I say Transformers ends up bombing. There will be a burnout and if any blockbuster is gonna take the fall it will be Transformers. Simply because there's no one in it who can carry a film.

Yeah, it pains me to say it... but if I were a betting man, Transformers will be the one to go down in flames. It's got all the warning signs... no stars, modern setting with sci-fi element (unlike a pure fantasy environment like SW or LOTR). Basically it hinges on just how big the Transformers name still is... a dicey proposition. 4th of July wknd aint what it used to be either...

After seeing Spidey 3, the box office champ is probably going to be POTC3.

I didn't see your comments yet on "S3" in the review thread, but I'm guessing you didn't like it too much. Well, I hated "Pirates 2" and it cleaned up. So.....

My review was post #75 in the SM3 review thread. I gave it a C+.

Pirates 2 didn't exactly get rave reviews and was still a mega hit. I'm sure the same will be for Spidey. The difference though, is there wasn't that many big blockbusters last Summer as there is this year.

Considering how loyal Simpsons Fans are, that there is a current and still very popular TV show, comic books, joke books, merchandise and a whole TV network backing the movie, I have a feeling it will set records.

I think that there is a lot of choice this summer compared to the last couple of years and i think that as a result many movies will not make as much. My guesses are (for domestic returns in the US in millions)

1. Spiderman 3 ($320+) - Coming out first with little head to head competition will mean that this will be the big cash cow.

2. Pirates of the Caribbean: Worlds End ($300+) - The second movie made a shit load, and i expect the third to do just as well.

3. Shrek the Third ($250+) - I hate these films, but the kids love them. Another cash in for Disney. On a side note, is anyone else bored by the lack of imagination that goes into these animated movies. Disney is such a hack for dishing out the same pile of crapolla.

4. Transformers ($240+) - Looking forward to this. Grew up with the cartoon, but was never such a fan that i could not bear what they are doing with the redesigns now.

5. The Bourne Ultimatum ($200+) - Two great films before it have built up a loyal and wide following. Can't wait to see this one myself.

6. Live Free or Die Hard ($190+) - Loved all the series so far and look forward to this. Just wish it was R rated.

7. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer ($180+) - I actually liked the first film and am also looking forward to this. The Surfer looks great, as does Alba (as always). But the idea of Galactus not living up to expectations is what bothers me.

8. Rush Hour 3 ($150+) - This film will probably actually make over $200 mil., but it looks like a typical sequel with little imagination. Another series of films that i didn't care for. Its a shame that Jackie Chan can't match his earlier films like Armor of God or Wheels on Meals. And the less said about Tucker the better.

Shrek is Dreamworks NOT Disney, infact they prided themselves on being the anti-Disney.

Transformers could either be huge or tank, I think it'll go pretty big thanks to the ID4 inspired trailer and the fact Spielberg is producing.

Pirates 3 got mad applause at Spidey 3 last night... when it started, by the end of the trailer, all the energy had been sucked out of the room.

I'm looking forward to Transformers, Live Free or Die Hard, and The Bourne Ultimatum. Shrek has long worn out its welcome (#1 was about 75% a good movie, #2 sucked and #3 looks just as meh), Pirates 2 was a horrible movie, as was Fantastic Four (but the FF:ROTSS trailers get good responsed and do look better than #1). So we'll see.

You gotta keep in mind that stuff like The Matrix Reloaded (Movie 2 of the series) made a boatload only for Revolutions (3 of 3) to come out and make less than the other two.

Well, I hate the Shrek films too. But they're not Disney. It's Dreamworks.

Absolutely! Both films released within 12 months of each other? It was overkill. Same thing happened to "Back to the Future III". I'm going to wait until I see all the critics reviews for "Pirates 3" (NOT the user reviews). If it gets 50/50 or less, I'll wait and rent it. Because "Pirates 2" (which only got a 54% on RT) was just terrible IMO. I'll see "Die Hard 4". But I'm going in with super low expectations. Cheesy director. A tired Willis and franchise. But I'm committed at this point I'll pass on the "Fantastic Four" sequel. Remember, it's trailer looked good too.

Didn't realize Len Wiseman directed Live Free or Die Hard, I wasn't an Underworld fan so who knows, the dude comes off as a sleezeball for some reason, but if hes good enough for Kate Beckinsale... well I have no way of finishing that.

And while Spider-man 3 had 3 years between movies, Pirates was a year ago and may be dealt a similar fate (It won't bomb, but won't do nearly as much business as #2, though I don't think people expect it to.)

I'm gonna say that Spidey will definitely not cross the $300 mark. It'll do well its first weekend and the second will see a steep drop.
-ringding-

I say Pirates 3 or Transformers will the be the big movies this summer.

I think there are gonna be some disapointments this summer since there are so many big movies coming out this summer. theres too many.

Any movie that's projected to do $130 million or so in totals the first weekend will see a steep drop. It won't see Hulk levels of drop, though.

I think Harry Potter will be a big winner - coming out right around the last book release is going to do wonders for it.

Overall, it's a toss-up between Spidey, POTC and Harry Potter.

Shrek will do okay, as will Bourne.

Fantastic Four 2 (even thought it looks better than the 1st one), Transformers and Die Hard will all tank, relatively speaking. I think they'll make their budgets back but that's about it. I don't know anyone who is looking forward to any of those movies.

I'd pick Shrek 3 as the summer box office champ - $350
Spider Man - $275
Pirates - $250
Harry Potter - $230
Bourne - $200
Rush Hour - $175
Transformers - $160
Die Hard 4 - $135

Shrek 3, Spider-man 3, and Pirates 3 will all do $300 million. No question about it. Shrek and Spider-man are coming off the box office and critical successes of their past entry, and while Pirates 3 is following the box office success of Dead Man's Chest, most weren't too fond of it -- which could prevent it from being another $400 million hit.

Harry Potter will have another $100 million opening weekend. Transformers will do $100 million in it's first five days. This may be the second Potter film to break $300 million -- and Warner chose the perfect fucking release date to launch it.

If it's good, Fantastic Four 2 will break $200 million. The fan base is there and most are anticipating a better second round. The Bourne Ultimatum may come close to $200 million, but I don't see it happening.

Mark my words: Ratatouille, Stardust, Underdog, and The Invasion will be the summer's biggest flops. Ratatouille being the one that will shock the industry and give away to Wall-E's fate (which I predict will also tank -- I like the idea, most won't).

Nancy Drew and Hairspray don't stand a fucking chance.

Rush Hour 3 and The Simpsons Movie may end up being too little too late.

Ocean's Thirteen and Hostel 2 will have their ass kicked by Surf's Up.

I think Pirates will take the cake with close to four hundred million dollars.

the 3's take it.

1) SM3
2) POTC 3
3) Shrek 3

I'm surprised people think Shrek is going to do so well - I've never been a fan, but it seemed like the franchise was already getting pretty tired with 2. I don't know how many people are really looking forward to another sequel.

I'm sure I'll be wrong though

Shrek = $260+ million domestically, 88% fresh (137 positive reviews).
Shrek 2 = $420+ million domestically, 89% fresh (173 positive reviews).

It will do $300 million, guaranteed, however, it's not coming close to Shrek's 2 box-office. Not a chance in hell, especially with Pirates 3 seven days later.

Well i got mixed up between Dreamworks and Disney. It doesn't mater though because the Shrek films are still utter GARBAGE. I probably got mixed up because the movies studios that produce these CGI animated movies all don't have any imagination at all. What is happening with them is what happened with Disney hand drawn animation....they kept rehashing the same product until the general public were totally bored with it all. Pixar are the only animated company with ideas and even they seem to be going downhill.

Here is my stance on the matter...

Sony Pictures Animation is trying to get their shit together. Monster House and Open Season were fun-fluffy films, but both released at the wrong time. Surf's Up, now actually knowing that it's a mockumentary, can be a lot of fun if done right. However, it's sandwiched in the middle of the summer on a weekend that's already crowded.

Disney, at it's current stance, is currently a clusterfuck. Their stories are weak and their animation could be either fantastic or complete shit. At the rate it's going, Meet the Robinsons might not even make it to the $100 million mark -- and it's actually pretty close ($90 million after this weekend). I know with the PIXAR guys helping them out, they can be improved, but who knows at this current point (cause they had a major influence in Robinsons).

PIXAR. I've liked all their films except Cars. I'm not interested in Ratatouille and it seems the general public isn't either. However, Wall-E seems it will achieve greatness, but could be way too weird for most audiences.

DreamWorks. They made two enjoyable animated films -- Antz and Over the Hedge -- and a whole lot of shit that will be dated in no time.

I know Warner released two CGI animated films last year -- but nobody saw The Ant Bully.

POC: AWD $410 Million
Shrek 3 $390 Million
SP3 $335 Million
HP 5 $295 Million
Bourne 3 $225 Million
Simpsons $195 Million
Transformers $180 Million