Well, I'm probably one of the very few who think 'Shakespeare in Love' was better than SPRyan. I agree with your 1951 reference, though. Even more disgusting oversights:

1941: How Green was My Valley over Citizen Kane
1944: Going My Way over Double Indemnity
1952: The Greatest Show On Earth over High Noon
1968: Oliver over 2001: a space odyssey
1989: Driving Miss Daisy over Glory

WTF??

You'll find quite a few people around here who found <b>Saving Private Ryan</b> to be the most incredible war sequence ever filmed followed by a relatively uninvolving and pedestrian story. Good movie? Absolutely. Best director? Sure. Best picture of the year? Hardly. That's not a defense of <b>Shakespeare in Love</b>, which was also flawed in its own ways, but the point being that there was no clear favorite in that year, and no grand injustice. Personally, were I a voter, I'd have voted for <b>The Thin Red Line</b>, but it too is a flawed film. It's just one of those years. Hell, I'd argue that with the exception of maybe one or two films, all the Best Picture nominees in the 4 years since then (and at least 5 films from this year) are better (worst case, just as good) than all 5 of the nominees from 1998. Some years are like that, with a bunch of really good films, but none that are truly great through and through, and when that happens, it's really a toss-up. I don't find it that puzzling at all. Had <b>Elizabeth</b> won, then I'd be puzzled.

das

please... tell me your kidding...

-NiCK

I'm rooting for Divine Intervention to at least get a nom.

By some wacky Academy policy this film is now eligible for this year's awards!

You know I love "Divine Intervention", but I see next to no chance for it to be nominated. For one, the subject material will infuriate some. Second, it is a slow and nearly completely silently dark comedy, not the type that Academy goers care for.

In retrospect, it has a lot of commonality to "Songs from the Second Floor", though I much prefer "Songs", for obvious reasons ;)

I have slightly updated my predictions now - Patricia Clarkson kicks out Shoreh Aghdashloo from the Best Supporting Actress category. And we'll see how much traction my Seabiscuit prediction has.

Grim, for which movie....."The Station Agent" or "Pieces of April"?

Just curious das, why would you be puzzled had "Elizabeth" won? Do you think it's not worthy? I agree that it was a tough year and no clear favorites. But over time, I do feel "Elizabeth" is the best of the five.

I wouldn't find it undeserving, just puzzling. It didn't really have any hype, and I really don't think too many people had seen it. They certainly weren't talking much about it much. All the talk was about Blanchett's performance and the make-up/cinematography. There's usually a film or two every year that gets nominated for Best Picture on the strength of a performance but really doesn't have a chance to win. This was it for 1998. I'm not sure if I can articulate why, but it's just the kind of film that I wouldn't expect to win Best Picture. Again, not that it doesn't deserve it -- it's a fine film -- I would have just scratched my head in puzzlement had it won.

das

My predictions are on pg. 2 - it's for "Pieces of April" :)

D'OH! Sorry. I don't know how I overlooked that. Man, Clarkson is on a role lately. Isn't she? "Pieces of April" already left my city. So I'll have to catch it on DVD this February. BTW, would that be a good blind purchase? Anyway, if she's half as good in "Pieces" as she was in "The Station Agent", she should win. Damn, what a really tough year for supporting actresses.

Saw Cold Mountain tonight and Renee Zellweger should definitely get nominated for Best Supporting Actress - she was amazing in this film (and I usually can't stand her). If she wins, I will understand why.

Oh, why not...

Picture: Return of the King (nothing is stopping this)
Director: Pete Jackson
Actor: Sean Penn (Mystic River)
Actress: Charlize Theron (Monster) and this is one the Academy may regret in years to come as soon as she fails to make another good movie, ever.
SupActor: Tim Robbins (Mystic River)
SupActress: Ummm (I hated Renee Z. in CM- her worst performance ever)
Adapted Script: ROTK or Master and Commander
Original Script: Lost in Translation

Cold Mountain is not loved and has not been winning the critical awards necessary for Oscar success. ROTK, has...

What about Mel Gibson's "The Passion" is it coming out b4 the oscars and what are it's chances??

The film is not even out and I've read lots of contrevorsy surrounding it yet people who've seen an early cut (including the freakin' pope) say it's brilliant.

What's up with that?? :hscratch:

It's not being released until Ash Wednesday, 2004. So you still have a few months until it comes out - it's not eligible for awards until next year's Oscars.

My predictions:

PICTURE..............."Lord of the Rings: Return of the King"
ACTOR..................Sean Penn ("Mystic River")
ACTRESS...............Charlize Theron ("Monster")
SUPP. ACTOR........Ken Watanabe ("The Last Samurai")
SUPP. ACTRESS....Scarlett Johansson ("Lost in Translation")
DIRECTOR............Peter Jackson ("Lord of the Rings: Return of the King")

My Supporting Actor predition is of course a long shot, and he probably won't win. But neither will Sean Aston. Or Andy Serkis. I'm not really sure who is the front-runner right now.

We'll have to wait for the nominations, I suppose.

Having seen Cold Mountain, I think Renée Zellwegger has pretty much a mortal lock on Best Supporting Actress--she was superb in this movie. Mind you, I thought Zellwegger's performance overwhelmed Jude Law's and Nicole Kidman's performances in the movie, though. -rolleyes-

By the way, there is something that might conspire against Cold Mountain: many people in Hollywood are still upset that Miramax's Shakespeare in Love won over Saving Private Ryan, thanks to Miramax's extremely expensive marketing campaign that year. It was that marketing campaign that forced AMPAS to impose changes on marketing campaigns for Oscar nominees.

Here are the Producer's Guild noms:

Cold Mountain (Miramax Films)
Albert Berger & Ron Yerxa
William Horberg
Sydney Pollack

The Last Samurai (Warner Bros.)
Edward Zwick & Marshall Herskovitz
Paula Wagner & Tom Cruise

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (New Line Cinema)
Barrie M. Osborne
Peter Jackson
Fran Walsh

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
(Twentieth Century Fox)
Samuel Goldwyn Jr.
Duncan Henderson
Peter Weir

Mystic River (Warner Bros.)
Robert Lorenz
Judie G. Hoyt
Clint Eastwood

Seabiscuit (Universal Pictures)
Kathleen Kennedy
Frank Marshall
Gary Ross

Here are my predictions:

Picture: ROTK
Director: Peter Jackson
Actor: Sean Penn (Mystic River)
Actress: Charlize Theron (Monster)
Sup Actor: this is a very tough category but my gut tells me it will be Albert Finney (Big Fish)
Sup Actress: Renée Zellwegger

The biggest disgrace (IMO) was Kramer Vs. Kramer winning over Apocalypse Now.

Or how "How Green Was My Valley" beating "Citizen Kane."

Not that the Ford picture wouldn't have been worthy any other year.

Best Picture-LOTR- Return Of The King

Best Director-Peter Jackson

Best Actor-Bill Murray

Best Actress-Charlize Theron

Best Supporting Actor-Albert Finney

Best Supporting Actress-Renée Zellwegger

Let me chime in here and throw some recognition to a genre that was a surprise to the industry (and filmgoers): documentaries
I am very interested and keen on seeing on what films are nominated:

My favourite docu's (full length) were:

1. My Architect
2. Etre et Avoir (To Be and To Have)
3. Ônibus 174
4. The Fog of War
5. The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

I missed "Capturing the Friedmans" unfortunately, because of a NPR story that the DVD would be a longer cut of the film, and foolishly I thought the film would have been released before the end of 2003, alas.

"Spellbound" was also an excellent film.

This is a very tough year to pick, but I'll give it a shot:

Picture: Mystic River
Director: Peter Jackson
Actor: Paul Giamatti
Actress: Charlize Theron
Supp. Actor: Tim Robbins
Supp. Actress: Scarlett Johansson

Here are the just-released Director's Guild Noms:

Peter Jackson, ROTK
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Peter Weir, Master and Commander
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit

Which means that Anthony Mighella and Cold Mountain was snubbed! So much for it winning the Best Picture. However, I think that Minghella will still (barely) keep his directing nom at the Oscars.