One and Only 2005 Oscar Nomination Prediction Thread
2005 Oscar Predictions:
as of 1/31 .....very subject to change. Best Picture Brokeback Mountain Capote Crash Good Night, and Good Luck Munich what will win: Brokeback Mountain what should win: Crash Best Directing Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee Capote - Bennett Miller Crash - Paul Haggis Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney Munich - Steven Spielberg who will win: Ang Lee who should win: Steven Spielberg Best Actor Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Capote Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck who will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman Best Actress Judy Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents Felicity Huffman - Transamerica Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice Charlize Theron - North Country Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line who will win: Reese Witherspoon who should win: Reese Witherspoon Best Supporting Actor George Clooney - Syriana Matt Dillon - Crash Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain William Hurt - A History of Violence who will win: George Clooney who should win: Paul Giamatti Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams - Junebug Catherine Keener - Capote Francis McDormand - North Country Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain who will win: Rachel Weisz who should win: Amy Adams Best Screenplay (Original) Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco Good Night, and Good Luck - Grant Heslov, George Clooney Match Point - Woody Allen The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach Syriana - Stephen Gaghan what will win: Crash what should win: The Squid and the Whale Best Screenplay (Adapted) Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana Capote - Dan Futterman The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine A History of Violence - John Wagner, Vince Locke Munich - Tony Kushner & Eric Roth what will win: too early to tell what should win: Capote Best Animated Feature Chicken Little Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit what will win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit what should win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit Best Foreign Language Film Don't Tell Joyeux Noel Paradise Now Sophie Scholl - The Final Days Tsotsi what will win: Paradise Now what should win: Paradise Now Best Film Editing Cinderella Man Crash The Constant Gardener Munich Walk the Line what will win: Crash what should win: Crash Best Cinematography Batman Begins Brokeback Mountain Good Night, and Good Luck Memoirs of a Geisha The New World what will win: Brokeback Mountain what should win: Batman Begins Best Art Direction Good Night, and Good Luck Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha Pride & Prejudice what will win: King Kong what should win: King Kong Best Sound Mixing The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha Walk the Line War of the Worlds what will win: King Kong what should win: King Kong Best Sound Editing King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha War of the Worlds what will win: King Kong what should win: King Kong Best Costume Design Charlie and the Chocolate Factory Memoirs of a Geisha Mrs. Henderson Presents Pride & Prejudice Walk the Line what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha what should win: Walk the Line Best Makeup The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe Cinderella Man Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith what will win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith what should win: Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Best Visual Effects The Chronicles of Narnia: The Line, the Witch, and the Wardrobe King Kong War of the Worlds what will win: King Kong what should win: King Kong Best Music (Score) Brokeback Mountain The Constant Gardener Memoirs of a Geisha Munich Pride & Prejudice what will win: Memoirs of a Geisha what should win: Munich Best Music (Song) "In the Deep" - Crash "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - Hustle & Flow "Travelin' Thru" - Transamerica what will win: Crash what should win: Hustle and Flow |
Best Picture
Good Luck and Good Night Brokeback Mountain Match point Walk the Line Constant Gardener Best Director George Clooney Woody Allen Peter Jackson Fernando Meiralles Ang Lee Best Actor Heath Ledger Phillip Seymour Hoffman Russell Crowe David Strathairn Jeff Daniels/Ralph Fiennes Best Actress Gwyneth Paltrow Charlize Theron Felicity Huffman Reese Witherspoon Laura Linney Best Supp. Actress Catherine Keener (Capote) Scarlett Johanson Michelle Williams Diane Keaton Rachel Weisz Best Supp. Actor Ed Harris Paul Giamatti George Clooney Matt Dillon Bob Hoskins Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Match Point Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain i think brokeback will win best picture/director. dead heat: heath ledger/phillip seymour hoffman actress: either huffman/witherspoon best supporting actor: paul giamatti best supporting actress: scarlett johanson |
The Nominations are announced on January 31. Anyone else got predictions to post? Mine is still a work in progress and some of these categories are pure guesses since I have yet to see a few of the remaining contenders.
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For the serious Oscar afficionado, the best site out there is OscarWatch.com. If you look at the predictions among its members in the forums and on its main page, you'll do pretty well in any Oscar pool.
Here are my current predictions for Best Picture: Picture: Brokeback Mountain (probable winner- assuming it can make over 50 million at the box office) Good Night and Good Luck King Kong Munich Walk the Line |
If either Cinderella Man or A History of Violence get a nod in the BEST PICTURE category, I'm going to throw up.
Otherwise, I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Reese Witherspoon are locks as Best Actor and Best Actress nominees. But I'm pulling for Munich for Best Picture and Best Director. |
Although I agree with Cinderella Man, I think that A History Of Violence should definitely get a best picture nod.
I don't think King Kong will be up there. = J |
I've now put A History of Violence in a Best Picture spot. The film just won Best Picture from a poll of 100 critics from The Village Voice. The movie seems to be picking up some steam.
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Going to go with Picture and Directing right now
<b>Best Picture</b> Brokeback Mountain Capote Cinderella Man Crash Good Night, And Good Luck Replaced The Constant Gardener, Munich and King Kong with Capote, Crash and Good Night, And Good Luck after thinking about the choices and seeing the other awards' results/nominations. For some reason, I am still feeling that Cinderella Man will sneak into the category (like I stated before about the sneak in by Seabuscuit). I put Capote in there, well, just because I think it is the best film from 2005 that I have seen. The movie is extraordinary and deserves a spot. <b>Best Director</b> George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck Paul Haggis, Crash Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Bennett Miller, Capote Steven Speilberg, Munich Spoiler: Woody Allen, Match Point will replace Haggis or Miller I think Miller will be the surprise director nod and Speilberg will get in while Munich will stay out of BP. Put Haggis in there cause Crash (for some odd reason) is actually being honed (is that a word?) as a great film. I hope I am not way off with Capote in BP and BD. Deserves to be in both. |
I could easily see the Academy reward Munich with a Best Director Nomination for Spielberg and leaving it off for Best Picture for something like Crash, Match Point, Good Night..., or Syriana.
One film I don't have for anything is The New World. If that's well received, it could get a few nominations. |
Those are, of course, possible choices - but the Academy really loves that epic feel of cinema and they usually reserve one - maybe two - spots for smaller films. But this could turn out to be like 1996 where independent film could overshadow the major studio films. They could go the GG route though - like your point with Munich (which I hope doesn't happen - take King Kong out of BP if they do that, not Munich.)
:eek: - Crash - I hope not! |
I think Kong is safe at Best Picture. A History of Violence has come on strong of late. I'm hoping they don't forget Cinderella Man, but that could easily happen. Walk the Line is another possible candidate.
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
I think Kong is safe at Best Picture. A History of Violence has come on strong of late. I'm hoping they don't forget Cinderella Man, but that could easily happen. Walk the Line is another possible candidate.
Sorry, I'm going off on a tangent. I'll stop now so everyone can go back to predicting. :D |
No mentions for Hustle & Flow, which I think could wind up with a few nominations such as Acting, (Terrence Howard + possibly Taryn Manning), Directing, and/or Original Screenplay.
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If Hustle & Flow gets anything, it would be Actor for Howard. But the competition this year for that award is very tough and very crowded. I think Strathairn, Phoenix, Hoffman, and Ledger are locks, which leaves 1 spot. It could go to Howard, but also Eric Bana, Viggo Mortensen, Jeff Daniels, Ralph Fiennes, or Russell Crowe, whom I have for the final spot. This is my favorite category this year. So many great performances.
The Constant Gardener comes out on dvd next week. That's a film I didn't think would still be considered. But I'll get to judge for myself on the 10th. |
Best Picture Nominees:
Brokeback Mountain Good Night and Good Luck Match Point Munich Pride and Prejudice Best Director Nominees Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain Woody Allen for Match Point Steven Speilburg for Munich David Croenburg for History of Violence Paul Haggis for Crash (maybe a nom for Peter Jackson for King Kong even though I don't want him to get nominated) Best Actor Nominees: Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote Terrance Howard for Hustle and Flow Jaoquin Pheonix for Walk the Line David Straigtharn for Good Night, and Good Luck (I would like to see Ledge edge out Hoffman on this one) Best Acress Nominees: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line Felicity Huffman for Transamerica Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents...(I wish she would die) Keira Knightly for Pride and Prejudice Vera Farmiga for Down to the Bone (even though I would like to see Naomi Watts for this and Huffman has a chance) Best Supporting Actor Nominees: Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain Matt Dillion for Crash Terrance Howard for Crash William Hurt for History of Violence Kevin Costner for Upside of Anger (some press for Howard get two acting noms) Best Supporting Actress Nominees: Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain Amy Adams for Junebug Scarlett Johanson for Match Point Maria Bello for History of Violence Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen for Match Point Noah Baumbach for The Squid and the Whale Paul Haggis and Robert Moresco for Crash Grant Heslov and George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck Craig Brewer for Hustle and Flow (high applause for Allen winning, will he show?) Best Adapted Screenplay: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain Deborah Moggach for Pride and Prejudice Dan Futterman for Capote Tony Kushner & Eric Roth for Munich Josh Oldson for History of Violence Best Animated Feature: Wallace and Gromit Howl's Moving Castle The Corpse Bride (Only 3 get noms, right?) Best Costumes: Pride and Prejudice Brokeback Mountain Memoirs of a Geisha Capote Walk the Line |
WRITERS GUILD NOMINEES
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Cinderella Man Crash The 40 Year Old Virgin Good Night, and Good Luck The Squid and the Whale ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Brokeback Mountain Capote The Constant Gardener A History of Violence Syriana The 40 Year Old Virgin is a bit of a surprise. These usually give a good indication of what will be nominated for the Oscar. It's looking more likely that A History of Violence will be a factor on March 5th. No recognition for Match Point, King Kong, or Munich. Hmmm |
My picks for best picture:
Brokeback Mountain A History of Violence Walk the Line Good Night, and Good Luck Munich |
PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINEES
Brokeback Mountain Capote Crash Good Night, and Good Luck Walk the Line ***dvd screeners for King Kong and Munich were not sent to PGA voters*** I don't think this changes alot. I'm more interested in what the Director's Guild nominates. They seem to match up with the Oscars more so than the PGA. From all the info gathered, it seems Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck are locks. The PGA's selection of Walk the Line helps that film. |
This is Oscar related news...
There are rumors that Jon Stewart will be the host of this year's Academy Awards. I think he's an interesting choice but a good one. Check out www.oscarwatch.com for more details. |
Brokeback Mountain will win best pic. Anyone think it'll even be about movies this year?
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Chris Rock then Jon Stewart, that makes me happy :D
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Originally Posted by Artman
Brokeback Mountain will win best pic. Anyone think it'll even be about movies this year?
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Originally Posted by ChrisKnudsen
Brokeback Mountain will win best picture this year because it actually is the best picture of the year. Nice change of pace in my opinion.
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SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINEES
Actor: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck Actress: Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents Felicity Huffman, Transamerica Charlize Theron, North Country Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha Supporting Actor: Don Cheadle, Crash George Clooney, Syriana Matt Dillon, Crash Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, Junebug Catherine Keener, Capote Frances McDromand, North Country Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener Michelle Williams, Brokeback Ensemble: Brokeback Mountain Capote Crash Good Night, and Good Luck Hustle & Flow *Russell Crowe gets a big boost here. |
Judging from the choices, it appears King Kong is out and Munich is in. Also, Crash and Capote get a HUGE boost here with nominations. The DGA matches up best with the Best Picture Oscars. Other than the 5 listed, it appears Walk the Line is #6. It's looking like these 6 films are the finalists for the Oscar race.
Director's Guild Nominees GEORGE CLOONEY GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. Warner Independent Pictures Mr. Clooney’s Directorial Team: Unit Production Manager: Barbara A. Hall First Assistant Director: David Webb Second Assistant Director: Melissa V. Barnes Second Second Assistant Director: Richard Gonzales PAUL HAGGIS CRASH Lions Gate Films Mr. Haggis’ Directorial Team: Unit Production Manager: Betsy Danbury First Assistant Director: Scott Cameron Second Assistant Director: Simone Farber ANG LEE BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN Focus Features Mr. Lee’s Directorial Team: Unit Production Managers: Scott Ferguson, Tom Benz First Assistant Directors: Michael Hausman, Pierre Tremblay Second Assistant Director: Donald Murphy Second Second Assistant Director: Brad Moerke BENNETT MILLER CAPOTE United Artists / Sony Pictures Classics Mr. Miller’s Directorial Team: Unit Production Managers: Ellen Rutter, Caroline Baron First Assistant Directors: Ronaldo Nacionales, Richard O’Brien Moran Second Assistant Director: Charles Crossin This is Mr. Miller’s first nomination. STEVEN SPIELBERG MUNICH Universal Pictures Mr. Spielberg’s Directorial Team: Unit Production Manager: Ian Hickinbotham First Assistant Director: Adam Somner Second Second Assistant Director: Pierre Ellul |
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