 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities jumped 9.7 percent. Treasuries returned 0.2 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Hedge funds and other speculators turned bearish on prices in the week ended April 24, for the first time since September 2009, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They hold a net-short position of 772 futures and options, down from a net-long position of 80,349 in October, the data show.

Global pork production will exceed demand by 577,000 tons this year, the most since 1983, bringing stockpiles at the end of the season to 815,000 tons, USDA estimates show. The department raised its forecast for Chinese output by 320,000 tons to 51.6 million tons on April 17, implying a 4.2 percent increase year-on-year, after a 3.1 percent decline in 2011.

China Shipments

While Chinese pork imports will drop 14 percent to 650,000 tons this year, shipments will still be the third-highest on record, USDA data show. The decline in U.S. cargoes to the Asian nation that drove February exports to a seven-month low will most likely be temporary, said Brett Stuart, the co-founder of Global AgriTrends, a Denver-based meat research company.

The U.S. will sell 822 million pounds (373,000 tons) to China this year, compared with 816 million pounds in 2011, when shipments doubled, Global AgriTrends estimates. China imported 146,475 tons of pork in the first quarter, more than twice the amount a year earlier, customs data show.

<SPAN style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #7fff00">The country will consume almost 52 million tons of pork this year, the most since at least 1975, USDA data show.</span> Demand has been increasing by about 1 million tons a year over the past decade, equal to an extra 11 million hogs, “a very big challenge” to meet without imports, Stuart said.

Beef Alternative

U.S. demand may also accelerate as supplies of other meats decline. Beef production will drop 4.4 percent this year after a southern drought shrank the herd to its smallest since 1952, and chicken output will decline 1.8 percent, the USDA estimates. Retail ground-beef prices reached $3.016 a pound in March, the highest since at least 1984, and chicken breasts rose to $2.385 a pound, the most since November 2010, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
The U.S. reported its first case of mad cow disease in six years on April 24, after a dairy cow in California was found with the brain-wasting disease. It was the nation’s fourth instance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and the first since 2006. No meat entered the human food chain, the USDA said.

Cattle futures fell the most allowed by the CME before rallying for the next three days. Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea, the four biggest buyers of U.S. beef, said they won’t halt purchases, indicating no slump in beef sales or a surge in demand for alternative meats. The respondents in the Bloomberg survey on hog prices made few changes to their estimates after the BSE case was announced.

Hog Herd

The U.S. hog herd may get bigger next year as feed costs decline. Corn dropped 1.9 percent in Chicago this year on prospects for U.S. farmers planting the most acres since 1937. December futures, reflecting expectations for supply after the U.S. harvest, are trading at an 18 percent discount to grain for May delivery. Global production will jump 4.2 percent to a record 900 million tons in the next crop year, the London-based International Grains Council predicted April 2.

“It looks like feed costs are going to decline a great deal in the fourth quarter,” said Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri in Columbia who has studied the industry for three decades. “Farmers are likely to respond to that by increasing the sow herd late this year to give us more hogs in 2013, and therefore lower prices.”

U.S. hog farmers will be profitable for a third consecutive year in 2012, encouraging them to expand, said Mark Greenwood, who oversees $1.4 billion in loans and leases to the industry as a vice president at AgStar Financial Services Inc. in Mankato, Minnesota. The average producer will earn about $8 to $12 per hog this year, compared with $15 to $20 last year, he said.

Deli Meats

Commodity costs are “flattening out,” and pork prices “are starting to come down,” Marcel Smits, the chief executive officer of Sara Lee Corp. (SLE), told analysts on a conference call Feb. 2. The Downers Grove, Illinois-based company makes Ball Park frankfurters and deli meats.

The average U.S. hog carcass reached 212.56 pounds (96.4 kilograms) on April 12, the most in USDA data going back a decade. Animals are getting heavier after first-quarter temperatures were the highest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. If animals use less energy to keep warm, they put on more weight.
The USDA is looking for more pork out of the domestic herd because of “increased sow productivity,” the government said on April 17. The average number of pigs saved per litter in the three months ended Feb. 29 was 9.97, a record for the quarter, government data show.

Slowing Demand

The gains are coming at a time when the USDA is forecasting domestic consumption of 8.48 million tons, the second-lowest level in the past decade. Wholesale-pork prices fell to 76.53 cents a pound on April 18, the lowest since December 2010, and 31 percent below the record of $1.1019 reached in August, USDA data show. Retail-bacon prices dropped 5 percent from last year’s record, government data show.

“Domestic demand has been underwhelming,” said Karl Skold, the president of Westside Economics, an Omaha, Nebraska- based food consultant, and a former head of commodity procurement at ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG) “We’ll see a little bit more supply in the fourth quarter, and we’re not going to have quite as rosy demand as the current futures suggest.”

<hr>

So, let's hope for a speedy return of the <a href="http://forum.dvdtalk.com/other-talk/539212-mcrib-back.html">McRib</a>, eh?
Old 05-01-12, 12:27 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

My kids raise them for 4-H and we have one butchered every year. When you consider the bacon, the roasts, the pork chops,, the ham, the ham steaks, the sausage, etc., pork is truly awesome. Ham steaks are amazing.
Old 05-01-12, 01:47 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

A commodity good that goes through price cycles? No fucking way.
Old 05-01-12, 01:53 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Lime green bolding.
Old 05-01-12, 06:16 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Originally Posted by Shazam View Post
A commodity good that goes through price cycles? No fucking way.
Who hurt you inside?
Old 05-01-12, 06:20 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Originally Posted by The Bus View Post
Who hurt you inside?
That was me . Sorry, totally unintentional. Never do it again
Old 05-01-12, 08:08 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Mazel tov!
Old 05-01-12, 09:21 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Since you seem to have so much free time (new threads, etc) why not a new sheep game, eh? EH???
Old 05-01-12, 09:44 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Old 05-01-12, 10:00 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age



"A wonderful, magical animal."
Old 05-01-12, 10:08 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Schweinshaxen for me, please.
Old 05-01-12, 10:39 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

mmm... Chinese pork... makes for great beef:
http://www.chinasmack.com/2011/pictu...into-beef.html
Old 05-01-12, 11:36 AM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Originally Posted by The Bus View Post
Who hurt you inside?
Who the hell do you think? KVRDAVE, of course.
Old 05-01-12, 01:26 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

This would be an entirely different thread without the space in "Porkage."
Old 05-01-12, 05:15 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Originally Posted by drmoze View Post
Schweinshaxen for me, please.
with Sauerkraut and Semmelknoedel!

Oh, and a Weissbier!
Old 05-01-12, 05:29 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


Old 05-01-12, 06:11 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Originally Posted by Shazam View Post
Who the hell do you think? KVRDAVE, of course.
Old 04-04-13, 01:15 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Pork butt! er, pork bump!
P.J. Huffstutter , Reuters
4/4/2013
US meat industry renames cuts; pork chops are now ribeyes


This image released by the National Pork Board shows an example of the updated Uniform Retail Meat Identification Standards (URMIS) label for porterhouse pork chops.

BBQ fans, brace yourselves: "Pork butt" will soon be a thing of the past.

In an effort to boost sales just ahead of the U.S. grilling season, and make shopping at the meat counter a bit easier, the pork and beef industries are retooling more than 350 names of meat cuts to give them more sizzle and consumer appeal.

The revised nomenclature emerged after two years of consumer research, which found that the labels on packages of fresh cuts of pork and beef are confusing to shoppers, said Patrick Fleming, director of retail marketing for trade group National Pork Board.

A stroll down the meat aisle had become baffling for shoppers looking for a steak. When they would see packages of "butler steak" or "beef shoulder top blade steak, boneless, flat iron" - they would walk away with an empty cart, said Trevor Amen, director of market intelligence for the Beef Checkoff Program.

So recently, the National Pork Board and the Beef Checkoff Program, with the blessing of officials with USDA, got the nod to update the Uniform Retail Meat Identification Standards, or URMIS. Though the URMIS system is voluntary, a majority of U.S. food retailers use it.

So pork and beef industry officials say they hope the new names will show up in stores nationwide by this summer's grilling season.

If it does, the lowly "pork chop" will be gone. Instead, grocery retailers could be stocking stacks of "porterhouse chops," "ribeye chops" and "New York chops." The pork butt - which actually comes from shoulder meat - will be called a Boston roast.

"One of our biggest challenges has been the general belief among consumers that a pork chop is a pork chop," said Fleming. "But not all pork chops are equal, and not all pork chops are priced equally."

So much for pork being known as the other white meat--a label the pork industry used for years to lure consumers away from chicken.

In the beef aisle, a boneless shoulder top blade steak will become a flatiron steak, a beef under blade boneless steak will become a Denver Steak. Not all names in the meat counter will change - ground beef will still be ground beef

The new retail names will also come with new labels for retail packages, which will tell consumers what part of the animal's body the cut comes from, as well as include suggested cooking instructions.

This marketing move comes at a challenging time for the nation's livestock sector, which has wrestled with historic high grain prices and devastating droughts.

Overseas demand for U.S. meat has cooled as both Russia and China have concerns about possible traces of the feed additive ractopamine, which is used to make meat leaner. That has protein clogging the nation's supply chain and the supply pork and beef in commercial freezers hit a record high for the month of February, according to Agriculture Department data.

Also domestic sales have been slow as the relatively cool spring has quashed consumer interest in breaking out the backyard grill.

While fresh beef and pork cuts have official names that are approved by USDA, compliance with using those naming conventions is voluntary for the industry, said Sam Jones-Ellard, spokesman for USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service.

"There won't be any changes to our naming conventions, but we're supportive of this," Jones-Ellard said. "Anything that simplifies the names of cuts of meat is a good thing for consumers."

At least one section of the meat department will stay the same: A spokesman for the National Chicken Council said Wednesday that no such plans are in place to change the names of chicken cuts. A chicken breast, the official said, will remain a breast.

Copyright 2013 Thomson Reuters.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/us-m...eyes-1C9213219

pork butt
Old 04-05-13, 01:17 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

I just had pork butt sliders recently.

And, in sadder news:

<img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/03/12/world/SHANGHAI/SHANGHAI-articleLarge.jpg">
Old 04-05-13, 01:29 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Great, so now I won't know what the fuck I'm buying.
Old 04-05-13, 01:39 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Old 04-05-13, 01:51 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age

Sorry, but "I'm going to Boston your roast" just doesn't sound as sexy.
Old 04-05-13, 03:05 PM
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Re: A Glorious New Pork Age



Looks like I picked the right week to buy a smoker.

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