Hard to say whether Hollywood is going to learn any lessons from this, but maybe it will mean that we see fewer crap sequels? Interesting that the number of tickets is flat year/year, and that the last 4 weekends are down year/year. July is going to be a tough comp too, up against Pirates 2 from last year..

Summer box office falling short of expectations
Hyped sequels aren't enough to help Hollywood smash previous marks
By Russ Britt, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:53 PM ET Jun 25, 2007


LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Remember that litany of summer sequels, like "Spider-Man 3" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," that were supposed to help the 2007 summer-movie season break all the records?
Those two movies, along with "Shrek the Third," were expected to help set a revenue record for a single month when all were released in May. It turns out they didn't meet the loftiest expectations. Further, the month may not have turned out to have been even the best May ever.
The summer of 2007 is now looking likely to disappoint box-office prognosticators -- unless a dark horse gallops through.
'There is concern'
Hindering the industry's chances is the fact that business has been down for the last four weekends as compared with 2006. "I'm not prepared to write this season off at all," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Media By Numbers. "But there is concern if you have four down weekends."

To be sure, the big three releases of May -- Sony Corp.'s
"Spider-Man," DreamWorks' "Shrek" and Walt Disney Co.'s "Pirates" -- have done business that is nothing to sneeze at.

Through last weekend, "Spider-Man 3," in fact, had exceeded its two predecessors in worldwide box office with $875 million. That's good enough to place it 10th on the all-time list. "Pirates 3" isn't far behind at $827 million, placing it 15th. And "Shrek" is showing signs of having staying power. It's made $307.9 million so far domestically and has yet to debut in a number of foreign markets.
The three films, however, couldn't push May past the $1 billion mark, a level that's been breached a couple of times during some recent Junes. With business now waning for the three biggest releases of the summer, it appears increasingly unlikely that the industry will break the lofty goals of $4 billion for the summer and $10 billion for the year.

Thus far this summer, sales are at $1.66 billion, 3.7% above the comparable year-earlier period's $1.6 billion, Dergarabedian said. The numbers of ticket sales, though, is only a shade above last year's level because ticket prices have risen.

Dergarabedian said May box office totaled $965 million, which he called the best May ever. But BoxOfficeMojo.com's president, Brandon Gray, said he figures the industry raked in $925 million during the month, which would make it the second-best May ever, behind the $956 million rung up in 2003.

Three movies does not a record make
Gray said a part of the problem is that the industry put out few other releases during May. Indeed, some U.S. theater owners cleared the decks when "Pirates 3" hit late in the month. At that point, some cinemas featured only "Pirates," "Shrek" and "Spider-Man" on a multitude of screens for a short time. "You need more than three movies to have a record," Gray said.
"Pirates," "Shrek" and "Spider-Man" all performed within the range of expectations, though this year's "Pirates" entry seems destined to fall well short of "Pirates 2's" stratospheric mark. That film scored than $1 billion in box-office receipts.

Media By Numbers' Dergarabedian said the sequels attracted initial box-office pops but have little in the way of staying power, or "legs," in industry parlance. "Legs are a thing of the past," he said.

BoxOfficeMojo's Gray said legs typically bolster original -- that is, nonsequel -- films that keep drawing in the curious. Few of this summer's few films have made a mark. One surprise has been Universal's "Knocked Up," an R-rated comedy that has made $108 million thus far in domestic receipts.

Disney's upcoming Pixar release, the animated "Ratatouille," may help out, too. Another wild card is Paramount/DreamWorks' upcoming "Transformers," based on the popular 1980s toy.

There are also more sequels on the way, with the fourth installment in the "Die Hard" franchise -- Fox's "Live Free Or Die Hard" -- hitting theaters Wednesday. Warner Bros.'
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," the fifth in that series, is due out July 11. And a number of others, such as Universal's "The Bourne Ultimatum," are coming later in the season.

But, "as the weeks go by," Gray conceded, "it seems less and less likely that this summer will be a record-breaker."
Russ Britt is the Los Angeles bureau chief for MarketWatch.

Why do I feel like this is said EVERY YEAR...

I guess it depends on what expectations you are going by.

It has met my expectations; I expected it to pretty much blow.

If you look at overall box office, it has been flat for the last 5 years, and the number of tickets sold is actually flat with 1997...so yeah, it is probably because it has been true for at least the last few years...


http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/

The other interesting thing about the boxoffice mojo chart, is that the number of movies released per year is up 25% since 2002! 600=12 per week more or less. That's a trend that is definitely going to have to come to an end at some point...

I hardly go to the theater anymore now. Too much money to spend, some people still talk on their damn ***king cellphones, noisy kids can't shut up or stay in their seat. Beside I can alway wait for three or four months till they out on DVD.

Well I don't know, when studios put out the biggest three blockbuster sequels in a four-week time frame, it's not a fucking surprise none of them are preforming up to studio expectations. None of these films can have legs, because the audience has to go see the next new film the following weekend. It's not a surprise that Spider-man 3, Shrek the Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End will all have near the same total amount once all is said and done, because they all attracted the same audience. However, three films grossing $300 million in a one month time frame is pretty impressive all in itself.

This may be one of the most crowded summers in years. Live Free or Die Hard comes out in two days, Transformers in six, and Harry Potter in fourteen -- and we're only at the half way mark of the summer.

2007, let's face it, will make more money than 2006. However, studios need to stop producing $175 million trainwrecks (Evan Almighty) and focus more on lower budgeted films that can easily draw $100 million (Knocked Up) and pull in a tidy profit.

How about this idea...spread the blockbusters out a bit next year!

How do they expect such great numbers when they flood the market in May-June?

Maybe they shouldn't spend $300 million on a movie. You could probably feed all of Africa for that amount of money.

It makes sense if all the movies were being released by the same company, but they're not. Disney isn't going to give up a weekend to Dreamworks or Sony. They're all competing for the same audience...and you have very little to gain by giving the competition time to play their film - cause you're not going to get that same courtesy, cause likely, the next huge summer movies is right on your own ass.

A lot of the blockbusters, especially the "part 3" ones, have had terrible word of mouth. So not a lot of business after opening weekend.

That dark horse might take the shape of a rat chef.

I think Transformers is gonna do ridiculous numbers so it won't matter.

I think Transformers is gonna bomb worse than Evan Almighty so it might matter.

No way transformers will bomb, Everyone I know is extremly excited for this movie, everytime the they show the preview at the theaters it gets the best reaction. Fans of the cartoon are probably the ones thinking it will bomb.


This year, the movies have been pretty good, unlike most years. The problem this year, too many big budget flicks too close together. The only have opening weekend then usually the first week. After that theres a new big movie out.

I wouldn't have thought it a couple months ago, but after seeing the trailers, I'd have to say Transformers has a good shot at being one of the year's biggest hits.

Wow Variety review of Transformers is incredibly positive, they are usually pretty cynical bastards..

http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117...goryid=31&cs=1

Those "Part 3" sequels are killers...

Return of the Jedi
Matrix Revolutions
Godfather III
Spider-Man III
X-Men III

These trilogies never end well... (Except for Rings...)

Does anyone else think that home video may have something to do with crowding the bigger blockbusters earlier? They want to get them out now on discs as early as October, so releasing big movies in July or August is pushing it. I know the release windows are shorter than ever on average, but for blockbusters they don't want just 3 months or so.

Whether it's rock and roll or old soul (It don't matter)
Disco, Calipso (It don't matter)
Suit and tie or tie-dye (It don't matter)
Snakeskins or Timberlands (It don't matter)
Tight fade or long braid (It don't matter)
Red head or brunette (It don't matter)
Breakdance, slamdance (It don't matter)
Do the jerk until it hurts
I'm tellin' you

Ain't nothin' wrong with that (I'm tellin' you)
Ain't nothin' wrong with that (I'm tellin' you)
Ain't nothin' wrong with that

East or west coast (It don't matter)
Down south or up north (It don't matter)
Hollywood or in the hood (It don't matter)
Either way it's all good (It don't matter)
Block party, frat party, (It don't matter)
Backyard or boulevard (It don't matter)
Red, yellow, black or white (It don't matter)
We all gettin' down tonight
I'm tellin' you

-- Robert Randolph & The Family Band, Ain't Nothing Wrong With That

I liked Harry Potter 3.

Why must every summer be bigger than last? Spider-Man 3 has grossed near a billion worldwide, Pirates 3 and SM3 have grossed a billion togeter in the states, Transformers will bank as will Harry, and Knocked Up is near a hundred million, so this is not profitable?

Geez, what a world!

I guarantee you that this won't happen.

That's what he said...

You just hit it on the head, figuratively.

The reason why they want the blockbuster releases as early as possible during the summer season is because they want the home video release on DVD, HD-DVD and/or Blu-Ray format by early November at latest in order to capture maximum holiday sales. I can see Transformers, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and Ratatouille selling many millions of copies on DVD by the end of 2007 after the expected November 2007 releases.

Just curious, but is everyone you know in the 16-24 age group (and male)?