I think it's safe to say at least Avatar's global box office record at least will hold. None of the recent SW movies were able to get into the stratosphere of extreme international success (Episode 1 is the highest grossing at just over $1B, or #20 of all time). No movie has even come close to the 1-2 punch from James Cameron in the race for pounds, euros, & renminbi.

I like reading Coli's sober assessments and tend to agree with him. I retired recently so I'm not talking to my younger co-workers anymore so I can't judge the buzz for TFA based on their conversations. I'm sure there are many STAR WARS fanboys among them, although they tend to be more excited by superhero movies and TV shows. Putting them aside, I remember the word-of-mouth for the original and how it drove tons of people to the theaters to see SW even if they weren't fans of the genre. Like Coli says, it became a must-see movie. I don't think too many of my peers who went to the original will be going to this one. Granted, we're all a lot older now (and we were adults back then also, just 38 years younger than we are now), so this kind of thing doesn't excite us as much. Like Coli says, it's gotta hit the younger crowd the way the original did in 1977, which seems like a pretty tall order. I, for one, won't be going. I imagine my daughter and nephews will (all born around the time of RETURN OF THE JEDI or after it) and I'll get their reports on it. One of my nephews, in fact, was born after my brother and his wife went to see a reissue of STAR WARS. They went to the hospital right afterwards.

I dunno. I think that Star Wars has a fairly wide appeal beyond just fanboys. Also this film went from being pretty under the radar with a lot of people to huge hype with a bunch of people just since September. I think it'll do well. It may not break Avatar's record but I think it'll do big business.

The Superman franchise doesn't even come close to the Star Wars franchise.

This is actually pretty tough to gauge. I can see it making something in the $500s, and yet I can totally see it breaking all the records.

so, I'll guess anywhere between $400-$800 million

They're already lining up at the Chinese on Hollywood Boulevard:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/09/mo...ef=todayspaper

ya'll are crazy. There is now way this comes close to making $400M

In this day and age... what is the point? It's just dumb.

I saw some stories about this. I'm not sure it applies to the line in the story, but other lines are being done to raise money for various charities.

They'd do better having women in Leia bikinis standing out front with a collection tin.

History suggests otherwise (especially the part about us being crazy): The Phantom Menace pulled in $431M and change domestically in its initial run. This was back in 1999 before every single multiplex had 3D, Ultra AVX, and D-boxes to help jack up ticket prices. There was also the fact that TPM was an absolute atrocity, but fans still handed over their hard-earned cash because it was the first new Star Wars film in 16 years. History is set to repeat itself (well, not the part about the new movie being an atrocity, I hope).

I'm just going to leave it at that in case you're trolling.


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'I, for one, think it's great that Justin Lin is directing the new Star Trek film. I've always wanted to see how fast a tricked out Enterprise could go.' -unknown Netizen

I'm guessing somewhere at $250m or above. Sounds reasonable enough.

It'll be near that on opening weekend, but since this isn't the Price Is Right, you win!

Oh right, this was for total domestic take. I'm not too ballsay to guess the total box office domestically; I'm more comfortable with first weekend take.

Total Domestic Box Office?

$675 Million.

Of course, if it's halfway as good as we hope it is it could easily top $800 Million. So many people will watch this thing 8-10 times that they'll push it into outer orbit!

I probably should have voted for the biggest ever, but it's going to be over $600 Million for sure. MASSIVE hit. This is going to be fun to watch just the media hype and the box office stories.

It will feel like 1977 all over again for me...

Didn't realize Jurassic World got up to 650m... yeah this will do at least that. Higher depends on how well received the film is... I could see 800+. Worldwide the prequels weren't huge overseas, but that was 10+yrs ago when the market wasn't nearly what is today...it should join the 1B club now.

Adjusted domestic:
Titanic 1.129B
Avatar 811m
TPM 753m

Anecdotally, a majority of the 12 people in my office have either never seen Star Wars or watched it once or twice as a kid and that was that. Most of them are interested in the new one, to the point that they were asking me to explain what happened in the previous movies. We all work for a talk show and we're actually going to have our movie critic do a "Star Wars 101" segment for our show this week.

I think there are more than just fans interested in this one.

It still blows my mind that Avatar did as good as it did. That movie was average at best and one of Cameron's worst. I know that the 3D was the biggest draw but I even thought that was middle of the road too. I'm just surprised it lasted beyond opening weekend - I would have thought WOM would have killed that one right quick.

Avatar, despite your opinion of the movie, had great word of mouth.

Not everybody likes every movie. I don't find most of the highest grossing movies all that appealing, ie: The two Avengers movies, Avatar, Jurassic World, Shrek 2, etc; were more or less average big budget flicks - but they have content that makes them more appealing to certain audiences. Avatar had a fully realized alternate planet, Avengers had a lot of popular characters, Jurassic World had the park actually opening, etc;

People simply like to see something they haven't seen.

Which again, I can't believe at all. Even when there are popular movies I don't particularly like I can usually see the appeal. There was nothing interesting about Avatar. And I doubt a vast majority of people who have seen the movie can name the planet they were on or the name of the species' they were inhabiting, let alone ANY of the character names. That movie is the pinnacle of "pretty but forgettable" to me.

I remember the species was the Na'vi and the planet was Pandora, but I am whiffing on any character names--unless Sam Worthington went by Sam Worthington in the film.

I thought Avatar was kind of fun, but it does blow my mind that it was as big of a hit as it was. What blows my mind even more is that there is going to be an Avatar World at Disney World in the Animal Kingdom. Like you said, it was forgettable. I could see where it would make a nice attraction (the Waterworld ride was very popular despite the film underperforming) but it doesn't strike me as something that would be a big draw on its own like say Harry Potter.

I know tons of passionate Game of Thrones fans who can't name anyone or anything other than Jon Snow and Dany. Even Obama admits he's like that.

Avatar made a ton of money, eclipsing everything before it and since. Obviously tons of people saw it and told their friends they had to see it.

There was Sarge, crippled dude that was in other movies, "Get away from her you BITCH!" and Vulcan cum guzzler.

The multiplex near me is ONLY showing The Force Awakens! That's right, eight screens of Force Awakens and nothing else. I've never seen that happen ever in my whole life. Not for the Prequels, not for Avatar, nothing. Anyone else seen this in their area?

What will be interesting to me is not how big Star Wars opens, but how small second place is going to be when virtually all screens are only showing one movie.

I just checked the theaters I'll be watching FA on opening weekend: One is showing Sisters and the Chipmunks movie on one screen each with the rest FA. The second is showing only Sisters on one screen and FA. The third is showing only FA.

I've NEVER seen that before. Aren't there some sort of contractual obligations to other movies??