EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: 'Kung Fu Panda' with $17.75M Friday and Headed for $55M!; 'Zohan' Meets Expectations with $13.25M Friday & $36.25M Opening; 'Sex & The City' #3 Friday, But In A Virtual Dead Heat With 'Indy 4' For The Weekend!
by Steve Mason
FRIDAY 10:00 p.m. (Pacific): Dreamworks Animation will likely wrap up the weekend with its All-Time 3rd-Best Opening with Kung Fu Panda (Paramount). The first big animated movie of the summer has grabbed an estimated $17.75M on Friday, which will likely translate to about $55M for the 3-day. That opening would place it behind only Dreamworks' Shrek 2 and Shrek The Third.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR DREAMWORKS ANIMATION
1. Shrek The Third - $121.6M
2. Shrek 2 - $108M
3. Kung Fu Panda - $55M (estimated)
4. Shark Tale - $47.6M
5. Madagascar - $47.2M
6. Shrek - $42.3M
7. Over the Hedge - $38.5M
8. Bee Movie - $38M
9. Chicken Run - $17.5M
10. Antz - $17.1M

Even more impressive for Kung Fu Panda, featuring the voices of Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Lucy Liu and David Cross, is its standing among the All-Time Best Openings for Animated Non-Sequels. Panda compares favorably to The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc. and Cars, and it will likely finish stronger than last year's Pixar offering Ratatouille.


ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR A NON-SEQUEL ANIMATED FILM
1. The Incredibles - $70.46M
2. Finding Nemo - $70.25M
3. Monsters, Inc. - $62.57M
4. Cars - $60.11M
5. Kung Fu Panda - $55M (estimated)
6. Ratatouille - $47.02M
7. Shrek - $42.34M
8. Happy Feet - $41.53M
9. Madagascar - $47.22M
10. Ice Age - $46.31M

Meanwhile, You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) has done exactly what a summer Adam Sandler comedy is supposed to do. The zany story of an Israeli special ops officer who chucks it all to become a hairdresser in America has scored a solid $13.25M and a probably $36.25M opening. That is slightly stronger than last July's I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry at $34.23M and a tick behind 2006's Click at $40M.

Sex & The City (Warner Bros) is holding up better than some have forecasted. Carrie Bradshaw & friends delivered $5M+ on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and almost $5M yesterday, and it will post an estimated $7.8M Friday good for 3rd place. Indiana Jones & The Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) added $6.5M for the #4 spot on Friday. These 2 wildly different films are headed for a photo finish for the weekend. I am giving the nod to Indy 4, but it will be very close. Regardless of the order of finish, Sex & The City will blow past $100M in the US by Monday morning, while IJ4 should $250M domestic.

Rogue's The Strangers scared up another $3M on Friday, and the Liv Tyler-Scott Speedman slasher pic should wrap the weekend with $9.1M or so and a new cume of $37M+. Marvel's unstoppable Iron Man (Paramount) is slowing a bit at #6 with $2.2M on Friday and a likely $8M for the frame. Robert Downey Jr.'s superhero debut will have banked about $290M by Monday.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks) - $55 million, $13,369 PTA, $55 million cume
2. You Don’t Mess with the Zohan (Sony) - $36.25 million, $10,471 PTA, $36.25 million cume
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $23.75 million, $5,668 PTA, $253.97 million cume
4. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $23.5 million, $7,068 PTA $101.48 million cume
5. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $9.1 million, $3,674 PTA, $37.45 million cume
6. Iron Man (Paramount) — $8 million, $2,729 PTA, $289.37 million cume
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $6.52 million, $2,129 PTA, $126.84 million cume
8. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $3.9 million, $1,651 PTA, $72.73 million cume
9. Baby Mama (Universal) — $1.3 million, $1,419 PTA, $58.43 million cume
10. Made of Honor (Sony) — $1.24 million, $1,676 PTA, $45.12 million cume
11. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) — $924,000, $1,081 PTA, $42.57 million cume
12. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) — $725,000, $1,640 PTA, $61.79 million cume

Boxoffice Prophets has a higher Friday estimate for Kung Fu Panda of $20.3 million.

Yeah, I see a $20 million estimate for Panda on Box Office Mojo, as well.

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Rank* Title (Click to view chart) Friday 6/6 (Estimates) Saturday 6/7 Sunday 6/8 Monday 6/9 1 KUNG FU PANDA Paramount (DreamWorks) 4,114 $20,000,000 -- / $4,861 <nobr>$20,000,000 / 1</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 2 YOU DON'T MESS WITH THE ZOHAN Sony / Columbia 3,462 $14,850,000 -- / $4,289 <nobr>$14,850,000 / 1</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 3 SEX AND THE CITY New Line 3,325 $7,300,000 +53.5% / $2,195 <nobr>$85,259,000 / 8</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 4 INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL Paramount 4,190 $6,540,000 +83.9% / $1,561 <nobr>$236,761,000 / 16</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 5 THE STRANGERS Rogue Pictures 2,477 $3,100,000 +99.7% / $1,252 <nobr>$31,457,000 / 8</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 6 IRON MAN Paramount 2,931 $2,160,000 +63.1% / $737 <nobr>$283,530,201 / 36</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 7 THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: PRINCE CASPIAN Buena Vista 3,065 $1,675,000 +30.3% / $546 <nobr>$121,993,000 / 22</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 8 WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS Fox 2,366 $1,140,000 +55.7% / $482 <nobr>$69,970,000 / 29</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 9 BABY MAMA Universal 922 $267,000 +3.5% / $290 <nobr>$57,391,000 / 43</nobr> N/A N/A N/A 10 MADE OF HONOR Sony / Columbia 740 $263,000 -1.5% / $355 <nobr>$44,148,000 / 36</nobr> N/A N/A N/A - - N/A N/A N/A N/A
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* Ranked by selected day. Click on the day at the top of the chart to sort by that day.




Pretty strong weekend overall.

Hey, look at that. I was right with my You Don't Mess With the Zohan prediction! I said $35-38 million, which is on par with pretty much every other Sandler film.

I estimated Kung Fu Panda at $50-52 million and depending on how it does today, I might be pretty close to that.

I also estimated The Strangers at $9 million and it looks like it'll do $8 this weekend.

However, way off course with my Sex and the City and Indiana Jones estimates. I had Sex at $30 million and Indiana Jones at $25.

All I have to say for KFP numbers is "kadoosh!"

Hey, you just said douche!

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N Kung Fu Panda P/DW $60,000,000 - 4,114 - $14,584 $60,000,000 - 1
2 N You Don't Mess with the Zohan Sony $40,000,000 - 3,462 - $11,554 $40,000,000 $90 1
3 2 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $22,805,000 -49.0% 4,190 -74 $5,442 $253,026,000 $185 3
4 1 Sex and the City NL $21,310,000 -62.6% 3,325 +40 $6,409 $99,269,000 $65 2
5 3 The Strangers Rog. $9,289,000 -55.8% 2,477 +11 $3,750 $37,646,000 $9 2
6 4 Iron Man Par. $7,522,000 -44.5% 2,931 -719 $2,566 $288,893,000 $140 6
7 5 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian BV $5,527,000 -56.5% 3,065 -736 $1,803 $125,846,000 $200 4
8 6 What Happens in Vegas Fox $3,400,000 -49.1% 2,366 -720 $1,437 $72,230,000 $35 5
9 8 Baby Mama Uni. $779,000 -64.5% 922 -862 $844 $57,904,000 $30 7
10 9 Made of Honor Sony $775,000 -59.5% 740 -1,165 $1,047 $44,660,000 $40 6
11 11 The Visitor Over. $503,000 -9.2% 260 -10 $1,934 $6,028,000 - 9
12 10 Forgetting Sarah Marshall Uni. $475,000 -55.2% 442 -326 $1,074 $61,545,000 $30 8

Can't believe Zohan made $40 million. Just can't believe it. (Slaps head, mutters, sighs)

Disgusting, isn't it? Just like the success of "Chuck and Larry".

did you see it? it's a very funny movie, probably one of Sandler's best.

Sandler has been making hit comedies for quite sometime, but for some reason, folks are continually shocked by it. It's so peculiar.

PS Yeah for Kung Fu Panda! What a good movie.

Nice numbers for Kung Fu Panda.

Indiana Jones tops Sex & the City

^But look at the Per theater Averages. Sex and the city whipped Indy's ass.
Also if its like last week Indy might have overdone the numbers and SATC mght have underreported their weekend numbers and the actual chart positions are close enough that they might end up swapping places when the actuals are released tom.

Per theatre average is overrated, especially when it comes to blockbusters. There's nothing to gloat about there, it's small films that benefit from having big PTAs. What makes more money is what matters.

Very impressive 62% drop by Sex and the City.

What in the world is the point of comparing Indy 4 and Sex and the City? Is there some correlation between a PG 13 Action/Adventure film from a 25 year old franchise and an R-rated film about 4 bitches screwing and shopping in a big city?

One will earn over $300 million in the US and become one of the top grossing films of all time. And the other will make $120-$150 million.

What's really amazing is that Zohan has almost made more money than Speed Racer has period.

Because all movies need to be geared to men or children. Making movies strictly for women is a scary thought.

And one cost $300 million and one cost only $100 million.

I'm looking at a production budget of $185 million for Indy on Box Office Mojo.

I'm sure Paramount execs are thrilled to have Indy over Sex and the City. And they still get to sell millions of copies on home video too.

And sex and the city had a $65 million production budget. With advertising its gonna be about $300 million and $100 million.
Both films are doing very well though both domestically and internationally. Indy was expected to be huge though. No one forecasted the amount of money SATC has raked in.

Jeez. Seriously, why such a huge budget? Where did it all go?

botox.

Salaries (shooting a SATC movie with different cast members likely wouldn't work so hot) and shooting in New York and other locales likely weren't particularly cheap.

Nice pulls all around at the B.O., will probably get around to seeing Zohan and Panda at some point.