Originally Posted by Deadline

After Earth, The Lone Ranger, R.I.P.D., and World War Z are among the “most notable candidates” to join the ranks of “several high profile failures” from the major studios that Cowen and Co’s Doug Creutz predicts this morning. He worries Summer 2013 has “the most crowded release slate in recent memory” and could produce at least 8 underperformers. Creutz has been making these domestic predictions for 5 of the last seven years. Here is his latest studio-by-studio prognostications:

Disney is at risk, Creutz says. Although he agrees Iron Man 3 will be a hit and projects domestic box office of $350M, and Pixar’s Monsters University should do well to the tune of $250M. If Lone Ranger bombs it could “sustain the perception that Disney’s film studio has some serious problems away from the Marvel-Pixar axis.” He expects Lone Ranger to generate $120M domestically but says it’s “a strong contender for an early write-down.” Westerns typically don’t play well overseas, he notes, recalling how even Will Smith’s star power couldn’t save 1999′s Wild, Wild West.

The analyst also forecasts Paramount is “likely to have a one-up-one-down summer” with Star Trek Into The Darkness probably making $250M and World War Z nowhere near that. He predicts just $85M for World War Z, which “had a troubled production” forcing a delay from the original December 2012 release date. It’s also up against Man Of Steel, and he says ”buzz has been elusive for the film, as we think audience attention has been drawn to more well-known properties”. The analyst thinks this makes the zombie thriller “another likely candidate for a big write-down”.

Sony “has a lot riding on this summer’s results” but could be disappointed, Creutz says. After Earth ($80M) has the benefit of starring Will Smith, but the analyst notes director M. Knight Shyamalan “has had a string of box office misfires and outright disasters” including The Last Airbender. Meanwhile This Is The End ($75M) is one of the four adult comedies that has a shot at breaking out, but Creutz says ”the trailers are more odd than funny.” White House Down ($90M) may suffer because the premise — described as Die Hard at the White House — “feels a bit stale” after following several similar films. He says Grown Ups 2 ($125M) has some of comedy’s “most dependable box office stars” — Adam Sandler, Kevin James, David Spade, and Chris Rock — so the analyst gives it an edge vs the other adult comedies. And he warns that Smurfs 2 ($80M) “is coming at the tail end of a summer season that will likely already have seen four other higher quality animated films.”

Universal has “sure fire hits” with Fast & Furious 6 ($200M), and Despicable Me 2 ($250M), but Creutz is worried about R.I.P.D. ($50M). Although “anything can happen,” it has had “significant problems in production” and “appears to be an attempt to mimic the action-comedy success of Men In Black” and looks like “an enormous long shot.”

Fox is “in OK shape,” Creutz says. He believes toon Epic could see $100M domestically, but could miss the top 12 due to competition from Iron Man and Star Trek 2. Laugher The Internship ($70M) has a shot but the analyst says only one adult comedy is likely to be in the top dozen. The Heat ($70M) is one of the others, and has “a bit less star power.” And The Wolverine ($190M) is “likely to make the winner’s circle” if there isn’t “serious audience fatigue around auction films” in late July.

Creutz says Warner Bros is “best positioned of all the major studios” to have a strong summer and predicts $220M for successful Superman reboot Man Of Steel. He predicts The Great Gatsby could generate $150M domestically and “might” make the Top 12 as “one of the few films this summer not directed at kids or young men.” He thinks The Hangover Part III will gross $225M. He expects Pacific Rim to hit $150M, although he warned that audiences “might be relatively tired of action fare” by mid-July.

Creutz says Lionsgate is making “a bit of a strategic mistake” with Red 2 ($75M). Although the original movie in 2010 was a surprise hit, the sequel is “up against much higher-budget summer action fare” and will “probably mark the end of the franchise.” No matter: he says the film should do “tolerably well,” and points out Lionsgate has Catching Fire and Ender’s Game this fall.

He notes how DreamWorks Animation’s one entry, Turbo ($171M), is an event film and characterizes the studio as “regaining momentum” with the success of The Croods. But he worries the new toon also faces too much competition and will be sandwiched between Epic and Sony’s Smurfs 2.

Looking at data going back to 2001, the analyst notes that 12 films released from May through July typically account for 75% of the summer box office — which he expects will hit $3.65B, “essentially flat with 2012.” And the breakdown by genre has been consistent: Action/adventure films haven’t accounted for more than seven of the top 12, and no more than three animated films joined the group. That’s a problem. Studios have spent $100M+ apiece on 12 action/adventure spectacles (he includes Lionsgate’s Red 2 although it’s “arguably on the border” of qualifying) and five animated films for this summer. If history is a guide, ”at most nine of these are likely to achieve a level of box office success justifying their cost.”

Originally Posted by RichC2 (Post 11677254)

Lone Ranger will be the surprise of the summer and draw $225m.

Originally Posted by cruzness (Post 11677138)

Pacific Rim - will break 300 million and have a huge world wide take 950 million. beginning of a trend?

Originally Posted by dan30oly (Post 11772873)

BoxOfficeMojo seems to have a different 2013 ranking to yours (unless you had just limited yours to summer releases).

Originally Posted by The Antipodean (Post 11772887)

Yes, I used BOM's Summer list only as that's what this thread is titled about, not the year overall...

Originally Posted by JumpCutz (Post 11772880)

Sorry to single you out RichC2, but it had to be done. -wink-

Originally Posted by richc2 (Post 11677254)

lone ranger will be the surprise of the summer and draw $225m.

Originally Posted by resinrats (Post 11798602)

To be fair, a few of those movies are still in the theater.

Originally Posted by sauce07 (Post 11798508)

So now that the box office season is wrapping up, here's how I think everything came out.

Mega Hit (400+ mil)
Iron Man 3 - $407 mm $1.2 billion

Genuine Hit
Despicable Me 2 - $340 mm $750 mm
Man of Steel - $288 mm $648 mm
Monsters University - $260 mm $637 mm
Fast & Furious 6 - $238 mm $782 mm
World War Z - $197 mm $502 mm
The Heat - $153 mm $198 mm
The Great Gatsby - $144 mm $330 mm
Grown Ups 2 - $124 mm $154 mm
Now You See Me - $115 $255 mm
This is the End - $96 mm $111 mm

Should’ve Done Better
Star Trek Into Darkness - $226 mm $452 mm
The Wolverine - $113 mm $307 mm
Pacific Rim - $97 mm $344 mm

Break Even
The Hangover III - $112 mm $350 mm
Epic - $107 mm $249 mm

The little Indie That Could
The Conjuring - $121 mm $168 mm
The Way, Way Back - $16 mm n/a

Bomb
The Lone Ranger - $87 mm $196 mm
Turbo - $75 mm $136 mm
White House Down - $71 mm $125 mm
After Earth - $60 mm $244 mm
Red 2 - $49 mm $93 mm
Smurfs 2 - $48 mm $157 mm
The Internship - $44 mm $75 mm
R.I.P.D. - $32 mm $56 mm

Originally Posted by TomOpus (Post 11798623)

I always like to look at worldwide box office to give a more accurate take on how well a movie has done. As one can see, overseas box office really really adds to the overall tally for a movie.

Originally Posted by Barth (Post 11649657)

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say World War Z is going to be a hit. It won't make back its budget but will be popular at the box office. Fast and Furious will do well also.
Man of Steel, After Earth, White House Down, Lone Ranger, and Grown Ups2 will dissapoint.
Hangover 3 is a wild card. Might do well but it all depends on the timing of release.
Just like any of these, release timing is critical, to many action movies released at the same time is bad, to many R rated movies on the same weekend is bad, and so on.

Originally Posted by Shannon Nutt (Post 11799181)

This is true, but it's also true that when it comes to sequels, studios still - for the most part - pay much more attention to the domestic draw (for whatever reason).

Originally Posted by sauce07 (Post 11798508)

So now that the box office season is wrapping up, here's how I think everything came out.

Mega Hit (400+ mil)
Iron Man 3 - $407 mm

Genuine Hit
Despicable Me 2 - $340 mm
Man of Steel - $288 mm
Monsters University - $260 mm
Fast & Furious 6 - $238 mm
World War Z - $197 mm
The Heat - $153 mm
The Great Gatsby - $144 mm
Grown Ups 2 - $124 mm
Now You See Me - $115
This is the End - $96 mm

Should’ve Done Better
Star Trek Into Darkness - $226 mm
The Wolverine - $113 mm
Pacific Rim - $97 mm
Elysium

Break Even
The Hangover III - $112 mm
Epic - $107 mm

The little Indie That Could
The Conjuring - $121 mm
The Way, Way Back - $16 mm

Bomb
The Lone Ranger - $87 mm
Turbo - $75 mm
White House Down - $71 mm
After Earth - $60 mm
Red 2 - $49 mm
Smurfs 2 - $48 mm
The Internship - $44 mm
R.I.P.D. - $32 mm