"The Two Towers" opening weekend predictions
 

"The Two Towers": How much do you think it's going to make on opening weekend? The movie was still being edited up until a few weeks ago. Does anyone know the running time yet? My guess is it'll probably gross in the neighborhood of 60-75 million from that Wednesday (the 18th) through Sunday. You?

I give it 80 to 90 million from Wednesday to Sunday.

My wife watched the DVD and like it better than watching it in the theater. Now she wants to go see TT. I believe there will be lots of people who want to see TT now that they have watched it on DVD even thought they did not see LotR in the Theater.

70-75M.

Lots of people who want to see it, but at 3 hours, there are less showings, so less money.

I would say around 75-80M Wednesday to Sunday.

You're probably right. The DVD sales are pretty damn good. I think I have a better chance getting in to see the movie on opening night given it's a work and school night. Better than, say, on Friday or Saturday nights.

$81,302,467

:D

$77,777,777.77

Foregone conclusion that it will be #1 and make at least as much as FOTR did in its opening frame; but overall, completely unimportant, because unlike almost every other high-profile major movie it won't drop like a rock in subsequent weekends. The short word is "legs." The interesting thing will be to observe whether it has even stronger ones than the first movie. I think it's possible.

How come no one has started a "Who thinks The Two Towers will flop" thread? ;)

Because we're talking about "The Lord of the Rings" here, not "The Hot Chick" ;) Which sadly, will probably turn a profit. And I'm guessing that p.o.s. will gross anywhere up to 50 million or so. Like "Jackass".

I was alluding to the thread from last year asking who thought LOTR: TFOTR would flop (note winkie). A lot of people did (not me).

I know you were kidding. And remember that thread. Hence my winkie too. Say, that didn't sound right.

I'm guessing close to LOTR but slightly less. I know a lot of people that were disappointed with the first one so unlikely that they will be rushing to see it the first weekend or two. Final guess is 10% lower than LOTR the first week with about 20% less when all is said and done.

What kind of people were disappointed with it? DId they just find it boring or build it up too much in their mind? I know more people who were pleasantly surprised by LOTR:FOTR than were disappointed. I predict it will do about the same Friday thru Saturday, or maybe less since it faces competition from Gangs of New York. However, it will definitely have a bigger opening day than FOTR.

You really think "LOTR:The Two Towers" faces any stiff competition from"Gangs of New York"? I love Martin Scorcese movies, but they have been mostly critical hits and not box-office smashes. I think his most successfully film financially was "Cape Fear" at around 75 million.

A little bit of everyone from me that hadn't read the books before I watched LOTR and expected a great movie to others that read the books but aren't into movies so much that they read about it on the net for months and years before it came out, to those that read the books and expected something incredible. The movie was one of the better movies I saw last year, but wasn't great IMHO. Many people that I have talked to thought the same or even would give it a C+ at best. If I am free the first weekend it is out, I will go see it. If not, I will get around to seeing sometime in the first month. I think there are more people with my POV out there than those that must see it on openning day. I guess we will see soon enough.

I think about 40 - 45 million for Friday - Sunday.

i think 100 mill easy

My prediction is $30 million on Wednesday, and an additional $50 million Thursday through Sunday.

65 mm

I think Ketamine has it backward: the opening will be much stronger than LOTR, *because* people know what they're getting this time. They're not wondering, "Will it be great or will it suck?" I think people will be much more willing to go see it opening weekend (as is usual with sequels.)

An overall gross of 10-20% lower does sound perfectly plausible, though, unless the video version recruited a huge number of new viewers.

But who cares, frankly, so long as it does well enough to give Jackson the budget and freedom he needs to finish off the third movie?

After much deliberation ;), I predict that the Wednesday-Thursday take will be

$38.6 million

And for Friday-Sunday, I predict an additional

$54.2 million

For a five-day total of

92.8 million

[Edited to add...]
Oh, and by the way, people, PLEASE STOP REFERRING TO THE FIRST MOVIE AS LOTR. The WHOLE SERIES is LOTR. The first movie is FOTR.

Let's give the public some credit. The film was thrown together in one year to cash in on the success of the first one? No way it can be good. I even hear they are bringing back Gandalf (or is it his twin brother like in City Slickers 2 :lol:) and they are even adding a JarJar-type CGI character to appeal to the kiddies -rolleyes-.

This POS will be lucky to break $10 million.

Damn_studios :(

I bet they make a third one also to milk this series dry ;)

All three movies were filmed simultaneously, so there's no danger of the third film not making it to the theatres -- even if TTT doesn't make a dime.

Granted, I'm sure the success of FOTR gave Jackson a bit more leeway with the second film, and probably allowed him to go back and make the extended DVD version of FOTR, but from day one it was an "all three or nothing" deal.

FOTR made $860 million worldwide and who knows how much else with its DVD sales. The whole series has pretty much been paid in full at this point, and I don't see any excessive markleting from places like Burger King this time around either with great costs sunk into it.
In all honesty, TTT and ROTK just need to be released to make money.

Jackson has already started work for the extended edition of The Two Towers which will be released November of next year

:lol: at the people who predict a lower opening than FOTR.

Recall some interesting facts:

FOTR was #1 for 4 weeks. Virtually no movies manage to do that these days. The last one to be #1 for the recent record of 5 weeks, as an example, was The Sixth Sense way back in 1999. A movie does not stay #1 for 4 weeks unless people, generally speaking, love it.

FOTR played in theatres for 6 months. It only finally disappeared completely last summer. Film exhibitors do not let a movie play that long unless it does solid repeat business, and they love those types of films because the longer they play, the more of the revenue goes to the theater as opposed to the studio.

Factor in the extremely healthy DVD/video sales of both the regular and extended versions, and you have a guaranteed bigger than FOTR opening. The interesting question is will it outperform FOTR. This is unknown, although the conventional wisdom says "no," I think it's far from certain.

I doubt TTT will last past its first week at #1 with Catch Me If You Can opening with so much mainstream appeal. I hope I'm wrong, but you never know.

:lol: I just caught caught a quick glimpse of your post while scrolling down quickly and thought what :crap:er, until I scrolled up and saw who posted it... :eyebrow:

I hope this doesn't do well....the public should be more patriotic and not support a film that would try and capitalize on the 9/11 tragedy like the Two Towers....how they can live with themselves after giving it such a name is beyond me....I have organized a boycott here in my town and so far have enlisted a few supporters...help get the word out people!!!

rotfl
unless you were serious?? the two towers movie and book were made long before the twin towers were attacked.,

No dude, he's totally serious. As am I. I cannot believe that New Line and Peter Jackson would be so callous as to name their sequel "The Twin Towers", especially when I've heard that both towers are destroyed by the end of the third movie!

I guess the third film will be "LOTR: Revenge of Al-Queda". Disgusting. I for one, will not give my money to such insensitive trash.

...oh, and don't try to use books and facts to back up your story, them books are for smart people, and if I wanted to read, I'd go back to school.

:lol:

And, if people are stupid enough to waste their money on the third one, you know Jack$on will follow in Luca$ footsteps and make some lousy prequel. Of course, they'll just dumb down the prequel to make it more "kiddie-friendly." Couldn't you just imagine a bunch of singing dwarves? What do they think this is, Snow White? And it will probably only involve some lame supporting characters from the first trilogy that are already old, like that Bilbo guy, and maybe the old wizard geezer (what was his name? Gandolfo?). And, since we know they are alive in the first trilogy, there won't be any suspense of what might happen to them in the prequel. :rolleyes:

[Edited to add...]














:p :p :p :p :p :p :p

Hah! Hah! Nice try brizz. I took a look at your DVD collection and you seem to be someone more sophisticated than most and with an "awareness" of popular culture.

Unfortunately, there will always be people who are just ignorant buffoons who spew out $%@! without checking the facts and not have a sane or reasonable perspective.

Just look at all the morons who don't understand the appeal of widescreen or think DVD is a scam. :p

After 9/11, people want or need movies like LOTR more than ever.

I didn't go see LOTR last year in the theatre because I had never read the books so I didn't know much about it

Then I baught both dvd's (yeah I know I'm a sucker) and I thaught to myself this sh** is really good!!...Kind of made me wish i'd of seen it on a big screen

I will definitely be going to see TTT in the theatre to get the full impact!!

..And of course by both dvd's again next year

I think the next two will make both make for then Fellowship. Fellowship had a lot of setting up the story, which made it slow at times. Two Towers will be much more entertaining and I think more people will go out to see this when everyone will be talking about how much better it was than the first one. I know that after I get all the movies on DVD I will probably watch the last 2 more than the first.

I'm thinking that TTT may be the most popular of the three series.

I'm re-reading the books before next Friday (when I'll see TTT), and I'm amazed at how few really interesting things happen in the first book -- it's all just history and character development. The second book is where all the real "action" takes place, and where everything builds up to the climax. The third story just finishes out the story and character arcs.

Of course, if you think of it as one book (as it was originally written) it makes perfect sense. You define your characters, build to a climax, then resolve that climax. Of course, it's the climax and the building up to that climax that's the most exciting, so it would follow that the second book (and by extention, movie) would be the most exciting of the three.

Let's see... FOTR made about $28 million on Wed/Thur last year, then about another $47 million Fri-Sun on it's opening 5-day weekend for a grand total of roughly $75 million.

I think TTT will out due it for two reasons. One, the DVD has probably brought in more fans. Two, it's more action packed then FOTR was, thus the repeat viewings by action lovers will go up.

Here are my guesses:

Wed-Thur: $34 million
Fri-Sun: $57 million

Grand total: $91 million!!

What do I win if I'm right?