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Will CDs go away?

Old 08-04-03, 10:59 AM
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Will CDs go away?

With MP3's being so popular, and all of these online
music stores like iTunes, and buymusic, and I am sure
many more on the way, do you think the cd format
will disappear? Will you still be able to purchase cds
at B&M store?

I personally Like owning the real product with the
case and cover and linear notes.


Share your predictions.
Old 08-04-03, 11:18 AM
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Re: Will CDs go away?

Originally posted by josuff247
I personally Like owning the real product with the
case and cover and linear notes.
Me too.

I think that within the next decade, CDs will be phased out in favor of SACD or DVD-A.
Old 08-04-03, 12:25 PM
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I predict that in the near future, the recording industry will attempt to push a new format on the consumer.

Expect a "next generation" CD and CD player with heavy DRM built into it, and no backward compatability with the old CD format. Meaning you won't be able to play any of your CDs on it because they don't have the proper copyright/DRM flags on them, and you won't be able to make any kind of copy of your NGDCs either.

It will also give them a good excuse to jack the prices up by another five dollars.

It's debatable whether it will succeed, but mark my words, they will try.
Old 08-04-03, 01:06 PM
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I really hope cds never disappear to MP3s. I know everyone thinks they are cd quality but I really think I hear a difference. I have a real high end car stereo system and I can always hear the difference between an MP3 and the real cd.
Old 08-04-03, 01:09 PM
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Originally posted by Cyberock
I really hope cds never disappear to MP3s. I know everyone thinks they are cd quality but I really think I hear a difference. I have a real high end car stereo system and I can always hear the difference between an MP3 and the real cd.
I feel the same as you. I absolutely HATE the quality of MP3's, which is why I dont download music.
Old 08-04-03, 01:16 PM
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Re: Re: Will CDs go away?

Originally posted by Brain Stew
Me too.

I think that within the next decade, CDs will be phased out in favor of SACD or DVD-A.
i don't think so. nothing has been able to beat the all around feasibility of a CD. SACDs and DVD-As are just better sounding, not an actual different medium.
Old 08-04-03, 03:54 PM
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The next generation of music Cd's, and movie DVD's, will be perishable, and simply be usable, after a limited amount of time, then be unable to be played.

With this the price, will be reduced considerably, and more in line with actual CD production costs.

Here's an article, courtesy of newyorktimes.com....

DVD's Meant for Buying but Not for Keeping

Ann Johansson for The New York Times


By ERIC A. TAUB

LOS ANGELES, July 20 Video rental stores want customers to return their movies, they just do not want them to do so too quickly.

When tapes and DVD's are returned after the due date, late fees often double the cost of a rental highly annoying to consumers while providing no additional revenue to the studios that make the movies.

To help consumers avoid those fees, while trying to develop new revenue, the Walt Disney Company's home video division plans to test market a new type of DVD that will be priced about the same as a rental but never needs to be returned because it stops working after a fixed period of time.

It is an experiment that will be closely watched in Hollywood, where the home video market last year represented nearly 59 percent of the film industry's $17.38 billion in North American revenue, according to Adams Media Research. Late fees are a lucrative source of additional income for Blockbuster Inc., which is a unit of Viacom Inc., and its competitors. Typically, the late fees account for more than 10 percent of the gross rental revenue at most outlets, according to the Video Software Dealers Association.

But, those extra fees do little or nothing to bolster the bottom lines of the film studios, which usually make most of their rental revenue from the initial sale of VHS and DVD copies to retail outlets. The test, by Disney's Buena Vista Home Entertainment could be a way to change that.

Set to roll out in September with eight titles in four markets, Disney's new EZ-D DVD self-destructs 48 hours after the purchaser opens the special airtight package. The disc is composed of a Lexan resin co-polymer developed by GE Plastics. The General Electric Company owns a minority stake in Flexplay Technologies, the company that owns the underlying process and has licensed it to Disney.

Once the product is exposed to the elements, a chemical clock starts ticking, turning the disc black and making it unreadable by a DVD player's laser after the designated time has elapsed. Until that happens, the disc can be played as often as desired. Employing a chemical rather than software process to disable the disc is meant to ensure that the process will work with any DVD player. And like any standard DVD, the discs can have software copyright protection that would deter a user from copying them onto the hard drive of a computer or onto a blank DVD that would not self-destruct.

Disney hopes that the purchase price of $5 to $7 will be close enough to the cost of a typical DVD rental that many customers will consider it an easy impulse buy.

Disney will be the first studio to license EZ-D from Flexplay. Among the other video leaders, the home-video divisions of Paramount, Sony and Warner Brothers declined to comment on their possible interest in the technology.

Convenience will attract consumers to the concept, the chief executive of Flexplay, Alan Blaustein, said. "With EZ-D, we are taking late fees and the video return process out of the equation."

A limited-play DVD service has been tried before in 1998 and it failed. But, EZ-D proponents argue that this time will be different. The DVD is now more popular and widely understood. That lends support to EZ-D discs because they will play on a standard DVD machine. To make them readily accessible, Disney plans on selling them in nontraditional outlets not usually associated with video sales or rentals, like convenience stores and gas stations. By sidestepping video rental outlets, Disney will be able to eliminate the middleman and keep a higher percentage of each disc's revenue.

At the same time, Disney wants to make sure that its EZ-D sales do not reduce rental profits. So the EZ-D titles will not be available until six weeks after the film is first released in standard video rental stores. To further differentiate the two products, the self-destructing versions will contain the movie but not any of the additional features that helped make the DVD format so popular, like missing scenes and director's commentaries.

There is nothing magical about the 48-hour life span of the disc. The manufacturing process can be adjusted so that the disc will expire anywhere from 8 to 60 hours after opening the wrapper. And enterprising consumers may find that they can extend the life even further. Staff members of New Scientist, a British publication, were able to slow down the chemical process and keep an opened EZ-D disc in a playable state for at least 96 hours by placing it in a sealed container and storing it in the refrigerator.

While experts say that the technology is intriguing, it remains an open question whether a self-destructing DVD will interest consumers who normally expect that any purchase of a physical object is theirs to use forever.

The first hurdle could be educating consumers. Take Netflix Inc., a successful Internet company that offers $20 monthly subscriptions that allow consumers to rent as many DVD's as they want for as long as they want but are not allowed to keep more than three at any time. Executives at the company, which has 1.2 million subscribers, say that just explaining to potential customers how the business works has been a struggle.

"Our biggest expenditure is getting people to understand our system of a fixed-fee subscription rental without late charges," said Ted Sarandos, Netflix's vice president for content and acquisition. "The studios underestimate how difficult it is to change consumer behavior."

Blockbuster is not threatened by the introduction of EZ-D's. "We don't see it going anywhere," said Karen Raskopf, the company's senior vice president for corporate communications. "Customers can now buy a used DVD from us that plays forever and costs just a few dollars more than an EZ-D."

As a response to consumer antipathy toward late fees, Blockbuster is testing a Netflix-like subscription service, called the Freedom Pass, in 700 stores.

Last month, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. also started an online DVD rental service to compete with Netflix.

Adi Kishore, an analyst with The Yankee Group, agrees that the disposable DVD concept faces a rough road toward acceptance. "When people think about getting a movie," Mr. Kishore said, "they think about going to Blockbuster, not 7-Eleven. And the overall mechanics of getting an EZ-D title are not that much easier than going to Blockbuster."

He argues that the idea may create a big splash initially, but that it may not last. "People will snap this up once," he said. "It will be a great novelty product."

It is also unknown if consumers will find a 48-hour viewing period sufficient. Those who typically watch a film over several days, catching a few scenes here and there, will be out of luck with EZ-D. Even if people intellectually understand the concept, said Thomas Wolzien, senior media analyst for Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, "when your ability to play it disappears after 48 hours, you are going to feel as if someone robbed you."

But Mr. Blaustein of Flexplay argues that the 48-hour period will not be a serious impediment. According to company research, he said, "well over 90 percent of DVD viewers watch an entire film in one sitting."

If the EZ-D disc is a success, its detractors say, expect to see an environmental mess, as millions of now useless discs clog the landfills with nonbiodegradable polymers. To counter these concerns, Flexplay has agreed to a partnership with a national recycler to collect used discs.

Even if the discs are not recycled, single-use disposable DVD's will result in net energy savings, according to a study conducted by Jonathan Koomey, staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. "The solid waste impacts may be more than completely offset by the gasoline saved from avoided trips to the video store. Gasoline savings could be 7.5 to 20 times larger than the increase in solid waste," Mr. Koomey said in an e-mail message.

Mr. Blaustein of Flexplay sees a wide range of other applications for its time-limited DVD technology. Screening cassettes of new films, review copies of CD's, or expensive technical catalogs would all be less likely to be pirated if they stopped working shortly after use.

Based on recent comments made by Michael D. Eisner, Disney's chairman and chief executive, those other markets may prove to be important revenue sources for Flexplay.

Speaking at a Sanford C. Bernstein conference last month in New York, Mr. Eisner indicated that he expected the EZ-D test to be short-lived.

"I think it probably won't work," he said. "I think it's going to boomerang on us, but it's a test."

Those backing the Flexplay effort say that Mr. Eisner is being too pessimistic and that consumers will fall in love with the EZ-D idea once they are see it.

"You want to go on vacation or something, you buy five of these and throw them in the trunk," said Robert Wright, the chairman of G.E.'s NBC unit.
Old 08-04-03, 04:10 PM
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Originally posted by MJKTool
I feel the same as you. I absolutely HATE the quality of MP3's, which is why I dont download music.

My sentiments exactly. People think I'm nuts because I can tell the difference between a 320kbps encoded MP3 and a cd. This is also the reason I download very infrequently. Usually only to get a small taste of something I want to hear, then I buy it (if it's cheap.)
Old 08-04-03, 04:24 PM
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Originally posted by mikenyc
The next generation of music Cd's, and movie DVD's, will be perishable, and simply be usable, after a limited amount of time, then be unable to be played.

With this the price, will be reduced considerably, and more in line with actual CD production costs.

Here's an article, courtesy of newyorktimes.com....

DVD's Meant for Buying but Not for Keeping

This did not work with Divx, and it will not work for music. When will the recording industry stop trying to screw the consumer? And please do not start on the same old download, pirate houlier than thou crap.
Old 08-04-03, 05:34 PM
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Originally posted by Cusm
This did not work with Divx, and it will not work for music. When will the recording industry stop trying to screw the consumer? And please do not start on the same old download, pirate houlier than thou crap.

It already works.

It comes down to "educating consumers", like the article says. Of course, THIS MEANS, "this is the way it's going to be, period".

That Disney has developed this, also should NOT be underestimated, or lost on the consumer, comparing it with other failed media technologies. They pushed through the copyright law revision, with ease. This is part of a strategy, not a pipe dream.

Last edited by mikenyc; 08-04-03 at 05:36 PM.
Old 08-04-03, 08:41 PM
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I'm skeptical about the EZ-D format for this simple reason. When I buy a DVD outright, whatever the film, I don't want anyone( including Disney) trying to take it away from you. I think alot of people feel the same way. This will look like a scam to the public. Alot of people are going to say "They're trying to get me to buy the same thing over and over". And you know what, to a certain degree they are right.

But back to CD's. I don't think the CD will be phased out, but I do think has to happen is that the music industry has to adapt itself to what's going on ( fat chance of that happening). That means changing the business model that has the labels paying only pennies in royalties per song and actually giving the artist a stake in the sales. I don't see DVD auido or SACD being a big factor in the immediate future. People have a hard time purchasing CD's for $17.99, now you want to charge me five dollars more for marginally better audio that I can only tell the difference if I had a pair of premium speakers? Sorry I don't see that happening.
Old 08-04-03, 08:59 PM
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I have 2 Pioneer F-1007 300 filled with CD, and I just bought a box set of
Patsy Cline favorites. I hope they will be arouund for a long time, CD are too precious for me with all the music featured in movies, I listen to them while surfing the net all the time.
Old 08-04-03, 10:38 PM
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I think it will take something remarkable for CDs to go away.

CDs did away with cassettes, IMO, not because of better sound quality, but because of the ability to jump right to any song (without the guess work of doing so on records).

I really can't see MP3's taking over. It's just no the same as ownign the CD, having the liner notest, etc. Not to mention the record companies and a lot of bands are opposed to them. Plus it kills the concept of an album, which is the key to being a good band IMO. Lots of people can right a good song (hence the tons of one hit wonders), it takes a lot more to make a great album.
Old 08-05-03, 09:21 PM
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Originally posted by Cyberock
I really hope cds never disappear to MP3s. I know everyone thinks they are cd quality but I really think I hear a difference. I have a real high end car stereo system and I can always hear the difference between an MP3 and the real cd.
No joke, MP3 is quite poor in comparison. I have a JBL Pro Series PA system in my house with a Crown powered sub. Even with a "good" MP3, the difference is quite obvious, especially the low end.
Jon
Old 08-05-03, 11:34 PM
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the RIAA needs to stop suing people if they want to launch something new. It won't matter what they introduce, they piss off enough people they won't have a market for a new format. period.

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