I reluctantly picked Madagascar, before I scrolled down to see the friday numbers too.

I haven't heard anything about Cinderella Man, so I dismissed that against the three strong contenders from last week. ROTS was a week older, but the other two had bad word of mouth (from what I've seen Longest had better word of mouth, but Rotten Tomatoes says otherwise). Finally just went with Madagascar becuase it's a kiddy/family movie, which I thought would have better legs.

If it hasn't been established enough already, YARD is an audience picture.

Saturday estimates are popping up and it looks like Madagascar is indeed going to take the weekend with about $27-28 million.... Cinderella Man somewhere around #4.

Saturday Estimates

MADAGASCAR 12.1 93.0
LONGEST YARD THE 10.8 89.8
STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH 10.7 300.8
CINDERELLA MAN 7.5 13.6
SISTERHOOD OF THE TRAVELING PANTS, THE 3.8 11.4
MONSTER-IN-LAW 2.2 68.9
LORDS OF DOGTOWN 1.9 4.6
CRASH 1.3 40.0
KICKING & SCREAMING .8 46.7
UNLEASHED .3 23.3

Weekend...

1 Madagascar $28,700,000
$100,968,000

2 The Longest Yard $26,100,000
$95,804,000

3 Star Wars: Episode III $26,000,000
$308,805,000

4 Cinderella Man $18,615,000
$18,615,000

5 The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants $10,245,000
$13,987,000

6 Lords of Dogtown $5,700,000
$5,700,000

7 Monster-in-Law $5,300,000
$70,385,000

8 Crash $3,300,000
$40,966,000

9 Kicking and Screaming $2,102,000
$47,511,000

10 Unleashed $890,000
$23,604,000

Tad lower than expected for "Cinderella Man." I didn't expect it to be #1,(despite its' great reviews/early WOM, it didn't seem like a movie that screamed "must be seen immediately", particularly given that the majority of its' target audience is over 30) but I did think it would pull in over $20 mill. for the weekend.(It might be closer to that once the actuals are in) It would still be a surprise to me if it doesn't end up having very good legs and doesn't wind up crossing over $100 mill. by the end of the summer.(Think "Seabiscuit" and/or "Road to Perdition" for a recent example of how it should do performance-wise)

Looks like we won't know whether Sith or TLY took #2 until actuals come out tommorrow.

I wonder if "Sith" and "Yard" will switch places in the final tally. Pretty close.

Surprising "Cinderella Man" didn't do better, although $18 million isn't shabby.

Yahoo is ALREADY calling it a "disappointment."

It'll probably make the same amount next weekend too.

Come on! Crash passed the $40 million mark this weekend.

not bad for Cinderella, it's in 1,000 fewer theaters

Um, yes it is. For a summer release, 18 mil is piss poor. However, I do believe it will have some legs. I agree it is a Seabiscuit type film that will survive (or perhaps thrive) on word-of-mouth. It's apparently a pretty good flick and might take a while to find an audience.

I wouldn't call it piss poor, more like disapointing. If the film had grossed in the 25-30 million range this weekend, it would've been fantastic. But I suspect, as has been said, it'll have legs, and that was the hope of the studio to begin with. Nobdoy expected this to open like the other summer blockbusters.

That many people saw The Longest Yard? Star Wars will still pull it out today.

so who has a source...

I voted star wars...suprised it didn't eek out another weekend so far

18 million for it is a bit low. Especially considering how last week's sneak preview of it really built up a bit of an expectation for the film.

Indeed.

Wait until next week before you call it DOA.

$18 for Cinderella Man is more than I thought it would get. I'm not surprised it didn't do huge numbers. Who cares what reviews say. When people see ads for it they see a boxing movie. If you are not interested in boxing, why would you go? I know I won't see it since I can't stand boxing stories.

The stars and the historical romance angle were also heavily promoted.

I threw my money into The Cinderella Man gross this weekend. A bit lower than I had figured as well, but has the potential to stay in the theaters awhile.

This flawless logic also works on other movies.

-If you are not into cannibalism why would you watch Silence of the Lambs?

-If you are not into archeology why would you watch Raiders of the Lost Ark?

-If you are not into news papers why would you watch Citizen Kane?

-If you are not into deserts why would you watch Lawrence of Arabia?

-If you are not into pianos why would you watch The Pianist?

-If you are not into submarines why would you watch Das Boot?

-If you are not into dead people why would you watch The Sixth Sense?

I'm guessing that you would be interested in the topics. Unlike these, mine was about if you are not interested in the subject.

Perhaps, but it needed to open better than this. Remember this is early summer and the heavy hitters are just now coming to bat. A movie like this should have been released in August after all the big guns were done (following Sea Biscuit's model). Being released now and opening to only a lukewarm reception means CM stands a good chance of getting lost in the shuffle.

Word of mouth had better be strong or this one will fall quickly. However, based on the reviews, word of mouth should be strong so it still has a chance. We'll see...

^^Yep, the cannibalizing season has begun.

Hey, if Jim Braddock starting eating on the ear of Max Baer, I might have gone to see Cinderella Man.

I'm really surprised by The Longest Yard. Sandler usually means money and it's a remake of a great flick, but I had no idea it would be so huge.