DVD Talk Forum - Box Office Estimates for 1/16-18/04

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Box Office Estimates for 1/16-18/04

Code cut and pasted from BoxOfficeMojo:

<table border=0 cellspacing=1 cellpadding=7 bgcolor="#ffffff"><tr><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">TW</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">LW</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Title (Click to view daily chart)</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Studio</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Weekend Gross</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">% Change</td><td colspan="2" bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Theater Count/Change</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Average</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Total Gross</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Cost*</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Week #</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">1</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">N</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=alongcamepolly.htm">Along Came Polly</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffff99">Uni.</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$27,647,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">2,984</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$9,265</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$27,647,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$42 / $20</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">2</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">2</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=bigfish.htm">Big Fish</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">Sony</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$10,400,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-24.7%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">2,514</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">+108</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$4,136</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$37,950,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$70 / $25</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">6</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">3</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">N</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=torque.htm">Torque</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffff99">WB</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$10,265,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">2,463</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$4,167</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$10,265,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">- / -</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">4</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">1</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=returnoftheking.htm">The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">NL</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$10,200,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-28.2%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">3,003</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-529</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$3,396</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$326,793,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$94 / $50</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">5</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">5</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">3</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=cheaperbythedozen.htm">Cheaper by the Dozen</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffffff">Fox</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$8,750,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-25.5%</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">3,025</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-213</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$2,892</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$111,953,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$40 / $30</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">4</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">6</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">4</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=coldmountain.htm">Cold Mountain</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">Mira.</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$7,003,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-11.1%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">2,802</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">+500</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$2,499</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$65,024,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$78 / $25</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">4</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">7</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">5</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=somethingsgottagive.htm">Something's Gotta Give</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffffff">Sony</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$6,000,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-22.4%</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">2,502</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-374</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$2,398</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$100,961,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$80 / -</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">6</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">8</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">6</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=mybabysdaddy.htm">My Baby's Daddy</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">Mira.</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$3,655,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-51.6%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">1,448</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">+1</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$2,524</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$12,395,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$12 / $10</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">9</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">9</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=lastsamurai.htm">The Last Samurai</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffffff">WB</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$3,120,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-31.4%</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">1,403</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-498</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$2,223</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$101,996,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$140 / $30</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">7</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">10</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">12</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=calendargirls.htm">Calendar Girls</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">Dis.</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$3,054,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-18.3%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">967</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">+10</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$3,158</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$17,192,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">- / -</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">5</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">11</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">7</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=chasingliberty.htm">Chasing Liberty</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffffff">WB</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$2,765,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-54.5%</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">2,400</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$1,152</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$9,989,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$23 / $15</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">2</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">12</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">8</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=paycheck.htm">Paycheck</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">Par.</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$2,700,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-47.5%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">1,984</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-778</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$1,360</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$50,627,000</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$60 / $25</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">4</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">13</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">N</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=teacherspet.htm">Teacher's Pet</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffff99">Dis.</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$2,375,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">2,027</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$1,171</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$2,375,000</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">- / -</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">1</td></tr></table>

That's a pretty big opening for Polly, I was kind of expecting another Stiller bomb like Duplex or Zoolander. Guess people are ready for a comedy.

Polly doesn't surprise me, as every time the trailer played at our theater their were quite a few laughs. I am happily surprised Big Fish is holding on decently. And Last Samurai finally crosses the $100 mil mark, as does Something's Gotta Give.

Quote:

Originally posted by Sierra Disc
That's a pretty big opening for Polly, I was kind of expecting another Stiller bomb like Duplex or Zoolander. Guess people are ready for a comedy.

No way. Whoever did the trailer hit a comedy goldmine w/ that scene where Stiller is playing basketball and they slow-mo his face rubbing up against that fat hairy guy. I've seen the trailer 3 or 4 times, and I still laugh everytime I see it. That's what sells a movie.

How can the estimates be released so early when there is still a whole day of movie watchin left? I'll never understand it. It always seems pretty shady to me.

It's a formula, they already have the average amount of drop that sunday will have compared to a saturday take. You get an upset every now and then but once you get X and Y you cane guess what Z makes.. if that made any sense.

I wouldn't be suprised if Big Fish and Torque were overestimated and ROTK ends up higher once actuals come out...

Wow!!!
Along Came Ben Stiller made more in its first weekend that Samurai did.

Ahhh, the times we live in. ;(

Polly was great... not surprised.

-NiCK

Quote:

Originally posted by QuiGonJosh
I wouldn't be suprised if Big Fish and Torque were overestimated and ROTK ends up higher once actuals come out...

Yeah. Big Fish dropped last time also and it was estimated by a larger margin.

I expect ROTK to end up second.

Looking at the box office numbers for Zoolander, it didn't do too bad considering its budget (Made ~45, Cost ~28).

Well mine doesn't look as good as BoxOfficeMojo (though that's where I get my info, too! ;) )

<TABLE BORDER> <TH COLSPAN=9> Final Figures for Weekend Jan 16-19, 2004 </TH>
<TR> </TH> <TH> TW </TH> <TH> LW <TH> Movie </TH> <TH> Fri - Mon Gross (Millions) </TH> <TH> Pct. Chg. </TH> <TH> Total (Millions) </TH> <TH> Screens </TH> <TH> Screen Avg. </TH> <TH> Weeks </TH> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> N <TD> Along Came Polly </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $32.5 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> n/a </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $32.5 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,984 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $10,874 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 <TD> The Lord of the Rings : The Return of the King </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $12.4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -12.4% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $329.0 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3,003 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $4,145 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 5 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 <TD> Big Fish </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $12.3 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -10.7% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $39.9 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,514 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $4,907 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 6 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3 <TD> Cheaper by the Dozen </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $11.9 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1.0% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $115.1 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3,025 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3,925 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 5 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> n <TD> Torque </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $11.4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> n/a </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $11.4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,463 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $4,645 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 6 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 <TD> Cold Mountain </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $7.9 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 0.8% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $66.0 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,802 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,835 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 4 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 7 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 5 <TD> Something's Gotta Give </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $6.7 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -13.0% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $101.7 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2,502 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,686 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 6 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 8 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 6 <TD> My Baby's Daddy </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $4.4 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -41.3% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $13.2 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1,448 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3,062 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 2 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 9 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 12 <TD> Calendar Girls </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3.9 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 3.4% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $18.0 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 967 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3,995 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 5 </TD> </TR>
<TR> </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 10 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 9 <TD> The Last Samurai </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $3.7 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> -18.5% </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $102.6 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 1,403 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> $2,642 </TD> <TD ALIGN = right> 7 </TD> </TR>
</TABLE>

Chris

The estimates sure seem to have been awfully far off from the reality lately (Big Fish's #1, no it's not thing, then this week several switched places). Is this a trend or am I just noticing it lately?

Quote:

Originally posted by Sierra Disc
The estimates sure seem to have been awfully far off from the reality lately (Big Fish's #1, no it's not thing, then this week several switched places). Is this a trend or am I just noticing it lately?

Actually this time the estimates seem to be pretty on target. The second updated numbers are for friday through monday and include the holiday. Anyone have the official three day numbers?

Quote:

Originally posted by jaeufraser
Anyone have the official three day numbers?

Here's the Top 5...

<table border=0 cellspacing=1 cellpadding=7 bgcolor="#ffffff"><tr><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">TW</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">LW</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Title (Click to view daily chart)</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Studio</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Weekend Gross</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">% Change</td><td colspan="2" bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Theater Count/Change</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Average</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Total Gross</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Cost*</td><td bgcolor="#dcdcdc" align="center">Week #</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">1</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">N</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=alongcamepolly.htm">Along Came Polly</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffff99">Uni.</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$27,721,185</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">2,984</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$9,289</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$27,721,185</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$42 / $25</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">2</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="center">2</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=bigfish.htm">Big Fish</a></td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff">Sony</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$10,306,947</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">-25.4%</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">2,514</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">+108</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$4,099</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$37,858,198</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">$70 / $25</td><td bgcolor="#f4f4ff" align="right">6</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">3</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">1</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=returnoftheking.htm">The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffffff">NL</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$10,219,470</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-28.1%</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">3,003</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-529</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$3,403</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$326,812,102</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$94 / $50</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">5</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">4</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="center">N</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=torque.htm">Torque</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffff99">WB</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$9,970,557</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">2,463</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">-</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$4,048</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">$9,970,557</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">- / -</td><td bgcolor="#ffff99" align="right">1</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">5</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="center">3</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff"><a href="/movies/?page=weekend&id=cheaperbythedozen.htm">Cheaper by the Dozen</a></td><td bgcolor="#ffffff">Fox</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$9,001,374</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-23.4%</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">3,025</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">-213</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$2,975</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$112,203,507</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">$40 / $30</td><td bgcolor="#ffffff" align="right">4</td></tr></table>