jaeufraser

The budget on the film is more in the range of 40 million dollars. Well for this film? If it makes 50-60 million I'd say it'd be considered a hit. It's certainly has the potential...genre fare has performed well during September, at least at these lower bduget levels. If it can pull off an opening of say low 20s, it'll see itself set up as a decent hit. I can't say I see it doing much more then that, especially with the release date. Though it's a bigger film then 10 million, so 15-20 would be poor, unless it was opening weekend.

clemente

Your assumption is somewhat flawed....first, you assume that everyone who has bought the DVD has loved the series enough to want to see the movie. And loved it so much that they practically beat down the doors of friends and neighbors to watch the movie.

Secondly, despite where it ranks on Amazon, the top selling TV Show DVD of Chappelle Show, followed by (the other season of Chappelle Show, Family Guy, and Seinfeld). Chappelle Show has a bit over 3 millions copies sold.

Let's be somewhat generous and say that Firefly has sold 2.5 million copies (since no one has ever been able to find real numbers). Average tickets prices are about 6 bucks (taking matiness into consideration and lower ticket prices away from major metro areas).

Your theory...There will be atleast one Serenity ticket sold for every Firefly set sold, 2.5 millions sets x $6 = $15 million. Not enough to call it a success...actually that would be a failure.

Just like any genre movie, the success (or failure) of Serenity will be based on whether it can draw the casual fan. If it relies on the hardcore fan, it won't make back its production budget. I don't think the success or failure of Serenity will be a surprise when the movie actually opens, if the buzz isn't there (real buzz, not internet buzz, which is naturally weighted towards genre material) then the movie will tank...hard! Right now....well, the movie is months away from release.

I can't wait to see it though.

Jackskeleton

While I agree with the idea that it's not an automatic out of the ball park play. The fact that sells are good and Universal will push the show for TV air on Sci Fi to draw in more of a crowd are good signs that it has potential.

but where do you get $6 for tickets in todays market place. I'm surprised you find theatres for anything less than 9 bucks a seat now a days.

Duder

Of course I assume that everyone who has bought the DVD set wants to see the movie. It's actually a very conservative assumption, because the percentage of people who bought it and DIDN'T care for it enough to see the movie are MORE than offset by the amount of people who DIDN'T buy the DVDs but watched them anyway. Hence my own example: My one (1) DVD set has ensured seven (7) tickets sold. Oh, and that's not counting my friend who also bought the DVD set after watching mine... and then showed it to his girlfriend and several of his friends in Colorado.

Your 15 million dollar figure doesn't mean much because it's based on the assumption that the ONLY people who will see Serenity are the already existing fans of the show. By that logic, any movie that is not a continuation of an already existing franchise can't possibly make any money during its theatrical run. I agree with you that generating buzz is important, but I disagree about how it needs to happen. I envision Serenity as being one of those movies that doesn't pull in a lot on a day-to-day basis, but has enough word of mouth and repeat viewing to keep it in the theaters long enough to be profitable, if only barely. The DVD sales will probably be very high, outshining the theatrical performance as is the case more and more often these days. At the end of it all, it will turn a profit and Serenity 2 will be greenlit, just as Sin City and Hellboy were ultimately greenlit for sequels despite not becoming huge box office record-breakers.

But I suppose neither of us will know who's right until the movie actually comes out (and has been out for a while).

EDIT: Yeah, 6 dollars is hardly an average ticket price. Maybe it is out in low population areas, but where most people live in the packed urban areas, it's quite a bit higher. And I assume we're just talking about first-run prices here, and not the prices at second-run theaters.

Hokeyboy

There's also the concept that out of all the people who bought the DVD set, a good portion of them might just wait for the DVD. Groin, and

mifuneral

^good point. It's not a secret that box office has been at a very low place lately. The fact that movies are having shorter theatrical runs nowadays and quicker dvd releases is directly related to dvds selling much better than theater tickets. In light of that, I'm tempted to say the dvd sales for Firefly are somewhat irrelevent. If Serenity is to succeed in theaters it'll be more because of word of mouth than the Firefly dvds.

Depends on the area, obviously. For example, I live in NE Wisconsin where matinees are $4.75 and evening shows are $8

RogueScribner

I have a feeling that Serenity will be the next Sky Captain . . . really good reviews and a cool marketing campaign followed by lackluster box office.

lizard

Here it is $6.50 evenings and the weekend matinees are $4.50. Less for children and seniors, of course.

When I read some of the prices quoted for the big cities I am not surprised at the number of people who prefer to wait for the DVD rather than hit the theater.

jaeufraser

With its installed fan base, I think it has the potential to do better. Besides, it's not quite as out there as Sky Captain. We should keep in mind that if Serenity makes 20 million more then Sky Captain, that'll be a success.

Patman

Atlanta theaters average just around $9 for evening ticket prices, and $6 for matinee.

Snowmaker

I thought the trailer looked like Firefly.

das Monkey

I'm certainly rooting for it, but it's hard to fight this simple truth. No one in my entire company had even heard of Firefly until I started babbling on about it. Two of them were huge Buffy fans, but they don't live on the Internet and completely missed it when it was buried on Fox. Sure, I did my job and created some fans and built the interest as best I could, but that's a big uphill battle. There's a big difference between a show that got cancelled that people have heard of even if they didn't watch versus a show so completely under the radar that it's essentially starting from scratch with Joe Average. Add to that the fact that there are no stars, and it's going to be incredibly difficult to get someone interested in this film without a Browncoat personally harrassing him.

One thing that scares me is the mention of Buffy in the trailer. It's a sad truth, but at least half of the people I interact with on a daily basis have a classic ignorant opinion of Buffy. They've certainly never seen it, but to them it sounds like a stupid teen show the equivalent of Sabrina, The Teenage Witch. How wrong they are is immaterial. Hearing "from the creator Buffy the Vampire Slayer is almost certainly not going to pique their interest and will possibly have a negative effect.

I can only hope that the primary ad campaign for this thing is aimed almost exclusively to non-fans and newbies.

Also, one thing to consider is that success is relative. The absolute bottom is that the film generates more revenue than it cost to produce, but keep in mind that just because it turns a profit does not mean that it's a "success". Studios have limited resources and can only make so many films, so it needs to turn more of a profit than other similar projects or potential projects. If we want sequels, it needs to make enough of a profit that it makes sense for the studio to pass on investing in something else in order to invest in another one of these. Opportunity cost.

das

jaeufraser

Success is relative, and don't think that Universal expects this to make 150 million. If this performs like, say, Hellboy or Resident Evil it'll be a success.

At this point though, it's hard to really judge. Until September it'll be tough to gage how well this will do. But it doesn't have impossible odds against it, and claiming it being based on a cancelled tv show and having no stars means it's doomed is...well, not necessarily true. Cause I can't really think of a movie based on those parameters in the first place, so there's no real precedent there.

Sessa17

This is absolutely not true & completely idealistic. Not every single person who bought Firefly will go to see it, for one tons of those sales on Amazon are parents or whoever buying the DVD set for other people, who may not have money to go see the film. Tons of people who bought the DVDs will wait for the film to hit DVD, many people just don't like going to the theater. There are plenty of people who also sneak in to movies, on top of a dozen other reasons why not every person who bought or owns Firefly will go to see it in the theater.

And as much as a love the show & hope it is a massive it, the bottom line is the movie will not appeal to the average movie goer.

jaeufraser

I agree it won't, but it doesn't need to. This needs to play like a Resident Evil film, or Hellboy. niche genre audience. Hopefully it'll find that audience and find a 50 or 60 million dollar success. It could also flop and only make 20 or 30 million. Kinda hard to tell, but it's up in the air right now how it'll go. If the film can build buzz in September and open to 20 million, I think it'll be in good shape.

DeputyDave

I watched Firefly once or twice as Fox sporadically showed it and was unimpressed. It wasn’t until I read on DVDTalk how great the show was that I decided to bite the bullet and buy it on DVD. It was incredible. It’s strange how a show I was indifferent about when it aired has now become my all time favorite TV show.

Now as much as I want this show to outsell Star Wars I am afraid it will do poorly. If my reaction is anything to go by people who only saw it on TV will most likely skip it in theaters. I’m doing my part. Every person I have turned onto the DVD (about 5) has loved it and we are already planning to see the movie. I will even break tradition and actually go see it on opening weekend (the only time I’ve done that in the last 10 years is LOTR) to show support. Not that I think our 5 or 6 extra tickets will help much.

calhoun07

Even some of the best reviews for Sky Captain raved for the style and admitted the movie lacked any real substance, however. Serinity definately will have more substance.

It would be awesome if Serinity could take off the way Star Trek did 30 years ago.

ivelostr2

I didn't see it in the origianl broadcast, but after watching the dvds, and seeing how they were broadcast out of order, I understand why people were "unimpressed." It really makes you wonder about people in charge...

calhoun07

I honestly believe the last great network president was Brandon Tartikoff.

Duder

I take it that what you quoted is as far as you read, because I explained this further after I made that statement. So I'll say it once again: YES, not every single person who physically owns the Firefly DVDs will see Serenity in the theater. HOWEVER, this is offset by the number of people who don't own the DVDs who WILL go see Serenity--people who have friends or family who own the DVDs.

My statement that there will be a Serenity ticket sold for every Firefly set sold isn't a stretch of logic by any means--it's a very simple and obvious balance of variables if you take the time to think about the situation and the way the fanbase has expanded--but people are reacting to it like I'm saying the Tooth Fairy really exists.

RaraFemina

You also have to take into concideration people who will see it more than once. The die hard fans will see it several times. If you look at the Browncoats message board, there are over 40,000 people registered, I am sure there are a lot there that will see it more than once. Including myself, I know about 10 people who will see it at least twice.

Duder

As I've seen the series probably 5 times now, I'm sure I'll see Serenity at least twice in the theaters as well.

Jackskeleton

I've already seen it four times. a few more wont hurt.

maingon

well they signed to do 3 movies, so if the first one does well at least we will get sequels

Matthew Chmiel

They signed on to do two more ON THE CONDITION that Serenity makes a profit well enough to Universal's liking.

Serenity is not a Land of the Dead-type gamble where you have the film's production paid for via other sources and all Universal had to do was foot the bill for the marketing. Universal has already put $40 million of their own money on the line to produce Serenity and will probably put in another $20-30 million or so to push the film.

For one to get "Serenity 2" with a budget similar (or maybe a bit more) to that of the first film, the flick would probably have to clear around $75 million during it's theatrical run.