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Weekend Box Office Thread 1/18/08 - 1/20/08 - Cloverfield - Trailer (Hit? or Miss?)

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Weekend Box Office Thread 1/18/08 - 1/20/08 - Cloverfield - Trailer (Hit? or Miss?)

Old 01-13-08, 07:04 PM
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Weekend Box Office Thread 1/18/08 - 1/20/08 - Cloverfield - Trailer (Hit? or Miss?)

01-18-08- A date the some group of followers were highly waiting since July 4, 2007

So...

Is Cloverfield a Boxoffice January Opening Week Record Hit?

Or another Buzz that Bombed (Like what had happened to Snakes on a Plane back in 2006)

Any forecast?

Me, I would go for the $30Million to $40Million Opening


The Box Office Numbers: Updated 01/19/08

Estimated Gross for Friday, Jan. 18th 2008.

1. CLOVERFIELD PARAMOUNT 3,411 $16,750,000 4,963 n/a $16,750,000
2. 27 DRESSES 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,057 $7,650,000 2,522 n/a $7,650,000
3. BUCKET LIST, THE WARNER BROS. 2,915 $4,150,000 1,413 -36% $31,709,000
4. JUNO FOX SEARCHLIGHT 2,534 $3,060,000 1,210 -32% $78,191,000
5. MAD MONEY OVERTURE FILMS 2,470 $2,295,000 929 n/a $2,295,000
6. FIRST SUNDAY SCREEN GEMS 2,213 $2,210,000 999 -62% $22,875,602
7. NATIONAL TREASURE: BOOK OF SECRETS BVI 2,963 $2,025,000 683 -46% $191,907,845
8. ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,962 $1,540,000 520 -50% $190,920,181
9. I AM LEGEND WARNER BROS. 2,525 $1,375,000 545 -49% $243,952,424
10. ATONEMENT FOCUS FEATURES 1,291 $1,270,000 984 -9% $28,394,806

Last edited by xage; 01-19-08 at 12:26 PM.
Old 01-13-08, 07:06 PM
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Hard to say. I'm leaning more towards bomb though. The commercials look nifty and all but I can't sit through more than 15 minutes of that kinda handheld camera madness.
Old 01-13-08, 07:11 PM
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Snakes on a Plane was a movie that everyone was expecting to be terrible but they were talking about it.

Cloverfield is a movie that people are expecting to be good and are talking about it.

Which one is more likely to do well?
Old 01-13-08, 07:14 PM
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Kinda early for this... but I'd say it should be good for 20-25m opening... making maybe 75-80m overall, depending on how well it's received. Who knows....it could make twice that or half of that...

It will do better than SOAP though... should get better reviews plus the PG-13 rating...and a more appealing storyline and cast.
Old 01-13-08, 07:23 PM
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seeing it opening night hopefully.
Old 01-13-08, 07:24 PM
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I think it will do well. It's aimed at the teenage crowd, and being PG-13 they'll get it. Plus, there aren't many movies out now. No competition + good premise + target demo = box office gold. My guess is a $45 million opening, with about a total take of $85 million.
Old 01-13-08, 07:42 PM
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$28.5 million opening. $71.7 million overall U.S. take.
Old 01-13-08, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by chris_sc77
$28.5 million opening. $71.7 million overall U.S. take.
I love the specificity.
Old 01-13-08, 08:35 PM
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Wow, this is a bit premature.
Old 01-13-08, 08:40 PM
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Agreed. By the time next weekend rolls around and people actually want to see what this film made on opening weekend (which is what the topic of the thread is), they'll have to sift through a bunch of pages to find what they're looking for.
Old 01-13-08, 08:49 PM
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My guess:

Opening Weekend - $30 million

Overall at BO - $125 million

I have a feeling that this one is going to have legs quite a bit longer than what most people are expecting. Over the next few weeks there isn't a lot there to take much away from Cloverfield, other than Rambo.
Old 01-13-08, 09:51 PM
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$18 million opening weekend.

$45 million overall box office take.
Old 01-13-08, 09:54 PM
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I don't feel like there's that much hype around this movie other then the internet folk going gaga because of JJ Abrams involvement, but I may be wrong.

I'd say it has a decent take and an opening of around 25-30 million. I don't really see how it compares to Snakes though.
Old 01-14-08, 01:24 AM
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Snakes on a Plane was rated R.
Old 01-14-08, 01:31 AM
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$12 millions
Old 01-14-08, 01:40 AM
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Originally Posted by fumanstan
I don't feel like there's that much hype around this movie other then the internet folk going gaga because of JJ Abrams involvement, but I may be wrong.

I'd say it has a decent take and an opening of around 25-30 million. I don't really see how it compares to Snakes though.

You have the fandom of ABC's Lost creator's name plastered all over this. That alone will have folks coming in.
Old 01-14-08, 03:11 AM
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Reasons for more profit than usual:
1) PG-13, all teens go and see it after starting school and wanting to get away from school.
2) Nothing else to see, and if there is, my bet would be teens have already seen it.
3) Lost crowd will most likely be swooning over this one.
4) Story seems intriguing (unlike some movies this time of year)

All in all, I think this will either go big or go home. After opening weekend, I think people are going to say "Dude, that was awesome!" or "Dude, worst. Movie. Ever." I don't see a grey area being possible in this movie, but I could be wrong. That being said, I'm going to peg $61.2 million. It's a bit optimistic, so we'll see. I know I'll be seeing it, curiosity kills me.
Old 01-14-08, 09:10 AM
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Since the hype is basically MySpace/Internet based (SoaP, Serenity), I'm guessing bomba.

But, this one does have PG-13 and JJ Abrams, as pointed out.. so I guess it could go either way.
Old 01-14-08, 09:31 AM
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I'll go with $30.5MM.
Old 01-14-08, 09:53 AM
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NYPOST Article thinks it would be a Flopped/Bomb/Missed Target in the Boxoffice

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01132008...209.htm?page=0
Old 01-14-08, 11:23 AM
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I don't think todays audience (at least the audience this film is aimed at) gives a shit about a films cast. A movie doesn't need to have names in it to be a hit. I find this a very sad fact but look at some of the hits of the past year. Alvin and the Chipmunks, 300, Knocked Up, Superbad, Disturbia, etc. Yes there are some films that are star driven but this film seems to be more about concept rather than star-power.
Old 01-14-08, 01:21 PM
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I think it has just the right amount of mystery behind it that it could be a big hit. It only needs to open with over $35 mil to have the largest Jan opening of all-time. Most people I've talked to about it don't even know it's a monster movie. They think it's an alien invasion flick, or some kid of military film. I think the intrigue of what it is will be enough to put plenty of asses in seats opening weekend.
Old 01-14-08, 08:46 PM
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Monday is Martin Luther King, Jr. day, so it should have a very good 4 day total.
Old 01-14-08, 09:27 PM
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I know Alias and Lost fans that have been waiting for this since seeing the first trailer a few months ago. JJ Abrams name is enough to draw a big enough crowd to keep this from being a bomb. On top of that its a pretty cool concept that will appeal to many. Just look at all the Cloverfield discussion going on already.

I'm expecting a big weekend since there really is no competition. The question will be if it has legs and that depends on the word of mouth the movie gets. My hopes are high for this movie. From trailers and commercials it feels like an early summer movie, but the January release date scares me. I'll still be there Friday or Saturday to see it.
Old 01-14-08, 10:09 PM
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Considering that every teenager will being see this on Friday, It should do well @ the opening. I'm predicting it will take in around 30 mil in the opening week. 65.8 mil domestic gross. I'm going to see this based on the reviews. It may be a good rush but I don't feel like getting a headache with the camera angle.

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