Your gut instinct was impossible mathematically. The film simply did not have enough screens to do that amount of money.

Its take of $26.6 million here, basically represents almost every seat being sold out for every show on its first day. Or about as close as is logically possible for a film to do.

From the article:

"Among all opening days, The Passion land at No. 9, but it reached No. 3 among all Wednesday bows, behind only The Return of the King's $34.5 million and Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace's $28.5 million and ahead of The Two Towers's $26.2 million and The Matrix Revolutions' $24.3 million."

Reloaded actually had a Thursday debut. But you are right, it didn't beat that one. I misspoke.

Still - It is on about half the number of screens as that film, will have a far higher per-screen average, and has a pretty good chance of beating its overall domestic and international box-office take, as well.

I think it making over $150 million is a major achievement.

Funny how no Hollywood studio would touch this film. Well, they're all kicking themselves now.

This film has low re-watchability (unlike Titanic), so if it gets within sniffing distance of $200 million, that's a good run.

My wife and I saw the film today at 1:30pm in a five hundred seat theater which boasts the largest non-Imax screen in the midwest. I counted 46 people leaving the 11:00am showing and there were about 50 at our showing. I was simply blown away by this paltry turnout. Granted, it is a weekday afternoon but when we saw RoTK at virtually the same time and in the exact same theater, also on the Thursday that was the second day of its release, the theater was sold out (or very near).

I know I live in the People's Republic of Madison but this is amazing to me. I think this film will have a very different box office in different parts of the country.

Edited for typo.

That's interesting, I would have forecast steeper returns in the midwest, and less interest on the coasts. It will indeed be interesting to see where it plays the strongest. But I will go out on a limb right now and say this will have a Titantic like run in certain theatres, I could easily see this in particular movie houses in particular areas until 2005.

I agree. Regardless of your beliefs, i can't imagine a rush to see this again and again.

Well, I have to admit Madison is probably not very representative of the entire midwest.

Agreed. I doubt there will be much repeat business on this film. It seems to be one of those must see films...but once only. Even among Christians this would be like watching a beloved family member die horribly over and over and over again. I personally could not sit through it more than once and I doubt many will.

I predict the film does very well for the first couple of weeks and then once everybody who wants to see it has done so, it will drop like a rock. I think 150 mil is optimistic. You must have repeat viewings to go much above that.

Hope I'm wrong. The film deserves to do well (and actually 150 mil is pretty good for a low budget independent).

Well, as a Christian, I can't wait to see it again. The content of this film is played out week and week, year after year in Churches around the world. Here is a living depiction to add dimension to the many stories, so I think it has lots of rewatchability.

Those seeing the gore are missing the point and not the audience of the film. To those that get the film, it's about the love and forgiveness in the face of these horrorific acts. The beating is part of the recognition of the sacrafice for all mankind. If you are a Christian.

I don't know what the rewatchability or repeat audience will end up being, but to my mind, I'd understand seeing this again more than I ever understood Titantic's repeat business. As time passes, it looks more and more like part of the zeitgeist of the time rather than some truly iconic film. To me it was a mediocre hour and a half preamble to a so-so action film. But never underestimate those teenage girls.

I will go see this again and again for many of the same reasons I saw Titanic again and again, and many different reasons.

First of all, as a filmmaker, to study the filmmaking, which was quite striking in many different respects. The movie is a stunning piece of art no matter how you look at it, and it is something I'll want to study over and over. Titanic was affecting its audiences in incredible, but different ways, as well, and it was also worth studying.

Spiritually, the film was quite powerful to me, too. And while I don't want to see this level of suffering "again and again", the spiritual message and power I drew from the film will be another dimension that will bring me back to the theaters multiple times.

I admit, however, I'm quite an atypical movie goer. I've even gone to films I DON'T LIKE multiple times for various reasons.



But I will go to see The Passion again and again for positive reasons. I know of others that also want to see it again, and are more "normal" types of film viewers.

I am not religious by any means, but I will be seeing this film again and maybe once more after that before it's run is over. It was powerful and moving and Gibson's commitment to the project is visible in every scene. Though the movie has flaws I can't help but admire his growth as a filmmaker since making Braveheart.


''See, mother, I make all things new''

And you're a man of taste - that scene and line is one of the most powerful things I've ever seen in a motion picture.

Wow! I guess I was wrong (even though I'm not the one being quoted).

Maybe this film will break 200M...

I guess that would be me that's wrong But i guess we'll see what happens. While i'm agnostic, i do recognize the power of the movie, although i'm surprised at the reaction.

To those retorting they will see this again...I think you're missing the point. While I agree there will be many who will see this film again, do you honestly feel this film has the repreat business potential of Titanic, or Star Wars? I say no. While of course the movie will continue to make money, it's not going to have amazing legs. There is an enormous interest in this film manifesting itself in enormous opening weekend grosses. Most of these people will not be returning for a second helping, myself included (liked the movie, just not something I need to spend 9 bucks to see on a big screen again). So while this film will sport repeat business, I imagine the controversy and public interest are resulting in massive opening weekend numbers. Only a portion of that audience will have any interest in seeing this again. I feel most people will be satiated with one viewing.

The 26.5 million The Passion earned includes special screenings on monday and tuesday to the tune of 3 million dollars. So, really, that difference in negligible.

Good point about different parts of the country. Over here in San Fran, you won't have any problems finding a ticket here

Saw it at 10 PM in LA. The theater was maybe a third full. I agree that this won't have legs in that for many religious people it will probably be quite overpowering, and for non-Christians it is a one time view (I must stress IN GENERAL). Also, the people here who say they will see it two or more times again are not typical moviegoers (this IS a DVD forum, after all). I think Mel did the best he could to raise the controversy level so a lot of people would see it opening weekend (which is what Hollywood cares about these days), but as far as legs go, I doubt this will have it.

WOW, I feel so silly for saying this after all these posts. However, I believe it's going to be one of the most rewatchable movies in history. I think people are forgetting the impact of religious emotions. Christians are going to want to take people to this. People that normally wouldn't go will be dragged to it by those Christians. I was a film production major for the sole purpose of one day being involved in a "Jesus" movie just like this. They did away with the major and I became a business major instead.

This was way back in '90 when I predicted that someday there would be a Jesus movie showing the crucifixion as close to real as possible and that it would have to have an R rating. I also predicted that it would set box office records. So far, I've been right.

I predicted two other things that have not happened yet.

That it would be one of the most rewatchable films in history (the video sales will be crazy).

That it would open the door for a massive influx of "Christian" movies and filmaking by mainstream producers, directors, and actors. That will happen for sure. Hollywood is after the almight buck and they can't ignore it anymore (Christian films make the bucks).

Of course, rumor has it already that Spielberg is now interested in "Piercing the Darkness." C.S. Lewis's Chronicles of Narnia makes its debut next summer. (Both books are 100%, without argument, Christian)

Anyway, maybe I only got it half right, since half of what I predicted has come to pass. I just wish that I would have know you could buy stock in movies!

I'm posting this from my original thread since it's basically the same topic and saves space:

I was comparing the potential of The Passion with three recent blockbusters.

Pirates Of The Caribbean
US Total 305 Million
Worldwide 652 Million
Budget Costs 125 Million

US Profit 240%
Worldwide Profit 522%


Titanic
US Total 601 Million
Worldwide 1.8 Billion
Budget Costs 200 Million

US Profit 301%
Worldwide Profit 900%


ROTK
US Total 362 Million
Worldwide 1.1 Billion
Budget Costs 94 Million

US Profit 386%
Worldwide Profit 1,170%

And It's still going WOW!!


Now, with these numbers, the Passion with an initial budget of 25 million would have to gross the following to compare.


Pirates
US Total Comparison 60 Million
Worldwide 130 Million

Titanic
US Total Comparison 75 Million
Worldwide 225 Million

ROTK
US Total Comparison 97 Million
Worldwide 293 Million

Jesus, have you finally returned to us???

Well, I think your first statement is incorrect. While I'm sure the film will be rewachable to many, the general public that is making this film so big right now isn't going back to this over and over. Yes, some will, and I imagine many christians will see this many a time.

But...your second statement about home video...I do agree with. This film will have very high video sales. That I will not argue with at all.

But I think to credit this film for the creation of the Narnia films is...at best...wrong. You can thank LoTR for that. They've been in production for over a year or two, and are a direct response to the success of lord of the rings. While they are christian books, they aren't overtly christian, and I imagine the movies will dilute that very much.

Let's be honest...there isn't as wide a market for Christian films as this movie may make it seem. Everyone and their brother is going to see this...many for religious reasons, but many because it's a controversial, violent, Mel Gibson directed film. I have no interest in Christian cinema, but I did go to see this. I imagine that many others would say the same.

Not that I think this success spurning more film in the Christian line is a bad thing. It will, and I think that's great. Just don't expect mega hundred million dollar grosses for all Christian related films.

Maybe I'm missing the point that you're making. What do you mean "to compare"? Strictly from a percentage / profitability stand-point?

I think this might not actually result in ANY big Christian films. Hollywood considers some things flukes. Let's not forget this film WAS directed by Mel Gibson, a worldwide star, and that the success was a result of selective premarketing and extensive overhyped controversy. Mel even helped fan the flames. I don't think Hollywood wants to have to do that over and over.

I agree that Hollywood will jump on a bandwagon for a quick buck, but I don't think Hollywood considers a quick buck to be found in explicitally Christian films, even after the success of this film.